Crypto is still in its own world, with PEPE sucking a lot of the air out of the room. Majors look…not great after last week’s chopfest, but still lean towards a mostly choppy week. For alts, I think BLUR into tomorrow’s announcement is probably a good play, with room to add more if ann is something meaningful (eg. tokenomics re-work). PEPE of course is still super strong, but as someone who sold too early I’m not really eager to chase it at 500mm mkt cap. I have a couple other smaller alt bags (eg BONK for meme coin szn + nice chart), but not trying to load up on risk right now with most alts lagging heavily & majors looking shaky.

ARB + basket of other L2s will be a great buy & hold into EIP 4844 (76 days from now?) if/when we get a real market-wide flush. Also really interested in NFT space as everything has gotten bombed out over the past several months. There’s not a ton out there that’s super interesting to me (the strongest performers in any rally will be new sets), but of what’s out there I think 4–5 digit ENS, Friendship Bracelets, and Trump NFTs (kinda) are decent buy & holds.

NFTs are probably the most interesting market segment to me right now, having shown sustained strength starting in December. A select number of existing projects (eg. Milady, extraordinarily strong & niche subculture) & new projects (eg. Createra, built-out gaming platform w/ a16z backing) have already done well this month, and I’m keeping an eye out for both solid new projects & older projects that have maintained relevance.

For alts, I’m still interested in three main themes: liquid staking, Arbitrum eco, and NFTs. For liquid staking, this narrative will likely slow cook until March, so will look to buy LDO & some adjacent plays (maybe CVX?) on dips. Arbitrum eco has a few small cap plays that I find interesting, namely RDNT (v2 w/ tokenomics rework). For NFTs, I’m mostly focused on the BLUR launch & how they structure the tokenomics; I’d be very interested to see what the value prop is for the token. Nftperp, though doesn’t have a token, is nonetheless a really interesting platform that’s gotten significant volume, so will be interesting to see what impact that has on the “spot” market for NFTs.

In crypto, the liquid staking/ETH unlock trade absolutely exploded, with LDO nearly doubling in a week and many other liquid staking governance tokens posting stellar returns. This weekend also saw some crazy short squeezes across a number of alts, though relatively little participation from majors. With these moves I think idiosyncratic strength in crypto is largely behind us and will likely be tethered to equities. My main focus right now is on NFTs & on-chain plays, as that’s where profits will likely continue to trickle down, as well as getting familiarized with the major themes & catalysts for the year ahead (liquid staking, Eigenlayer, and proto-danksharding, oh my!). As always, good luck!

In crypto, market is still ghastly quiet, but the advent of a new calendar year should inspire people to once again be forward-looking. The two meaningful catalysts on the horizon are the rumored Arbitrum token drop in Q1 & ETH Shanghai update (enabling withdraws of staked ETH) sometime in March. Liquid staking governance tokens (LDO, RPL, FXS, and SWISE) have moved over the past couple days on CT echo chamber whipping up this narrative, so maybe looking to add small on dips over next few days/weeks. Otherwise, not really clicking buttons, just doing light research, especially on Arbi eco so I’ll be ready if/when token announcement comes. Good luck!

For crypto, markets remain choppy & still lots of apathy on CT. These conditions are generally ripe for bottom formation. Most tokens are clearly at or near value levels, but I still strongly suspect the actual bottom is a fair bit away for most coins, including majors. My focus right now is on exploring new protocols & looking for any sort of meaningful innovation, as well as thinking ahead for the next several months’ major catalysts & themes. I’m aiming to have a more complete list of interesting projects & themes around New Years, as I’ve been spending most of my time lately away from the charts recharging. It’s clear that at this point in the cycle any new token driven by ponzi mechanics or memeability has very little upside, so would be cautious of projects that employ that playbook.

