Humanity has had many false starts. Some lasted centuries, AI is barely few decades in. No harm admitting (for all of us), that we have hit peak AI? AI can evolve to many forms = at-best a decision-aide tool, and at-worst a laziness hack designed by big-tech to make us lazy (and eventually dumb).

AI narratives across west, start with same unremarkable flow:

1. Computing (and data) power expand to automate general mechanical tasks. They create more data each cycle

2. More data created then powers even stronger prediction algorithms each iteration

3. Algorithms then evolving to a “daddy version” also General Intelligence (GI)

4. GI is in loose terms western societies’ version of eventual human evolution

5. GI to then compete with human intelligence and perhaps even try to control it (incase you watch Hollywood too much!)

Almost all large figures in tech have debated it to death. I am surprised to understand how almost all of them missed most basic tenet in this all = energy and mass continuum. More below.

Let us start with the most enthusiastic evolutionary path for GI aka self-driving cars

Short history on self-driving car.

• Google started the wave. Uber piled on.
• Uber made no money. Uber has ditched it.
• Google is still doing it. Because Google has money.
• Tesla has started. Because Tesla has ….
• you connect the story?
  
  On average city roads (where 80% of travel time is spent), GI will never reach its potential because driving involves 1000s of variables and all are changing dynamically at real-time. Decision making is demanded in micro-seconds. May be in developed countries, but at what cost? Humans take ~100 W for driving entire day — AI will take ~1000–1500kW; Sure tech will get better — but at what cost!

For any GI to keep a track of all variables real-time, compute their impact micro-decision, while continually training data sets for new streams of information requires serious computing power.

Computing power is derived from “electricity” (storage + computing), so even a kilometre long trip would require computing power that would put to shame the daily “AWS costs” of entire Probo (and Probo does serious computing!). Imagine this for billions of trips!

Now, let us compare this to a human body, our neural networks, brains and our genetic ability to respond to stimuli (memory) — we can quickly figure a dog jumping to crossing on a rainy day in an instant. What is even better it takes only a few joules (few grains of rice) to keep repeating this action ad infinitum.

Net, net: Unless Moore’s law makes silicon alloy perform better and faster than human-gray cells, hard to find the twain meeting. So what does it mean for us?

Firstly: Never forget, CS>DS (Common Sense >> Data Science)

I hope we realise in the last 4 minutes (minus any degree in science) that human body is the most efficient instrument available to us and not some MAANG sponsored AI/GI.

Let us make use of this basic knowledge available to us freely since 10000s of years and give our bodies the care they need.

Petition for AI to be renamed Automation Intelligence and must be relieved from any undue any pressure to save the human form.

*AI = Another Indian is a post promised later.

Only two things matter. Below framework will apply to all hiring. Repeat, all hiring. Weightage of parameters will vary across use cases.

1/ Attitude — hunger, curiosity, boldness

2/ Honesty towards work and self

Specific details to understand further.

Attitude towards work (better framed as duty) is pre-requisite. It is table stakes, no matter what the level of aptitude is — incorrect attitude will destroy all technical advantages. Attitude is gauged through

• Hunger is deep, and latent need to be. It is a reason for our existence. Hunger can be for any cause — one or many amongst knowledge, reputation, money, power, prestige, autonomy, experiences — as long as there is fire in the belly, it counts. Display of hunger is different for different folks (e.g Dravid vs Kohli) — staying non-judgemental and objective is paramount
• Curiosity is an insatiable desire to learn. Learning is not just consumption but also reflection. All humans are born curious, and curiosity can be rekindled. Curiosity should be measured by depth and not breadth. Over-index on how well topic is known vs how many topics are known. Proof of pudding, is the glint in the eye when they speak of their favorite topic.
• Boldness or courage is not absence of fear but presence of love. Boldness is doing things even when near term pain is inevitable and longer term gain is probable. Courage is the only virtue that counts, as it not be faked. Boldness is a must-have in challenging circumstances and a good-to-have in normal circumstances.

