A secret weapon to validate your next great idea

Sitting on a game-changing idea? The next must-have product or service with unicorn potential? If only there was a way to validate your startup idea before jumping in head first … welcome to the world of Smoke Testing.

What is Smoke Testing?

Smoke testing is a term most commonly found in the realm of computer programming and software testing; referring to the initial testing process conducted to check whether software is ready / stable enough for further testing. The name originates from hardware testing, where a device passed the test if it did not catch fire (or smoke) the first time it was turned on.

In the world of growth marketing, smoke testing is one of the most cost-effective and efficient ways to test newly formed ideas — resulting in tangible learnings and actionable insights. Smoke tests can even preempt the Minimum Viable Product (“MVP”) concept. Helping you answer the fundamental question “Will people actually pay for my product?”

Smoke tests often comprise little more than one well-put together landing page centered around a strong call to action (“CTA”). It is a method of providing users with an insight into your concept alongside an option to purchase or sign-up. Behind the scenes the product may be in its infancy or may not even exist!

The webpage can then be used to easily track and quantify early demand for your product in actual dollar-terms, which in turn can validate (or disprove) your hypothesis and determine whether you have a feasible business case (or not). Any information collected from these first few highly motivated users can also be subsequently used to target them as your first customers. As these early adopters have already essentially “pre-bought” your product.

All this achievable on a tight budget AND in under a few weeks? “Not possible” you say!

Read on for more insights in to this game-changing tool …

Why Smoke Test?

Whilst conducting customer interviews can be insightful and should form part of any early-stage market sounding, inherent difficulties with surveys and response biases such as acquiescence bias (a.k.a “yea-saying”) is where smoke testing sets itself apart. As nothing quite signifies concrete buyer intent like a potential customer clicking “Buy Now” vs. just saying “I’d probably buy that” when asked.

As entrepreneur and author of the Lean Startup, Eric Ries, puts it,

“The grim reality is that most startups fail.” and

“The problem with entrepreneurship is we are often working really hard producing high quality products that no-one wants”.

Long gone are the days of “Build it and they will come.” Which is where smoke tests come in. They can provide crucial validation and proof of a viable concept with minimal resources, ahead of investing (further) precious time, effort and money into building your next great idea.

So prior to quitting your job and jumping in head first, what is the best way to smoke test and find out if people are actually willing to pay for your product?

5 Step guide to Smoke Testing

Step 1: What to test?

Armed with your hypothesis or idea, firstly it is crucial to define what you wish to test and what would success look like? In most cases, the most important question to answer is “are people actually willing to pay for my product or service?”, which in turn translates to “do I have a feasible business idea?”

Put down your early markers / targets for success. For example:

• If more than X% of visitors to the landing page across X weeks click “Buy” or “Join waitlist”, we may have a product worth building
• If we receive X orders in X weeks, we may have a product worth building
• If we can pre-sell $X in X weeks, we may have a product worth building

TIP #1: Whilst useful to set yourself ballpark figures to strive for and benchmark against, these yardsticks for success will also inevitably evolve as the data you collect comes in. Don’t be afraid to reassess and reevaluate to ensure that these goals are a) realistic and b) appropriately reflect the degree of success necessary for validation

Step 2: How to test?

Build your landing page!

Underpinning smoke tests are the fundamentals of speed, efficiency and cost — we want to efficiently validate and de-risk our idea as quickly as possible, as cheaply as possible.

Using simple drag-and-drop page builders such as Unbounce or Instapage allow you to quickly construct professional landing pages without the need to tie up precious engineering or developer resources.

Your landing page should include an explanation of what you do, the benefits you provide, and any products and pricing. Most importantly make sure your call to action is clearly marked front and centre. The best CTAs are short and compelling. Strong verbs demanding action are particularly impactful (e.g. Buy now, Sign-up, Subscribe!). Driving traffic and conversions of this CTA will determine the success of your smoke test (more on this later).

Smoke tests also provide a valuable opportunity for you to craft and test your Unique Value Proposition (“UVP”). This is the statement that describes the benefit of your offer, how you solve your customer’s needs and what distinguishes you from the competition. It’s the primary reason why a prospect should buy from you and needs to be clearly and concisely noted on your landing page.

Get your language and messaging right in the first instance, and only then test aesthetics such as color, font, size, positioning etc.

The below is an example smoke test landing page I pulled together over a weekend (using Instapage) to test a concept.

