Padel Is Not the Next Pickleball and That’s a Good Thing
Inside the push and pull behind padel’s growth
I’ve spent the past year on courts across the East Coast, playing padel, meeting the people behind it, and watching the sport try to find its footing. There’s a lot to be excited about. But there’s also a growing gap between what’s happening on the ground and the story people keep telling — especially when that story tries to frame padel as the next pickleball. It’s a compelling headline. It’s also misleading.
From Manhattan to Miami, you constantly hear padel is the next big thing. Investors say it. Influencers post it. Operators are betting on it. Some call it the next pickleball, the heir to America’s fastest-growing sport and a rare early-mover opportunity. It sounds bold. It also sounds off.
I say that as someone who plays regularly and has spent the past year inside clubs across New Jersey, New York, and Miami. I’ve watched the sport spread, and I’ve watched the narrative move even faster. From what I’ve seen, we’re overestimating how many people actually play, misunderstanding how communities grow, and forcing comparisons to a sport with completely different economics. Calling padel the next pickleball is like calling squash the next ping pong. Different games, different dynamics, different worlds.
The Illusion of Mass Adoption
People often point to Miami (for good reason!) as the center of padel in the U.S. But one of the most common misconceptions I hear is that “everyone is playing.” Step inside one of the clubs they’re referencing or scroll through padel Instagram, and you’ll see a familiar mix: athletes, celebrities, influencers, and a wave of young professionals.
That visibility creates the illusion of scale. In reality, most cities have a small group of dedicated players rotating through the same leagues and courts. Even in Miami, padel isn’t part of the city’s cultural fabric. It lives in a more selective layer shaped by time, access, and disposable income.
The contrast is even sharper in New York and New Jersey. Many courts sit empty during the day. Setting up games can be a challenge. Outside a few evening time slots, bookings are thin. The padel community isn’t mainstream; it’s niche, highly visible, and clustered. If we’re serious about growth, we need to stop conflating it with exposure.
Clubs Are Not Printing Money
Another common myth is that padel clubs are wildly profitable. A few standouts may appear that way from the outside, but their stories aren’t typical. Most newer clubs are already adjusting expectations and looking for more sustainable models.
Discounted leagues, open play sessions, and daytime freebies aren’t just community perks. They’re essential tactics for keeping courts from sitting empty. Many clubs are rethinking their original pricing models not because demand is rising, but because it’s softer than projected.
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In the early stages, it’s easy to assume court bookings will carry the business. When that doesn’t hold up, the model shifts toward clinics, social events, and anything that builds repeat participation. It’s a smart pivot, but it also underscores a deeper point: bookings alone aren’t a strategy. Growth depends on structure, creativity, and a real understanding of how to build community.
Adding Courts Doesn’t Create Demand
You’ll often hear that padel needs more courts to meet rising demand. But in most cases, that demand is overstated and highly localized. Just because Ultra is full on a Tuesday night doesn’t mean a six-court facility five miles away will thrive. Affluent players tend to prioritize premium environments and familiar locations. They’re not likely to drive farther or downgrade just to play. And for players looking for lower-cost options, padel still isn’t cheap enough to play often.
A better way to measure real demand isn’t by looking at peak hours in elite clubs — it’s by seeing whether smaller, no-frills facilities are drawing consistent traffic across the week. In many markets, they aren’t. Building a new club in a cold market, even with multiple courts, doesn’t guarantee growth. Without community depth, expansion just leads to emptiness.
Padel Is Not Pickleball… and That’s a Good Thing
The most persistent — and most misleading — idea is that padel is following the same path as pickleball.
Pickleball took off because it’s accessible. It’s inexpensive, easy to learn, and played on public courts across the country. Padel is none of those things. The courts are costly to build and maintain, need more space, and attract a smaller but more premium-paying audience. Free padel courts are virtually nonexistent in the U.S., and there’s no realistic path to public funding.
Even the mindset is different. Most pickleball players won’t pay more than $10 per person to play. Padel players in top-tier clubs often pay four times that — and don’t blink. That gap isn’t a problem. It’s part of what defines the sport. Lowering the price point too much not only risks weakening the brand, but makes it financially undesirable for the real estate footprint padel requires.
Founders Make or Break It
One pattern that’s hard to ignore: the clubs that succeed often have founders who are deeply embedded in the sport. They’re not just investing capital; they’re investing time, energy, and personal belief. These are the people who are on the court themselves, building relationships with players, troubleshooting problems in real time, and setting the tone from the top.
Padel is not a gym. It’s not a franchise you can copy and paste. It’s a community-dependent business where trust and culture drive participation. A founder who loves the game brings an energy that trickles down to their staff and members. That team becomes the glue — helping fill in last-minute games, making new players feel welcome, and teaching the sport with genuine enthusiasm.
When that leadership is missing, it shows. The environment feels transactional. The courts sit empty longer. The momentum never quite builds. A passionate founder isn’t just a nice-to-have; in padel, it’s one of the strongest competitive advantages a club can have.
Bookings Alone Are Not a Launch Strategy
A lot of new operators assume that once the courts are open, the bookings will come. But that’s not how community sports take root in the U.S.
The clubs that succeed don’t just open the doors and wait. They start with drop-in events, social mixers, charismatic coaches, and founders who are actively part of the scene. They build trust and energy first. And when that sticks, growth follows.
Slower Is Smarter
Padel is a beautiful sport — social, strategic, and visually sharp. It deserves to grow. But that growth has to come from clear thinking, not borrowed hype.
It won’t rise by copying a different sport or chasing quick wins. It’ll grow because enough people cared enough to build it right.