Crypto continues its mini-rally as speculative shorts cover amid low volumes & broader apathy. I am not buying into this rally and think we eventually revisit lows, but heavily favor doing nothing vs shorting. Narrative plays have shown to still work in this environment (eg. LINK staking, GMX + DYDX as anti-CEX defi trade). One narrative I like is APE. Staking site & precommitments go live tomorrow, and projected initial APYs are quite high (>100%), while BAYC & MAYC holders will need to buy in aggregate ~$500mm of APE to maximize their staking returns. While it’s unlikely anything close to that amount will actually be bought, there will be some marginal buying pressure from BAYC/MAYC holders once the site goes live & they realize their shortfall. Uniswap also recently saw a governance proposal to turn on a limited fee switch, though the revenues would go towards the protocol & public goods rather than tokenholders. This is likely to be a weaker narrative but will be important to watch for the protocol. Second Blur airdrop is also tomorrow; I’m excited to seeing how they structure the tokenomics; if it’s not some LR/X2Y2 ponzi mechanic nor has insane FDV then I could see the token doing well, especially with how much market share Blur has retained. Overall, still taking very few trades while spending most of my time away from the screen & researching what’s new out there, specifically some of the new defi offerings. Good luck!

For crypto, market is still quite listless, though there hasn’t been much of an extended post-FTX selloff. New FTX headlines are now just noise, no mkt impact. Traders still hunting for weakness amidst contagion rumor mill; I expect more bodies to slowly float to the surface over next few weeks/months. Imo, most likely outcome for crypto is a choppy market with downward drift over next few weeks/months as capital slowly leaves the space & most mkt participants lose interest & bleed $ in a highly predatory environment. Best r/r activity now is enjoying life, not taking many trades, and spending most screentime diving into new developments/innovation in the space. Defi broadly & decentralized perps mkts specifically are something that’s caught significant interest post-FTX and actually offers a unique value prop. Am also still on the hunt for smaller-cap value, either in coins or NFTs, as I think best opportunities on-chain come when most aren’t paying attention.

As always, good luck!

For crypto, the singular focus has become the shocking insolvency of FTX & blowup of Alameda. Coins across the board have taken a massive hit, while general sentiment & confidence in the space has cratered to new lows. Some defi coins (mainly dex & decentralized perp tokens) have caught a bid, while Solana eco & exchange tokens ex-BNB have considerably underperformed the market as traders are on the hunt for any signs of insolvency or weakness from existing exchanges & service providers. Theme for this week is contagion as we see how many other entities (funds and projects) were impacted by the FTX implosion. It’s hard to see any meaningful bid returning to crypto in the near-term future, though individuals gradually quitting the space & funds closing shop will likely provide headwinds through EOY. I hold small amount of ETH puts as mkt is skewed to downside, but otherwise am not trading much as I view holding meaningful balances on exchanges as very risky right now.

This likely tops LUNA/3AC collapse as most impactful event of the year. The damage to confidence in the space — both by retail players & institutions considering getting into crypto — will be massive. I’m sure a number of funds have non-trivial $ on FTX and are in trouble/may have to fold if they are not made whole on deposits. Like LUNA & 3AC in May/June, there will be lots of spillover effects, some over next few days/weeks & some over longer term. The biggest question is whether Binance will close the deal. Imo, there’s a good chance they close even if FTX is several billion in the red, as the cost to the industry & therefore Binance’s businesses (since they’re arguably the only Tier 1 exchange left) would be so great if FTX went belly-up.

In terms of trading, think risks are just too great to take any non-trivial positions here. I bought a small amount of ETH straddles as I think vol probably going to remain elevated for next week or so, but no net directional & will likely stay that way aside from small scalps.

In terms of the space as a whole, we are likely in for a rough couple years, at least on par with past crypto bear markets. It might be a tough trading environment, but staying engaged will pay tremendous dividends when conditions eventually improve. Those who stuck around in 2015–2016 got in early on Ethereum & a ton of the ICOs that went crazy in 2017. Those who stuck around in 2019 saw Defi & NFTs emerge early & were well-positioned to hit the ground running during Defi summer & alt season in early 2021. It’s also much easier to meet people & build a good group of friends during bear markets, as people have fewer things competing for attention & are generally hungrier for any opportunity. Take advantage of this time. I sure wish I had been more active in 2019–2020.

Most importantly; survive. 90%+ of people are net down on the year; don’t dwell on your losses or try to “make it all back”. Bear markets are for preserving capital as much as possible & preparing for when times are better, as well as the occasional pockets of opportunity.

Godspeed everyone, looking forward to riding through the next few years with you all!