It’s getting down to crunch time in the race for at-large bids, with some bubble teams looking to take steps towards locking up an at-large bid.

Note that each team’s listed RPI is accurate as of Thursday morning.

Pennsylvania (RPI #68) @ Cornell (RPI #22) [in Princeton, NJ]

Cornell currently sit above the bubble line, looking to make their second consecutive NCAA Tournament. A loss for the Big Red shouldn’t drop them too much, while a win would give them another top-100 win and allow them to build a small buffer between themselves and the rest of the bubble. However, Cornell are probably long shots for a top-16 seed and first round bye. The winner will face either Princeton or Harvard in the Ivy League final.

Update: Cornell won 1–0. Box score here.

UConn (RPI #21) vs. Akron (RPI #8) [in Boyds, MD]

A big game for both teams, with each side hoping that they have an at-large bid to fall back on should they need it. UConn have five top-50 RPI wins on the season, and adding another here will be enough for them to get an at-large bid. Akron are in a similar scenario, as they currently fall under the “should be in” category in our latest bubble update. A win today will officially move them to “lock” territory. Additionally, the Zips are in contention for a top-16 seed and first round bye, and their chances of that will be boosted if they come out victorious today.

Update: UConn won 2–1. Box score here.

California (RPI #52) vs. Virginia (RPI #2) [in Cary, NC]

One of the Cinderella stories of the past few weeks has been the California Golden Bears, who have rattled off three straight shutout wins to get to the ACC semifinals. California took down Stanford in their regular season finale, before going cross-country and defeating 5-seed Duke. In the quarterfinals, the Golden Bears defeated Pittsburgh to set up a semifinal showdown against top-seeded Virginia. However, California will need at least one more win, as they aren’t currently in a position where an at-large bid is a realistic possibility. On the other side, Virginia have looked like one of the best teams in the nation throughout the season, and figure to be a strong National Championship contender. The Cavaliers have their eyes set on the top overall NCAA Tournament seed (especially after Maryland’s loss last night), and can stay on track for that with a win today.

Update: Virginia won 2–1. Box score here.

Fairfield (RPI #73) @ Sacred Heart (RPI #48)

We’ll keep this one short, as Sacred Heart are nowhere near an at-large bid and will have to win the MAAC Tournament. This one is a crosstown rivalry, with the two schools separated by a 15-minute drive in Fairfield, Connecticut. The two sides met last week in the regular season finale, which ended in a back-and-forth 2–2 draw.

Update: Sacred Heart won 4–3 (aet). Box score here.

Harvard (RPI #60) @ Princeton (RPI #1)

Another one that we’ll keep short and sweet: Princeton will need a win to stay in position for the top overall seed, while Harvard will need to be a bid-stealer and win the Ivy League Tournament if they want any chance of getting in the NCAA Tournament.

Update: Princeton won 3–1. Box score here.

Providence (RPI #70) vs. Georgetown (RPI #19) [in Boyds, MD]

Georgetown are still in contention for a top-16 NCAA Tournament seed, and a win today will be necessary if they want to stay alive for that. Providence, like Harvard, would be a “bid-stealer” if they went on a run and won the Big East Tournament. Bubble teams will be hoping for the Hoyas to hold serve and avoid the stress that bid-stealers bring to those bubble teams.

Update: Georgetown won 2–0. Box score here.

Syracuse (RPI #31) vs. SMU (RPI #11) [in Cary, NC]

Another team that has come out of the woodwork in recent weeks has been the Syracuse Orange, who enter tonight’s ACC semifinal on a four game unbeaten streak. On that unbeaten run, Syracuse have taken down North Carolina and Virginia Tech, as well as a road draw and road win at NC State. Thanks to these results, Syracuse have rocketed up the RPI rankings and now sit in a great spot from an at-large perspective. One more win tonight should be enough for Ian McIntyre and his Syracuse squad to get into the NCAA Tournament. SMU come into this semifinal on the back of two thrilling wins, albeit in contrasting styles. Following a thrilling 5–4 win over Wake Forest in the first round, SMU withstood heavy Stanford pressure to run out 1–0 winners in the quarterfinals. Now sitting well inside comfortable at-large territory, SMU have their eyes set on a top-16 seed, and possibly even top 8. A win today would keep them right in the thick of that conversation.

Update: SMU won 5–1. Box score here.

A link to our bubble sheet with brief resumes for teams in the 25–50 RPI range can be found here.

