Who Would Have Thought?
Ankara, the capital of Türkiye, will host what is expected to be one of the most consequential NATO summits in the alliance’s history from July 7–8, 2026. Against that backdrop, it is worth taking a closer look at the country’s recent history.
From Empire to Republic
Declared defeated, partitioned, and thoroughly humiliated at the end of the First World War, the Ottoman Empire seemed destined for a disgraceful exit from the stage of history. That process began in 1918 when the Armistice of Mudros was signed aboard the British destroyer Agamemnon, anchored off the port of Mudros on the Greek island of Lemnos — an apt name for a destroyer presiding over the Empire’s defeat. Historians generally agree that the terms of the armistice effectively set the Ottoman Empire on a path toward dissolution.
What remained was a multiethnic society of Muslims, Christians, and Jews in complete disarray, uncertain about what lay ahead. Some resigned themselves to the prospect of colonial rule under the victorious Allied powers. Others left the country in search of a better future, with many emigrating to the New World, particularly the United States. Still others withdrew into themselves, uncertain of what the future would bring.
Yet, there were also those who chose to resist. Determined to defend their country and its independence against all odds, they resolved to fight — and, if necessary, to die — rather than submit to the occupying forces. On a personal note, my maternal grandfather, First Lieutenant Mehmet Cemil, who had already seen action against British forces in Basra in 1915, was one of these patriots, as were countless others.
As sometimes happens — almost miraculously — to societies standing at the edge of the abyss, a remarkable convergence of circumstances unfolded in Anatolia, a land of immense strategic and historical significance. Under the leadership of General Mustafa Kemal (Atatürk) and his fellow officers based in Ankara, the Turkish nationalists succeeded in defeating the occupying forces. After a grueling three-year War of Independence (1919–1922), they established a new state founded on an entirely new political order.
The Republic of Türkiye — comprising most of Anatolia and Eastern Thrace, with Hatay later incorporated in 1939 — emerged in 1923 from the ashes of the once-colossal Ottoman Empire, which had endured for 623 years. The former subjects of the empire were now united under the flag of the Republic, returning to the stage of history guided by a transformative principle succinctly articulated by Atatürk: “Peace at Home, Peace in the World.”
The Strategic Choice
Founded as a secular republic based on the rule of law and individual rights, Türkiye understood from its inception the defining realities of the modern age and resolutely turned its face toward modernity.
The Turkish government, led by Prime Minister Adnan Menderes (1899–1961) following the landmark 1950 election, played a pivotal role in Türkiye’s participation in the Korean War (1950–1953). As the country’s first democratically elected administration, the leadership viewed this intervention as a strategic opportunity to strengthen ties with the West and bolster the country’s bid for NATO membership. In February 1952, Menderes oversaw the landmark decision for Türkiye to join NATO, marking a historic turning point that reaffirmed Ankara’s commitment to collective security and regional stability. It signaled to the world that Türkiye had chosen to anchor itself firmly within the Atlantic Alliance.
Subsequent Turkish governments maintained this unwavering commitment to NATO. As a result, Türkiye became a strategically vital member of the alliance during the Cold War, anchoring and securing NATO’s critical southeastern flank.
More than a century after the Republic was founded, Atatürk’s maxim — “Peace at Home, Peace in the World” — remains the cornerstone of Turkish foreign policy. Yet, the turbulent neighborhood stretching from Ukraine and Russia to Iran, and from Gaza to Qatar, continues to test that fundamental principle almost daily.
Cyprus: The First Major Test
Türkiye’s commitment to NATO did not spare it from friction with its allies. Invoking its legal rights under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee — following a coup backed by Greece’s military junta that sought Enosis (the unification of Cyprus and Greece) — Ankara launched a military intervention on the island in 1974.
The operation drew widespread international criticism and culminated in a three-year United States arms embargo (1975–1978). This embargo served as a stark reminder to Ankara that alliance membership did not automatically guarantee political solidarity. Yet, Türkiye remained firmly within NATO, calculating that the alliance still provided the most reliable framework for its long-term national security.
Security Beyond the Alliance
The Cyprus crisis was not the only challenge to Türkiye’s security outlook. Beginning in the 1980s, the conflict with the PKK became one of the most critical security challenges facing the Turkish state. The armed campaign launched by the group — which Türkiye and much of the international community, including the United States and European Union, classify as a terrorist organization — led to decades of violence in southeastern Türkiye and profoundly shaped Ankara’s perception of border security.