Honesty on the other hand is a must-have for no dishonest man can ever do great work. Honesty is the only red-flag one should have for that is the sole job of the person. Truth can never hurt anyone. Untruths cannot protect anyone. Thus, lying is not only a long term moral hazard but also a short term inefficiency. Honesty is total and absolute, means honesty (in any situation( is either zero or one.

• to self: high self-awareness. Clarity, and acceptance of their current situation (strengths, weaknesses), their past experiences, and future aspirations. Natural alignment between what they think, what they say and what they do.
• to work: high conscientiousness. An unwavering sense of awareness during our interactions towards the world. How we treat the external environment in roles we play — with our friends, parents, kids, siblings, peers, seniors, juniors. The important thing is to see is if love for duty trumps love of self. Misplaced sense of self-love diminishes honesty towards work. It is also the organizations’ job also to present the right duties.

Two of the biggest current influences are religion and money. They, incidentally are also the oldest concepts; 2000+ years. Thus, they attracted undisputed belief across humanity. Inevitably, they hold tremendous power over each of us as individuals and as a collective.

Have we wondered for a while though? Both money and religion are man-made concepts. How can they be more valuable than man himself. Put in simple worlds, all of world’s money cannot put back an apple that has fallen from the tree. So what good is of wealth? Can faith in a particular religion bring back even a moment of connection with lost, loved one? So what good is of faith?

Thus, man should have power over money and religion not vice-versa. Why is it not the case. Gaining back control from external influences is the first step. Thus a truly independent and de-attached soul, is a mandatory pre-requisite to progress beyond Kalyug.

Should we progress from Kalyug. If yes, where do we progress towards (Satyug — Era of supreme truth (knowledge))? This is a separate topic to discuss.

I believe courage like everything else is a muscle to be built. If one human can have it, all others can. So how to make it relevant for each of us?

We need to understand courage better.

1. Courage comes from conviction: Courage is not absence of fear, but presence of belief. Belief powers will power and thus action. Conviction (aka belief) is thus ore-cursor to any courage.
2. Conviction comes from clarity: Conviction in turn, comes from seeing things with clarity. Clarity is not blind belief, but a clear eyed, thought-through and first-principled way on how the world should be. Clarity is elusive, as the world around is forever changing and pushing us to see less clearly.
3. Clarity comes from compassion: It is worth wondering, how to seek clarity. This is where compassion (aka love) is paramount. Sheer (and unconditional) love towards a particular person, entity, cause, craft, purpose is thus the only source for ever lasting bliss of clarity

Thus, courage is just premised on our ability to love. It is as simple, yet so hard!

So, what is it that you love beyond life; more importantly, what are you doing about it?

When was the last time you had a moment of truth? Last you discovered a new truth around you? Truth after all requires convergence from at least two perceptions.
What if I tell you truth like matter possesses an inherent duality?

First of a three part blog to help explain Truth.

Part Uno — Individual truth

Truth is by far the most researched topic. Man’s search for truth pushes humanity forward. All education — science, history, technology, law are all but quests for truth. Truth is also the most misunderstood term. Especially in today’s era of selling advertisement. Often truth is misunderstood with facts. Facts are confused with inferences. And finally, inferences mistaken for judgements. And when all of it subsides, we hear a new term “alt-truth”. There are 4 levels to information — truth > fact > inference > judgement.

To know the truth about truth, we fall back to ancient text specifically “Yog Sutras” by Patanjali.
Given Patanjali wrote in Sanskrit, a language designed for pithy framing, we will take some aid from the English transcriptions by Swami Vivekananda and Osho (Maharishi Rajneesh)

Guru Patanjali describes truth as simply having right knowledge. Right knowledge about anything is liberating and leads to a time-robust understanding of a subject.

