Forecasting with Moving Averages
Part 4 of Forecasting by Hand by Dr. Alvin Ang
Moving Average (MA)
How to Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD):
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
How to Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD):
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Formula for Simple EMA
How to Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD):
MSE vs MAD
MA has lowest MSE and MAD.
Other Types of Fitting Error
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE):
- Where et : Error (= Real Value — Forecasted Value)
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE):
- Where Y: Actual Real Value
About Dr. Alvin Ang
Dr. Alvin Ang earned his Ph.D., Masters and Bachelor degrees from NTU, Singapore. Previously he was a Principal Consultant (Data Science) as well as an Assistant Professor. He was also 8 years SUSS adjunct lecturer. His focus and interest is in the area of real world data science. Though an operational researcher by study, his passion for practical applications outweigh his academic background He is a scientist, entrepreneur, as well as a personal/business advisor.
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More about him at www.AlvinAng.sg.
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