October’s wholesale inflation came in a tick under forecast, and the 10-year yield climbed anyway. Bitcoin lost $70,000 before New York opened, the Nasdaq followed it down, and the fear index hit its lowest reading since July. The market got the soft number it wanted, and it didn’t matter.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $68,677, down 4.16%, and down about 9% on the week #1. It broke $70,000 early Friday in Asia for the first time since mid-August and dipped to about $67,500. That briefly put it under the 200-week average near $67,993, a line it hasn’t tested since Aug. 19 #6. On Thursday, a prediction market put the odds of $70,000 holding through Sunday at 93%. It broke on Friday morning. Lean: defensive until Sunday’s weekly close shows whether the 200-week line holds.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million and its issuance is fixed in code. No central bank can print more of it, and no government can freeze it in your own wallet. That case doesn’t depend on whether the Fed hikes in December. A hiking cycle makes the wait longer and the drawdowns deeper, and that’s the cost of holding a reserve asset nobody controls.

Ethereum — short term. $1,928.16, down 4.03%, and now trading below the $2,000 line it held on the last two tests. Lean: bearish while it’s below $2,000. Reclaiming that level on a daily close would make this a false break. Otherwise, $1,900 is the next round number traders will watch.

Ethereum — long term. Ethereum is where most tokenized dollars, Treasury funds and onchain financial products settle today. If that settlement layer keeps growing, the network’s fees and staking demand should grow with it. Whether ETH the asset captures that growth, and not just the companies building on it, is the bet you’re making.

Cardano — short term. $0.1712, up 0.25%, on a day BTC fell more than 4%. It held the $0.17 floor while larger coins broke through theirs. Charles Hoskinson told Decrypt that Cardano’s roadmap “is complete” #15. That leaves the market asking what Cardano builds next. Lean: neutral. One day of relative strength isn’t a trend, but it’s the first time in a week that ADA didn’t trade like the market with extra beta.

Cardano — long term. Cardano has a network value of about $6.4 billion, and its onchain fees and stablecoin activity are a fraction of Ethereum’s or Solana’s. Its long-term case is that a slower, peer-reviewed build eventually brings in users that the faster chains don’t. With the original roadmap declared finished, the next 12 months have to show adoption, not more research milestones. Make your own call.

The rest. SOL $79.80 (−2.27%) lost $80. BNB $632.30 (−3.41%). XRP $1.02 (−0.81%) is holding just above $1. All three fell less than BTC, which says the selling came through Bitcoin’s own channels: ETFs, futures and macro funds.

Why The Market Is Here

The number that was supposed to help. Thursday’s setup was simple: a cool producer-price report could ease hike fears and lift risk. October PPI rose 0.3% on the month, a tenth under the 0.4% forecast. Core matched expectations at 0.3% #3. The year-over-year rate was the problem. At 6.5%, it’s the highest since November 2022. A monthly miss doesn’t help much when the annual rate keeps rising.

The bond market ignored the relief. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to between 5.13% and 5.15% after the release, up from 5.10% on Thursday #4. Markets still fully price a December rate hike of at least a quarter point, and some traders are now betting on a half-point move. The 2-year dipped after the data but is still on track for its worst week since 2024. A risk-free 5% gives every fund manager a reason to hold Treasuries instead of an asset that pays nothing. It also raises the cost of every leveraged position in crypto.

Bitcoin is trading with rates, not chips. 10x Research found that between Nov. 5 and Nov. 12, Bitcoin fell 5.9% while the Nasdaq 100 rose 6.4%. Over the same stretch, it tracked gold, which fell 5.5% as the 10-year went through 5% #1. That points to a different driver than the Nvidia story. Bitcoin is being priced as a non-yielding asset in a rising-yield market, the same way gold is. On Friday, tech joined the decline. Wall Street gave up its opening gains, and the Nasdaq fell more than 1.5% as Nvidia extended its slide #16.

The Nvidia story got messier. Employees are pushing the board to bring Jensen Huang back #17, and Congress has summoned Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick over chip exports to China #18. Beijing is warning against new US chip curbs #19. None of that is crypto news. But Nvidia sits at the center of the AI trade, which has been the main source of risk appetite this year, and a leadership fight there now includes Congress and Beijing.

Oil is keeping the inflation story alive. Brent is set for a second weekly loss, but it’s still around $95 #5. Trump said a deal with Iran isn’t needed and he’ll keep the blockade in place. Iran’s military says four tankers were hit by explosions in Hormuz after ignoring warnings. The Houthis say they hit a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and an oil facility in Yanbu. Iranian officials threatened an “unlimited response” over the strait #22. The UN nuclear watchdog says it is “increasingly concerned” about an Iranian site it can’t inspect #21. Al Jazeera is asking whether Netanyahu could order a strike before he leaves office #20. Oil at $95 with all of that in play keeps the 6.5% PPI from looking temporary, and that’s what keeps yields where they are.

Who is pushing, and why. The selling is landing on a market with almost no liquidity. Talos measured Bitcoin’s 1% order-book depth across Binance, Kraken and Coinbase at $72 million on Nov. 9, about 33% below normal. Perpetual futures open interest sat near its highs at about 463,000 BTC and kept rising as the price fell #2. That means traders were adding leveraged positions into the decline, most likely shorts betting on more downside. More than $1.3 billion in futures was liquidated in 24 hours, $677 million of it in Bitcoin. Decrypt’s sources described it as “concentrated liquidation” on top of “weakening” spot demand #7. In a book that thin, a few motivated sellers can move the price a long way.

Institutional Pulse

ETF flows for 2026 are now negative. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $284 million on Thursday. That was the sixth straight outflow day, with IBIT accounting for about $204 million #8. It pushed the funds to $1.56 billion in net outflows for the year. On Oct. 29 they were still up about $1.01 billion #2. That’s a $2.5 billion reversal in two weeks. This is also the 12th week this year with more than $500 million in outflows, compared with 15 such weeks in all of 2025.

The 13Fs show where institutions stood on Sept. 30, not today. Jane Street raised its Fidelity Bitcoin ETF position nearly eightfold and cut its IBIT stake #9. JPMorgan reported a 36% rise in its Strategy shares and $540 million in IBIT #10. Twenty One Capital booked $1.09 billion of Q3 net income on Bitcoin gains #11. All of those filings are snapshots from the end of September, before this month’s slide. They tell you who was positioned before the break, not who is buying at $68,000. A market maker like Jane Street also often holds ETF shares to hedge trades, so a bigger position isn’t necessarily a bullish bet.

Retail volume has dried up. Kraken’s parent Payward reported a 66% drop in Q3 adjusted EBITDA and is moving into prediction markets and AI personal-finance tools #12. Gemini’s quarterly retail trading volume fell to a three-year low #13. When exchanges look for revenue outside crypto trading, it tells you how few new retail traders are coming in.

Old coins moved. Two addresses that had been dormant for more than 16 years moved 100 BTC. That’s coins bought for about $6 and now worth about $6.9 million #14. It’s small next to ETF flows. But early holders moving coins in a fear spike is the kind of supply that can hit an order book already 33% thinner than normal.

Why OTC matters more this week. With only $72 million of bids within 1% of the price, a single 1,000-coin block, worth about $68 million, would use up nearly all of it. A large buyer won’t put that order on an exchange. They’ll buy it through an OTC desk, where it doesn’t show up in the price. That’s why falls on exchanges can look worse than the actual supply and demand behind them, and why the first ETF inflow day is a better sign of a bottom than a green candle.

Calendar Watch

This weekend: Bitcoin’s weekly close. Material Indicators’ Keith Alan watches the weekly RSI. If it closes below 41.5, he says, the “cycle low at $57.7k” comes back into play #6. The 200-week average at about $67,993 is the line to watch. Weekend trading is thinner still, so any move is likely to be exaggerated in either direction.

Nov. 17: Nvidia earnings. The report now comes with pressure from employees to bring Huang back and a congressional summons hanging over it #17 #18. Whatever interim management says about guidance will set the tone for risk assets that week.

December FOMC. CME FedWatch prices a 25 to 50 basis-point hike #2. A full quarter-point is already in the price. Any data that pushes the odds toward 50 basis points is the next leg of pressure. Data that takes 50 off the table is the relief scenario.

Signals Worth Watching

• Retired: BTC $72,000. It was the line to hold on a daily close. It failed on Thursday and the market went straight through $70,000. It’s now overhead resistance, not a signal.
• BTC 200-week average (~$67,993). A weekly close above it makes Friday a test that held. A weekly close below it, with weekly RSI under 41.5, puts the $57,700 cycle low in play #6.
• BTC $70,000. It’s the first level to reclaim. A daily close back above it would put Friday’s break down to thin liquidity rather than a change in trend.
• ETF: the first inflow day. Six straight outflow days and a negative year to date. Nothing changes until a green day prints. Three in a row would be the confirmation.
• Order-book depth. Talos says a rebuild in depth and a turn in capital flows are the foundation for any recovery #1. If 1% depth recovers from $72 million toward normal, the market can take selling without breaking levels.
• Open interest vs. price. OI rising while the price falls means shorts are piling in. If the price stops falling and OI keeps climbing, a short squeeze becomes the risk to the downside view.
• 10-year 5.15%. That’s Friday’s high. A weekly close above it keeps every non-yielding asset under pressure. A drop back toward 5% would be the first sign of relief.
• ETH $2,000. It’s now overhead. A daily close back above it rescues the range, and losing $1,900 opens the next leg down.
• ADA $0.17. It held while BTC fell 4%. Holding through the weekend would make it the first real divergence in weeks.
• Brent $95. Tanker attacks and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure keep it there. A move through $100 would push inflation expectations, and yields, higher.

If I Had $100 This Month

The inflation number came in under forecast and Bitcoin still fell through $70,000, which tells you the pressure is coming from bond yields and thin trading, not from any one headline. You don’t need to call the bottom of a rate cycle to keep buying through it.

• $60 → BTC. It’s sitting on the 200-week average with sentiment at its lowest since July, which is exactly when a fixed monthly buy does more for you than trying to time the bottom.
• $25 → ETH. It lost $2,000 with the rest of the market, but the case for it as a settlement layer hasn’t changed, so the slice stays the same size rather than growing.
• $15 → ADA. It held its floor on a 4% down day for Bitcoin, but with the roadmap declared complete it now has to show adoption, so it stays the smallest weight.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin slides below $70K amid thin liquidity, ETF outflows — Cointelegraph
• #2 — Bitcoin Sinks Below $70K as ETFs Slip Into Red for the Year — Bitbo
• #3 — Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, putting annual rate at 6.5%, the highest in nearly four years — CNBC
• #4–10-year Treasury yield moves to 5.15% as traders weigh producer price report — CNBC
• #5 — Oil prices set for second weekly decline as Trump to stay with Iran blockade — Reuters via Investing.com
• #6 — Bitcoin returns to 200-week trend line as analyst sees risk of $57.7K next — Cointelegraph
• #7 — Bitcoin Drops to $69K On ‘Concentrated Liquidation’ and ‘Weakening’ Demand — Decrypt
• #8 — Bitcoin spot ETFs record $284M net outflow on November 12, sixth consecutive day of outflows — KuCoin News (SoSoValue data)
• #9 — Jane Street boosts Fidelity Bitcoin ETF holdings nearly 8x, trims IBIT — Cointelegraph
• #10 — JPMorgan reports 36% rise in Strategy share holdings and $540 million in BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF — The Block
• #11 — Tether-backed Twenty One Capital reports $1.09 billion Q3 net income on bitcoin gains — The Block
• #12 — Kraken parent Payward posts 66% drop in Q3 adjusted EBITDA — The Block
• #13 — Gemini’s quarterly retail trading volume sinks to 3-year low — Cointelegraph
• #14 — From $6 to $6.9 million: Two dormant Bitcoin addresses wake up to move 100 BTC after more than 16 years — The Block
• #15 — ‘Roadmap is Complete,’ Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Says — Decrypt
• #16 — Wall Street gives up opening gains, Nasdaq falls over 1.5% as Nvidia extends slide — Investing.com
• #17 — Nvidia Employees Push Board to Bring Back Jensen Huang: Report — Decrypt
• #18 — Congress Summons Ex-Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Lutnick Over Chip Exports to China — Decrypt
• #19 — China warns against fresh US chip curbs — Al Jazeera
• #20 — Can Netanyahu launch a strike on Iran before he leaves? — Al Jazeera
• #21 — UN watchdog ‘increasingly concerned’ over uninspected Iran nuclear site — BBC World
• #22 — Iran threatens unlimited response over Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $68,677        -4.16%
Ethereum (ETH)    $1,928.16      -4.03%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1712        +0.25%
Solana (SOL)      $79.80         -2.27%
BNB               $632.30        -3.41%
XRP               $1.02          -0.81%

Fear & Greed: 20 — Extreme Fear  (was 28 yesterday)
S&P 500: -0.81%  ·  Nasdaq: -1.78%  ·  DXY: 103.33 (+0.18%)  ·  Gold: $3,879 (-0.98%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

The Print Was Mild. The Yield Wasn’t. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Jensen Huang’s exit knocked 13% off Nvidia at the open, but the Nasdaq was back in the green within two hours. Bitcoin fell through $72,000 to an 11-week low and stayed there. The shock came from tech, and crypto is the market still paying for it.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $71,974, down 2.96%, and below $72,000 for the first time since Aug. 20 #1. Wednesday’s bounce back above the 200-day average didn’t last a full session. The $73,000 line that held intraday on Wednesday is now overhead. Lean: defensive. A bounce that can’t hold a day says the buyer who absorbed Tuesday’s capitulation isn’t defending every dip.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin is a fixed-supply asset that no government can freeze or dilute, and that case gets stronger as deficits grow and sanctions become a routine policy tool. A CEO resignation at a chipmaker and a hawkish December don’t change the supply schedule. They change how long you wait and what you pay.

Ethereum — short term. $2,013.52, down 3.11%. It traded below $1,990 intraday, under the $2,000 floor that held on Wednesday #2. It’s back above that line, but only just. Lean: bearish below $2,000 on a daily close, neutral above $2,100.

Ethereum — long term. ETH is a bet that the network where tokenized dollars, funds and securities settle will capture value from that settlement. Even in this drawdown, smaller chains are moving onto Ethereum because running their own security costs too much #18. The open question is whether ETH holders, and not just the apps built on Ethereum, capture that value.

Cardano — short term. $0.1714, down 4.01%. It failed at $0.18 and is now drifting toward the $0.17 floor. Lean: weak. There’s no Cardano-specific catalyst, so it’s trading as a high-beta version of the market.