TIP #2: Ensure your branding, messaging and visual identity are consistent across all platforms — from your social channels to any advertisements. This is crucial for adding legitimacy to your offer and call to action and can improve conversions and brand building

Step 3: What to track?

Relating to the most important feature on your page, make sure your call to action button is trackable!

Helpfully, Unbounce and Instapage both automatically provide basic conversion tracking, however based on your level of technical ability it can make sense to also track custom user events or links — particularly if you have one or more CTAs on the page.

The point of your landing page is to see if anyone exhibits enough intent to complete your desired action. So ensure your site is setup to capture all valuable insights around site activity, conversion rates, potential buyer intent and customer information (such as email signups).

KPIs you will want to pay particular attention to include overall conversion % of customers from landing page to completed action, the click-through-rate from any ads you set up based on different keywords, and the bounce rate of your landing page for different keywords

TIP #3: Don’t be afraid to test with a “Buy Now” button — even if your product isn’t ready! One simple solution is to lead any potential customers who click on the button to a waitlist / email sign-up modal where they are prompted to enter their email information for restock alerts and / or an exclusive discount at launch.

Not only have you secured a firm indication of buyer intent, but you now have an email for a potential future customer. And if you’re worried about turning off potential customers, Eric Ries explains here why not to worry.

I employed this tactic successfully in the same smoke test noted earlier, resulting in a healthy list of initial email leads! (See below)

Step 4: Who to test on?

Next is all about getting people to your site.

Whilst getting a lot of eyeballs on your landing page is valuable, what matters more is getting the right eyeballs. In other words, the right traffic that will potentially be interested in your offering. For this, it helps to know your target customer and their personas.

Utilizing paid channels such as Google Ads and Facebook ads and running small campaigns lets you target specific audiences based on high intent keywords or lookalike audiences, pulling from their wide user bases to drive relevant traffic to your landing page.

Daily budget caps can also be set to ensure your ad spend remains affordable and is no more than necessary at this early testing stage.

As with every stage of smoke testing, the ads themselves present yet another opportunity to test and learn. Running multiple variations can allow you to refine your ad copy and challenge your existing assumptions about your target audience, whilst also determining viability of untested marketing channels.

In the below example, A/B testing of ad copy as part of a Smoke Test resulted in a c.100% increase in click-through-rate!

TIP #4: Choose a maximum daily budget for ads that is affordable for you to run a campaign for a few weeks. The key determinant of length of any smoke test will be when sufficient data has been gathered to provide conclusive insights

Step 5: Analyze results and optimize

As the data and the clicks flow in, be sure to continually track and optimize your campaign to maximize insights and learning. This may include tweaking of ad copy and / or elements of your landing page.

For example, if you spend $100 on Google Ads and received 100 clicks on your ads, however receive 0 clicks on your “Buy Now” CTA, you may have to question either your messaging, your pricing or your fundamental idea. Altering your landing page to test these variables can help you land on an answer.

On the other hand, if you receive 100 clicks on your ads resulting in 10 “Buy Now” clicks for $50 a piece — your $100 in ad spend would have generated $500 in potential revenue. In which case — Congratulations! — you may have unearthed a promising business.

TIP #5: A/B testing or multivariate testing can be employed as part of a smoke test, allowing you to test one or multiple elements across different page variations — including value proposition, messaging and pricing. Unbounce and Instapage both have built-in functionality to help you easily test page variations and track comparable performance. As part of your smoke test be bold; A/B testing can be a great way to test your riskiest assumptions!

Conclusion

Next time you’re struck with a wave of inspiration or a killer concept, run a smoke test to validate it! A smoke test can be one of the most powerful ways to help you figure out if you’re sitting on a Facebook or a Friendster — just follow the 5 simple steps in this guide:

1. Define what success would look like
2. Design your landing page experiment
3. Define your key metrics and track them
4. Drive the right traffic to your experiment
5. Analyze the results and iterate / optimize!

Special thanks to Thomas, Brittany and Javi for their suggestions, guidance and edits!

I’m always interested in meeting new people and hearing about the latest things people are working on! Feel free to reach out and let’s grab a coffee!

Follow me on twitter to hear more about my adventures in Growth Marketing!