He postulates the following “sutra” or aphorism to help any individual reach truth or right knowledge

प्रत्यक्षानुमानाअगमाः प्रमाणानि

Translation: Pratyaksh (direction perception), anumana (inference) and aptavakyam/agama (competent evidence/awakened ones) are proofs for right knowledge (pramaanani)

When two of our perceptions do not contradict we call it proof. We hear something, and it does not align with our existing perception, “waves arise within us” to classify it as untruth! Patanjali states, the presence of conflict when presented with new facts is a step for further inquiry. He postulates, the only way to achieve right knowledge for an individual is via three things:

1. Direct Perception (Pratyaksh) — Things we directly perceive through sensory organs. Eyes, ears, smell, taste and feel. Even direct perceptory senses can be tricked under influence of external substance and/ or under emotions of fear, love, greed and so on. We often mistake one thing for another i.e. a fallen branch mistaken as a snake when walking late night under fear.
   Another great example of this was the genesis of Batman who grew up believing a misplaced identity for this father https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6115xklPDQ
2. Inference (Anuman) — We experience events, collate information and then infer knowledge. E.g. Newton discovering Gravity and Galileo figuring earth is round.
3. Competent Evidence (Aptavakyam) — Evidence derived through attestation by a competent authority (Apta/Agam). Competence should be driven from trust. Trust is hypotheses driven; it is very scientific. It is very critical to ensure the apta is of the right kind. He proposes, following sub measures to identify them

3a. Firstly, he/she (apta) must have derived their knowledge from significant time and/or energy

3b. Secondly, it must not contradict the knowledge of the past

3c. Thirdly, it must depend upon the character of the man. No impure man will ever have the power to reach the truths of religion. To test the purity of a man, use following three sub-filters. First of all to see that the man who declares himself to be an Apta is a perfectly unselfish and holy person; secondly that he has reached beyond the senses, and thirdly that what he says does not contradict the past knowledge of humanity.

3d. Fourthly, that truth must have a possibility of verification. If a man says “I have seen a vision,” and tells me that I have no right to see it, I believe him not. Everyone must have the power to see it for himself. No one who sells his knowledge is an Apta.

To repeat, ALL of these conditions must be fulfilled when you assess an Apta (expert)— you must first see that the person is pure, and that he has no selfish motive; that he has no thirst for gain or fame. Secondly, he must show that he is super-conscious. Thirdly, he must have given us something that we cannot get from our senses, and which is for benefit of the world. And we must see that it does not contradict other truths; if it contradicts other scientific truths reject it at once. Fourthly, the man should never be singular; he should only represent what all men can attain.

Direction perception (facts), anumana (inference) and aptavakyam (competent evidence) are the only three ways to accumulate right knowledge.

The above framework, is a wonderful tool to analyse everything around us. It gives a balanced way to assess what is right knowledge, and what is inconsistent information bias. From simple knowledge stuff like “whether the Earth is round” to more debatable topics “Is marijuana healthy” — our knowledge on all of them are just a mix of point in time data on facts, inference, and judgements. 99.9999999999% of humanity has not yet seen earth bend, but yet believes it.

All of us are exposed to multiple sources of data that inform our facts, inferences and judgments. Thus, if one were to simply build an excel model on what is right knowledge aka truth is — it is nothing but a probability.

End of Uno. Next we cover, how individual truths translate to collective truths through shared fables and markets.

Probo started as a weekend hack to learn technology in 2018. Few of us with interest in general affairs, sports, politics came together to build a product that we would love to see in the world.

Presenting “Probo — Predict the future”

Probo allows you to take positions on future events. The world is full of opinions. Probo harnesses the differences in our opinion into an opportunity to trade. As underlying facts change, so does our balance of opinions. Eventually, as truth presents itself, folks who are right earn while all of us learn and have fun. Probo is a discovery of truth platform.

We are launching with our alpha version. We aim to continually iterate and build our product in our live alpha stage till we open it up for all. If you are interested in learning more, please sign-up on the website (www.probo.in).

We are still a seed and there is a long way to forestation. We are fortunate to be blessed by the best of investors and angels. Sequoia, Elevation, Titan Capital, Better Capital, RazorPay (Mars-shots venture), Kunal Shah, Bhavik Koladiya, Bhavik Rathod, Pradeep Parameswaran, Madhu Kannan, Mukund Kulashekaran and our illustrious friends from Uber and UrbanCompany

For crazy ideas, thoughts and critiques, we are listening at founders@probo.in

Regards

Team Probo

Ideas are to human-led evolution, what “seeds” are to biological reproduction. For every 1 million seeds, we see 1 tree, for every million ideas we see one materialize to life. Darwin's evolutionary theory applies similarly to ideas. Ideas compete for survival every day. Capitalism vs Communism, fossil vs renewables, android vs iOS — always competing. Ones that survive the longest are not the loudest or the sharpest as social media may make us believe.
Only the prescient survive. Ones that were true then, are true now and will be true tomorrow. Two of the most powerful ideas that have survived the course in history are money and law (by extension religion). Ideas also keep evolving: pigeons then, WhatsApp now; Sieges then, tanks now.