Cardano — long term. At about $6.4 billion in network value, ADA trades at a valuation its current fees and on-chain activity don’t yet support. The same pressure pushing smaller chains toward Ethereum’s security applies here #18. Owning ADA is a bet that its research-first approach eventually earns its own users. Make your own call.

The rest. SOL $81.85 (−3.57%), BNB $657.98 (−4.01%), XRP $1.03 (−3.87%). Solana got the day’s best long-dated headline: the DTCC plans to bring tokenized stocks and Treasuries to Solana in the second half of 2027 #14. That’s a 2027 story and didn’t move price on Thursday.

Why The Market Is Here

The trigger: Nvidia lost its founder overnight. Jensen Huang resigned as CEO, president and board member effective immediately, and CFO Colette Kress became interim CEO #3. Nvidia gave no reason. His exit followed reports of extramarital relationships, including one with a woman US authorities reportedly suspect of having Chinese intelligence ties #2 #21. NVDA fell nearly 13% at the open and later recovered to about 7% down #1. It’s now nearly $2 trillion below its October peak #2.

Why it reached crypto: AI financing depends on Huang’s deals. Nvidia has spent the boom investing in customers that buy its chips, including $2 billion in CoreWeave this year. A BIS study found that more than half of incoming investment in AI firms from 2021 to 2025 came from other AI firms #2. When the person who negotiated those arrangements leaves without warning, investors start doubting the whole funding chain. CoreWeave and Nebius fell 13% to 20% premarket. That doubt hit the most liquid risk assets that trade 24 hours a day, and Bitcoin is one of them.

The tell: stocks recovered and Bitcoin didn’t. The Nasdaq opened about 0.6% lower and was up about 0.33% within two hours. Bitcoin kept falling through the same stretch, as $730 million in crypto liquidations cleared a pocket of bids #1. BitGo’s Greg Cipolaro has the pattern right: Bitcoin has been falling with risk assets and missing their recoveries #6. Equities have dip buyers with earnings to anchor on. Right now, crypto’s dip buyers are thinner and the money waiting to buy is shrinking.

The fuel tank is draining. Glassnode data shows total stablecoin supply fell $14.2 billion in the 30 days to Nov. 9, the fastest contraction since June 2022 #8. Stablecoins are the cash crypto buys with. When that supply shrinks during a selloff, money is leaving crypto altogether, not moving to the sidelines to wait.

Rates and the dollar shut the exit. The bond market reopened after Veterans Day and repriced the week’s hot inflation print. The 10-year Treasury yield went back above 5% and touched 5.058%, its highest since Oct. 22. The 2-year rose 7 basis points to about 4.80% #4 #20. DXY broke above 103 and gold fell 2.6% to about $3,877, its third straight daily drop and well below $4,000 #11. When gold and Bitcoin fall together while the dollar rises, the market is pricing a tighter Fed, not hedging against disorder.

Washington made oil the problem again. Trump posted that the US doesn’t need a deal with Iran: “We’ve got their money… and we’ve got their Strait.” Brent jumped back toward $94 before giving up part of the gain, and the post clouds a Qatari proposal to reopen Hormuz that had reached the White House #5. Al Jazeera calls the standoff “no war, no peace” #13. The threat level is also rising: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was relocated after alleged Iranian threats #12, and UK gas bills are set to rise as the Middle East turmoil continues #19. Oil near $94 with no deal keeps inflation expectations up. That’s why the 10-year is at 5% and the market is pricing hikes, not cuts.

Who is pushing, and why. Three groups are selling at once. ETF holders are cutting risk into year-end, and their average cost is around $81,000 #6. Leveraged longs are being liquidated. And stablecoin holders are cashing out. There’s no single villain here. It’s a steady drain that no buyer has stepped in to match yet.

Institutional Pulse

Wednesday’s ETF outflow tripled. Three days of shrinking outflows ended. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $299.9 million on Wednesday, up from $95 million on Tuesday, for $1.44 billion over five sessions and $1.88 billion so far in November #6. IBIT accounted for $269.7 million of it, about 90%. That’s nine straight sessions of IBIT outflows, totaling more than $2 billion #7. Total ETF assets are $93.7 billion, about 45% below the October 2025 peak.

The basis trade is gone, so the flows now show real demand. The futures basis has fallen below borrowing costs, so hedge funds have exited the trade where they bought ETF shares and shorted futures #6. That means today’s outflows mostly come from investors who wanted Bitcoin exposure and now don’t, rather than from arbitrage unwinding. It’s a cleaner signal, and right now it’s a worse one. Bitfinex found that earlier outflow streaks this year that ended with three straight inflow days led to a median 6.4% gain over the next 10 sessions #7. There hasn’t been a single inflow day yet.

The biggest corporate buyer is losing its index slot. MSCI confirmed it will remove Strategy from its indexes at the end of November #9, which cuts off a source of passive buying. Strategy also spent more than twice as much buying back its preferred shares as it spent on Bitcoin in its latest round #10. The company that set the corporate-treasury template is now putting its cash into its own balance sheet.

Banks keep building anyway. BNY added staking to its digital-asset custody platform through Figment #16. Visa added Western Union’s USDPT stablecoin to its settlement network through Anchorage #15. A $100 million liquidity facility for BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, from Securitize and Ethena, went live #17. None of this is a bid for coins this week. It’s institutions building the infrastructure for crypto even as they sell the price.

OTC context. On Wednesday the coins sold at a loss were absorbed off-exchange. On Thursday the same price zone gave way. If large buyers are still active, they’re working lower bids and letting the order book find them. You’ll see whether they’re there in the first ETF inflow day, not in the headlines.

Calendar Watch

Friday, Nov. 13: October PPI. This is the next volatility event. Material Indicators’ Keith Alan says a cool PPI that lowers the odds of aggressive hikes “could easily flip this script bullish” #1. A hot one, with the 10-year already above 5%, would put a half-point hike back in play.

Nov. 17: Nvidia earnings, its first report under an interim CEO. The question isn’t revenue. It’s whether Nvidia keeps financing its customers #2. Any pullback on that front would hit the AI infrastructure trade, and on this week’s evidence Bitcoin is falling with that trade.

Nov. 30: Strategy leaves MSCI’s indexes. Index funds that track MSCI have to sell their MSTR shares by then. That’s equity selling, not Bitcoin selling, but it weakens Strategy’s ability to raise money to buy more coins.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $72,000 daily close. Thursday’s break was the first since Aug. 20. If it closes below, $70,000 is the next test. Decrypt’s prediction market priced a 93% chance of holding $70,000 through Sunday #6.
• BTC $73,000. The 200-day average and the 21-week moving average now sit together near $73,000 #1. That level was support. Reclaiming it on a daily close would make Thursday a shakeout rather than a breakdown.
• Updated, the ETF signal. Yesterday’s “shrinking outflows” view didn’t survive Wednesday. The test is now stricter: you need an inflow day, and then three in a row, to match the Bitfinex pattern.
• Stablecoin supply. If the 30-day contraction slows or reverses, money is coming back in. If it accelerates, every bounce has less to work with.
• 10-year at 5.06%. That’s Thursday’s high. A close above it after PPI is the hardest setup for every risk asset this quarter.
• DXY 103. It broke on Thursday. Holding above it confirms the dollar is pricing a December hike.
• ETH $2,000. It broke intraday and recovered. A daily close below it is the signal.
• ADA $0.17. It’s the floor of the range. Losing it puts the move into new lows for the cycle.
• Brent $94. Trump’s “no deal needed” post moved oil back toward it. A move through it puts more pressure on yields.

If I Had $100 This Month

The shock came from a chipmaker’s boardroom, and Bitcoin is the asset that kept falling after stocks recovered. You can’t time the end of a drain like this, and you don’t need to if you’re buying on a schedule.

• $60 → BTC. It’s down about 7% this month and trading below where ETF buyers paid on average, which is when a fixed monthly buy does its quiet work.
• $25 → ETH. It’s sitting right on $2,000 with a real infrastructure story underneath, but no buyer has shown up at that line yet, so keep the slice steady.
• $15 → ADA. It’s sliding toward $0.17 with nothing of its own to push it, so the smallest weight stays the right size.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin slides toward $71K as Nvidia stock tumbles after Huang steps down — Cointelegraph
• #2 — Bitcoin plunges to $71k as Jensen Huang abruptly resigns sending Nvidia into $2 trillion wipeout — CryptoSlate
• #3 — Jensen Huang Resigns as Nvidia CEO, With CFO Colette Kress Named Interim Chief — Decrypt
• #4–10-year Treasury yield jumps back above 5% as oil gains and more Fed rate hikes expected — CNBC
• #5 — Oil prices mixed after Trump says no Iran deal needed: ‘We’ve got their Strait’ — CNBC
• #6 — Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $1.4B in Five Days as Investors Cut Risk — Decrypt
• #7 — BlackRock Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $2B over nine sessions — Cointelegraph
• #8 — Stablecoin supply falls $14.2B in biggest 30-day drop since June 2022 — Cointelegraph
• #9 — MSCI confirms Strategy’s removal from indexes at end of November — Cointelegraph
• #10 — Strategy spent more than twice as much on preferred-share buybacks as Bitcoin. Now comes its MSCI exit — CryptoSlate
• #11 — Gold falls below $4,000 as dollar surges, Fed hike bets rise — Kitco
• #12 — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats — BBC World
• #13 — ‘No war, no peace’: Can Iran break the deadlock with the US? — Al Jazeera
• #14 — DTCC to Bring Tokenized Stocks and Treasuries to Solana in 2027 — Decrypt
• #15 — Visa adds Western Union’s USDPT stablecoin to its settlement network in Anchorage tie-up — The Block
• #16 — BNY taps Figment to support staking on its digital asset custody platform — The Block
• #17 — Securitize and Ethena’s $100 million BlackRock BUIDL liquidity facility goes live — The Block
• #18 — Are Alt-L1s over? Security, costs drive smaller chains to Ethereum — Cointelegraph
• #19 — Gas bills to rise as Middle East turmoil persists — BBC Business
• #20 — Treasury Yields Rise as Bond Trading Resumes After Veterans Day — TokenPost
• #21 — Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigns amid spy scandal and market loss — Al Jazeera

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $71,974        -2.96%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,013.52      -3.11%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1714        -4.01%
Solana (SOL)      $81.85         -3.57%
BNB               $657.98        -4.01%
XRP               $1.03          -3.87%

Fear & Greed: 28 — Fear  (was 29 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.14%  ·  Nasdaq: +0.33%  ·  DXY: 103.14 (+0.14%)  ·  Gold: $3,877 (-2.59%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

Nvidia Lost Its Founder. Bitcoin Lost the Line. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Short-term holders dumped about 47,000 BTC at a loss and pushed Bitcoin under its 200-day line, but it bounced back above $74,000. The question now is who absorbed the coins, and whether they come back.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $74,002, up 1.12%. It traded as low as about $72,670 overnight, an 11-week low just under the 200-day average near $73,200, then recovered #3. The low came from forced, loss-taking selling, and the bounce shows that selling was absorbed. Lean: cautious, but less defensive than yesterday. The test is whether the next leg down hits the same buyer or finds nobody there.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s case rests on a supply schedule nobody can change and an asset nobody can freeze. That case gets stronger the longer governments run deficits and use the banking system as a policy weapon. A hawkish Fed and a weak quarter don’t touch that thesis. They change only the price you pay to own it.

Ethereum — short term. $2,074.38, up 2.37%. The $2,000 round number held, and ETH bounced more than BTC, which is what a higher-beta asset does once forced selling stops. Lean: neutral-to-bearish until it closes back above $2,100. Below that line, this is a relief bounce inside a downtrend.

Ethereum — long term. ETH is a bet that the base layer where tokenized dollars, stocks and credit settle captures value from that activity. The tokenization pipeline grew again today (see Institutional Pulse). Whether ETH holders, rather than just the apps built on it, capture that value is the multi-year question.

Cardano — short term. $0.1787, up 3.29%, and back to within a fraction of the $0.18 level it lost on Tuesday. Lean: neutral if it closes above $0.18, weak if it doesn’t. It is still moving with the market, not on anything Cardano-specific.

Cardano — long term. At about $6.7 billion in network value, ADA is priced for much more usage than its fees and on-chain activity show today. Holding it is a bet that a slow, research-first build eventually earns that usage. Make your own call.

The rest. SOL $84.80 (+3.16%) and XRP $1.07 (+3.0%) bounced hardest after Tuesday’s beating. BNB $684.12 (+1.15%) is back above $680. Nomura’s Laser Digital helped launch a Saudi SME credit vault on BNB Chain that targets $100 million #22, a small sign that real-world credit is using the chain as more than an exchange token.

Why The Market Is Here

Who pushed it down: the newest buyers, at a loss. Short-term holders, wallets that bought within roughly the last five months, sent about 47,000 BTC to exchanges while underwater, the largest such flow in months #1. Their average cost basis sits near $75,700, so this year’s buyers are now holding losses as a group. When that group gives up, it sells into weakness rather than strength, and that’s what took Bitcoin under $73,000. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno says a sustained break below $73,000 would strengthen the downtrend case #3.

Who stopped it: someone with a longer clock. At around $74,000, 47,000 BTC is roughly $3.5 billion of supply. That supply hit the market, and the price ended the window higher. Spot ETFs weren’t the buyer, since they were still net sellers (see below). The coins went somewhere off the ETF line, which points to large holders and OTC desks buying from weak hands. Capitulation by recent buyers has often marked local lows, but one day of it is a sign of stress, not proof of a bottom.

Stocks got a catalyst. Crypto got a fraction of it. CoreWeave’s Q3 revenue rose 168% to $3.66 billion, and it lifted its full-year outlook #8. The Nasdaq opened 1.4% higher and Nvidia bounced after losing about $430 billion in market value over two sessions #9 #10. The Nasdaq is up about 1.8%, and Bitcoin is up about 1.1%. On Tuesday they fell together. On Wednesday they rose together, but Bitcoin didn’t keep pace, so risk appetite is coming back to AI stocks first. Nvidia isn’t clear yet either: House Republicans have threatened Jensen Huang with a subpoena and set a Nov. 18 date for a closed-door briefing #11. Anthropic’s IPO roadshow is also underway, and Decrypt spells out what a $1.4 trillion listing means for crypto’s share of speculative money #18.