A Growth Marketer’s guide to “Smoke Tests” was originally published in Tradecraft on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

6 Things I’ve learned about San Francisco — A Brit’s perspective

A recently imported Londoner’s musings on the City by the Bay

One month into my San Franciscan adventure, I’m starting to find my feet and better understand this wonderful city. From exploring the culinary scene beyond Trader Joe’s to knowing which letters to drop when talking about certain parts of town (SoMa and NoPa for example), my quest for San Franciscan citizenship is well underway. Although, on occasion I have still found myself acting as a “British” google translator (available for hire if anyone is looking), clarifying the UK-centric idioms which slip out from time to time. So what are a few things I’ve learned in my 30 days in this cosmopolitan city?

Check out my earlier post on “6 Things I wish I’d known about SF” if you haven’t already!

1. No, I’m fine … really.

• Brits as a people can often be criticised for saying a lot … but not really saying much at all. Perhaps a byproduct of my years spent in finance in London, it was not until arriving in San Francisco that I realised I had truly mastered the art. Be it polite rebuttals, veiled insults or confuddled sentences; I could dish these out as well as the next guy.
• I was pleasantly surprised by the refreshing directness of Americans who, heaven forbid, actually say exactly what’s on their minds. No beating around the bush or hiding behind double entendres. Americans have mastered straight talkin’ without coming across rudely and take no offence from directness or efficient communication. Albeit with San Franciscans arguably sitting at the softer end of the spectrum vs. their New York cousins.
• So leave the British “waffle” at home and be direct. Just do it!

2. “We don’t celebrate failure in Silicon Valley. We celebrate learning” — Reid Hoffman

• As the undisputed home of the modern day startup, San Francisco and the Greater Bay Area lay claim to being the leading centre for global tech innovation. Silicon Valley, from its humble beginnings as the Valley of the Heart’s Delight now calls itself home to a number of the most highly valued companies in the world. Leslie Berlin’s “Silicon Valley Then and Now” credits this roaring success to a carefully balanced and fortuitous intersection of technical, cultural, and financial forces.
• From my brief time here I’ve already been able to experience firsthand the vibrancy and infectious air of entrepreneurship in the startup and tech communities. The successful people and companies who pioneer here embody Reid Hoffman’s famous quote:

“We don’t celebrate failure in Silicon Valley. We celebrate learning”.

— Reid Hoffman

• Behind the unwavering work ethic and streak of ingenuity in every leading innovator from Silicon Valley, likely lies a trail of disasters and failed attempts met with premature ends. However, far from being seen as a black mark, these stories often encapsulate not only the resilience and dynamism of these characters, but most importantly the lessons learned and incremental experiences that have shaped the most successful Silicon Valleyites.

• One company which champions this mantra is ClassDojo — a communication app for the classroom that connects teachers, parents, and students. As CEO and co-founder Sam Chaudhary noted in a recent talk, behind the company’s mission to create happier classrooms, lies a company-wide ethos that promotes “learning over certainty” and recognises “failures” as just one important and necessary component of the learning process.
• Product teams at ClassDojo are structured and optimised to learn fast, supported by a conducive environment for positive, systematic experimentation; with some of ClassDojo’s greatest learnings arising on the back of this.

“No one should ever set out to fail. The key, really, shouldn’t be to embrace failure, but to embrace resilience and the ability to bounce back. And the goal shouldn’t be to glorify mistakes and errors and catastrophes, but to cultivate the ability to adapt and learn from them.”

— Rob Ashgar

• It is important to note that carefully testing well-crafted hypotheses and running experiments to validate or discredit these is far removed from the “fail fast, fail often” school of thought. Failures inevitably still come at a cost, be it a time-based, monetary or psychological toll.
• Over to you Silicon Valley, keep learning!

3. Oh there’s an app for that!

• Unsurprisingly here in San Francisco, there is an app for EVERYTHING. A consequence of the buzzing tech scene, convenience can often be found at the end of your fingertips. Whether it’s calling a ride, splitting a bill or even renting a kayak for a paddle around the Bay, San Franciscans will show you how it can be done with just the touch of a button.
• Your trusty smartphone can also be a life-saving travel companion — particularly if you plan on abiding by London tube rules where collective silence is the preferred mode of communication and are in need of a decoy to avoid talking to yet another overly enthusiastic tourist.
• See below for a few of the apps I’ve found helpful during my time here:
• → Need a ride? SF is home to two of the largest ride-sharing companies in the world so just hop in an Uber or a Lyft! Or if you’re feeling adventurous jump on an electric scooter from Scoot or Skip!
• → Hungry? Another SF native is Opentable. Make reservations seamlessly from your phone at that restaurant everyone’s been talking about (State Bird Provisions I’m looking at you).
• → Bored? If you’re stuck for ideas on what to do on the weekend, or looking for exciting activities to entertain guests from out of town; use Peek or Sosh to choose from a selection of the best that SF has to offer. From hidden cocktail spots to creative date night ideas, pop-up dinners and more — these apps have you covered
• → Lost? Found yourself stranded at one of the many crossroads in this gridded city? Citymapper or Moovit to the rescue! Both apps can show you the fastest, least crowded route from A to B based on real time data — and can even help you locate the nearest elusive MUNI stop …

4. No Nandos?! Let’s Taco ‘bout lunch

• San Francisco is a city steeped in food culture with more places to eat per capita than any other major city in the United States. With the ethos of fresh and plentiful regional ingredients captured by a number of the local dining spots and Farmer’s Markets across the city.
• When the clock strikes twelve each day, you’ll be greeted by sudden hum of activity as San Francisco’s worker bees come out of their hives and descend on the streets in search of today’s sustenance. From food trucks to fast, fine-casual dining, SF has an abundance of options to suit any wallet or palette; with so much to offer beyond Blue Bottle and Boudins (although sadly not a Greggs or Nandos in sight).
• Keep your eye out for the big lines of people! Just like the Brits, San Franciscans are no strangers to a queue and are often happy to patiently wait at the best food spots.
• Don’t leave before sampling a few local specialities including clam chowder in a sourdough bread bowl from Swan Oyster Depot, cruffins from Mr Holmes Bakehouse and burritos from the Mission (the La Taqueria or El Farolito debate rages on). All topped off with an It’s-It ice cream sandwich!
• Why not dine al fresco? Enjoy your lunch in the Californian sunshine in one of the many parks or outdoor areas that the city has to offer.
• And of course there’s an app to help you with your lunch needs! MealPal’s lunch subscription service can be a cost-effective way to navigate San Francisco’s gastronomic footprint and gives you a wide variety of options to choose from each day. Check it out here!

5. “Strength lies in differences, not in similarities” — Stephen R. Covey

• A key component of San Francisco’s diverse culinary fabric can also be traced back to the multicultural inhabitants of the city. Renowned for its liberalism and diversity, San Francisco is home to a wonderful fusion of nationalities and backgrounds. From old to young and everything in between.

“Nearly 37 percent of the people in Silicon Valley today were born outside of the United States — of these, more than 60 percent were born in Asia and 20 percent in Mexico. Half of Silicon Valley households speak a language other than English in the home … Silicon Valley, now, as in the past, is built and sustained by immigrants.”

— Leslie Berlin (“Silicon Valley Then and Now”)

• The above are just two of the many examples that point to SF’s unique cultural makeup being arguably the most important component for why the area has thrived; with the distinct blend of experiences and ethnicities forming the backbone of the Bay area.
• Take some time to experience the cultural melting pot of San Francisco firsthand, from the crowded bustle of the country’s largest Chinatown to the Latino flavours and colours of the Mission. Grab a slice of world-renown pizza from Tony’s Pizza Napoletana in Little Italy before venturing on to the Fillmore District where Jazz meets Japantown.

6. Please report if seen: Dyson air blade

• No good list is complete without an item centered around an irrational personal grievance. As a pampered European, I like many others have become accustomed to the reassuring presence of our trusty gusty friend: the hand dryer.
• Since arriving in SF I have come to realise that there is often more chance of coming across yet another unicorn startup vs. a Dyson airblade.
• It seems that the paper towel is the weapon of choice in this town, although the jury is still out on which is better or worse for the environment and your conscience (“Hand dryers or paper towels: which carries more bacteria?”)
• So be warned. Today’s forecast: damp hands.

Special thanks to Kat, Mike and Javi for being my SF-barometers and for their suggestions, guidance and eagle-eyed edits!

I’m always interested in meeting new people and hearing about the latest things that people in SF are working on! Feel free to reach out and let’s grab a coffee!

Follow me on twitter to hear more about my adventures in SF and Growth Marketing!

New to either Uber or Lyft? Use the following codes at sign-up to earn some free credit for your first ride! (Uber: ctp9r) (Lyft: EDWIN808136)

Tips and tricks for new explorers touching down in SF

San Francisco — home to the Golden Gate Bridge and a modern-day mecca for sourdough bread. As an out-of-towner who recently touched down on the sunny shores of SF to attend Tradecraft, an immersive training programme; I knew little about this intriguing place beyond its location at the apex of Silicon Valley. So what are a few things I wish I’d known prior to arriving in this beautiful city?

