Northern Michigan’s Ideal Final Weekend
The Northern Michigan Wildcats have a lot left to play for in the final weekend of the regular season. While they have clinched a spot in the WCHA playoffs, they have not yet clinched a home-ice spot in the quarterfinals, nor do they know yet who their opponent will be.
The Wildcats followed up a disappointing series against Bemidji State with a sweep of nationally ranked Lake Superior State, and a Cappo Cup Trophy last weekend. This was a good turn around that the Wildcats badly needed, but the question remains whether or not they can build off that success and carry it over to their final weekend against their top rival.
Control What They Can
The one thing that the Wildcats can do to help themselves this weekend is to win both games against Michigan Tech. Earlier this season, they split the series against the Huskies. If they can win both games this weekend and earn six points, they will ensure that they will finish no lower than third in the league standings, and that the Huskies remain locked in sixth.
Keeping an Eye on the Other Series:
While the top priority for the Wildcats is to win their games and earn six points, they can get some help from some other teams as well. There are four other series going on in the WCHA this weekend, and almost all of them have at least some possible implications for the playoff tournament and for NMU’s place in that tournament.
Alaska at Alaska-Anchorage
This is the one series that doesn’t matter in the slightest for NMU. The Nanooks are already locked in to seventh place and will be a road team during the playoff quarterfinals. Should NMU earn the second place spot, they will host Alaska next weekend at the Berry Events Center in Marquette. The home team Seawolves have had a rough season, so it would be nice to see them finish strong with a couple of wins over the Nanooks and earn the Governor’s Cup.
Bemidji State at Minnesota State
Should Michigan Tech get any points against the Wildcats this weekend, this series in Mankato suddenly becomes very important. The Beavers are currently two points ahead of Michigan Tech for the fifth seed. If Northern ends up in the third place, and the Mavericks beat the Beavers, then NMU will be hosting Bemidji State in the quarterfinal round, which is a daunting prospect considering the terrible job NMU did in Bemidji two weeks ago. While Minnesota State doesn’t have much to play for this weekend, they are still a very good hockey team and the Beavers will likely have a hard time winning against them. The ideal scenario for NMU in this series would be a split that keeps Bemidji in 5th place in the standings.
Ferris State at Lake Superior State
Ferris State is heading to Sault Ste. Marie this weekend to take on the Lakers. The Bulldogs are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread after splitting last weekend’s series against Alabama-Huntsville. They are currently four points down to the Chargers and are sitting outside the playoff picture in ninth place. If the Chargers earn any more than two points this weekend, the Bulldogs will be officially eliminated from playoff contention. While Alabama-Huntsville always plays tough against Northern Michigan, and the Wildcats would probably rather see Ferris State earn the eighth spot, the reality is that it likely doesn’t matter, as whichever team makes it will travel to Mankato and will likely lose that series to the Mavericks. Should the Lakers win both of their games this weekend, and NMU splits theirs, the Wildcats could drop into 4th place. Any points that Ferris earns this weekend will help the Wildcats.
Alabama-Huntsville at Bowling Green
While letting the Chargers into the playoffs is not ideal for NMU, getting second place is much more important. With Bowling Green two points ahead of Northern, any points the Chargers can steal will help, if NMU can win both of their games. Bowling Green has been splitting their past few series, so anything is possible. This is the most important series for NMU fans to be aware of this weekend.
The Ideal Situation:
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If everything goes perfectly for NMU and for fans in Marquette, this is how this weekend will look:
- NMU wins both games against Michigan Tech, finishing the regular season with 56 points.
- Ferris State sweeps Lake Superior State. The Bulldogs finish the regular season with 27 points, the Lakers finish with 47.
- Alabama-Huntsville gets two points this weekend, scoring in three-on-three overtime or a shootout in one of the games. The Chargers finish the regular season with 27 points, Bowling Green finishes with 56 points.
- Bemidji State gets at least 2 points against the Mavericks, ensuring that they finish in fourth or fifth place in the regular season standings.
- NMU earns second place over Bowling Green due to the WCHA’s tie-breaking procedure.
- Ferris State earns the eighth and final playoff spot due to the WCHA’s tie-breaking procedure.
Ideal Final (and possible) WCHA Standings:
- Minnesota State
- Northern Michigan
- Bowling Green
- Lake Superior
- Bemidji State
- Michigan Tech
- Alaska
- Ferris State
— — — — — — — — -
9. Alabama-Huntsville
10. Alaska-Anchorage
While ideal, the above scenarios are pretty unlikely to play out exactly in the way that NMU wants. In the best case scenario, NMU gets the second seed in the WCHA playoff tournament. In the absolute worst case scenario, they could finish as low as 5th and miss out on hosting a first round series entirely. There are in reality really only three teams who are likely opponents for the Wildcats in the first round.
Ranking NMU’s Possible Quarter Final Opponents in Oder of Preference:
- Alaska- If NMU can manage to earn the second place spot, they will host the Nanooks in the first round of the WCHA tournament. While not a sure thing, NMU should have a much easier time moving on to the semi-finals against Alaska than against any other team.
- Michigan Tech- Knowing the history of this rivalry, and the bad memories of losing to the Huskies in the Tournament championship game a year ago, no NMU fan is relishing the idea of playing against Tech two weeks in a row, but it would be preferable to their final probable opponent.
- Bemidji State- Of all the teams who are likely to finish in the fifth through eighth spot in the WCHA regular season standings, the Beavers should be the most dangerous team, and certainly the one most likely to end the Wildcat’s season. A quarterfinal matchup against Bemidji is the last thing that the Wildcats want heading into the postseason.
A Weekend Worth Watching
This final weekend of the WCHA regular season is bound to be an exciting one, with the final standings still in flux for all but three of the ten teams in the league. NMU controls their own destiny when it comes to hosting a playoff series, but they will need some help if they hope to earn second place in the regular season standings. Only two things can be known for certain: this will be an exciting weekend for fans of Northern Michigan Hockey, and it won’t be the team’s last weekend of the season.
