TCG inventory, part 2: when a card is worth grading

Raw or graded, worked through for two cards. Example data.

Part 1 of this series was about cost basis: what a card really cost you once grading, shipping and insurance are added. This part uses that number to decide the question every collector and seller runs into: send a card in for grading, or sell it raw.

The examples use made-up cards and US dollars. The method works the same in any currency, and it does not depend on which grading company you use.

The three numbers you need

To compare grading with selling raw, you need:

1. What the card sells for raw today, after selling fees.
2. The full cost to grade it: the grading fee plus your share of shipping both ways and insurance.
3. What it is likely to sell for graded, after selling fees, across the grades it could realistically get.

The first two are easy to look up. The third is where most of the guessing happens, so it helps to write the guess down as odds.

Card A: a strong candidate

Card A sells raw for about $60.00 in recent sales. The example seller assumes selling fees and shipping of 13% on any sale.

• Raw, after fees: $60.00 minus 13% is $52.20.

Cost to grade, using the per-card split from part 1: $25.00 grading fee plus $6.00 share of shipping and insurance, so $31.00.

Now the graded side. The seller looks at the card’s centering, corners and surface and writes down honest odds:

Card A, odds written down before submitting. Example data.

The expected graded sale price is $124.50. After 13% in fees that is $108.32. Take off the $31.00 cost to grade and the expected result is $77.32.

Compared with $52.20 raw, grading adds about $25.12 on average. It also tells you how much grading could cost before it stops paying off: $108.32 minus $52.20, which is $56.12. Any total cost to grade below that leaves you ahead on average.

Card B: a weak candidate

Card B sells raw for $20.00, so $17.40 after the same 13%.

The odds look different. The card has a slightly off-center print.

Card B, the best case looks exciting. Example data.

Expected graded sale price $30.20, after fees $26.27. Minus $31.00 to grade, the expected result is minus $4.73. Selling raw gives $17.40. Grading this card loses about $22.13 on average, even though a 10 would be worth more than three times the raw price.

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That is the trap with cards like this. The best case looks exciting, and the weighted average is what you actually get across many submissions.

Grade Card A, sell Card B raw. Example data.

What the odds depend on

The odds are your own estimate, and that is fine as long as you are honest and consistent. A few habits make them better:

• Write the odds down before you submit, then compare them with the grades you get back. After a few submissions you learn how optimistic you are.
• Use recent sold prices for each grade, rather than asking prices.
• Count the 8-or-lower outcome seriously. It is often the most likely result for cards with visible flaws.

Time and cash

Grading takes time, often weeks or months depending on the service level. During that time the cost to grade is paid and the card cannot be sold.

If you sell for a living, that matters. Money in a grading submission is money that cannot buy new stock. A small expected gain that ties up cash for three months can be worth less to you than selling raw today and reinvesting.

A simple way to account for it: only grade when the expected gain clearly beats the raw sale, by an amount you would accept for waiting that long. Many sellers use a fixed minimum, for example an expected gain of at least $15.00 per card.

A short routine

Before each submission:

1. Look up the raw price and graded prices from recent sales.
2. Write down your odds per grade for each card.
3. Work out the expected graded value after fees, minus the full cost to grade.
4. Compare with the raw sale after fees, and only send the cards that clear your minimum.

After the grades come back, record the actual grade next to your odds. That record is what makes the next decision better.

What comes next

Part 3 looks at sealed product: when a box is worth more opened, and how to move its cost basis onto the cards you pull.

If you want this in one place, our TCG Vault workbook includes a grading planner where you enter your odds, fees and values to see the expected value of grading against selling raw, plus your break-even grading cost. It also tracks raw cards, graded slabs, sealed product and grading submissions with cost basis and profit after fees. It works in Excel or Google Sheets.

https://sizerunstudio.gumroad.com/l/tcg-vault?utm_source=medium&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=tcg-md_inv2

Example data with made-up cards. The odds and prices are illustrations, not predictions. Not affiliated with any card game or grading company.