Note that each team’s listed RPI is accurate as of Sunday morning.

Pittsburgh (RPI #52) @ California (RPI #59):

Both Pittsburgh and California are on the outside looking in at the moment and both with a winning percentage of .500, making this one a definite elimination game. The winner will get a chance at a top 50 win, with Virginia or North Carolina awaiting in the semis. Even that might not be enough, but both teams will look to keep their seasons alive for at least one more match.

Update: California won 1–0. Box score here.

Oral Roberts (RPI #131) @ Denver (RPI #28):

Denver looks to be in a good spot for an at-large bid at the moment, with four top 50 RPI wins. A top-16 seed may be a bit of a long shot for the Pioneers, but a win today at least keeps them alive for it. The winner faces Delaware or Kansas City in the Summit League Championship.

Update: Denver won 4–1. Box score here.

Coastal Carolina (RPI #157) @ Kentucky (RPI #30):

On the back of a five game unbeaten run, Kentucky look to continue their hot streak in the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Tournament. As of now, the Wildcats are in a good at-large position, with two top 50 and five top 100 RPI wins on their resume. A win won’t necessarily make them an at-large lock just yet, but a loss could very well drop them into the “toss-up” zone and force them to play the waiting game.

Update: The match finished in a 0–0 draw, Kentucky advanced 6–5 on penalties. Box score here.

North Carolina (RPI #24) @ Virginia (RPI #3):

North Carolina got a big win on Wednesday vs. Notre Dame, putting the Tar Heels in a good at-large spot. A loss today wouldn’t eliminate them, and probably wouldn’t cause them to drop too far. On the other hand, a win would go a long way to securing an at-large spot, and make them a strong bet to make the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia won 2–1. Box score here.

Presbyterian (RPI #146) @ Gardner-Webb (RPI #35)

Gardner-Webb are an interesting team, as they sit right in the middle of the “bubble zone”. As it stands right now, I feel like an at-large decision could go either way for the Runnin’ Bulldogs. They don’t have a bad loss on the schedule, with Furman and High Point being the only blemishes. On the flip side, their only top 100 wins are West Virginia and Davidson. A loss to Presbyterian in the Big South quarterfinals would put Gardner-Webb in the danger zone, and possibly the wrong side of the bubble come selection time.

Update: Gardner-Webb won 4–0. Box score here.

Delaware (RPI #42) @ Kansas City (RPI #20):

A rematch of a thrilling 3–3 draw we saw on Wednesday, Delaware and Kansas City meet for the second time in five days, this time in the Summit League semifinals. Delaware sit in the more precarious situation, as they don’t have enough for an at-large bid. The Blue Hens will need to win the Summit League to get an NCAA Tournament bid, while Kansas City can move a step closer to securing an at-large bid with a win. The winner in Kansas City will face Oral Roberts or Denver in the Summit League Championship.

Update: Kansas City won 2–0. Box score here.

Syracuse (RPI #43) @ NC State (RPI #12):

A huge opportunity for Syracuse to bolster their resume, as they head to an always-rowdy Dali Soccer Field to face NC State in an ACC Tournament quarterfinal. I don’t see a way for Syracuse to sneak into the NCAA Tournament if they lose today, making it do-or-die for the Orange. If NC State haven’t already locked up a top-16 seed, a win today will do it. The Wolfpack likely have their sights set on a top-4 NCAA Tournament seed and home-field advantage up to the College Cup (which will be held in Cary, North Carolina, just 15 minutes away from the NC State campus)

Update: Syracuse won 3–0. Box score here.

UCF (RPI #67) vs. Georgia Southern (RPI #25):

Another team that currently sits inside solid at-large position is the Georgia Southern, who have never made the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles began the season on a nine-match unbeaten run, before dropping two consecutive matches, including a 3–0 loss to this same UCF team. Another loss today would definitely move Georgia Southern into “wait-and-see” territory. Their resume is similar to others around them, with two top-50 RPI wins. A win won’t quite lock them into an at-large bid, but it would give them another top-100 win and a semifinal matchup vs. Kentucky or Coastal Carolina.

Update: UCF won 3–2 after extra time. Box score here.

UNC Greensboro (RPI #27) @ Mercer (RPI #167):

A separation of over 100 RPI spots, but it’s Mercer who host UNC Greensboro in this SoCon semifinal. UNC Greensboro can’t afford a loss, which would likely see them slide down the RPI rankings. A loss to ETSU, one of the worst teams in the nation, is currently the big stain on UNCG’s resume, and it could come into play depending on how things shake out in the SoCon Tournament.

