In 2004, my journey began with a “JavaScript for Dummies” book in one hand and dreams of the digital world in the other. I built websites on Geocities and programmed a six-axis robot arm at university, immersing myself in the nascent world of tech.

The Hiatus

But life led me away from coding. For two decades, my career paths didn’t require advanced tech skills – Excel was my most challenging tool. However, during this time, some of my peers who ventured into startups in Silicon Valley achieved significant success.

The Awakening

Fast forward to the present: I find myself in a corporate role, but with a growing sense of urgency. The rise of young engineers skilled in software automation and tools like ChatGPT poses a threat to my professional relevance. It’s time to adapt or face obsolescence.

New Beginnings

Recently, I dove into Python and web development. The abundance of online resources has accelerated my learning. This past Christmas, I crafted two websites:

1. Family Investment Blog: A personal space for sharing my financial insights. It’s liberating to have my own platform.

Family Investments | Family Investments

2. BuyTrigger.io: A site to document my investment journey and database. Back in 2021, getting this off the ground seemed costly, with developers asking for $10k just for the design. Fast forward to 2023, and I did it all by myself in three days!

Buy Trigger | Buy Trigger

The Future Awaits

This journey has taught me it’s never too late for new beginnings. With my industrial experience, I’m poised to explore tech projects that could benefit from automation.

Stay Tuned

Join me as I navigate this exciting chapter. If you’re considering a similar path, remember there are countless resources available. Your journey might just be starting.

Self Taught Gambler

I am very excited about this topic because the 2018 Football World Cup is just around the corner. Started gambling at the age of 9 during the 1990 Football World Cup. At that time I was already conducting technical handicap betting(a type of bet) with my lunch money at school. When I was 13, 1994 World Cup, I was drawing up risk fault tree and learning on probability before my teachers were teaching it at school. Every four years after, I was devising various mathematical techniques trying to beat the bookies’ odds.

Biggest Lessons I’ve learned

Let me tell you the story. In 1994, I followed Italy closely to the finals, waking up early hours of the morning watching live games to compensate for the time difference. I admire the number 10 striker, Roberto Baggio, then. Every day I would walk with my notepad to study every stats, history, player moods and gave ratings on my own account for each match. In the finals, Italy faced favourite Brazil in the finals and I was already $500 in profit (US$550 today). Could have easily stop and kept the money. However, I took the risk because I was emotionally attached to Italy and was hoping for them to win. My parents and friends also believed, my confidence promotional pitch, that an injured and fatigue golden boots striker will lift the cup for the glorious Roman capital. Unfortunately, in the early hours of the morning, Brazil won the penalty shootout with Roberto missing his penalty shot.

I was completely shattered because my family lost a total of $1,500 (US$1,650 today). My parents believed me so much that they also joined the bandwagon. My father had to pay the bookies (underground) the following day to avoid any ‘Godfather’ cutscenes. I was silent for at least a month trying to avoid my friends and media. I did apologise to my dad a few weeks after. His amazing response was, ‘Money loss can be re-earned. Take this as school fees for life-lessons’. I cried by my dad and took the two key lessons to heart.

1. Business is ruthless and never make an emotional decision or loyalty attachment with your money.

2. There is always money on the table if you leave early. 100% risk of loss means an entire 100% loss!

These two lessons gave me a strong foundation when I started investing. Over the years, I have come across investors who could not understand these two basic fundamentals. Most get over-emotional which impacts their work and family life. Others always cast their blame on poor companies and not themselves for investing in that crippled organisation.

Final Words

To invest your money and grow wealth you have to learn to take and understand the risk. Investment risk can be mitigated with knowledge and information gained. However, a person needs to be cool and ruthless when making decisions on the companies they invest and own. Loyalty is celebrated when financial situations are healthy. During a downturn always be the first to leave and grab the chips of the table before it overturns. Never be too greedy as there are plenty of opportunities and simply needs to be timed correctly.

An experienced gambler is a perfect investor, who never gambles on a business investment.

Introduction

Disney was in the headline for a mega-blockbuster acquisition of 21st Century Fox just before the end of December 2017. A deal which won investors faith and establishes some sense of growth after being stagnant since Jan 2015. As a business, Disney was still growing their profit every year through their movie blockbusters, parks, merchandise, tv and existing patents. However, after the February 2018 stocks sell off, Disney shares have dropped from $115 and back to their average stagnant price of $102 again and not recovered since.

Their ESPN sports business have been impacted by the rise of E-Sports and Twitch. The new generations millennials worldwide are not as interested in traditional sports like football, basketball or baseball in comparison.

Not a Great Deal

$66bn for the takeover is a lot of money and Disney are very keen to capture more media market share and eliminate competition. Adding to their already vast library of patents, Disney is keen to capture all forms of media platform from TV, Online Stream and Social Media for the global edge. Disney seems to be only exploring growth options in the same areas and not looking outside the box. Disney Studios are only limited to release a certain amount of movies in a 365 days calendar year. Capturing Fox will only flood the market with more Disney labelled movies. With the turning point of the Millennials lifestyle, the number of movie and TV series watching generation are not expected to grow any further. According to UK Ofcom report, Mobile phones have replaced the TV AND TV literally have replaced the Radios in the home. A household will not spend twice the amount of cinema tickets a year watching more movies or streaming content.

Previous Disney acquisition such as Marvel, Pixar and Lucas Films was very successful and helped the company grow in every aspect of the business. The three take over cost a total of under £18bn which boosted about 300% growth in the last 12 years. These three companies were captured at an affordable price in comparison to the overpriced FOX deal.

Disney’s current closest rival Netflix is growing subscribers, innovating new ideas and pushing all boundaries for the business. Netflix is not only capturing a global audience but also stopping video piracy, reviving old contents and providing all in one media package for their customers. Disney seems to be entering the market slowly which is simply increasing the chance of failure. Disney made the same mistakes previously in the gaming industry with the release of Disney Infinity in 2014. This was three years after the peaking of Skylanders games where children purchase specific figurine characters to battle on the console screen.

Disney need Innovations to grow

Disney is very particular about who they acquire. Disney only acquires companies with a clean slate reputation with no surface of any public controversy. Hence the Twitter takeover bid was dismissed in 2016. The one company which would have fit the bill for Disney for $66bn to boost their portfolio is Nintendo Inc. Nintendo has plenty to offer from their large library of patents and their experience in the gaming industry which Disney severely lacks. Nintendo is still the only company among the Big three gaming brands to reinvent the industry every five years. For every product flop release by Nintendo, they always come back with two innovative groundbreaking release. Pokémon and Mickey Mouse crossover would be more favourable than Homer Simpson and Darth Vader.

Buying Nintendo would help the existing Disney brands and character open up to the world of video gaming for all ages. Disney in return with the media advantage can help Nintendo boost their E-Sports sector which could open up to a new $150bn industry. This would also open doors to the China and Asian market. Disney’s failing ESPN could potentially be boosted with new generations E-Sports program to fend off Amazon’s Twitch and Google’s Youtube recapturing markets in new areas. Turning the existing liability into strong portfolio assets again. Creativity from Nintendo and Disney could potentially create a next-generation E-Sports platform and league across the globe for younger and also older gamers.

With the buyout of Nintendo, Disney could potentially open smaller Disney-Nintendo parks in other places in the world focused on specific areas like Mario Karts, Zelda Land, Mario Vs Mickey Castle etc. This would appeal to new generations and also the older generations alike. This could compete in the markets from the like of smaller park operators such as Legoland and Warner Bros Studio.

Disney could boost the Nintendo Apps channel with Disney content and utilise the Nintendo hardware console as access all Disney content on a subscription basis. Nintendo’s relationship with Apple could also boost access to IOS users in the iPhone market via games with Disney content. Pushing boundaries further with iPhone and Apple watch special edition merchandise with Mickey and Mario would grab the audience’s heart and boost business reputation.

Innovation is Disney’s key to success for the next ten years of the company. If Disney still stirs around the same recipe, there is a fear of stagnancy in their business models like IBM, AMEX and Cisco.

Nintendo is Japan’s national treasure and a complete buyout would seem to be almost impossible. A sacrifice deal would need to be in place for Nintendo to retain its national origin and boosting of the HQ in Tokyo. End of the day an attractive business deal would be required to make it happen.

Disney shares are very dull

Disney shares are always in everyone long-term portfolio. At a PE ratio of under 14, debt to equity ratio of 0.6 seems very attractive to purchase and own. However, the annual dividend yield of under 1.4% is low and unattractive because Disney still thinks they are a high growth company. Disney has underperformed for three years against the SNP500 index and investors are looking elsewhere for better and stable growth. In comparison similar reputable and market size such as; Microsoft, McDonald’s, Visa has outperformed Disney by multiple folds in the last 5 years. As an individual investor, it would be better buying bonds or high interest fixed term savings in the last 3 years than buying Disney shares. With the buying of 21st Century Fox does not seem to change the companies ambition to innovate and grow. Owning McDonald’s shares would be safer in comparison to Disney in terms of dividends and business innovation.