1. SF in the City

• After extensive research conducted amongst San Francisco natives, commonly accepted nicknames for the town can be broadly whittled down to “SF” and “the City” (or “the City by the Bay”). Most definitely NOT “San Fran” as I found out the hard way … so refrain from uttering the verboten two-syllabled rhyme unless you wish to cause a small riot and be asked politely to board the next flight out of the city.
• Use of “Frisco” remains fiercely divisive so drop in to conversation at your own peril.
• San Franciscans also love a good nickname for the many neighbourhoods and their intersections — including SoMa (South of Market), FiDi (Financial District), NoBe (North Beach), NoPa (North of Panhandle) and TenderNob (Tenderloin / Nob Hill) amongst others.

2. Peaky blunders

• A wonderfully walkable city at only 7 miles by 7 miles, exploring SF by foot is one of the best ways to take in the sights and sounds that the city has to offer. Each neighbourhood has its own distinct character and personality, from the authentic buzz of Chinatown to the tranquil oasis of Golden Gate Park.
• With a widely known reputation for being notoriously hilly, many a tourist has still met their match when finally coming face-to-face with one of the forty-eight named hills that make up San Francisco. Getting around SF can very quickly turn into a full-on sweaty workout, so much so that even the term “Urban Hiking” has be coined to describe exploring the city’s many stairways, hills and hiking trails.
• Be sure to wear comfortable shoes or sneakers to ensure you enjoy the strolls and make it through the day.

3. MUNI, MUNI, Where art thou MUNI?

• Thighs burning from the perpetual workout? Tired of walking? Hop on the MUNI! The Municipal Railway is the public transit system for the city and county of San Francisco; encompassing trains, busses, cable cars and the historic streetcar.
• The MUNI can be a cost-effective way to get around the city, however comes with a reputation of pretty much always being late or delayed … and where are the bus stops? Despite an ongoing initiative to improve signage, often MUNI stops are marked with no visual cue other than a utility pole with yellow paint and black stencilled letters towards the top.
• Perhaps more usefully, keep your eyes peeled for groups of locals loitering on the sidewalk, typically deep in contemplation on their phones. These human beacons often serve as the best indicator of an incoming MUNI bus. That’s if it ever arrives …

4. Today’s weather forecast: Spring / Summer / Autumn / Winter

• San Francisco’s pleasant year round climate is one of the key draws for tourists the world over. However the city’s natural geography means it is very possible to experience all four seasons in a day. You may be basking in the summer sun one moment, only to turn a corner and be swept away by icy arctic winds. Oh and did any one mention the fog? Meet Karl. San Francisco’s most famous son, the Golden Gate Bridge, has been known to pull a vanishing trick at times beneath a thick blanket of fog.
• Carry a jacket, sweatshirt and / or light layers with you at all times to ensure you can handle all the micro-climates that SF has to throw at you.

5. The Social Sweatwork

• A city entwined with fitness as evidenced by the numerous gyms and boutique exercise studios, San Francisco is a city comfortable in its own skin. Home to the Athleisure trend (“casual clothing designed to be worn both for exercising and for general use”), San Franciscans can be seen fashionably sporting Nike and Lululemon head-to-toe no matter what time of day.
• Feel free to blend in and take advantage of the cross section between fashion and comfort; don your comfiest leggings and half-zip whether for work or working out.

6. What’s the time, Mr Wolf?

• Looking to confuse a few Californians? Bamboozle people from the Bay? Drop a few 18:00s or 21:30s into your message conversations. Whilst the 24-hour clock or military time is commonplace in Europe and many other parts of the World, its use is less familiar in the US and can be the source of unnecessary confusion.
• Stick with the 12-hour clock and AM’s or PM’s unless you want to be left wondering why no one has turned up for your 19:30 reservation at State Bird …

Looking for the perfect travel companion? The ideal bag to stash your layers on your adventures? Check out the stylish and durable backpacks from San Francisco-based lifestyle brand ISM!

ISM: Tools for Creative Work

Special thanks to Kat, Mike and Javi for proofreading and edits!

As the new kid in town, I’m always looking to learn more about this wonderful city — I’d love to hear from you whether you’re a San Francisco native or fellow explorer — follow me on twitter to hear more about my adventures in SF and Growth Marketing!