MLB Postseason Preview
MLB — Postseason Preview
Written By Evan Imbesi
A few weeks back, I wrote a blog discussing the current status of the MLB as it was nearing the home stretch of the regular season. This was when for the most part there were about 40 games remaining to be played by each team and with the exception of those combining for the lowest possible tier, everybody was competing for a spot in the post season to some extent. Fast forwarding to today, each team is now beginning or will begin their final regular season series within the next 24 hours and we pretty much know what the postseason is going to look like on both sides. A few twists and turns around the final corner have shaped October into what it will be and of course created interesting betting markets as well. Being that we are just under a week away, what better time to take a look back at some events of the past few weeks and discuss how we’ve arrived to where we are at? Not only have the final few weeks been entertaining, but they also provide some important insight that could help take on the books during the postseason. Let’s run through the markets and discuss some spots where I see value as well.
As of this past week, we know which teams will be competing in October on the National League side of the bracket. This is due to a win from the Cardinals over the Brewers which secured their place as the team holding the 2nd wild card spot. The Cards are coming into the postseason as the hottest team in baseball by far. This race was a battle that just 3 weeks ago consisted of several teams from across the National League. Amongst the bunch, the Cardinals were last to be mentioned in any post season discussion. This has since changed thanks to a 18 game win streak that was unfortunately snapped by the Brewers but not before they placed themselves amongst the top teams in the league. This insane hot streak or “run good” to put it into Poker terms has left no doubt about which team is deserving of the 5th playoff spot. Unfortunately for them, they’re going into an uphill battle in the postseason that starts right away. In the Wild Card game, they will be facing the World Series favorite Dodgers who are just 1 game off the best record in baseball. The only reason the Dodgers will be in this game in the first place is because as it sits, the Giants who are in the same NL West division currently hold the best record and #1 overall playoff seed. Despite a valiant effort from both the Mets and Phillies, the Atlanta Braves will be the ones edging out a division title in the NL-East and in the Central, It’ll be the Brewers representing with little resistance from their division competitors.
The betting markets on this side of the Bracket is pretty straight forward. Despite landing as the #1 Wild Card spot, the Dodgers are your shortest shot to win both the National League title and the World Series. This is followed up by their division competitor who in my opinion is absolutely worth making a small bet on to win the title. The Giants have been disrespected all year by the books despite carrying the best record in baseball for the majority of it and this is likely because coming into the season most experts were down on this team. Despite this, they have outperformed expectations during every step on the way yet the betting market has yet to adjust. The perception of playing in the same division as the Dodgers also might factor into the market prices but nonetheless, The Giants to take down the national league at nearly 3/1 is absolutely worth a look. The Giants winning the whole thing at 6/1 is worth an even harder look. Moving further down the betting board I can’t help but consider a small wager on the Cardinals at 10/1. The obvious justification for this would be to ride the hot streak, even though they’ve lost a game leading up to the playoffs. Fading out a field of multiple qualified competitors in the MLB to claim a postseason spot is certainly a confidence booster which in October, has a funny way of reflecting on the field. Digging a little deeper, I’d urge you to consider the pitching matchup that is going to take place in this game. When they face the Dodgers, St. Louis will be throwing Adam Wainwright who has not only had an outstanding year where the numbers are concerned, but also has the experience to back it up. With 17 wins and an ERA of just 3.06 over the span of 206 innings pitched, Wainwright will certainly give the Cards a chance against the Dodgers in the wild card game and if they succeed, who will be getting in their way from then on? I’d argue that if you think the Cards are hard to knock off the hot streak now, how much more difficult do you think it’ll be after taking out some of their best competition? Exactly. I’m not sure I can let 10/1 pass by. I’ve already backed them in round 1 at +190.
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The American League side of the playoff bracket got a bit more interesting down the stretch. While the NL seems to be a bit more top heavy with the best teams out in front by a wide margin, the AL saw teams vying for both Wild Card spots all the way down to their final regular season game. This was a race between 3 AL east teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays) who found themselves trailing the Rays in first place along with the Seattle Mariners who were attempting to sneak in from the pacific northwest. Within the last week of the season, all of these teams were within a game of each other and the list of tie breaker scenarios became very long and confusing. The Yankees held the lead for the first Wild Card spot by about a game and created this separation thanks to a sweep over the Red Sox a few days prior to their final series. Despite this, the Sox were able to finish with the same record as the Yankees (92–70) and hold the tiebreaker which means they’ve earned the first wild card spot and the game will be played in Boston. The Yankees won’t be left out of October baseball either though punching their ticket proved to be a little more difficult than I’m sure they would have liked. In the bottom of the 9th with runners in scoring position, it was Aaron Judge to deliver the walkoff infield hit, scoring Tyler Wade from 3rd. If not for this victory vs the Rays, the Yankees would have fallen a half game behind the Sox which would have tied them with the Jays at 92–71. Given that the Jays had the upper hand regarding the Majority of tie breaking scenarios, a loss would have ended the Yankees season. Instead the Jays will be packing it in early along with the Mariners who would have needed a lot of help to make it regardless of their final game outcome. It was a respectable and valiant effort from the Mariners, a written off team who hadn’t been this close to the postseason in 20 years but ultimately, the season would be ended with a 7–3 loss to the Angels and a 90–72 record. The division leaders on this side of the bracket were never really in doubt. The Rays, Astros, and White Sox all locked up their playoff spots pretty early, it was just a matter of who they’d be facing.
When I mentioned the NL as a “top-heavy” division, I did so in reference to the World Series champion betting board. The shortest shot on the board in this market is of course the LA Dodgers at 4/1. Nothing surprising here. However, depending on where you look, the next 3 teams are all listed equally at 5/1 and they happen to all be American league teams. This makes it difficult to find betting value on the American League side unless you feel strongly about either the Yankees or Red Sox at their respective prices. Again, depending on where you look you can find the Red Sox at a slightly shorter price than the Yankees but for the most part, they’re both listed pretty evenly at about 12/1. I personally don’t see any value here either but if you were to force me to wager on either the Yankees or Red Sox, I’d throw a little bit down on the Sox. I don’t feel the Yankees have the arms to go deep into the postseason like they may have been able to in previous years and the Red Sox season has consisted of numerous ups and downs. I’d place my bet, forget about it, and hope the Sox could catch a little October lightning in a bottle.