Thus, one of the best things we as humans can do for ourselves, our loved ones and for humanity at large is to keep generating ideas. Before you badger me through “ideas are a dime and dozen; execution is everything”, it is important to understand not all ideas need to fructify into successful creations. Less than 0.001% eventually do. It is natural selection. Much like apes took a million year to evolve into humans like us, breakthrough ideas needs the first 99.999% of ideas to surface. To think any successful idea belongs to just the creator is an ego-fuelled, myopic understanding of the world. It is the thing winners do to show how they are different. Or historians to simplify the world for us. But that does not make it any truer. The elitist of creators realise this fallacy. For they know that countless others have contributed to their success in ways that they cannot even comprehend. For they are merely lucky to be at the right place, at the right time to pluck the fruits from other’s toil.

Message from Brian, CEO of the hottest IPO (CoinBase) in 2021.

Sriram Krishnan on Twitter: "And finally - a message from @brian_armstrong to Satoshi. pic.twitter.com/IB1U9lDHxt / Twitter"

And finally - a message from @brian_armstrong to Satoshi. pic.twitter.com/IB1U9lDHxt

When it comes to ideas folks say there are two primary skills, building ideas and selling ideas. I concur 100%. But there is an even more basic skill, philosophizing.

*When it comes to ideas, the only real revolution is in the enlightenment of the mind and the improvement of character. The only real emancipation is individual, and thus the only real revolutionists are philosophers and saints*

So where do we go from here? All of us could do more by contributing to the human idea farm. It is important to define an idea — it is a philosophy of life or a product or a practical improvement in the design of everyday things. An idea is a concept, the best explanation of most events. Beneath the complex surface, an elegantly simple concept to explain why things are the way they are. An idea is a connection between past and present; between present and future. Few things worth considering:

Generate ideas: To get ideas, we need to stand on the shoulder of giants. We do that through reading, observing and reflecting. It is surprising how few of us read and are willing to learn every day. The day we think we know everything, we cease growing. The day we feel know something, we slow growing. Only when we realize we know nothing, we start growing.

Nourish ideas: We need to understand that ideas emerge from a collision of variety. There are two things here — one, that ideas need to meet and mate. So important we spread it, only when it spreads to others does it mate and mutate. Second, ideas like seeds need the energy to flourish. Optimism is the fuel for ideas. One needs to feel confident in the future and have faith in their ideas doing good to themselves or to society to take them seriously. And this is heavily dependent on our world view. Be okay to wander, often in solitude, but have the patience to let ideas grow on us and then on others.

Evaluate ideas on truth: Ideas are delicate. Especially at incubation. Much like all early seeds — saplings, puppies and babies; mother nature nourishes its children in tenderness. The same applies to ideas. With ideas there is no good or bad. Ideas should solely be evaluated on the truth they carry. Best advised we stick to probabilities when ascertaining ideas vs absolutes. Eventually, the best ones will outlive the rest. No single human knows the absolute truth. Unless we are Gautam Buddha. So let us keep an open mind, till our mind opens.

Finally, a man is nothing but an idea. A unique fragrance amongst countless others. How long we last is a function of how we ideate on ourselves.

Tim Cook on Twitter: ""A great soul never dies. It brings us together again and again." - Maya Angelou. You're always with us Steve, your memory connects and inspires us every day. pic.twitter.com/X85bjObkPK / Twitter"

"A great soul never dies. It brings us together again and again." - Maya Angelou. You're always with us Steve, your memory connects and inspires us every day. pic.twitter.com/X85bjObkPK

*Excerpted from Lessons from History (Ariel and Will Durant)

Let us define leadership. It is broader than just captain or CEO. When two or more humans collaborate there is scope for leadership. All captains are leaders, but all leaders need not be captains. Seniority and hierarchy apply to managerial context, not leadership. 100% of us are leading something, somewhere —95% of us do not realise it yet. For documentation, let us close the definition as — a leader is a woman who marshals her human collaborators to achieve particular ends.