The dollar kept climbing with the bond market shut. DXY rose another 0.64% to about 102.9, and CME gold fell 1.1% to about $4,009, close to the $4,000 line. With Treasuries closed for Veterans Day, nobody could trade yields, so traders used the dollar to keep betting on a December hike. Two days of dollar-up, gold-down is a market still pricing a tighter Fed, not one hedging for chaos.

Oil stopped being the rescue. Brent briefly fell below $90 on Tuesday for the first time since August before settling at $91.49 #16, and it has since firmed as optimism about peace with Iran faded #15. The reason is visible in Washington. Rubio says the blockade and economic campaign make major combat unnecessary but calls Tehran’s demands “unacceptable” #13. Vance reportedly wants a deal, and Trump is reportedly not convinced one is possible #12. That means pressure without strikes and without a settlement. Al Jazeera is already asking whether Tehran can run a “zero oil” budget if the blockade continues #14, and the US says three Iran-backed suspects plotted attacks in Britain, including an incident at RAF Fairford #17. A blockade that lasts keeps a floor under oil. For crypto, that means oil can no longer be counted on to pull inflation lower.

Institutional Pulse

The ETF bleed is shrinking, not reversing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $95 million on Tuesday, less than half of Monday’s $201 million. It was the third straight day of smaller outflows #5. IBIT lost $78.2 million, its eighth straight losing session, bringing outflows since Oct. 30 to about $1.73 billion #4. Smaller outflows mean selling pressure is fading. Only an inflow day would mean demand is returning.

Quarterly filings show the banks bought before this drawdown. Barclays raised its IBIT stake by 48% in Q3 filings as banks expanded their holdings #6. That’s a September snapshot, not a November flow, but it shows the regulated balance sheets were adding exposure into the top. Deutsche Bank went live with its digital-asset custody service and signed an asset-management deal #7. Trump Media posted a $410 million profit, with Bitcoin gains doing most of the work #21, a reminder that corporate treasuries show their Bitcoin gains on the way up and will show losses on the way down.

The tokenization pipeline keeps filling during a drawdown. Kraken’s parent Payward added more than 200 tokenized UK and EU stocks to xStocks #19, and OKXICE set Nov. 23 to launch a tokenized-securities venue under the SEC’s innovation exemption #20. None of this moves price this week. It is the infrastructure the long-term ETH case is built on.

OTC, and why it matters today. Roughly $3.5 billion of underwater coins hit exchanges, ETFs were net sellers, and price still finished higher. That gap is where OTC desks operate: large buyers take blocks from forced sellers away from the order book, so the chart shows the selling but not the buying. If you’re waiting for a visible sign that big money is stepping in, it may only show up in the ETF data after the price has already moved.

Calendar Watch

Thursday, Nov. 12: the bond market reopens. It’s the first chance for the 10-year to react to Tuesday’s inflation print and Wednesday’s dollar move. A 10-year that clears 5% would undercut Wednesday’s bounce in every risk asset.

Nov. 18: Huang’s requested House briefing. If Nvidia’s governance problem becomes a subpoena fight, the AI trade that carried the Nasdaq this week loses its leader. Crypto has followed tech lower and lagged it higher this month, so that risk goes one way.

Nov. 23: OKXICE launch. The first test of how much trading a tokenized-securities venue can attract under the SEC exemption.

Late December: Christmas options expiry. On Derive, the odds of Bitcoin finishing Christmas below $70,000 have risen from 15% to 31% in a week. The biggest Deribit put positions cluster at $75,000, $72,000 and $70,000, and max pain is at $79,000 #2. That’s a crowded hedge, and crowded hedges can squeeze either way.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $73,000–73,200. The 200-day average and Moreno’s line. It broke intraday and recovered. A daily close below it puts $70,000, where the Christmas puts sit, in play.
• BTC $75,500–75,700. The 50-week average and short-term holders’ cost basis now sit in the same band. Reclaiming it puts this year’s buyers back in profit and removes the reason to capitulate. Until then, every rally runs into breakeven sellers.
• Short-term holder exchange flows. A second 40,000+ BTC loss day that the market absorbs again would look like a washout. A second day that it doesn’t absorb would look like the start of a cascade.
• IBIT’s streak. Eight days. The first inflow day ends it, and that’s the signal to watch, not a smaller outflow.
• ETH $2,100. A close above it turns the bounce into a reclaim. $2,000 is still the floor.
• ADA $0.18. It’s back near the line. A close above it returns ADA to neutral, and a rejection here confirms $0.17 as the range floor.
• DXY 103. A dollar breakout while yields reopen near 5% would be the hardest backdrop crypto has had this quarter.
• Updated, Brent $90. It broke $90 intraday and bounced. With the blockade held in place and no deal in sight, oil looks more likely to hold its floor than fall away.

If I Had $100 This Month

The weakest holders just sold at a loss and someone absorbed their coins. You don’t know who, or whether they’ll be there next time. A monthly schedule means you don’t have to know.

• $60 → BTC. It’s trading just under where this year’s buyers broke even, and a fixed monthly buy here doesn’t depend on calling the capitulation low.
• $25 → ETH. It held $2,000 and bounced harder than BTC, but it’s still below $2,100, so keep it a steady slice rather than a bigger bet.
• $15 → ADA. It’s back at $0.18 with no catalyst of its own, so the smallest weight still fits.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin short-term holders send 47K BTC to exchanges at a loss — Cointelegraph
• #2 — Bitcoin ‘ripe for a squeeze’ as options traders raise odds of sub-$70,000 Christmas — The Block
• #3 — Current price of Bitcoin for Nov. 11, 2026 — Fortune
• #4 — US Bitcoin ETF outflows fall to $95 million as IBIT posts 8th loss in a row — CoinTurk
• #5 — Bitcoin ETF outflows shrink for a third day to $95 million — Cryptopolitan
• #6 — Barclays boosts BlackRock Bitcoin ETF stake 48% as banks expand holdings — Cointelegraph
• #7 — Deutsche Bank goes live with digital asset custody service, signs asset management deal — The Block
• #8 — CoreWeave beats on revenue and lifts guidance, easing AI slowdown concerns — CNBC
• #9 — Nasdaq opens 1.4% higher as CoreWeave earnings boost AI stocks, Nvidia rebounds — Invezz
• #10 — Nvidia Sheds $430B in Two Days as Jensen Huang Faces Calls to Resign — Decrypt
• #11 — House Republicans consider issuing subpoena to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang — ABC News
• #12 — Rubio backs blockade, Vance wants deal: Is Trump’s team split on Iran war? — Al Jazeera
• #13 — No need for major combat operations against Iran given US economic campaign: Rubio — TimesLIVE (Reuters)
• #14 — Can Tehran survive a ‘zero oil’ budget, if US blockade on Iran persists? — Al Jazeera
• #15 — Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades — OilPrice.com
• #16 — Brent crude briefly dips below $90 for first time since August on Iran hopes — CNBC
• #17 — Three Iran-backed suspects plotted attacks including RAF Fairford incident, US says — BBC World
• #18 — Morning Minute: What Anthropic’s $1.4 Trillion IPO Means for Crypto — Decrypt
• #19 — Kraken Parent Payward Brings 200 UK and EU Stocks Onchain as xStocks — Decrypt
• #20 — OKXICE sets Nov. 23 launch for tokenized securities venue under SEC innovation exemption — The Block
• #21 — Trump Media Posts $410 Million Profit. Bitcoin Gains Did the Heavy Lifting — Decrypt
• #22 — Nomura’s Laser Digital helps launch Saudi SME credit vault targeting $100 million on BNB Chain — The Block

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $74,002        +1.12%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,074.38      +2.37%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1787        +3.29%
Solana (SOL)      $84.80         +3.16%
BNB               $684.12        +1.15%
XRP               $1.07          +3.00%

Fear & Greed: 29 — Fear  (was 32 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.99%  ·  Nasdaq: +1.81%  ·  DXY: 102.90 (+0.64%)  ·  Gold: $4,009 (-1.11%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

The Tourists Sold. Someone Took the Coins. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Brent slid again on peace hopes, but October’s hot inflation came from rent and food, a December hike went to 96% odds, and Bitcoin fell onto its 200-day line.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $73,206, down 2.84%. The attempt to get back above the 50-week average (about $75,500) failed, and CPI pushed it the other way: Bitcoin traded near $73,900 after the print #6 and is now sitting on the 200-day average at about $73,200. Lean: cautious, tilting defensive. Monday’s selling was leverage. Tuesday’s was the cost of money, and that seller doesn’t run out after one day.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin is a fixed-supply bearer asset that no central bank can issue and no government can freeze. Over a multi-year horizon, that matters most when debt keeps growing and access to the financial system is used as leverage. A Fed hiking into sticky inflation makes the next few months harder. It doesn’t change the reason to hold it.

Ethereum — short term. $2,027.54, down 5.44%, through the $2,100 support that held Monday and a fresh low for this move. Lean: bearish, with $2,000 the round number now directly underneath. A rate shock hits the higher-beta asset harder, and ETH is still the one carrying the most leverage.

Ethereum — long term. Ethereum is the settlement layer most tokenized dollars and securities are being built on, and the bet is that ETH stays the collateral underneath that activity. Vitalik Buterin is now openly framing ETH as a store of value rather than just gas #22. That is a claim the market has to price over years, not a fix for this quarter.

Cardano — short term. $0.1731, down 4.72%. Monday’s dip under $0.18 looked like a wick. Tuesday turned it into a break. Lean: neutral-to-weak below $0.18, with $0.17 the next level to watch. There’s still nothing Cardano-specific in the tape. It’s moving with the board.

Cardano — long term. At about $6.5 billion in network value, ADA is priced well above what its current fees and DeFi activity generate. Owning it is a bet that its slow, peer-reviewed build eventually brings the usage to close that gap. Make your own call.

The rest. XRP $1.04 (−6.22%) and SOL $82.30 (−6.18%) took the hardest hits among the majors. BNB $676.62 (−1.89%) slipped through the $680 cushion it had held.

Why The Market Is Here

The inflation isn’t coming from oil anymore. October CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% consensus, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2% #1. Energy, the driver in September, rose just 0.7%. The pressure came from shelter, rent and food #2. Core has now printed 0.3% three months running #4. That matters for crypto because it breaks the trade markets have leaned on for weeks: if Hormuz calms down, oil falls, inflation fades, and the Fed relaxes. Tuesday proved the first two steps can happen without the third.

Who pushed? The Fed, out loud. Governor Waller said he would back a quarter-point hike in December even if inflation improved, and that a half-point should be on the table if core prints 0.3% or more #5 #3. Core then printed exactly 0.3%. December hike odds jumped from about 76% to 96% #5. The 10-year yield rose to about 4.99%, the dollar index gained 0.6%, and CME gold fell 1.5%. When gold falls alongside a rising dollar, the market is paying for real yield, not hedging chaos. Binance Research argues that global tightening is slowing and that Bitcoin benefits when it does #21. That may be true elsewhere, but the US is the exception, and the US sets the dollar’s price.

Monday’s split is over, and that’s the clearer signal. Yesterday, stocks rallied and crypto fell, which pointed at a crypto-only seller. Today the S&P and Nasdaq both fell (−0.6% and −0.75% intraday) alongside Bitcoin. A shared move points at a shared cause: the price of money. Leverage flushes end when positions are gone. Rate repricing ends when the Fed says so, and Waller just said December.

The peace track kept oil falling, which makes the CPI miss worse, not better. Trump called renewed strikes on Iran “highly unlikely” if talks make progress #7, and after his call with Qatar’s prime minister said Gulf states prefer the blockade status quo to new action #8. Brent fell another 2% to about $90.72. But the conflict is still hot underneath: Iran has dropped its 2,000km cap on missile range #10, Saudi-Houthi attacks are escalating #11, and Al Jazeera’s read is “positive momentum,” not a deal #9. If cheaper oil couldn’t produce a soft print, a peace deal is no longer a guaranteed rescue for risk assets.

Risk capital also has a new $1.3 trillion destination. Anthropic set its IPO range at a valuation of up to about $1.3–1.4 trillion #25. A listing that size pulls growth money toward one ticket at the same moment rates are pulling it toward bonds. That’s not why Bitcoin fell today, but it is one more reason the marginal speculative dollar isn’t rushing back.

Institutional Pulse

The ETF bleed slowed, but it hasn’t stopped. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on Monday, a smaller number than last week’s pace, with BlackRock’s IBIT down $213 million on its own #12. That’s seven straight sessions and about $1.66 billion out of IBIT since Oct. 30 #13. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT took in $22 million, a small sign that new wirehouse channels are buying while the biggest fund is being sold. Net, the year-to-date figure is about −$1.1 billion against roughly +$25 billion at this point in 2024 and 2025 #12.

The earnings show where the retail money went. eToro’s Q3 profit fell 74% on weaker crypto trading #16. Canaan’s revenue fell 90% as mining-rig sales collapsed #17. BitGo’s profit nearly doubled on crypto gains while revenue fell 51% #18. Trading desks and hardware makers are reporting a quiet quarter. That fits a market where the selling is institutional and the dip-buyers aren’t showing up in volume.

Washington is pruning the offshore routes. Binance has halted transfers to and from MEXC after FinCEN named the exchange a primary money-laundering concern and cut it off from the US financial system #14. FinCEN says MEXC handled at least $16 billion in illicit flows from 2021 to 2026 #15. That’s not a market-wide solvency event, but it does mean some offshore leverage just lost its on-ramp. Meanwhile, the regulated side kept connecting: Moody’s is testing credit-rating delivery across chains with Chainlink #23, and Visa added Monad to its stablecoin settlement options #24.

Policy risk, new data point. Elizabeth Warren, crypto’s sharpest critic in the Senate, is set to chair the Banking Committee in January and is promising “tough questions” on prediction markets and Trump-linked crypto #19 #20. The committee that writes market-structure rules will be run by the person most likely to slow them down. If you’re holding on the assumption of a friendly 2027 legislative calendar, that window just got shorter.

OTC, quietly. Two days of forced and rate-driven selling into the 200-day average is the kind of tape where large buyers prefer to work off-exchange. The tell will be the ETF line, not the price: if Tuesday’s flow (released after this window) comes in near flat while BTC sits on $73,000, someone is absorbing size without chasing the screen.

Calendar Watch

Wednesday, Nov. 11: Veterans Day. US stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, so the 10-year can’t confirm or reverse Tuesday’s move until Thursday. Expect thinner macro signal and a crypto tape that trades on its own flows for a day.