UNC Greensboro won 2–0. Box score here.

A link to our bubble sheet with brief resumes for teams in the 25–50 RPI range can be found here.

Friday night means plenty of men’s soccer action, as we have nine notable matches to keep an eye on today.

Note that each team’s listed RPI is accurate as of Friday morning.

UConn (RPI #34) @ Seton Hall (RPI #15):

A great opportunity for UConn to get a big resume-boosting win, as a win would give the Huskies their 5th top-50 RPI win of the season. Additionally, the two sides are currently involved in a four-way tie for third in the conference, and in a four-team battle for two wild card spots in the Big East Tournament. Seton Hall meanwhile look to keep building their case for a top-16 seed and first round bye. A loss for either team could see them miss out on the Big East Tournament, and for UConn possibly end their season. The winner secures their spot in the Big East Tournament.

Update: UConn won 2–1. Box score here.

Akron (RPI #11) @ Creighton (RPI #43):

The other notable Big East matchup tonight is a “Midwest Division championship game” as the winner will clinch the Big East Midwest Division title and spot in the conference tournament. The loser could miss out depending on results elsewhere, and a draw means that Creighton win the division. Creighton aren’t in a position at the moment to be able to rely on an at-large bid, so a loss and failure to qualify for the conference tournament would spell the end of the Blue Jays’ season. Barring a dramatic fall, an Akron loss wouldn’t knock them out of at-large territory, but it could damage their hopes of a first round bye.

Update: Akron won 1–0, and won the Midwest Division. Creighton do not qualify for the Big East Tournament. Box score here.

VCU (RPI #38) @ Dayton (RPI #127):

An Atlantic 10 quarterfinal is a must-win for VCU, as they take on Creighton. VCU’s resume is bolstered by an early season win against Clemson, but the chances of that being enough to put them in at-large territory are slim. A loss to a Dayton team that’s outside the top 100 in RPI would drop VCU further down the RPI rankings and end their season.

Update: Dayton won 4–2. Box score here.

Tulsa (RPI #121) @ USF (RPI #48):

We’ll keep this one short and sweet: USF are nowhere near an at-large bid, so a loss today will end their 2025 campaign. The winner of tonight’s match will face FAU in the semifinals on Wednesday.

Update: Tulsa won 3–2 after extra time. Box score here.

Butler (RPI #160) @ St. John’s (RPI #35)

St. John’s are one of those teams that I feel could go either way. It’s still too early to make a concrete prediction on them, as it will likely all depend on how many spots are available for the “bubble teams”. A loss or draw against Butler would mean that the Red Storm miss the Big East Tournament and will have no other way to boost their resume. Would they fall completely out of at-large contention? Again, it still seems a bit too early to definitively say yes or no, but a loss would undoubtedly make it a lot tougher to get an at-large bid. An important game for St. John’s, but not one that’s make-or-break just yet.

Update: The matched ended in a 2–2 draw. Box score here.

VMI (RPI #211) @ UNC Greensboro (RPI #23):

Another one that I’ll keep short: UNC Greensboro are in a good spot right now, and face one of the worst teams in the country. I don’t anticipate anything crazy happening, but any kind of shock loss for UNC Greensboro would see them drop and possibly enter a danger zone. For what it’s worth, UNCG are 17–0 all-time against VMI, outscoring them 75–4.

Update: UNC Greensboro won 5–1. Box score here.

Rutgers (RPI #39) @ Indiana (RPI #9):

A must-win for the Scarlet Knights, who won’t qualify for the Big Ten Tournament. This is their last chance for a signature win, and would be their first top 50 RPI win of the season. A win doesn’t necessarily put them into the field, but a loss would remove any hope. Indiana are still playing for a top 16 seed and first round bye.

Update: Indiana won 5–0. Box score here.

La Salle (RPI #163) @ St. Louis (RPI #28):

St. Louis are currently hovering just above bubble territory, and a loss today could very well drop them into the toss-up category. They’ve been held to two consecutive draws to lesser opponents in recent weeks, but the Billikens should still have enough for an at-large bid. They’ll look to extend their 7-match unbeaten run and hope for a first round NCAA Tournament match at home (where they haven’t lost all season).

Update: St. Louis won 2–0.