With this spirit, leadership effectiveness is a function of three things:

1. Clarity:

Building clarity of purpose is the primary purpose and the highest calling for a leader. Having clarity of purpose is the reason why you are the lead. It is the “Gomukh” for all downstream leadership tributaries (e.g. vision, bar setting, motivation, culture, and so on). Clarity of purpose is 100% personal and 100% inside out. No one can and should tell you yours. It is transient and an infinite game. It stays ephemeral, we have to keep cycling to ensure it stays clear. Getting clarity is ridiculously easy for the wise, while someone like me, takes time. For example: Leading our family is new for me and my wife. With retired parents and early parenthood, the onus to provide clarity is ours. It is at times, scary!

2. Building stories

Leadership is "building" stories. Read this part carefully. It has two parts:

Compelling narratives: Ability to translate your clarity of purpose to others is a superpower. Often over and over again at the cost of repetition. Repetition never spoilt a prayer. The ability to transfer energy to others (via the human bluetooth) is the highest leverage leadership activity.

Proof of work: Narratives go farther when accompanied by action. Exceptional leaders talk the talk and also walk the talk. Leadership like parenting is a full-body experience. People observe us in totality outside just our words. Humans are gifted with instincts. Instincts are attuned towards actions and conduct. For they cannot be just pacified by words, for they are always on the lookout 24x7, even so subconsciously. Great leaders understand this and are thus are focused on building stories vs just telling them.

3. Empathy for people

Finally, it is all about the people. Is it not? How you choose, how you engage, how you motivate, how you coach and on occasional times also how you do tough love! Different folks have different styles, no one more valid than the other. However, in the countless biographies I have read (from Steve Waugh to Steve Jobs. From Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Eisenhower), two themes emerge

Be a sponge: Firstly leaders are not routers, it is not their job to route information flow top-down and bottom-up. Leaders ought to be like a sponge, absorbing and releasing. A leader’s job is to absorb the uncertainty and pressure and recycle them to simplicity and love. Doing this every day consumes energy, and needs mindfulness. (covered in footnotes)

Leaders eat last: Thank you, Simon. If I may add: Leaders also wake up first. Leaders understand the win belongs to the team but the loss is squarely theirs*. Leaders identify the hardest parts of the problem and run towards them (not away). They stake their necks on the line and take risks for the team in their own name.

As I complete the framework, it is a healthy reminder, that I do not proclaim to be an expert. As I write this, the next WhatsApp group with you being created, the next email from your boss, the next pandemic wave — all are opportunities for you to lead. I am reasonably sure, the calling has dawned upon you already multiple times. I ask you to not follow anything blindly (especially this blog) but let this be a trigger for a deeper self-inquiry. A minor revolt within you.

And whenever in doubt, do remember the only dharma for a leader is to create more leaders. To do something meaningful, and then help a better person to take it forward.

If you made it this far, and do not know how to start. Here are some considerations for cold-starting your inquisition!

On Clarity: Clarity is found inside-out. If you are prone to overthinking → write. Writing slows your mind. If you are prone to underthinking → read. Reading is the best-known way to make the world’s knowledge your own. If you have trouble with both, I suggest read and write. Finally, to absolutely nail clarity, I suggest take up teaching. In my learning, the only one who truly benefits from teaching is the teacher himself.

On building stories: Once you have clarity, have the courage to share it. Practice public speaking. Glossophobia is the widest fear, take steps to overcome it. Observe leaders in flow. I am a sucker for great leaders— from my dad to all my colleagues, teachers, I am always observing. I shamelessly copy-paste higher truths when I see them. Finally, I indulge in a tiny bit of idol worship! In moments of weakness, I borrow a lot from the lives of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Steve Jobs.