Dec. 10: November CPI, which brings the year-over-year rate back after October’s shutdown gap #4. With core at 0.3% for three months and Waller’s half-point marker already hit, that print could decide between a 25bp and a 50bp hike at December’s meeting.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $73,200 (200-day average). A daily close below it puts Wintermute’s $68,000 support in play. Holding it through Wednesday’s bond-market holiday would mean the rate shock is priced for now.
• BTC $75,500 (50-week average). Still the reclaim level. Until it’s back above, every bounce runs into it as resistance.
• ETH $2,000. A daily close below the round number opens the next leg. Getting back above $2,100 would mean Tuesday was an overshoot.
• ADA $0.17. Now that $0.18 is lost, this is the next floor. Reclaiming $0.18 on a close would bring it back to neutral.
• The 10-year at 5%. A clean break above it on Thursday tightens financial conditions for every risk asset. A pullback to 4.85% would say the market overreacted to one print.
• 50bp odds for December. If they climb above roughly 20%, expect another leg of de-risking across crypto. They were around 10% after the print.
• Brent $90. Below it, oil is clearly no longer the inflation story, which puts all the pressure on shelter and wages and keeps the Fed hawkish regardless of Hormuz.
• Retired: the stocks-up/BTC-down split from Monday. It lasted one session and closed today with both falling together. It was a leverage event, not a lasting decoupling.

If I Had $100 This Month

The Fed just told you it’s hiking into December, and Bitcoin is sitting on its 200-day line. A fixed schedule lets you buy through a rate shock without having to guess the low.

• $60 → BTC. It’s testing the 200-day average, and a monthly buy here doesn’t depend on whether that line holds.
• $25 → ETH. It broke $2,100 and is carrying the most leverage, so keep it a measured slice rather than chasing the discount.
• $15 → ADA. It lost $0.18 with no catalyst of its own, so the smallest weight still fits.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Inflation remained elevated in October, CPI report shows, upping odds of Fed interest rate hike — CBS News
• #2 — ‘Not great’: October CPI inflation rises 0.4% as food and rent costs spike — Yahoo Finance
• #3 — CPI Report Shows Core Prices Up 0.3% Again, Hitting Waller’s Line for Weighing a Half Point Hike — StockTitan
• #4 — October CPI rose 0.4% as government shutdown blocks most annual rates — Quartz
• #5 — Bitcoin price eyes $74K as Fed rate-hike bets hit 96% after Waller speech — Cointelegraph
• #6 — Bitcoin Price Trades Near $73,900 After Hot CPI Print — Bitcoin Magazine
• #7 — Trump says restarting Iran war ‘highly unlikely,’ warns he could strike — CNBC
• #8 — Trump says renewed Iran strikes ‘quite unlikely’ as Gulf allies back blockade status quo — investingLive
• #9 — ‘Positive momentum’: Is the US war on Iran about to end? — Al Jazeera
• #10 — Iran lifts 2,000km limit on its ballistic missiles: What that means — Al Jazeera
• #11 — Attacks escalate between Saudi-led forces and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis — Al Jazeera
• #12 — Bitcoin ETF Outflows Slow to $201M as IBIT Losses Hit $1.7B — Cointelegraph
• #13 — Investors pull money from BlackRock’s IBIT for a seventh straight day — Cryptopolitan
• #14 — Binance Halts MEXC Transfers as FinCEN Cuts Exchange Off From US Financial System — Decrypt
• #15 — Binance blocks MEXC transfers after FinCEN’s $16B crackdown — crypto.news
• #16 — eToro’s Q3 profit plunges 74% as weaker crypto trading weighs on earnings — The Block
• #17 — Canaan’s Q3 revenue plunges 90% to $14.5 million as bitcoin mining hardware sales slump — The Block
• #18 — BitGo Q3 profit nearly doubles on crypto gains as revenue falls 51% — Cointelegraph
• #19 — ‘Tough Questions’ Ahead: Warren Targets Prediction Markets, Trump Crypto as Banking Chair — Decrypt
• #20 — Crypto’s Toughest Critic, Set to Chair Senate Banking: Can She Move Prices? — BeInCrypto
• #21 — Bitcoin may benefit as global tightening slows, Binance Research says — Cointelegraph
• #22 — Morning Minute: Vitalik Recasts ETH as a Store of Value — Decrypt
• #23 — Moody’s and Chainlink test cross-chain credit ratings distribution — The Block
• #24 — Visa adds Monad to stablecoin settlement network options — The Block
• #25 — Anthropic heads for lower than expected $1.3 trillion valuation in stock market debut — BBC Business

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $73,206        -2.84%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,027.54      -5.44%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1731        -4.72%
Solana (SOL)      $82.30         -6.18%
BNB               $676.62        -1.89%
XRP               $1.04          -6.22%

Fear & Greed: 32 — Fear  (was 29 yesterday)
S&P 500: -0.62%  ·  Nasdaq: -0.75%  ·  DXY: 102.27 (+0.61%)  ·  Gold: $4,052 (-1.51%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

The Oil Fell. The Rent Didn’t. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Oil fell almost 4% and the Nasdaq jumped more than 2% on Iran deal hopes, but Bitcoin closed its fifth red week below a line it had held for two months, and $1 billion in leveraged longs paid for it.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $75,379, down 0.82%. The fifth straight red week is now confirmed: the weekly candle closed near $74,850 against an open around $78,300, and below the 50-week moving average (about $75,500) for the first time since early September #1 #2. Monday then broke Friday’s $74,722 low and briefly traded under $74,000 before recovering. Lean: cautious. The price is back up against the 50-week line from below. If it can’t get back above it, that line becomes resistance instead of support. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn says his bullish case holds if Bitcoin reclaims it within a month #4.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin is a fixed-supply asset that no government can print or freeze, at a time when sovereign debt keeps growing and financial access is increasingly used as a policy tool. A leverage flush and five weeks of ETF redemptions change who holds it at what price. They don’t change why it’s held. Over a multi-year horizon, that asymmetry is still the reason to own it.

Ethereum — short term. $2,143.92, down 4.29%, its lowest level since August #11. It took the worst of the flush: about $449 million in ETH liquidations, more than any other asset and over 90% of them longs #11. The ETH/BTC ratio is at its weakest since July #12. Lean: bearish below $2,200, with $2,100 as the support traders are defending and $2,000 behind it.

Ethereum — long term. Ethereum is the main settlement layer for tokenized dollars and, increasingly, tokenized securities. Its value depends on that activity growing and on ETH staying the collateral underneath it. Treasury firms are still accumulating: Bitmine is close to holding 5% of the supply #20, and Sharplink’s $751 million Q3 profit came from unrealized ether gains, a reminder that those balance sheets mark to market in both directions #21. This is a multi-year adoption bet, and this week’s price isn’t evidence either way.

Cardano — short term. $0.1817, up 0.47%, the only one of the six majors in the green. Yesterday’s dip under $0.18 didn’t hold, so for now it was a wick, not a break. Lean: neutral while it stays above $0.18. Nothing Cardano-specific is driving it. ADA simply had less leverage to unwind than ETH.

Cardano — long term. ADA’s network value is around $6.8 billion, while its on-chain fees and DeFi activity are a small fraction of that. Holding it means betting that a slow, formally verified build eventually attracts usage that justifies the price. Make your own call.

The rest. XRP $1.11 (−3.83%) lost its $1.15 area. SOL $87.73 (−2.20%) is moving further below $90. BNB $689.59 (−1.14%) still has about 1.4% of room above $680.

Why The Market Is Here

The peace trade went everywhere except crypto. Qatar’s prime minister met Trump at the White House on Monday, bringing the Hormuz framework Iran has been reviewing #7. Oil traders priced the meeting before any outcome: Brent fell about 3.5% to roughly $94.84, and the Dow jumped more than 500 points #6. The S&P 500 was up about 2.1% and the Nasdaq about 2.6% in early trading, even though Nvidia fell 5% after its board opened an investigation into reports about Jensen Huang #5 #24. Cheaper oil means lower inflation expectations a day before CPI, and that is exactly the relief risk assets have been waiting for.

Crypto didn’t get it, and the reason is inside crypto. Last week, Bitcoin and stocks fell together, so it was fair to call equities a correlated drag. Monday broke that link. Stocks rose 2% and Bitcoin still fell. Who was pushing? Leverage. Over 24 hours, $1.15 billion in positions were liquidated, $1.04 billion of them longs #1. Wintermute notes that Ethereum liquidations were larger than Bitcoin’s #3. Five weeks of ETF redemptions brought prices down to the levels where traders had stacked their stops. Once the weekly close lost the 50-week average, those stops fired. That’s a forced seller, not a new one. Forced sellers run out, but only once their positions have been closed.

The war is still being fought while the talks go on. The IRGC says three tankers using a route it calls unauthorized, “in coordination with” US forces, were hit near Hormuz #9. Iran is sticking to its conditions for ending the war #8. On Iran’s demands, Rubio says he doesn’t see an imminent breakthrough #7. In Riyadh, Houthi strikes hit the Aramco Tower #10. Even so, Brent fell. The oil market is betting on the White House meeting and looking past the tanker fires. If that bet is wrong, the reversal hits right as CPI comes out.

Gold and the dollar read it the same way. CME gold rose 1.3% to about $4,129 and the DXY slipped to 101.91. A softer dollar and a bid for gold point to expectations of lower inflation and lower yields. In past cycles, Bitcoin would have joined that move. This time it was still dealing with its own leverage.

Institutional Pulse

Strategy bought, but bought its own paper first. Strategy added 1,036 BTC for about $82 million, taking its holdings to 850,364 BTC #13. In the same filing it bought back $188 million of its STRC preferred stock #14. That’s more than twice as much spent supporting its capital structure as buying bitcoin. The largest corporate holder is still buying, but at a slower pace, and it’s also spending on its own balance sheet.

The Binance hack isn’t spreading. Analysts see no wider contagion from the $6.3 billion Binance hack #15. Elliptic reports that the launderers are minting homemade memecoins to move the stolen funds through small, illiquid pools #16. That keeps the stolen coins away from major order books, and it’s one reason Monday’s selling looked like a leverage problem rather than a solvency scare.

The plumbing keeps getting built through the drawdown. Coinbase’s national trust bank charter from the OCC is now in effect, making it the third crypto firm with one after Circle and Ripple #17. It also expanded its partnership with PNC to offer USDC payments to corporate clients #18. The NYSE picked Avalanche to settle its planned 24/7 tokenized stock platform #19. Last week, the Magnificent Seven kept their shares off one tokenized venue. Now the exchange that lists them is building its own. Institutions are building rails while prices fall, and their timeline is longer than a quarter.

OTC, quietly. Days with $1 billion in forced liquidations are when large buyers can fill size off-exchange without moving the screen price. If Monday’s ETF print, released in the US evening and outside this window, comes in flat or positive despite this tape, that suggests someone was absorbing the selling.

Policy risk got a trigger. A Senate records deadline is now in force for Binance, Tether and Trump-linked crypto firms, including World Liberty Financial #22. Trump says he knows “nothing” about WLF #23. Coming after the midterms, Congressional scrutiny of the President’s own crypto ties is the kind of friction that can shorten crypto’s legislative window. Treat crypto as a policy-risk asset here. The friendly rules came from executive action, and the oversight now comes from Congress.

Calendar Watch

Tuesday 22:30 JST: October CPI. The consensus is 0.3% headline and about 0.2% core month over month, down from September’s 0.6% headline #25. One wrinkle: there may be no official year-over-year headline rate, because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown #26. Expect the market to react to the monthly figures instead. With Brent down nearly 4% the day before, a soft print would help risk assets, while a hot one would test whether Monday’s stock rally was real.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $75,500 (50-week average). A daily close back above it with no new liquidation spike would mean the flush is done. Repeated failures there turn it into resistance.
• BTC $73,200 → $68,000. The 200-day average is the first floor below Monday’s sub-$74,000 low. Wintermute names $68,000 as the next support if it fails, and $80,000 as the level that would change the outlook #3.
• ETH $2,100. This is where Monday’s selling stopped. A daily close below it opens up $2,000. Reclaiming $2,200 would mean the liquidation cascade has run its course.
• Stocks up, BTC down, again on Tuesday. One day of decoupling is a leverage event. If it lasts through a soft CPI print, crypto has a demand problem that macro relief can’t fix.
• Brent after the White House meeting. Monday’s drop priced in a deal that hasn’t been announced. If Brent goes back above $98 without a readout, the oil market has lost confidence in it.
• Monday’s ETF flows. This is the first print after US spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative for the year. Another $300 million or more out means the allocator selling hasn’t finished.

If I Had $100 This Month

Forced sellers just cleared $1 billion of leverage on a day when everything else rallied. A fixed monthly buy is how you take advantage of a flush like that without trying to time the bottom.

• $60 → BTC. It’s back at the 50-week line after the leverage flush, and a steady schedule buys there without needing to know whether it holds.
• $25 → ETH. It took the biggest liquidation hit and is at a multi-month low against BTC, so you’re adding at a weak point without adding more weight.
• $15 → ADA. It held $0.18 while the rest of the board fell, but there’s still no catalyst, so keep this position the smallest.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin loses 50-week moving average as 24-hour crypto long liquidations top $1 billion — The Block
• #2 — Bitcoin Closes Below 50-Week Moving Average for First Time in 8 Weeks; 24-Hour Long Liquidations Top $1 Billion — Bloomingbit
• #3 — Wintermute: Bitcoin’s weekly close is below the 50-week moving average — ChainCatcher
• #4 — Bitcoin Falls Below 50-Week Moving Average: Galaxy Analyst — Phemex News
• #5 — Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise with Nvidia stock, AI trade in focus — Yahoo Finance
• #6 — Stock Market Today: Dow Jumps 540 Points, S&P 500 Rallies as Oil Crashes 5% — Coinpaper
• #7 — Trump to meet Qatari prime minister about mediation efforts with Iran — Axios
• #8 — Iran stands by demands to end the war as US ramps up military pressure — Al Jazeera
• #9 — IRGC strikes three tankers near Hormuz over ‘US links’ — Al Jazeera
• #10 — Aramco Tower hit in heart of Saudi capital as Houthis launch fresh strikes — BBC World
• #11 — Why is Ethereum price down today, November 9? — crypto.news
• #12 — Ethereum below $2,100: ETH/BTC at its lowest since July — CryptoTicker
• #13 — Strategy buys 1,036 Bitcoin as BTC holdings climb to 850,364 — Cointelegraph
• #14 — Strategy Buys $82M in Bitcoin, Buys Back $188M of STRC — Decrypt
• #15 — Analysts see no broader ‘contagion’ from $6.3B Binance hack — Cointelegraph
• #16 — Binance hack launderers mint homemade Elon Musk, animal memecoins to move stolen funds: Elliptic — The Block
• #17 — Coinbase Joins Circle, Ripple With Final OCC Approval for Federal Trust Bank Charter — Decrypt
• #18 — Coinbase and PNC Bank expand partnership with USDC payments for corporate clients — The Block
• #19 — NYSE to settle tokenized stocks on Avalanche in planned 24/7 market — The Block
• #20 — Tom Lee’s Bitmine nears 5% Ethereum supply target with $20 million ETH buy — The Block
• #21 — Ethereum treasury Sharplink’s Q3 net income hits $751 million on unrealized ether gains — The Block
• #22 — Binance, Tether and Trump crypto firms face Senate records deadline — Cointelegraph
• #23 — Trump Says He Knows ‘Nothing’ About World Liberty Financial as He Defends UAE Ties — Decrypt
• #24 — Nvidia Board Investigates Jensen Huang After Report He Was Target of Chinese Spy Effort — Decrypt
• #25 — October CPI Report: What the Inflation Data Is Expected to Show — Kiplinger
• #26 — Next CPI Report on November 10 Will Have No Yearly Inflation Rate for Overall Prices — StockTitan

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $75,379        -0.82%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,143.92      -4.29%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1817        +0.47%
Solana (SOL)      $87.73         -2.20%
BNB               $689.59        -1.14%
XRP               $1.11          -3.83%

Fear & Greed: 29 — Fear  (was 28 yesterday)
S&P 500: +2.08%  ·  Nasdaq: +2.58%  ·  DXY: 101.91 (-0.38%)  ·  Gold: $4,129 (+1.34%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

Stocks Got the Peace Rally. Crypto Got the Margin Call. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Bitcoin is about to log only the third five-week losing streak since 2017, yet no single week has cost more than 3.3% and the fear gauge just ticked up on a flat price.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $75,922, up 0.34%. Saturday traded in a $700 range and Sunday in an even tighter one #1. The week opened at $78,232, so unless price rallies about 3% before 09:00 JST Monday, this becomes the fifth straight red weekly candle. That’s happened only twice since 2017: in 2022 it was the middle of a 41% slide, and in February 2026 it marked the turn #1. The streak tells you less than how it’s unfolding. This streak totals about 12%, against 18% and 28% at the same point in those earlier runs. Lean: cautious, but not capitulating. Friday’s $74,722 low is the floor that matters. Below it, the 200-day average near $73,200 comes into play.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). The case for Bitcoin rests on a fixed supply in a world where governments keep borrowing and can create money or freeze accounts at will. Five weeks of slow redemptions change who holds the coins, not that logic. Over a multi-year horizon, that’s still the asymmetry worth owning.

Ethereum — short term. $2,235.83, up 0.20%. ETH lost only about 1.35% on the week, which made it one of the steadiest large caps while NEAR, BCH, HYPE and XLM each fell more than 10% #2. It’s still under $2,300, so the lean stays cautious. Two daily closes back above that level turn it neutral.

Ethereum — long term. Vitalik Buterin said this weekend that ETH should be valued as a store of value, not as a token whose worth comes from fees being burned #15. That gives up the old “ultrasound money” pitch in favour of a simpler one. ETH is the collateral and settlement asset of the largest open financial network, and the bet is that tokenized dollars and securities increasingly clear there. That’s a multi-year adoption call, not a quarterly one.

Cardano — short term. $0.1799, down 0.88%, and now a fraction of a cent under the $0.18 level we’ve been watching. It’s down 6.85% on the week #2, roughly five times Ethereum’s weekly loss. A daily close below $0.18 confirms the break, and nothing Cardano-specific is driving the move either way.

Cardano — long term. ADA carries a market value near $6.8 billion, priced on a network built slowly and with formal methods, while on-chain fees and activity remain a small fraction of that. Owning it is a wager that usage eventually grows into the valuation. Make your own call.

The rest. BNB $696.81 (+0.51%) is the day’s best major and holds about 2.5% over $680. XRP $1.16 (−0.10%) lost 7.2% on the week. SOL $89.33 (−0.14%) is still pinned just under $90 #2.

Why The Market Is Here

A slide, not a crash. Bitcoin’s weekly closes since early October run $86,507, $83,678, $82,007, $80,053 and $78,231. Each week lost between 2% and 3.3%, with no single flush #1. This is what steady distribution looks like. Who is pushing? Allocators trimming through ETFs, and with the latest outflows the US spot Bitcoin funds have now flipped negative on net for 2026 as a whole #3. The year’s inflows have been fully handed back. Nobody is panicking, but the buyers who showed up in the first half of the year have been walking out a few hundred million dollars at a time.

Sentiment moved before price did. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 25 to 28, out of “Extreme Fear” and into “Fear,” on a weekend when Bitcoin barely moved #1. Two days without a retest of Friday’s low were enough to calm people down a little. That’s thin evidence, but it’s the right direction. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues Bitcoin “swept the lows” and needs to clear $76,000 to build momentum #2. It’s sitting just below that level now.

Washington took the blockade overland. CENTCOM has stood up “Task Force Iron Gate” to disrupt Iranian weapons shipments across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea, which extends the naval blockade onto land routes #4. Iran’s military dismissed it as “word play” and says its trade routes remain open #5. In parallel, the US is offering a $20 million reward for information on Iran’s nuclear programme #8. This is pressure stacked on top of talks, not a replacement for them. Under Qatar’s bridge proposal, the US would ease the port blockade and release some frozen funds, then Iran would admit IAEA inspectors and reopen Hormuz. Iran is still reviewing it, a senior Iranian official says the sides remain far apart, and feedback from both capitals was expected within about 36 hours #6. Further south, the Houthis say a Saudi air strike killed at least 33 people in Yemen #7, a reminder that the Red Sea route is part of the same risk map.

Why it matters for you. Brent last settled at $98.32 on Friday, and oil doesn’t trade on weekends. Monday’s open is the first chance for the oil market to price a land blockade and a pending Qatari answer at the same time. If the deal stalls and Brent climbs, inflation expectations rise just before Tuesday’s CPI. That works against Bitcoin through the same channel that has driven the selling: rate expectations, the dollar and allocator risk budgets.

Stocks are a correlated drag, not the cause. MarketWatch notes US stocks are moving in sync again for the first time in a while, during what it calls the biggest selloff in more than a year #9, while S&P 500 earnings are beating estimates by the narrowest margin in about four years #10. Friday’s AI-chip bounce brought relief, but whether it lasts is an open question #11. When everything moves together, Bitcoin trades as one more risk line on the screen, and that’s what the last five weeks have looked like.

Institutional Pulse

The year’s net ETF demand is gone. After the worst week since June, cumulative 2026 flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs are now negative #3. Monday’s print, released in the US evening, is the first read on whether that marks a low point or a trend. Ether funds lost $365 million over the same week #2.

Exchange risk, two new data points. Binance’s CFO Kaiser Ng is stepping down nine days after the exchange’s record hack. Co-CEO Yi He says the transition was planned six months ago #14. Separately, Binance France is emailing users that their accounts close on December 31, with monthly fees on remaining assets starting November 29 #12, and users in some other European countries have received similar notices #13. When an exchange can set a deadline and charge you rent for holding your coins there, the case for moving to self-custody makes itself.

Tokenization hit a wall. All seven of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies have now asked to keep their shares off the planned OKX–ICE tokenized trading venue, with Apple and Meta the last to object #16. Issuers want control over where their equity trades. For anyone betting on tokenized stocks, this shows the bottleneck is corporate consent, not technology.

A floor you can feel. In Finland, some homes get free heat from Bitcoin miners’ waste energy, but only as long as BTC stays above $70,000 #17. It’s a small story, but a concrete reminder that miner economics have hard break-even lines, and $70,000 is roughly 8% below today’s price.

Calendar Watch

Monday 09:00 JST: the weekly close. Above $78,232 ends the streak. A close anywhere near current levels makes it five red weeks, a loss of just over 3% for the week #1.

Tuesday Nov 10, 22:30 JST: US October CPI #18. This is the first major data print since the market started pricing a December hike. A hot number lands on top of a fifth red week and any Monday oil spike. A soft one is the easiest way out of the streak.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $74,722. Friday’s low. A daily close below it means the absorption that’s held for two days has stepped back, and $73,200 (200-day average) is next.
• BTC $76,000 / $77,300. Clearing $76,000 is the first sign of momentum. The 100-day average near $77,300 is the level that would make this week look like a shakeout.
• ETF flows, Monday. One flat or green day after the year-to-date flip would say the rebalancing is done. Another $300 million+ outflow day says it isn’t.
• ADA $0.18. Now fractionally below. A daily close under it confirms the break. Reclaiming it within a day or two would make this a wick.
• Brent at Monday’s open. Iron Gate plus the pending Qatari answer. A move toward $105 without a deal headline means the oil market has stopped pricing peace.
• CPI vs. expectations. A hot print plus Brent strength is the combination that could turn a slow slide into a faster one.

If I Had $100 This Month

The market is grinding lower in small, orderly steps while sentiment stabilizes ahead of a key inflation print. A fixed monthly buy doesn’t need to know which week ends the streak.

• $60 → BTC. Five red weeks have taken about 12% off, slowly enough that a schedule averages into it instead of chasing it.
• $25 → ETH. It held up better than most large caps this week, and its long-term pitch just got simpler.
• $15 → ADA. It’s sitting right on its line with no catalyst, so keep this position the smallest and let the fixed amount do the work.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. And if your exchange just emailed you a closing date, take that as your cue to move to self-custody.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin Price $75,800: Fifth Losing Week Looms — CryptoTicker
• #2 — Bitcoin price stalls below $76K as major altcoins suffer double-digit losses: Market watch — crypto.news
• #3 — Bitcoin ETFs flip negative for 2026 after $1.28 billion outflow week, worst since June — The Block
• #4 — US task force to cut off Iran’s transport of advanced weapons: What we know — Al Jazeera
• #5 — Iran rejects new US ‘Iron Gate’ task force aimed at blocking weapons routes — NewsNation
• #6 — Talks on Iran-US deadlock are inching forward, officials say — WHIO
• #7 — Houthis say at least 33 killed in Saudi air strike — BBC World
• #8 — US offers $20m reward for information about Iran’s nuclear programme — BBC World
• #9 — Stocks are moving in sync again for the first time in a while. There’s just one problem. — MarketWatch
• #10 — Corporate America’s profit numbers are just barely beating Wall Street’s expectations — MarketWatch
• #11 — AI Chip Stocks Bounce After Global Rout — But Is the Bubble Starting to Burst? — Decrypt
• #12 — Binance France emails announce closure of its users’ accounts on Dec. 31 — Cointelegraph
• #13 — Binance users in some European countries told to pull crypto before fees kick in — CoinDesk
• #14 — Binance CFO steps down nine days after record hack; co-CEO says transition was planned six months ago — The Block
• #15 — Vitalik Buterin says ETH should be valued as a store of value, not a fee-burning token — The Block
• #16 — Apple Completes the Set: Every Magnificent Seven Stock Opts Out of OKX-ICE Venue — Decrypt
• #17 — These Finland homes get free heat from bitcoin miners (as long as BTC stays above $70,000) — CoinDesk
• #18 — Consumer Price Index release schedule — US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $75,922        +0.34%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,235.83      +0.20%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1799        -0.88%
Solana (SOL)      $89.33         -0.14%
BNB               $696.81        +0.51%
XRP               $1.16          -0.10%

Fear & Greed: 28 — Fear  (was 25 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.31%  ·  Nasdaq: +1.09%  ·  DXY: 102.30 (+0.74%)  ·  Tokenized gold (PAXG/XAUt): $4,062 (+0.07%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

Five Red Weeks, None of Them a Crash was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $1.21 billion of a $1.28 billion weekly Bitcoin ETF exodus, yet Bitcoin still closed Friday $147 above the line that matters.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $75,710, down 0.16%. Friday’s intraday low was $74,762, the weakest print since August 21 #5, but the UTC daily close came in near $75,747, about $147 above the $75,600 election-night low. That’s two closes in a row above the line, each by a thinner margin. Lean: cautious. The weekly close (09:00 JST Monday) is the next test. A weekly close under $75,600 opens the 200-day average near $73,200, and one analyst flags ~$69,000 if that zone gives way #6. A reclaim of $77,700, just above the 50-week average, is still what it takes to call this a shakeout.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin is the one major asset whose supply doesn’t respond to price, politics or a rate hike. The long-term case is that as governments keep borrowing and debasing, more savings migrate into something nobody can issue more of or freeze by decree. A week of fund redemptions changes who holds the coins, not that reasoning.

Ethereum — short term. $2,233.65, up 0.10%. Flat on the day and still under $2,300, so the lean stays cautious. Ether ETFs lost about $365 million over the week #2, roughly a quarter of what left the Bitcoin funds on a much smaller base. Two daily closes above $2,300 would bring it back to neutral.

Ethereum — long term. The bet on ETH is that tokenized money and securities settle on a neutral public chain rather than on a handful of private bank ledgers. That’s a multi-year build measured in integrations and settlement volume, and it doesn’t depend on which way the Fed moves in December.

Cardano — short term. $0.1819, down 3.33%. Friday’s lone green day was fully handed back, and the cushion over $0.18 has shrunk from about 3.7% to about 1%. That’s the pattern you should expect from ADA right now: bigger moves than the market in both directions, with no Cardano-specific catalyst behind either.

Cardano — long term. At roughly $6.8 billion in market value, ADA is priced on the promise of a carefully engineered, slowly upgraded network, not on the fees and activity it produces today, which are a small fraction of that number. Holding it is a bet that real usage eventually catches up to the valuation. Make your own call.

The rest. XRP $1.16 (−3.11%) was the weakest major for a second straight day. SOL $89.50 (−1.24%) slipped just under $90. BNB $693.41 (−0.32%) holds about 2% above its $680 floor.

Why The Market Is Here

One fund did almost all the selling. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $411.9 million on Friday, and BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for roughly $403 million of it, while Fidelity’s FBTC actually took in about $42.8 million #1 #3. For the week, IBIT shed $1.21 billion of the group’s $1.28 billion total #4. Who is pushing, and why? IBIT is the fund that model portfolios, wealth platforms and basis-trade desks use as their Bitcoin sleeve. When the rate outlook turns and a portfolio committee cuts risk, IBIT is the cheapest, most liquid line to sell. Selling concentrated in one fund points to a handful of large allocators rebalancing, not a broad retail exit.

The price absorbed it. That $412 million hit the same day Bitcoin printed an 11-week low and crypto liquidations topped $1 billion, mostly longs #5. Even so, the daily close finished back above $75,600 and the weekend has held near $75,700. When the biggest seller in the market dumps nearly half a billion dollars and price closes higher than its intraday low by almost $1,000, somebody on the other side was buying, most likely off-exchange where you don’t see it on the chart. The Fear & Greed Index slipped from 28 to 25, back into “Extreme Fear.” Sentiment is worse than the price.

The war escalated, and oil shrugged. US forces carried out what Trump called “minor strikes” on Iranian air defences on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, the first strikes since the midterms. Iran says it shot down an American MQ-9 drone. Trump said in the same breath that Washington has made “a lot of progress” in talks, and he blamed his party’s midterm losses on the war #7. Qatar dismissed reports that negotiations had failed and has floated a “bridge deal” built on two days of trust-building steps #8. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, meanwhile, say they’re building underground sites for weapons production and storage #9. Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday #11, on track for a weekly loss of more than 11% #12. The oil market is still pricing a deal, not a war. The diesel market is a separate story: traders are still refusing Russian supply even after the Trump–Putin deal #10. CME gold closed Friday at $4,075, down about 0.9%, and tokenized gold (PAXG/XAUt) is flat near $4,059 over the weekend.

So it isn’t oil, and it isn’t the war. Stocks closed Friday higher, with the Nasdaq up about 1.1% and the S&P up about 0.3%, while the dollar index rose about 0.7% to 102.30. The pressure on Bitcoin this week came from the rate outlook and the dollar, and it was expressed through one very large fund.

Washington softened the rules for crypto onshore and got tougher on it offshore. On Friday, Treasury walked back its crypto “travel rule” surveillance proposal #13, and the administration moved closer to allowing crypto in 401(k) plans #14, though the door to altcoins comes with hurdles #15. The same day, Treasury cut MEXC off from the US financial system over an alleged $16 billion in transactions tied to Iran, North Korea and Russia #16, and sanctioned 45 more targets tied to the Prince Group scam network #17. Note how these happened: by agency rule and executive action, not by law. With the President blaming the midterm losses on the war and a post-election Congress already looking more hostile to big tech #20, crypto’s friendly window is running through the executive branch, and what one administration grants by rule, the next can take back the same way. Price that in as policy risk, not as a permanent tailwind.

Institutional Pulse

The worst ETF week since June. The $1.28 billion five-day outflow was the largest since the week ending June 26 #2. The split matters more than the total. IBIT was nearly the whole story #4, and FBTC finished Friday with an inflow. Smaller issuers bled only modestly: Bitwise’s BITB about $20.5 million, ARKB about $20.1 million and GBTC about $11.1 million on Friday #3. One door is crowded, and the rest of the building is quiet.

Where the other side shows up. Large buyers, from treasury companies to funds rotating in, mostly negotiate blocks through OTC desks so their orders don’t move the order book. That’s why a $400 million redemption day can end with a close above the line: the selling is visible in the flow data, while the buying shows up only in the fact that price held.

Exchange risk, one new data point. Elliptic says the Binance hackers have swapped about $124 million of stolen tokens into Bitcoin, and the exchange plans more withdrawal reopenings #18. Separately, crypto card provider Gnosis Pay disclosed a breach that exposed card details and personal data through a legacy system, with customer funds unaffected #19. Every account you open is a record that can leak.

Calendar Watch

Monday 09:00 JST: the weekly close. Two daily closes have held $75,600 by a few hundred dollars. The weekly candle is the cleaner verdict on whether this range survives.

Monday’s ETF print. After the worst week since June, the first thing to watch is whether IBIT’s redemptions continue. One flat or green IBIT day would say the rebalancing is done.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $75,600 (weekly close). It held on Friday by about $147. A weekly close below breaks the range and puts $73,200 in play. A reclaim of $77,700 means the week was a shakeout.
• BTC $74,762. Friday’s low. Losing it on a daily close would mean the absorption that held price this week has stepped back.
• IBIT flows. If IBIT keeps redeeming at $200–400 million a day while the rest of the field is flat, the selling is still one allocator group de-risking. If the outflows spread to FBTC and the others, it’s a broader exit.
• ETH $2,300. It needs two closes above to get back to neutral.
• ADA $0.18 / BNB $680. ADA’s cushion is down to about 1%, and BNB’s is about 2%. A break of either says the deleveraging isn’t done with altcoins.
• Brent $105 / $113. It’s near $98 after an 11% weekly drop despite the Qeshm strikes. A drift to $105 without a headline would mean the market has stopped believing in a deal, and above $113 would mean talks have failed.
• Dec hike odds above 90%. If they get there before the December 4 jobs report, the market is pricing more than one hike.

If I Had $100 This Month

The largest Bitcoin fund spent the week selling, sentiment is in Extreme Fear, and price is still holding its line on a closing basis. That’s when a fixed, boring monthly buy does its best work.

• $60 → BTC. The biggest forced and tactical sellers have been active all week, and whoever is absorbing them is buying at the same prices you would.
• $25 → ETH. It’s flat and catalyst-free for now, so let a steady schedule do the timing instead of guessing the turn.
• $15 → ADA. It just gave back its green day and sits about 1% above support, so keep the position small and let the volatility work for a fixed buy rather than against a large one.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. This week showed you who decides when an ETF sleeve gets sold, and it wasn’t the people holding the shares.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Holds Near $76,000 as Spot ETFs Shed $411.9 Million — The Crypto Times
• #2 — Bitcoin ETFs Record $1.28B in Weekly Outflows, Ethereum Loses $365M — The Crypto Times
• #3 — Bitcoin ETFs Lose $411.9M on Friday as BlackRock Drives the Selling — NewsBTC
• #4 — BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Lost $1.21B While Rivals Held Steady — Coindoo
• #5 — Crypto Liquidations Top $1 Billion as Bitcoin Tests 11-Week Low — Decrypt
• #6 — Crypto Market Today (Nov 7, 2026): BTC Holds $75K After a Brutal Week — Secureshift
• #7 — Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island — Al Jazeera
• #8 — Qeshm island and Hormuz hit, as mediators try to prevent US-Iran escalation — Al Jazeera
• #9 — Iran’s IRGC says building underground sites for weapons production, storage — Al Jazeera
• #10 — Why are oil traders refusing to buy Russian diesel after Trump-Putin deal? — Al Jazeera
• #11 — Middle East Conflict: Key Updates UAE Residents Should Know (Nov 7, 2026) — Gulf News
• #12 — Brent crude oil — Trading Economics
• #13 — US Treasury walks back crypto surveillance ‘travel rule’ proposal — The Block
• #14 — Trump administration moves closer to allowing crypto in 401(k) retirement plans — The Block
• #15 — US 401(k) proposal leaves door open to altcoins, but hurdles remain — Cointelegraph
• #16 — Treasury cuts off MEXC Global over alleged $16 billion in transactions linked to Iran, North Korea and Russia — The Block
• #17 — US Sanctions 45 More Targets Tied to Alleged Crypto Scam Empire Prince Group — Decrypt
• #18 — Elliptic says Binance hackers swapped stolen tokens for $124M in bitcoin, exchange plans more withdrawal reopenings — The Block
• #19 — Gnosis Pay data breach exposes customer info; funds unaffected — The Block
• #20 — Nvidia may face a more hostile post-election Washington: Report — Cointelegraph

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $75,710        -0.16%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,233.65      +0.10%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1819        -3.33%
Solana (SOL)      $89.50         -1.24%
BNB               $693.41        -0.32%
XRP               $1.16          -3.11%

Fear & Greed: 25 — Extreme Fear  (was 28 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.31%  ·  Nasdaq: +1.09%  ·  DXY: 102.30 (+0.74%)  ·  Tokenized gold (PAXG/XAUt): $4,059 (+0.10%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

The Biggest Fund Sold the Week was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Nvidia and the Nasdaq clawed back part of Thursday’s rout on Friday, but a blowout jobs report pushed December hike odds toward 80%, and Bitcoin slipped under its election-night low anyway.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $75,429, down 1.19%. Thursday’s UTC daily close came in near $75,940, about $340 above the $75,600 election-night low, so the line held by a thin margin. By Friday’s US session it was trading below it, in a $75,240–$76,280 range that barely moved on the payrolls print #1. Lean: cautious. The Friday UTC close (09:00 JST Saturday) decides it. A close under $75,600 means the October–November range has broken. Getting back above $77,700 is now the bar for calling this week a shakeout.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed. No central bank can print more of it, and no election can change it. The long-term case is that savings keep moving into a scarce, seizure-resistant asset while governments run deficits and lean on their currencies. A December rate hike can delay that move, but it doesn’t change the reasoning behind it.

Ethereum — short term. $2,217.21, down 1.89%. Thursday closed under $2,300, so the upgrade from earlier this week is cancelled and the lean goes back to cautious. Adding to that, core developers said they won’t fork Glamsterdam onto the Hoodi testnet until smart-contract risks are resolved #20. That’s the right call for safety, but the next upgrade catalyst now has no date. Two closes back above $2,300 would bring the lean back to neutral.

Ethereum — long term. Tokenized stocks, bonds and dollars need a settlement layer, and ETH’s bet is that a neutral public chain wins a meaningful share of that work instead of private bank ledgers. That plays out over years of integrations, not in a rate cycle.

Cardano — short term. $0.1867, up 1.54%. It was the only major coin in the green, and it has no Cardano-specific news behind the move. The cushion over $0.18 went from 1.4% to about 3.7% overnight. ADA’s moves have been larger than the market’s in both directions all week, so one green day against a red market says more about positioning than about demand.

Cardano — long term. ADA’s roughly $7.0 billion market value prices in a network built on formal methods and slow, peer-reviewed upgrades. The fees and on-chain activity it produces today are a small fraction of that figure. If you hold, you’re betting usage eventually grows into the valuation. Make your own call.

The rest. XRP $1.18 (−5.46%) was the worst performer of the day, with no single headline driving it. That fits a market where leverage is still being unwound coin by coin. SOL $89.93 (−0.86%) is holding near $90. BNB $692.43 (−0.04%) is still above its $680 floor, even as the questions around the exchange keep growing (see Institutional Pulse).

Why The Market Is Here

Stocks got a bounce, and crypto didn’t. After Thursday’s AI rout, chip stocks and the big AI names rebounded Friday #4. By late morning in New York, the Nasdaq was up about 1.4% and the S&P about 0.75%. Overnight had been worse. South Korea’s KOSPI opened down 8.5%, below 5,000 for the first time in nine months, and triggered a 20-minute circuit breaker #6. Bitcoin held around $75,000 through the Asian selling #5. That’s the good news: it didn’t follow Seoul down. The bad news is it didn’t follow New York up either. When the asset you’ve been trading alongside recovers and yours doesn’t, the selling is coming from somewhere else.

That somewhere else is rates. October payrolls came in at 165,000, against a consensus of about 59,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4% on the month, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 #2. CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp hike at the December 9 meeting rose to roughly 79%, from about 70% before the release #1. As one economist put it, after last month’s hot inflation print, a soft jobs report “was the one thing that could have complicated December” #3. It didn’t come. The details are softer than the headline, though: U-6 underemployment rose to 7.9% from 7.6%, and unemployment spells are getting longer #3. The Fed will most likely look past that. The dollar index rose about 0.6% to 102.18, and a stronger dollar is a headwind for anything priced in it.

Who is selling: forced sellers first, funds second. Crypto liquidations reached about $1.25 billion over 24 hours, roughly 89% of them longs #8. Most of those positions were opened during Wednesday’s squeeze toward $80,000 #1. Those are traders who bought the election bounce with borrowed money and were forced out two days later. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 50 to 28, “Fear,” so the gauge has caught up with Thursday’s price action.

The war story moved the wrong way for the peace trade. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say tankers caught fire after hitting mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday #9, and more fires were reported Friday #10. None of these incidents have been independently confirmed. Satellite images suggest major construction near Iranian missile bases #11. Tehran is also stepping up diplomacy from Moscow to the UAE #12, and a rocket-launcher deal shows how close it has grown to Russia #13. Iran is talking and arming at the same time. Brent rose about 4% on Thursday to $98.29 and is near $97 on Friday. It’s still under the $100 line where a deal is priced in, but it’s drifting toward $105, the level where the market would be saying it doesn’t believe a deal is coming. CME gold fell about 1% to $4,071, the dollar’s bounce outweighing the tanker headlines.

Policy: the window is narrowing. House Democrats are already drafting their own market-structure bill ahead of taking the committee gavels in January #22. That means the industry’s version of CLARITY is no longer the only text on the table #21. Crypto has been pricing a friendly Washington, and that window is now measured in lame-duck weeks, not years. Abroad, Greece approved a 10% tax on crypto gains starting in 2027 #25, and Nigeria’s central bank brought in stablecoin licensing and banned algorithmic stablecoins #26.

A reminder of what Bitcoin is for. Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña resigned after a bank collapse #23, and the lockout reportedly cut off about 60% of the country from its money #24. The price chart doesn’t care about that this week. Over the long term, it’s the only argument that matters.

Institutional Pulse

The inflow day was reversed, and then some. Wednesday’s $74.6 million net inflow was followed on Thursday by about $430 million in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC led at roughly $200 million and BlackRock’s IBIT lost about $105 million #1. Including ether products, crypto ETFs shed more than half a billion dollars #7. Week-to-date redemptions through Thursday were about $870 million. The fund that bought on Wednesday sold more on Thursday. That reads like tactical allocators going in and out of risk, not long-term money arriving.

Treasury companies are still buying, and the miners are leaving. Strive reported a $509 million Q3 profit on bitcoin gains and said its BTC buying is ramping up #14. Buyers like that negotiate their purchases off-exchange, so they don’t show up as a green candle. On the other side, TeraWulf’s mining revenue fell 69% as it leased capacity to AI customers #15, and Core Scientific says it will exit Bitcoin mining entirely by year-end #16. Public miners are turning into data-center landlords. That’s part of why Bitcoin has traded with the AI complex all year: the companies that used to be pure BTC exposure now carry Nvidia exposure as well.

Exchange risk got new numbers. On the Binance exploit, Elliptic says about $3.1 billion of the stolen funds has not yet been laundered #17, and Security Alliance estimates the attackers had eight weeks of access before they struck #18. In Korea, GOPAX halted trading and withdrawals to move all assets into cold storage #19. When an exchange chooses to freeze customers out to protect itself, you learn who actually controls the coins in your account.

Calendar Watch

This weekend: CME is closed and crypto isn’t. Equities, CME gold and Fed funds futures stop trading Friday afternoon New York time. Any Hormuz headline over Saturday and Sunday hits a market where crypto is the only thing open, with thin liquidity and liquidations still fresh.

December 4 jobs report → December 9 FOMC. The next payrolls release lands five days before the Fed decision #1. With hike odds near 80%, that print is the last real chance to move December. Until then, every inflation data point matters more than usual.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $75,600 (daily close). It held by about $340 on Thursday and is under it intraday on Friday. A close below breaks the range. A reclaim of $77,700 turns the week into a shakeout.
• ETH $2,300. The upgrade is cancelled. It needs two closes back above $2,300 to restore neutral, and the Glamsterdam delay takes away the near-term catalyst.
• ADA $0.18 / BNB $680. ADA’s cushion widened to about 3.7%, and BNB’s is now about 1.8%. A break of either would mean altcoins are still taking the brunt of the deleveraging.
• Stocks up, BTC flat. If the Nasdaq extends its bounce next week and Bitcoin still doesn’t follow, the problem isn’t tech. It’s rates, the dollar and ETF redemptions. That’s a slower kind of pressure to work through.
• Dec hike odds above 90%. If odds move from ~79% to near-certain before December 4, the market is pricing a path beyond one hike, and that’s a headwind for all three verdicts.
• Brent $105. Brent is near $97 after Thursday’s jump. A drift to $105 without a peace-collapse headline would mean the market has stopped believing in a deal. Above $113 would mean talks have failed.
• Retired: The Binance follow-up proof-of-reserves snapshot. A week has passed without a confirmed publication, so we’re dropping it as a daily tracker. The hack data above is now the better read on exchange risk.

If I Had $100 This Month

The Fed is about to hike, the ETFs are redeeming, and forced sellers have been cleared out twice this week. That’s a bad setup for leverage and a reasonable one for a fixed monthly buy.

• $60 → BTC. It’s sitting right on the election-night low with sentiment back in Fear, which is the zone where steady buying has historically paid off over a long enough horizon.
• $25 → ETH. The upgrade is off and the next catalyst has slipped, so keep the allocation steady and let the schedule handle the timing.
• $15 → ADA. It’s the only green coin today, but it swings harder than the market in both directions, so keep it small and don’t chase one good day.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. This week the ETF holders sold, and two miners walked away from mining.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin Price Sits At $75,500 After Hot October Jobs Report — Bitcoin Magazine
• #2 — Jobs report October 2026: U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs — CNBC
• #3 — October jobs report strengthens case for December rate hike — HousingWire
• #4 — AI stocks climb after trillions wiped from market values — BBC Business
• #5 — Bitcoin holds $75K as AI regulation fears see KOSPI halted after 8% crash — Cointelegraph
• #6 — Trading of KOSPI stocks suspended amid tech sell-off — The Korea Herald
• #7 — Crypto ETFs see over half a billion dollars in outflows amid post-midterm market slide — The Block
• #8 — BTC Slides to $75.6K as Crypto Liquidations Top $1.25B After Nasdaq Rout — The Crypto Times
• #9 — Iran says tankers struck in Hormuz amid fears of new US attack — Al Jazeera
• #10 — Iran Reports More Tanker Fires in Strait of Hormuz — OilPrice.com
• #11 — Major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggest — BBC World
• #12 — Russia to UAE, Iran steps up diplomacy amid Trump threats: What we know — Al Jazeera
• #13 — Rocket launcher deal illustrates deepening Russia-Iran relations — Al Jazeera
• #14 — Strive’s bitcoin gains drive $509 million Q3 profit as BTC buying ramps up — The Block
• #15 — TeraWulf’s bitcoin mining revenue falls 69% as HPC leasing surges — The Block
• #16 — Core Scientific (CORZ) to Exit Bitcoin Mining by Year-End as Colocation Hits $215 Million — Bitcoin Magazine
• #17 — $3.1B in Stolen Binance Crypto Has Yet to Be Laundered: Elliptic — Decrypt
• #18 — Binance hackers had 8 weeks of access before $6.3B exploit, Security Alliance estimates — Cointelegraph
• #19 — GOPAX halts crypto trading, withdrawals to move all assets to cold storage — Cointelegraph
• #20 — Ethereum devs won’t fork Glamsterdam on Hoodi until smart contract risks resolved — Cointelegraph
• #21 — What Democrats’ US midterm sweep means for the CLARITY Act — Cointelegraph
• #22 — House Democrats drafting their own crypto market structure bill — Bitcoin Magazine
• #23 — Paraguay President Santiago Peña resigns after bank collapse — BBC World
• #24 — Bitcoin Fixes This? Paraguay President Resigns After Bank Lockout Hits 60% of Country — Decrypt
• #25 — Greece approves 10% tax on crypto gains starting in 2027 — Cointelegraph
• #26 — Nigeria’s central bank introduces stablecoin licensing rules, bans algorithmic versions — The Block

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $75,429        -1.19%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,217.21      -1.89%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1867        +1.54%
Solana (SOL)      $89.93         -0.86%
BNB               $692.43        -0.04%
XRP               $1.18          -5.46%

Fear & Greed: 28 — Fear  (was 50 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.75%  ·  Nasdaq: +1.37%  ·  DXY: 102.18 (+0.62%)  ·  Gold: $4,071 (-1.02%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

Oil kept falling toward a war deal, which should have helped. Instead chip stocks cracked, the jobs data ran hot, and Bitcoin gave back Wednesday’s whole rally in a single session.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $75,979, down 5.41%. It traded above $80,800 early Thursday and was near $76,600 by the US morning #1. Yesterday’s test was simple: a close back under $77,700 would mean Wednesday was a relief bounce, not a turn. It’s now 2.2% under that line and about 0.5% above the $75,600 low from election night #3. Lean: cautious. A daily close under $75,600 would mean the election-night low didn’t hold, and the next support is wherever forced sellers stop.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed. No Congress, central bank or chip cycle can change it. The long-term bet is that savings keep moving into a scarce bearer asset as governments borrow more and pay for it with currency. That bet doesn’t depend on any one week’s rate path. Weeks like this one decide what price you pay to make it.

Ethereum — short term. $2,250.01, down 7.44%, after falling about 5% in early US trading alone #8. Yesterday’s upgrade signal, a daily close above $2,300, lasted one day. ETH is now 2.2% below that line. If Thursday closes here, the upgrade is cancelled and the lean goes back to cautious. To flip it again, ETH needs to reclaim $2,300 on a closing basis, not just intraday.

Ethereum — long term. Banks are moving stocks, bonds and cash onto ledgers, and the open question is whose ledger. ETH wins if a meaningful share of that settlement runs on a neutral public network instead of closed bank systems. That’s a multi-year adoption question, and one bad Thursday tells you nothing about it.

Cardano — short term. $0.1825, down 7.91%, the worst of the majors. A day ago it had a 10% cushion above $0.18. Now it has 1.4%. It moved more than the market in both directions, with no Cardano-specific news either way.

Cardano — long term. At about $6.86 billion, ADA’s market value reflects a long-dated wager on research-first development: peer-reviewed protocol work, post-quantum preparation and compliant stablecoin plumbing. Fee revenue and on-chain activity today are a small fraction of that valuation. If you hold, you’re betting the gap closes from the usage side. Make your own call.

Solana and the rest. SOL $90.14 (−6.89%) gave back the push toward $100. Separately, Samsung Wallet launched USDC accounts on Solana for US Galaxy users #22. That’s the kind of distribution that matters over years, not days. BNB $688.26 (−3.88%) held up best but is now 1.2% above its $680 floor. XRP $1.25 (−5.17%) lost what it gained this week.

Why The Market Is Here

The relief rally lasted one session. On Wednesday, stocks and crypto rallied because the election was over and oil fell more than 8% on bets that a weaker Trump would have to settle the Iran war #30. On Thursday, the same election result was read as a threat to the AI build-out. The Nasdaq fell into correction territory, more than 10% below its October 6 record #2. Investors are asking whether a Democratic Congress will slow data-center spending or regulate AI harder #2. Qualcomm fell 9% after missing on smartphone chips #1. Nvidia was down almost 9% intraday. The Nasdaq was down 5.2% by late morning, with the VIX up more than half to 26.

Bitcoin traded as part of the tech complex. Ask who was selling, and the answer is leverage, not long-term holders. About $370 million in positions, mostly longs, were liquidated within an hour #6, and the 24-hour total approached $1 billion #7. Crypto stocks fell with the AI infrastructure names #7, and by late morning Strategy and Coinbase were each down about 11%. When the Nasdaq loses 5%, the funds that hold Bitcoin next to chip stocks cut both at once. The Fear & Greed Index moved up to 50, “Neutral,” but that reading was taken after Wednesday’s bounce and before Thursday’s drop. Expect it to move back down tomorrow.

The rate trade came back. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, against 196,000 expected. That matches the lowest reading since 1969 #3. Markets were already pricing roughly a four-in-five chance of a Fed hike in December before the print #9. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England raised rates to 4%, its first hike since 2023 #5. The vote was 8–1, and the one dissenter wanted a bigger move. Governor Bailey said that unless the Middle East conflict is resolved, this is unlikely to be the last increase #4. Central banks are now hiking into a war-driven price shock #27, and that’s harder on long-duration assets than any single election result.

Oil stopped helping. Brent fell for a fourth straight day overnight, down to about $93.80 #4, then bounced back toward $97 by the New York session. The peace trade is still on paper. Vance’s post-election critique blamed the war for the losses #16, and Al Jazeera asks whether Iran’s new supreme leader can negotiate from behind the scenes #26. But a deal hasn’t happened. And even with Brent under $100, Bitcoin fell. Cheaper oil was the bullish argument yesterday. Today it was outweighed by chips and rates.

Policy, one line each. Scaramucci says Trump’s memecoin ventures derailed the CLARITY Act #17. That’s a sign the industry is already arguing about who lost the bill, not how to pass it. The Digital Chamber called Sherrod Brown’s win the “most consequential unfavorable result” for crypto #19. Lobbyists are pushing for one more lame-duck attempt #18. Abroad, South Korea is seeking a fourth crypto-tax delay, to 2029 #20, and France’s budget rejection sidelined both the stablecoin tax and the self-custody reporting rule #21. Thailand will block Bitget in December for unlicensed trading #23.

Institutional Pulse

The first inflow day finally came, and it showed a split. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $74.6 million on Wednesday, ending three straight days of outflows #11. This is the issuer breakdown we had been waiting for. Fidelity’s FBTC took in $236.7 million. BlackRock’s IBIT was the only fund with an outflow, at $201.2 million #12. Combined BTC and ETH products drew $128 million #10. One fund family bought while the biggest one sold, so this looks like rotation, not a broad return of demand. That inflow day came before Thursday’s drop. Expect the Thursday print to show whether the fresh money held.

Off the screen, the buyers are operating companies. Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin reported a $126 million Q3 profit on digital-asset gains #13 and added 425 BTC #3. A Payward-affiliated fund and its clients bought an AAVE token stake on the secondary market #14. Deals like that are negotiated off-exchange and never show up as a green candle. Anchorage filed to register with the CFTC as a swap dealer for crypto options #15. That’s infrastructure for institutions that want to hedge, not just buy.

On custody: Coinbase says 99% of customer crypto is held offline #24, and Binance cut off SignalPlus API keys over a “potential security issue” #29. We still haven’t seen confirmation that Binance’s follow-up reserves snapshot, after its Nov 2 proof #25, has been published. If you’re keeping coins on any exchange for convenience, this week has given you several reasons to reconsider.

Calendar Watch

Friday, 08:30 ET (22:30 JST): October payrolls. Consensus is about 65,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2% #3. After Thursday’s 189,000 claims print, a strong number would push the December hike closer to certain. That’s the main macro risk for Bitcoin this week.

Post-midterm seasonality. Historically, the period after midterms has favored stocks, and Bitcoin’s win rate against the S&P over that window has been recovering #28. Seasonal patterns describe averages, though. They didn’t stop Thursday’s drop.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $75,600. A daily close below the election-night low means the October–November range has broken. A reclaim of $77,700 would turn Thursday into a shakeout instead.
• ETH $2,300. Thursday’s close decides whether the upgrade is cancelled. Two closes back above it would restore the neutral lean.
• ADA $0.18 / BNB $680. Both are within 1.5% of their floors. A break of either confirms that altcoins are taking the brunt of the deleveraging.
• Nasdaq correction vs. bear market. A 10% drawdown is a correction. A 20% one forces wider de-risking, and Bitcoin is currently being sold alongside chip stocks.
• Payrolls + Fed odds. A hot print that pushes December hike odds sharply higher works against all three verdicts above. A soft print would ease pressure on everything.
• Brent. Under $100 means a deal is still priced in, and Brent is near $97. Above $113 would signal that talks have collapsed. A move back toward $105 without a headline would mean the market has stopped believing in the deal.

If I Had $100 This Month

Bitcoin gave back its rally in a day, and the reason was chips and rates, not anything specific to crypto. If you buy on a schedule, you don’t need to call the bottom of a liquidation; you just keep buying through it.