UCLA (RPI #58) @ Washington (RPI #25):

This match has more implications on the Big Ten standings than it does the bubble, as UCLA look to clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament while Washington are still in contention for the regular season title. A Washington win coupled with a Maryland loss would give the Huskies the title. A UCLA win means that they clinch the final spot in the conference tournament, but a loss or draw could open the door for one of Indiana or Wisconsin. From a bubble perspective, a win would give Washington another top 100 RPI win on their resume. A loss could see Washington slide down towards an area of uncertainty, but their resume would likely be strong enough to still get an at-large bid.

A link to our bubble sheet with brief resumes for teams in the 25–50 RPI range can be found here.

Four notable matches highlight the slate for Wednesday, November 5. Each match features two teams in and around the bubble, making today’s matches do-or-die for some teams.

Update: Final scores and box scores for each of the matches are included at the end of each preview.

Delaware (RPI #46) @ Kansas City (RPI #27):

A matchup between two teams inside the top 50 RPI, with Kansas City hosting Delaware. Both teams will look for another top 100 RPI win, while the winner of today’s matchup may end up hosting the loser in the Summit League semifinals.

Update: The match finished in a 3–3 draw. Box score here.

Virginia Tech (RPI #41) @ Syracuse (RPI #51):

A first round ACC Tournament matchup is a de facto “elimination game” between Virginia Tech and Syracuse. One win probably won’t be enough for either of these teams, but the winner will possibly have a great chance for a signature win vs. NC State in the quarterfinals. The loser, meanwhile, will see their season come to an end as neither of their resumes are good enough for an at-large bid.

Update: Syracuse won 2–1. Box score here.

North Carolina (RPI #32) @ Notre Dame (RPI #40):

The biggest bubble game of the night is an ACC Tournament first round match between North Carolina and Notre Dame. The two teams have very similar resumes, with UNC having one less overall loss. A win for either team gives them a good resume boost and a good chance for an at-large bid. The winner will also face Virginia in the quarterfinal. A win today and a win over Virginia for either of these teams would very likely be enough for an at-large bid. A win today for North Carolina could be enough as well, while Notre Dame is not going to get an at-large bid if they lose tonight.

Update: North Carolina won 3–1. Box score here.

Wake Forest (RPI #43) @ SMU (RPI #31):

A very similar situation as the North Carolina-Notre Dame match, SMU vs. Wake Forest includes two teams who could make a decent argument for an at-large bid. SMU sit in a better spot at the moment, and a win tonight might be enough, while Wake Forest can’t afford to lose. Like the previous game, the winner has a golden opportunity to play their way into an at-large bid, with Stanford the probable quarterfinal opponent. Two wins for either team should be enough for an at-large bid.

Update: SMU won 5–4. Box score here.

A link to our bubble sheet with brief resumes for teams in the 25–50 RPI range can be found here.

Akron (RPI #29) vs. DePaul (94)

This game for the top-seeded Zips is more about avoiding defeat than winning. If Akron loses to DePaul, there’s a good chance they tumble down the RPI rankings and out of the picture. On the flip side, I don’t believe a win would push Akron ahead of the teams ahead of them, such as NC State, Maryland, Washington, and Michigan. A win would potentially give Akron a chance for a big semifinal matchup against Georgetown.

Kansas City (RPI #35) vs. Oral Roberts (55)

Kansas City sit squarely in the bubble at 35, right where the cutoff line could end up being. Saturday’s matchup with Oral Roberts, who themselves are just off the bubble, isn’t technically a conference tournament game, but it might as well be. The winner will finish 2nd in the conference and face Denver in the Summit League championship a week from Saturday for the conference’s automatic bid. A draw would send Kansas City through. A loss for Kansas City won’t probably push them too far down the RPI rankings. With Oral Roberts already off the bubble, Saturday afternoon in Kansas City is probably an elimination game.

UC Santa Barbara (RPI #38) vs. UC Irvine (62)

After receiving a bye to the Big West Tournament semifinals, the Gauchos get an opportunity to add another top 100 RPI win to their resume and stay in contention for an at-large bid. Despite a decent looking resume, a loss would likely extinguish any at-large hopes for UC Santa Barbara.

Fordham (RPI #39) @ Duquesne (52)

Another match featuring one team on the bubble and one team just off, as Duquesne are actually the higher seed in this A-10 quarterfinal. We can call this one an elimination game too, as the loser will say goodbye to any at-large bid hopes. For the winner though, a date with fellow bubble team George Mason or #9 RPI Dayton.

