CFP: Quarterfinal Preview
By Nick Grunewald
Intro
Round two of the College Football Playoffs kicks off later today as the quarterfinal matchups are set to get underway.
We had a dud of a first round as all four favorites won, and won big — all four games were decided by at least 10 points or more but the atmospheres on the four historic campuses more than made up for it. More football is more football; we loved it.
Now the remaining field is down to eight, and we’re set for four juicy matchups in the quarterfinals starting off tonight on New Year’s Eve and running into New Year’s Day tomorrow.
Let’s get into our picks for this round.
Fiesta Bowl: №3 Boise State vs №6 Penn State (-11.5) Tuesday Dec. 31, 7:30 EST, ESPN
Boise State and Penn State get things started on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl as the Broncos look to keep their magical season going.
Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty will be the star to watch after putting together an historic season that got him to New York as a Heisman finalist.
Jeanty totaled over 200 yards and three touchdowns in Boise’s early season loss to Oregon. Now he faces a defense that’s allowed under three yards per rush this season and held an explosive SMU offense to under 100 rushing yards in round one.
Penn State enters after smacking around the Mustangs in State College to a final score of 38–10.
While Boise has a future NFL back on their side, Penn State has two, and the Nittany Lions are hitting their form with them at the right time, as the two combined for 25 carries and 160 rushing yards.
Everyone is going to point to Boise’s close loss to the Ducks earlier in the season, but that was all the way back in September. I’ll take the Penn State defense to contain — not completely stop, but slow down — Jeanty’s impact on the game through four quarters and for the Nittany Lions to cover the big spread.
Pick: Penn State -11.5
Peach Bowl: №4 Arizona State vs №5 Texas (-12.5) Wednesday Jan. 1, 1:00 EST, ESPN
The Big 12 champion and SEC runner-up face off in the first of three New Year’s Day matchups.
Texas enters after a 14-point routing of Clemson, where the ground game dominated, as the Longhorns finished with 292 rushing yards.
While Steve Sarkisian’s group won by two touchdowns, defensively they’ll have to play better if they want to slow down this high-powered Sun Devils offense and one of the best players in the country, running back Cam Skattebo.
On the flip side for ASU, they got the final first-round bye after finishing as the fourth-highest conference champion.
I expect Arizona State to come out swinging early. Kenny Dillingham is a young, innovative coach who will find ways to get his playmakers involved.
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The biggest difference-maker for Dillingham’s offense is Skattebo. The electrifying back has amassed over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns this season — he’s gone for 140+ in three straight games to go along with eight scores.
But in ASU’s two losses, he was held to just 75 and 60 rushing yards. Texas will have to find a way to slow him down to get the Sun Devils out of their offensive rhythm.
Look for Arizona State to keep this game close as Dillingham will unload the playbook. But Texas should wear them down enough to win, just as they did against Clemson. I’m just not sure it’ll be by as much.
Game Pick: Arizona State +12.5
Rose Bowl: №1 Oregon vs №8 Ohio State (-2.5) Wednesday Jan. 1, 5:00 EST, ESPN
This rematch is going to be epic after these two put on what could be the game of the year back on October 12th in Eugene. Oregon squeaked out a 32–31 nail-biter in a game where both teams left points on the board.
Oregons went into the Big Ten and, in year one, took it over going undefeated through the season and winning their first conference championship.
The Ducks decimated the Buckeyes’ defense in their first meeting as Dillon Gabriel threw for 341 yards, averaging 10 yards a completion. That’s something we hadn’t seen happen to the Ohio State defense all season.
Only one other team had thrown for more than 200 yards (Northwestern, 201) while nine teams had been held to under 150 yards through the air — including Tennessee in round one (104 yards).
Now, Ohio State comes in with momentum after manhandling the Vols 42–17 a week ago in a game where everything looked to click. Will Howard finished 24/29 for 311 yards and two touchdowns, both to Jeremiah Smith, to go along with 109 receiving yards.
The Buckeyes looked like a completely different team than what we saw to close out the year against Michigan. So different that it has all the talking heads saying they’re the team to beat when they play like that.
Oregon will certainly have something to say about that. After all, they won the conference both these teams play in and beat them head-to-head earlier in the year. Oregon should have all the confidence heading into this one.
Game Pick: Oregon +2.5
Sugar Bowl: №2 Georgia (-1.5) vs №7 Notre Dame Wednesday, Jan. 1, 8:45 EST, ESPN
The final game of this round is a defensive showdown between Georgia and Notre Dame. The Bulldogs have had a few weeks off after winning the SEC, while the Fighting Irish are coming off a first round win over Indiana.
Marcus Freeman’s side looked every bit like a National Championship contender in round one against the Hoosiers with their smothering defense. Their offense was spearheaded by a 98-yard touchdown run early in the game that took all the life out of Indiana.
The Irish defense has been elite all season long but have dealt with injuries. This week’s no different, as they’ll be without Rylie Mills in the middle of their defensive line.
Georgia’s Gunner Stockton will get his first career college start in the Sugar Bowl as Carson Beck suffered a season-ending injury in the SEC Championship game and then subsequently declared for the NFL Draft.
A lot of pressure will be on Stockton in his first start, as Georgia’s run game has struggled to get going this season — they ranked 15th out of 16 SEC schools in rushing this season.
Notre Dame will have the advantage at quarterback with Riley Leonard under center and Beck out. The injuries to the Irish may force the Bulldogs into running the ball and taking pressure off their young signal caller–despite their inefficiencies.
We saw flashes of what could be from Stockton in the SEC championship game, but he never got the chance to truly showcase his talents. What we did see was the reemergence of junior back Trevor Etienne, who rushed for a season-best 94 yards and two touchdowns. He should see plenty of work in this one too.
I’ll take Kirby Smart and Georgia, in a big game — somewhere they’ve been plenty of times before — to overcome the absence of their starting quarterback and grind out a defense showdown with the Fighting Irish.
Game Pick: Georgia -1.5