• $60 → BTC. The election-night low is being retested right now, and that’s the level where a fixed monthly buy does its work.
• $25 → ETH. The upgrade failed in a day, so buy smaller and steadily until $2,300 is back on a closing basis.
• $15 → ADA. It’s 1.4% from its floor and the most volatile of the three, so keep the position small enough to sit through a break.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. On Thursday, the proxies fell twice as hard as the coin.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin Price Crashes 5% Below $76,000 Amid Tech Rout — Bitcoin Magazine
• #2 — Nasdaq plunges into correction territory as midterm results raise fresh questions about AI boom — CNN
• #3 — Bitcoin price falls below $80,000 as US jobless claims hit 57-year low — crypto.news
• #4 — Stock market today: post-election relief rally fades, oil rises — Yahoo Finance
• #5 — Interest rates hiked to 4% in first increase in over three years — BBC Business
• #6 — Bitcoin, Ether drop as $370M in leveraged positions liquidated in an hour — Crypto Briefing
• #7 — Bitcoin Drops Below $81K, Triggering Nearly $1B Crypto Liquidation Wave — Yahoo Finance
• #8 — Live updates: Bitcoin extends losses as Nasdaq tumbles in early trading — CoinDesk
• #9 — Gold extends recovery amid post-election volatility, US jobs data in focus — FXStreet
• #10 — Bitcoin, Ether ETFs draw $128M as crypto rebounds after midterms — Cointelegraph
• #11 — Bitcoin ETFs take in $75 million as Fidelity inflows outweigh BlackRock withdrawals — CryptoSlate
• #12 — Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) — Farside Investors
• #13 — Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin swings to $126 million profit in Q3 — The Block
• #14 — Payward-affiliated fund and clients buy AAVE token stake on secondary market — The Block
• #15 — Anchorage Digital seeks CFTC swap dealer registration for crypto options business — The Block
• #16 — Vance walks Trump tightrope with scathing election critique blaming Iran war — BBC World
• #17 — Trump’s memecoin ventures derailed CLARITY Act, Scaramucci says — Cointelegraph
• #18 — Morning Minute: Democrat Sweep Pumps Crypto as Clarity Act Resurfaces — Decrypt
• #19 — The Digital Chamber calls Sherrod Brown’s win ‘most consequential unfavorable result’ for crypto — The Block
• #20 — South Korea seeks 4th crypto tax delay, targets 2029 start — Cointelegraph
• #21 — France budget rejection sidelines stablecoin tax, wallet reporting — Cointelegraph
• #22 — Samsung Wallet launches USDC accounts on Solana for US Galaxy users — The Block
• #23 — Thailand to block Bitget in December over unlicensed crypto trading — Cointelegraph
• #24 — Coinbase Says 99% of Customer Crypto Is Offline and Out of Hackers’ Reach — Decrypt
• #25 — Binance completes latest proof of reserves as it works to restore assets — The Block
• #26 — Can Iran’s new supreme leader make peace from behind the scenes? — Al Jazeera
• #27 — Faisal Islam: How high will interest rates go? — BBC Business
• #28 — Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks — Cointelegraph
• #29 — Binance Cuts Off SignalPlus API Keys Over ‘Potential Security Issue’ — Decrypt
• #30 — Oil Crashes 9% as Trump and Vance Blame Iran War for Midterm Rout — OilPrice.com

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $75,979        -5.41%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,250.01      -7.44%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1825        -7.91%
Solana (SOL)      $90.14         -6.89%
BNB               $688.26        -3.88%
XRP               $1.25          -5.17%

Fear & Greed: 50 — Neutral  (was 34 yesterday)
S&P 500: -3.49%  ·  Nasdaq: -5.20%  ·  DXY: 101.49 (-0.02%)  ·  Gold: $4,089 (+0.39%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

Democrats took both chambers of Congress and analysts called crypto’s market-structure bill dead. Bitcoin rose 3.6% anyway, because oil fell more than the bill’s odds did.

The Verdict

Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $80,317, up 3.55%. It fell to a seven-week low under $76,000 in Asian hours as the results came in #2, then rose past $80,500 at the Wall Street open #1. That puts it 0.65% under the $80,846 ceiling and 3.4% above the $77,700 line where recent buyers would be at a loss. Lean: neutral, moving to constructive only on a daily close above $80,846. A close back under $77,700 would mean Wednesday’s rally was a relief bounce and not a turn.

Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). The issuance schedule is fixed and doesn’t change with who controls Congress. The long-term case is that savings keep moving into a bearer asset with a capped supply, and that case doesn’t need a market-structure law. A law would speed it up. Without one, it takes longer.

Ethereum — short term. $2,428.63, up 5.82%, the biggest gain among the majors. That’s a daily close above $2,300, the upgrade signal we flagged, and ETH is now 5.6% above it. Lean moves from cautious to neutral. The next test is $2,500. A daily close back under $2,300 would cancel the upgrade.

Ethereum — long term. Tokenization is moving onto shared ledgers whatever Congress does. This week Morgan Stanley became one of the first banks to tokenize US stocks and Treasurys through the DTCC’s service #18. The ETH bet is that the open network wins a meaningful share of that settlement. The risk is that banks keep it on permissioned rails and ETH misses out.

Cardano — short term. $0.1983, up 4.05%, its best day in a while, and 10.1% above the $0.18 floor. There’s still no Cardano-specific news behind it. It moved with the market, which is what it has done for weeks.

Cardano — long term. The market values ADA at about $7.45 billion for a chain that builds through peer review, slowly, with recent work on post-quantum cryptography and compliant stablecoins. Current on-chain usage and fees are much smaller than that number. You’re betting that the research pays off in usage within your holding period. Make your own call on whether it does.

Solana and the rest. SOL $96.83 (+3.59%) is close to reclaiming $100. BNB $716.07 (+2.39%) is 5.3% above its $680 floor. XRP $1.31 (+2.88%) added to Tuesday’s lead.

Why The Market Is Here

Washington changed hands. Democrats won the House and the Senate. CBS projects at least 54 Senate seats, with Alaska and Mississippi still too close to call #3 #4. The Kobeissi Letter called it one of the biggest shifts in US political power in nearly 20 years: seven Senate seats and 25 House seats flipped #1. Trump acknowledged the Iran war was partly to blame for the losses #1, but says he has “no regrets” #11.

The policy trigger fired, and the legislative window is shorter than the market assumed. The CLARITY Act already failed a 49–50 procedural vote in the Senate in September. TD Cowen now says a Democratic sweep makes any version the industry would back “impossible” #5. Sherrod Brown, whom crypto PACs spent about $40 million to defeat in 2024, won back an Ohio seat despite more than $50 million in crypto-backed ads #6. The industry put more than $200 million into this cycle #7. What this means for you: crypto is a policy-risk asset, and the realistic window for market-structure law is now the lame-duck session before January. After that, rules come from agencies, and agency rules can be sued, delayed and reversed. The CFTC approved single-stock perpetuals and was sued the same day #21. SEC staff told Canton its token looks like a “digital commodity” in a no-action letter #20, which is guidance, not a statute.

So why did bitcoin rise? Oil. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said US voters had “said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.” WTI fell below $93, down as much as 11.9% for the week, and Brent neared $100 for the first time since October 7 #1. Brent had settled at $103.60 on Tuesday #14. Cheaper oil eases inflation, and that eases the pressure for a rate hike. CoinShares’ James Butterfill said that is what matters: “real yields, dollar liquidity and ETP flows still carry more weight than the elections” #1. The market looked through the bill to the barrel. Decrypt’s sources say the sweep was largely priced in already #8.

Who is pushing, and why. Buyers: macro funds and short sellers covering positions as the two risks of the past week, the vote and an oil spike, eased within hours. The S&P rose 1.42% and the Nasdaq 1.51% after S&P futures had touched a three-month low of 7,490 overnight #1 #15. Sellers: ETF holders, who were still selling on Tuesday but much less. Gold rose 2.23% to $4,055 with the dollar flat, so not every buyer was betting on calm.

Tehran welcomed the result but hasn’t stopped threatening. Iran’s chief negotiator read the vote as Americans rejecting war #27, while Khamenei warned that hostility won’t end #10. Al Jazeera notes Trump could still strike #12. A new Congress can push back on the war and on tariffs, but it doesn’t take its seats until January #13. Until then, the president can still escalate.

Hack follow-ups. French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa confirmed it was the victim behind the $133 million theft #22. Binance’s attackers have moved 81% of the Solana they stole, routing it through THORChain #23.

Institutional Pulse

ETFs: the selling slowed. Investors pulled $116 million from spot bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, down from $399 million on Monday and $643 million on Friday. That makes $1.16 billion over three sessions, and SoSoValue puts 2026 net flows at about −$153 million #9. Bitwise’s André Dragosch calls it “short-term risk-off.” He says retail owns most ETF assets, and that none of 15 institutions Bitwise surveyed cut its exposure during the bear market. The issuer-by-issuer breakdown for Tuesday wasn’t available when we published, so we can’t yet tell whether the selling spread beyond IBIT.

OTC: buyers outside the ETFs. BTC rose 3.6% in a session that followed three days of ETF selling. The buying came from somewhere other than ETF creations: derivatives desks, OTC and treasuries. One example: Tether’s CEO says it holds about 150,000 BTC, roughly 50,000 more than its latest reserve report shows #16. That size of accumulation goes through OTC desks and doesn’t show up in daily ETF flow tables. If you only watch ETF flows, you miss a lot of the buying.

Infrastructure keeps building. Circle reported $865 million in Q3 revenue and reserve income and is cutting 5% of staff #17. BitGo launched an institutional trading business led by a former NYDIG executive #19. Grayscale’s Zach Pandl calls the Binance hack a “temporary setback” #28.

Rules abroad. France backed reporting requirements for self-custodied crypto worth €100,000 or more #24. South Korea’s ruling party formally proposed deferring its crypto income tax again #25. In the US, Justin Sun is seeking $264,000 in sanctions over World Liberty’s UAE disclosure #26. The Trump family’s crypto ventures were the ethics issue Democrats cited when they blocked CLARITY, and they’ll have subpoena power from January.

Calendar Watch

• Now through December: the lame-duck session. The outgoing Republican Congress has its last chance to move any crypto legislation. If nothing moves by the holidays, assume no industry-backed market-structure law for the next two years.
• Alaska and Mississippi Senate calls. They decide how big the Democratic majority is, not who controls the Senate #3.
• Jan 3, 2027: new Congress sworn in. Committee chairs change hands, including Senate Banking. Expect oversight hearings on crypto ethics before any new bill.

Signals Worth Watching

• BTC $80,846. It’s 0.65% away. A daily close above it is the first sign that Wednesday was a turn, not just relief. A close under $77,700 would undo the rally.
• Brent under $100. A close below $100 was our signal that a Hormuz deal is being priced, and it’s within reach. A rebound above $113 still means talks have broken down. If Trump escalates after the vote, this is where it shows first.
• Tuesday’s ETF breadth, then Wednesday’s print. Outflows fell to $116M. A first day of inflows after a 3.6% rally would confirm Bitwise’s short-term read. More outflows on a green day would mean the wrapper’s holders are using strength to exit.
• ETH $2,300 → $2,500. The upgrade signal fired. Watch for a daily close above $2,500. A close back under $2,300 cancels it.
• Lame-duck crypto votes. Any floor time for CLARITY before December would be a surprise and a catalyst. No floor time means the policy premium keeps draining.
• Fear & Greed: divergence retired. The index rose 26→34 with price, so the gap we flagged closed in the market’s favor. Sentiment and price are moving together again, still in Fear.
• ADA $0.18. 10.1% below. A daily close under it breaks the floor.

If I Had $100 This Month

The vote went against crypto’s legislative agenda and the price rose anyway, because oil and rates matter more right now than a bill. That’s a better reason to buy than a policy rally would be, but BTC is sitting just under a ceiling, so don’t chase the green day.

• $60 → BTC. Put $20 in now and $20 on each of the next two weeks, and move a tranche forward on a dip to $77,700 rather than buying at $80,846.
• $25 → ETH. Its $2,300 signal fired, so put $15 in now and keep $10 for a daily close above $2,500 or a pullback that holds $2,300.
• $15 → ADA. Stick to your regular schedule; the 10% cushion over $0.18 gives you room to keep buying.

Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. The rally came from buyers outside the funds, and owning the coin keeps you outside them too.

This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.

Sources

• #1 — Bitcoin hits $80.5K as US stocks rally on midterm election results — Cointelegraph
• #2 — Bitcoin bounces from 7-week low under $76K as Democrats sweep Congress — Cointelegraph
• #3–2026 Senate midterm election results as Democrats win control — CBS News
• #4 — Democrats win US House to secure control of Congress in midterms — Cointelegraph
• #5 — Democratic Sweep Makes CLARITY Act ‘Impossible’: Analyst — Bitcoin Magazine
• #6 — Former Sen. Sherrod Brown defeats Jon Husted, dealing a blow to crypto PAC Fairshake — The Block
• #7 — Crypto industry pours more than $200 million into 2026 midterms — CNBC
• #8 — Bitcoin Shrugs Off Midterms as Experts Say Democratic Sweep Was ‘Priced In’ — Decrypt
• #9 — Bitcoin ETFs lose $1.16B as Bitwise calls selling ‘short-term’ — Cointelegraph
• #10 — Iran hails US voters rejecting war while Khamenei warns hostility won’t end — Al Jazeera
• #11 — No regrets: Trump says Iran war justified despite polls drubbing — Al Jazeera
• #12 — Iranian leaders welcome US midterms, but Trump may still attack — Al Jazeera
• #13 — Can Democrats stop Iran war, reverse Trump’s tariffs after midterms win? — Al Jazeera
• #14 — Crude oil prices fall for second day as market hopes for diplomatic resolution to Iran war — CNBC
• #15 — US markets rise as Democrats sweep midterm elections — Al Jazeera
• #16 — Tether Holds 150,000 Bitcoin, CEO Says — About 50,000 More Than Its Reserve Report Shows — Decrypt
• #17 — Circle reports $865 million in Q3 revenue and reserve income, discloses 5% workforce reduction — The Block
• #18 — Morgan Stanley among first banks to tokenize US equities, Treasurys through DTCC’s service — The Block
• #19 — BitGo launches institutional trading and financial solutions business led by former NYDIG executive — The Block
• #20 — Canton’s CC rises 4% as SEC staff view it as ‘digital commodity’ — Cointelegraph
• #21 — Morning Minute: CFTC Clears Stock Perps, Gets Sued the Same Day — Decrypt
• #22 — Crédit Mutuel Arkéa Confirms Cyberattack After ZachXBT Ties It to $133M Crypto Theft — Decrypt
• #23 — Binance hackers move 81% of stolen Solana, route funds via THORChain — Cointelegraph
• #24 — France backs reporting for self-custodied crypto worth 100K euros or more — Cointelegraph
• #25 — South Korea’s ruling party formally proposes deferral of crypto income tax — The Block
• #26 — Justin Sun seeks $264K sanctions over World Liberty’s UAE disclosure — Cointelegraph
• #27 — Iran’s chief negotiator says Americans voted ‘no to war’ — BBC World
• #28 — Binance hack may be ‘temporary setback’ for crypto, Grayscale’s Pandl says — Cointelegraph

Market Data

Asset             Price          24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC)     $80,317        +3.55%
Ethereum (ETH)    $2,428.63      +5.82%
Cardano (ADA)     $0.1983        +4.05%
Solana (SOL)      $96.83         +3.59%
BNB               $716.07        +2.39%
XRP               $1.31          +2.88%

Fear & Greed: 34 — Fear  (was 26 yesterday)
S&P 500: +1.42%  ·  Nasdaq: +1.51%  ·  DXY: 101.51 (+0.05%)  ·  Gold: $4,055 (+2.23%)

Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.

The Bill Died, the Barrel Fell, Bitcoin Rose was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.