Princeton (RPI #48) vs. Pennsylvania (10)

Top-of-the-table clash for the regular season title and hosting rights in the Ivy League Tournament? Yes please. Princeton currently has the worst loss of any team on the bubble (Army, 199) and will look for a huge resume-boosting win to offset that. The Tigers are likely long shots to get an at-large bid anyways, and will hope to secure home field advantage in the Ivy League Tournament.

WCC title clinching scenarios

It’s not a bubble game, but we could have our first automatic bid secured on Saturday night, as San Diego hosts Portland. A win or draw for San Diego would secure the WCC Title and conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Toreros are considered a “lock” to get an at-large bid, so if San Diego win the WCC, another bubble spot will open up.

The West Coast Conference (WCC) is the only conference that does not have a conference tournament. Instead, the regular season winner is awarded the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. With one matchday left, here are the title scenarios.

Current standings:

1. San Diego — 18 points

2. Oregon State — 16 points

3. San Francisco — 14 points

4. Portland — 13 points

5. Loyola Marymount — 10 points

6. Santa Clara — 8 points

7. St. Mary’s — 6 points

8. Pacific — 4 points

9. Gonzaga — 0 points

Mathematically, Oregon State is the only team that can catch San Diego. With one match left, the maximum amount of points Oregon State can get is 19.

If San Diego and Oregon State finish level on 19 points, San Diego will win the title as they have the head-to-head tiebreaker courtesy of a 2–0 win when the teams met in October.

With that being said, the scenarios are pretty straightforward:

1. San Diego clinch the title with: a win or draw against Loyola Marymount; OR an Oregon State loss or draw
2. Oregon State clinch the title with: a win at Portland AND a San Diego loss at Loyola Marymount

Both matches will kick off simultaneously at 10 pm ET on Saturday, November 16 on ESPN+

RPI rankings are correct after Tuesday’s matches.

Oregon State: RPI #27 — vs. Bowling Green (61)

Oregon State currently sit in the top 30 for RPI, which has historically been good enough to get an at-large bid. A win would add another top-100 win to Oregon State’s resume and would help solidify their spot at the top of the bubble.

Virginia: RPI #28 @ NC State (24) ~ ACC Tournament first round

A first-round ACC Tournament clash sees two teams looking to add a key win to their resume. NC State isn’t technically considered to be on the bubble, but could fall back into the 25–30 range with a loss. Virginia, like Oregon State, will look to add a quality win to their resume and secure their spot in the top 30. The winner of this one will earn a date with Pittsburgh and a chance at a huge, probably bid-clinching win.

Wake Forest: RPI #29 vs. Syracuse (53) ~ ACC Tournament first round

Wake Forest have turned their season around in the past month and a half with only one loss in their last nine matches. The Demon Deacons will hope to continue their push and work towards an at-large bid. Syracuse currently sit just off the bubble, and any slim hopes of an at-large bid will be erased with a loss today.

Drake: RPI #33 vs. Missouri State (13)

A Drake win will give them their best win of the season, and bump them up the RPI rankings. A loss likely won’t hurt the Bulldogs too much, with the MVC Tournament still to come. Both Drake and Missouri State have locked up a top-two seed and bye to the MVC semifinals, and the winner of tonight’s matchup will secure the top overall seed and home field advantage through the conference tournament.

Notre Dame: RPI #35 @ Stanford (12) ~ ACC Tournament first round

Notre Dame currently sit right in the middle of the “toss-up” zone, and could go either way. A win over Stanford will obviously give them a big quality win, while a loss could very well end their season. The Fighting Irish might have to win multiple conference tournament games to be comfortable on selection day, and it starts tonight out west. For Stanford, a loss tonight could damage their hopes at a top-16 NCAA Tournament seed and first round bye.

Virginia Tech: RPI #37 @ Duke (4) ~ ACC Tournament first round

Like Notre Dame, Virginia Tech are also in a position where they could end up going either way. The Hokies desperately need a quality win on their resume, currently having zero top 50 RPI wins and only two top 100 wins. A loss for Virginia Tech and any at-large hopes for the Hokies are likely over. Duke will look to build their case for a top-four NCAA Tournament seed and home field through the NCAA Tournament.

For my full bubble sheet that will be updated until selection day, check the link below: