Strikers for sale?
Goals win games. Ideally, strikers score, or at least help their teams score (looking at you, Marco Urena) goals. MLS teams tend to fill their striker spots with higher price tag players, generally DPs or TAM players. Every team that hasn’t solidified the position is looking to fix that, either on the international market or through trades. Recently two teams have turned to trades in an attempt to fill their striker needs.
Recent Trades
FC Cincinnati acquired Fanendo Adi from the Portland Timbers for $450,000 in GAM and $400,000 in TAM. There are potential add-ons up to $100,000 in TAM and a percentage of any sell-on, but for our purposes, we’re focusing on that base fee. That move, which generated headlines all over the league, was absolutely a statement of intent by FC Cincinnati who made the DP striker their first signing ahead of their expansion season next year. It didn’t hurt that Adi had quite the memorable curtain call during his last appearance as a Timber.
In a smaller move, the Columbus Crew acquired Patrick Mullins from D.C. United for $150,000 in TAM.
Performance
To try to keep this simple, the only metric I looked at was xG+xA/90. Since 2015, Adi has played almost 8000 MLS minutes, and during that time his xG+xA/90 is .65. One cause for concern is that his xG+xA/90 has declined the last two years, but he’s firmly in his peak (27), and, as his game relies more on strength than speed, he might age gracefully.
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Mullins has about 3500 minutes since 2016 and a .61 xG+xA/90 mark in that time. Mullins, a year younger than Adi, missed significant time due to injury last year and had fallen behind Darren Mattocks on the depth chart this year. The acquisition of Wayne Rooney made him expendable.
The league average xG+xA/90 for strikers since 2015 has been .48, so both Adi and Mullins have been above average strikers.
Why the huge difference in value?
Pedigree probably plays a big role in determining the difference in value. Mullins played college soccer while Adi was a relatively high profile transfer from FC Copenhagen. Consistency is also a likely factor. Adi has played at least 2000 minutes in every full season he’s been in MLS, racking up at least 12 combined goals and assists in each season. Mullins has struggled to get on the field, never reaching 1400 minutes in a season, and never exceeding 11 combined goals and assists. That being said, it’s hard not to think Cincinnati might have overpaid for Adi while Columbus might have found a bargain in Mullins.
3 Potential Trade Targets
Diego Rubio — It looks as though Rubio is behind both Daniel Salloi and Khiry Shelton in SKC, but there are reasons to believe he would be solid pickup for a team in need of a striker. In almost 1500 MLS minutes, his shot quality has been above average (.16 xG/shot), and he’s attempted almost 3 shots per 90. Additionally, he’s been a decent creator, contributing over 1 key pass per 90 and .16 xA per 90. There are rumors that SKC is looking to pick up another striker before the close of the window; if they do, Rubio might be available for a price tag similar to that of Mullins’.
Cristian Colman — Don’t laugh. He certainly had a rough start to his MLS career, but his underlying numbers are strong. In about 1500 minutes, he has gotten off 3.3 shots per 90 (league average for strikers is 2.4) and has put a solid xG+xA mark of .56. He’s almost certainly available. Maxi Urruti has been starting over him most of this year, and Dallas just acquired Dominique Badji as part of the Kellyn Acosta trade. His salary is relatively high ($585,000, according to MLSPA), but that should bring the asking price down a bit as Dallas will want the salary relief.
Corey Burke — There are some small sample concerns here, and he might not be quite as available as the two players ahead of him on this list, but in limited minutes (544), Burke has been producing strong underlying numbers. He’s shooting a ton (4.3 shots/90) from decent areas and been more active defensively than I would have expected. The salary budget number makes him very attractive for budget conscious teams($67,500 according to MLSPA), and his .67 xG+xA/90 is excellent. Kei Kamara is one spot above him; Nemanja Nikolic is one spot below him. Being book-ended by Golden Boot winners ain’t bad.
Data from American Soccer Analysis