On People: People are hard, as they are the most unpredictable and thus consume the highest quantum of energy. Practice mindfulness. Be aware of your emotions, energy and their interplay. Have a healthy routine, you will be amazed to see the correlation between your people skills and a fit body. Practice gratitude and giving. All this will enhance your understanding of self and thus your empathy. Being a leader means being a net positive source of energy. Giving and expressing gratitude endlessly are the only known sources of replenishing energy besides plants of course!

*Monish Behl's character (2:00 to 2:35) in Hum Saath Saath Hai (in part inspired by Lord Shri Ram) is among the gold standards for leadership. If you agree, paste in a comment or email me on sachin@probo.in for leadership and more! I await your thoughts.

The highest influx of questions I receive is around a career in product management. From students to my peers from b-school; from designers to sales folks — everyone is intrigued to learn more. In complete honesty I was in the same shoes a few years back, hence I genuinely admire the passion for each reach-out I receive. Following blog is a summary of all the things I have learnt. I hope it helps all aspirants and incumbents with a different perspective on how to approach their career towards it.

PMing is the “in-thing”. It is a wonderful opportunity — it allows you to build, sell, express yourself, take ownership, work alongside smartest people, on the hardest problems. But by any stretch of imagination, it is not the “be-all, end-all” role that existing practitioners would make you believe!

More as you read along.

Product Management — a brief history of time

Product Management is not new. The terminology is. Ever since industrial revolution, products have existed. And so have managers who decide what the product should look like, GTM, price, so on. Thus, product management is as old as the history of products itself. Only that, as product families get mature the role gets unbundled into respective functions across — R&D, manufacturing, design, sales and marketing. Only when we understand the history, can we put the current trend in perspective.

For the rest of the blog, will narrow the focus towards a tech PM (or a PM in a tech company). It is important to understand, like erstwhile PMs in automobiles, retail, infrastructure, this role is also under evolution. Following would be my summary to build a long term career in tech.

A. User Empathy: Understanding people is a skill. Understanding that same people behave differently under different contexts is a power. Unwavering focus on building what user wants is a super power. Having user empathy and translating them into products that users love also requires problem solving, storytelling, & program management. However, it is important to not confuse the trees for the forest. Truly exceptional products across all industries are borne out of love. A unique and undying love to create magic is a common theme across all great product managers I have learnt from. While problem-solving, analytical thinking, storytelling are critical skills, please do remember after a level, they will stop being differentiators. Your own unique way of understanding users and making elegant, simple products that people will love is the only thing that would stand out. Simplifying products and understanding people are life-long investments.

Pause for an important note: Strategy, business, management are secondary skills. Only two primary skills are selling and building.

Selling well is user empathy. And with user empathy as the bedrock, building consists of the following three hard skills.

B. Design: Design involves graphics, user interfaces, user interactions, colors, copy, flows and most importantly feels. Typical design team may consist of designers (UI, UX or both), and researchers. Design is the language through which humans experience the product. Design is not just aesthetics, but it is a deep excavation in the human mind, triggering senses that the user themselves are unable to explain. Design is reverse engineering the human emotions, and triggering them at will via product. Learn design by reading on design philosophy/ psychology, following great teams/ individuals, deconstructing great products you love and most importantly practicing.

C. Development: Engineering is not just code, but a complete stack of technology. Architecture (e.g. monolith vs API), language (Node vs Java), Environment (Native vs React), Databases — each are choices. Engineering teams consists of front end engineers, back-end engineers, architects, infra/ platform and testing teams. For context, just front end is manifested very differently across android, iOS, and web interfaces. If engineering is a hindrance in your product management journey, start by learning. And do not worry, it was the same for me. Learn engineering by watching youtube videos, taking online courses, learning from a friend/ colleague, coding basic APIs, and best if you learn no/low code tools. Understand your developers better professionally (what they do) and personally (why they do). Winning the respect of your devs is the highest RoI activity a PM can do. Great thread on building relations with devs here

D. Data: Only area of product development I was relatively comfortable with thanks to my long lineage in analytics. I can go endlessly. By data I mean the entire spectrum of:

• Tools: Excel →SQL →Python
• Techniques: Co-relation →Regression →Neural Networks
• Complexity: business analytics →data analytics →data science.