Over time, this security issue became inextricably linked to political and military developments in neighboring Iraq and Syria. This evolution reinforced the conviction among successive Turkish governments that domestic security and regional stability were completely inseparable.
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A Changing Neighborhood
The collapse of the Soviet Union fundamentally altered Türkiye’s strategic environment but did not diminish its geopolitical weight. Instead, Ankara found itself bordering a vast region increasingly destabilized by ethnic conflicts, state collapse, terrorism, and intense competition over energy resources.
Stretching from the Balkans and the Caucasus to the Black Sea and the Middle East, Türkiye solidified its position as an indispensable geopolitical bridge between Europe and Asia.
Russia: Cooperation and Rivalry
Relations with Russia epitomize Türkiye’s pragmatic foreign policy. The two countries have expanded cooperation in trade, tourism, and energy while simultaneously finding themselves on opposite sides of proxy conflicts in Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus, and Ukraine.
Ankara condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, supplied armed drones to Kyiv, and firmly supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, yet refrained from joining Western sanctions against Moscow. At the same time, it carved out a crucial mediating role, facilitating negotiations that brokered the historic Black Sea Grain Initiative while continuously keeping diplomatic channels open with both sides.
Syria and Regional Security
No crisis has posed a greater security challenge for Türkiye in recent decades than the war in Syria. The conflict has brought millions of refugees across Türkiye’s southern border, enabled the emergence of terrorist organizations, and drawn regional and global powers into a prolonged struggle for influence.
Successive Turkish governments have maintained that stabilizing the country’s southern frontier is paramount to national security. This reality has prompted Ankara to conduct a series of cross-border military operations while managing complex diplomatic engagements with the United States, Russia, and other regional actors.
From Security Consumer to Defense Producer
This volatile environment fueled one of the most striking transformations of modern Türkiye: the rapid development of its indigenous defense industry. For much of the Cold War, Türkiye relied heavily on military technology supplied by its allies. Today, it has become an increasingly vital producer of advanced defense systems, particularly in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and aerospace technologies.
Turkish-made drones have become one of the most visible symbols of this transformation. Systems developed by Turkish defense companies have demonstrated their capabilities in several conflicts and have attracted widespread international attention, turning Türkiye into a significant player in the global unmanned systems market.
Beyond drones, Ankara has pursued ambitious aerospace initiatives, including the development of the indigenous fifth-generation fighter aircraft, the KAAN, and the unmanned combat aerial vehicle, Kızılelma. These programs reflect a broader, overarching goal of achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense technology.
This industrial transformation has also been accompanied by expanding defense cooperation with a number of countries. Türkiye has deepened its military-industrial ties with partners such as Italy, Spain, and Ukraine, ranging from naval technologies and aerospace cooperation to joint development projects. These partnerships indicate that Türkiye increasingly seeks not only to purchase defense capabilities but also to actively participate in their design, development, and production.
The question of Türkiye’s future role within the Western security architecture remains closely linked to its relationship with the United States. The dispute over Ankara’s removal from the F-35 program, following its acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, has been one of the most significant strains on bilateral relations. There is a growing expectation that this issue could receive renewed attention during the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, potentially creating an opportunity for fresh dialogue and a possible resolution that would strengthen cooperation between the two allies.
For Türkiye, however, defense independence is not merely a matter of military technology. It reflects a deeper historical experience: a country that emerged from the collapse of an empire, fiercely determined never again to find itself without the means to defend its sovereignty.
Türkiye’s Balancing Act Today
Today, Türkiye occupies one of the most complex strategic positions in the world. It remains a committed NATO ally while maintaining an active dialogue with Russia; a candidate for European Union membership while pursuing an increasingly independent foreign policy; and a rising regional power seeking constructive relations across the Arab world, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Africa. This complex balancing act is not without controversy, but it reflects a deep geopolitical reality that has shaped Turkish statecraft since the founding of the Republic.
When NATO leaders gather in Ankara next month, they will be meeting not merely in the capital of another member state, but in a country whose unique geography and societal resourcefulness have repeatedly placed it at the crossroads of global history. More than a century after the Ottoman Empire appeared destined to disappear from the world stage, Türkiye once again finds itself at the center of some of the international community’s most consequential strategic calculations.
Who would have thought?