Data teams consist of data engineers, analysts and scientists. Data grounds all product managers to promise lands they promised. Data is needed for building hypotheses, doing A/B tests, surfacing users insights, and creating delightful user experiences (think TikTok recommendations). Understanding data well makes you efficient and sharper with decisions. But they can also be a crutch if you are just beholden to just data for decision making

In my dictionary, great PMs excel at user empathy, and are proficient in at least one hard skill, and are conversant on all dimensions. If you are neither conversant in any of the above, no stress — always a good time to start.

If you are an existing and young PM, I would advise you to continue building further proficiency in data, design and engineering. In the long evolution, there will be no generalist PM, it is a short term bug. The future will belong to the specialists. No sooner do designers start appreciating data, or engineers taking interest in talking to stakeholders, or data scientists wanting to write PRDs, market value for generalists will start tanking. The coolest companies of the future will not hire us off b-schools. Do not believe me → Ask folks in the valley what is harder getting into FAANG or the hottest series C company?

Finally, if you are a designer, engineer or data scientist that believes product management is a redundant layer, you are not completely wrong! But PMs do provide a very important function. They make decisions, and each time they do, they risk their neck on the line. It is this virtue that makes them so lovely!

Always open to discussing more on product management. Reachable at sachin@probo.in.

The value of time is entirely evident when SuperHuman charges $30/ mo and yet maintains a long waitlist. SuperHuman’s email client is a trail blazer. All keystrokes are optimised, every user move pre-empted and each of user wishes cradled for. Using SuperHuman is akin to peeping into the future. With complete respect to Rahul Vohra (the founder), and my imminent colleagues who swear by the product, I feel it solves for only the symptom. It does not eradicate the disease. The symptom is an unhealthy obsession with inbox = 0. Thus, I fear, using SuperHuman and a wide variety of SuperHuman for X tools solve only for surficial productivity. Productivity is far deeper than using any tool. On contrary, whatever little history I have read suggests real productivity requires freedom from all external tools.

Understanding Productivity

Let me start with a discomforting truth, 99% of our efforts eventually go in vain. In our existential pride, we choose to ignore this power law. Or worse fight this notion. I myself am guilty of doing this. Before you stop reading further, let me ask you to do a quick mental retrospective of your life till date to arrive at this conclusion yourself :) It must be made extremely clear, solving for productivity does not also mean we cease our efforts and await the 1% to magically appear. However, it does begin with questioning our busyness. Listen to Bill Gates’ talk about it — this was the starting point of this blog a couple of years ago. Now that you are still here, let us define productivity for the future course of this discussion.

Productivity = Output/ Input

Output is sum total of impact we generate or help generate. Input is time, energy and will power invested.

Theoretically, all humans are endowed with equal access to mother nature in terms of time, energy and will-power. Then how is it that leaders like Buffet, Jobs, Obama, Gandhi, Modi are able to generate phenomenal outcomes with the same finite resources. It comes from understanding the law of physics that governs individual growth.

Short detour: Have you ever wondered how Narendra Modi (plug in your favourite leader) goes about his usual day? Imagine a day in his life over last 9 months — waking up to Galwan incursion, fortifying Covid preparedness in the face of acute personnel and material shortage, assuaging labour migration concern, revamping farm laws while leading a brutal state electoral campaign. One can argue that he possesses vast machinery that does actual work. But then, anyone who has managed even a fraction of this complexity and uncertainty realises how draining the journey is. To do it every day for 20 years requires a level of tooling far evolved than any available off the shelf.

The secret these great individuals possess is an unlock to a higher orbit of functioning. It is called being in "flow". Each of us has experienced flow, we keep interspersing in and out of flow all the time. Worst, whatever flow we achieve evaporates, as soon, as we realise we are in flow. Albeit, unlike us, the evolved beings are able to maintain it as a permanent state.

Productivity comes from being in flow

For the penultimate part of this discussion, I shall use Gandhiji’s teachings to further elucidate on flow.

We all know about Mahatma and his contributions. I also understand the spectrum of opinions that debate his real contribution to the independence movement. How no Indian true to his heart can deny the imprint he has left on the world. Gandhi continues to live within us through his teachings and also through the countless world leaders that he helped inspire viz Mandela, Obama, Modi, and so on. It is but fair to use Gandhi as an example to understand how in a matter of just a couple of decades, he aroused 300mn to overthrow a tyrant rule without lifting a finger.

Most of the literature I read on Gandhi, suggests most of his time post his return to India was spent in jail, or in his ashram — feeding cattle, meditating, spinning, writing, thinking, listening, and framing rules for Satyagraha. Very little to suggest he was organising, scheduling, meeting, rallying. A lot of people are surprised when I tell them Mahatma returned to India only in his 40s. He led a perfectly material life similar to yours and mine for no less than 2 decades across UK and South Africa. For all practical purposes, Gandhi achieved his true flow only post mid-life. Thus, achieving flow is not a function of age but a matter of choice. In fact, it happens with us all the time, we just need to find a way to harness it in permanently.

Being in flow is a lifelong pursuit

I shall extend one of the most widely used Mahatma quotes to establish our premise on flow — “Happiness is when what you think, what you say and what you do is in harmony. Being happy is being in flow”. There are three stages to being in flow

1. Thinking clearly is the single biggest source of productivity. For clear thinking happens in absence of fear, or anxiety. It eludes us when we are consumed with pride, jealousy, or gluttony. And it is definitely extinct near anger. Clear thinking does however flourish in the presence of love and compassion. I am not sermonizing biblical advice, but sheer physics of how the mind works. Observing the mind requires focus. Only when we are able to remove the duality induced by ego is when answers come clearly. Just like in order for our devices to work clearly, we need to regularly clear our cache; thinking clearly requires us to continually clear our mind of all the junk and garbage that accumulates. Leaders have used meditation, long walks, journaling, exercising to cleanse the mind of junk.
2. Saying the truth is the most underrated long term productivity hack. Understand this part correctly. Communicating exactly how you are thinking is an art. A lot of our clear thinking gets instantly muddled when the opportunity to present it to the external world arises. “How will others perceive it”, is the single biggest reason for the truth to vitiate. We fail to translate our real feelings by either overpromising or under committing. Each such deviance from what we think and what we say (aka untruth), burns an imprint on the mind. It does make life easy in short term, but each untruth then proceeds with its own growth. One that has to be continually fed and nurtured in order to maintain continuity. One the other hand, truth does not need watering, for it is always present. I am yet to find a person who innately likes saying untruth. It is a sorry side-product of the times we live in.
3. Taking action is the final step in translating our thoughts and words into results. Generally, taking actions is easy when you have the winds behind your sail. However, it requires tremendous belief when the chips are down. To this, I say, "Fear is a disease, and hustle the only antidote" — Travis Kalanick or if you prefer Einstein — "Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you need to keep moving." Each time you are beset with uncertainty, I urge you to take action. With a clear mind, and true heart — there is no bigger sin than to not act. Always remember, productivity is zero, not infinity in absence of inputs.

We must realize that the most commonly advocated productivity practices such as 1) skilful manipulation of the calendar to manage time, and energy, 2) management tools to build leverage and measure effectiveness, 3) mastering email and communication are not first-order truths. They are important, but only second-order optimizations. Real productivity comes from choosing the right war to fight. And that requires us to work inward daily to attune ourselves to a fundamental plane. Finally, the rules of being in flow viz thinking, saying and acting also extend to teams. Most small teams that have conquered the world were glued as one extended multi-organism. How teams achieve flow, is a topic for another blog.

Note from author:
Once you understand flow, folks with young kids at home would quickly ascertain that we are born with flow. Somewhere down the journey, most of us have lost touch. It is time to rekindle: 2021 is around the corner, so is the time for resolutions. What is the one thing you always wanted to do but have not yet been able to? Now that you understand productivity, I am sure you will be able to carve time, energy and willpower. If not, I am always a ping away.

*Recommend this book "Flow — the psychology of optimal experience"