Knowing the future (the future of business, the future of tech, our own future) feels so crucial yet so far away for so many.

This hurdle reminds me of a similar conundrum I had when I was in Elementary school. Back in those days, I had this huge desire to become the next big inventor. I thought of ideas, wrote them down, and often participated in the school’s annual “Invention Convention”.

While I enjoyed my young pursuit to be the next Tesla, I remember frequently being frustrated. Frustration often happens when you are attempting to do the impossible. I wanted so bad to be innovative that I was leaping to conclusions and grasping at straws. Roller blades with rockets attached made for a cool drawing but was there a market? Did it solve a problem?

Inventing, at the time, seemed like guessing mixed with a hard dose of luck. That dose of luck is what I figured others called genius when it worked out. In my mind, ingenious folks simply guessed correctly, so they were rewarded.

At that young age, I failed to grasp one major understanding. Tomorrow’s future is always rooted in today. My dad would encourage me, seemingly delivering the same message which I didn’t comprehend, “Don’t invent something. Solve a problem .” He understood that while the light bulb apparently came into existence out of thin air that it innovated on the desire for candles and problem of darkness.

What feels like a leap of innovation or a stroke of genius from an outside perspective, really is a simple progression of need. The products or outcomes might be stair stepping upwards, but the demand and capacity to fill said demand is always gradually building to that.

That’s why thinking about the future has less to do with guessing and everything to do with understanding people’s behaviors, their wants, and their desires today. Don’t invent something, solve a problem. Don’t guess at where we will be in 5 years, think about what about problems can are solvable now.

Every day we have more resources, more information, and more technology to meet the problems of yesterday. Problems that were made into mountains become more like molehills every single day.

Those solutions, those opportunities, when executed upon, are glimpses into the future.

It represents the goal you are trying to accomplish AND the system by which you are trying to accomplish it.

This idea of having a 1 in 10,000 chance of making a basketball shot is referenced. If you understand that your conversion rate is .0001, you simply have to decide if taking 10,000 shots is worth the victory of making 1.

At the end of the day, it can often time feel like a heavy decision. This is especially true if the conversion rate is seemingly low. In the example, we talk about doing something 10,000 times. Truth is, most people don’t like doing something 50 times or 100 times without a success. But again, that’s the power of understanding and using conversion rates to make a decision.

What’s beautiful is, once we decide to take on and execute upon the 10,000 shots, it all gets easier from there. Once you begin, your chances of failure, under the same circumstances, never get any worse and you’ve already decided you’re prepared to stomach “code red”.

With each shot and each attempt, your conversion rate and the system can and will get better, making things easier.

There are 2 keys to this.

Key #1 Changing up your approach

Just because you have set out to accomplish a goal, make a sale, or convert a lead doesn’t mean you have to use the exact system you’ve always used to accomplish that. If you missed a basketball shot or served a volleyball poorly, you wouldn’t do the exact same motion on your next try.

“If you always do what you’ve always done, you always get what you’ve always gotten.”

Try to go about converting using a slightly different method. Change the inflection in your voice. Use different language. Call at different times. Survey the situation. Went went well? What didn’t go so well? Figure out how to adjust.

Maybe a text instead of a phone call gets a better response? Maybe you need something more personal like a handwritten letter?

Not all prospects or leads respond to the same olive branch. Utilizing different methods gives us a better chance of stumbling upon something that aligns with our desired outcome.

Key #2 It’s all practice. Don’t give up.

The other twist to this whole thing involves this “practice makes perfect” line we’ve all heard so much.

A system, however rigid and defined (or not), is simply a mechanism for keeping completing a task repeated.

Each shot, each attempt, and each “no” isn’t a loss. It’s practice. When we practice, our system gets better. Every opportunity we give ourselves, even if its 1 of the 9,999 shots that don’t go in, we are naturally getting better. We are increasing our conversion rate.

With each attempt, your brain is forming a better understanding of the task and how to accomplish it. New neural pathways are being formed. Your brain, subconsciously, is completing Key #1 but on a much larger and much smaller scale. Micro movements are being memorized. Muscles are being conditioned. You feel more comfortable and that translates to better communication and less nervousness.

Regardless, that .0001 conversion rate is slowly moving in our favor. Sometimes it’s only .00001%, but that’s okay. Every attempt reveals more information about what we should or should not be doing.

Consider your obstacle, understand the probability of success, commit to the process, stick with it and you’ll win.

Originally published at http://www.jeffreybuettner.com on May 21, 2017.

In my last article, I talk about the mindset behind creating the future, jump starting it yourself. Sometimes though, the train of innovation has already left the station. The groundwork is laid, and we are already headed to that destination.

These opportunities tend to have the greatest reward with not (quite) as much up front risk or energy. Because of that, recognizing them at the right time can be hugely powerful. Think along the lines of investing in a start up that has already had its first year of struggle. Jumping in to help push a car is always easier if it’s already moving a bit.

So how do we recognize when the future is in progress even if it doesn’t immediately look like it?

How do we know when the stage is set and we are just waiting for our actors?

While everyone might accomplish this differently, I believe we all do in fact do this in our everyday lives. For my brain, there is a trigger phrase. A common phrase that triggers me to realize I’ve stumbled onto something is “That doesn’t make sense.” That phrase isn’t profound or deeper than the words themselves. I rationalize it as my brain’s realization that this problem, whatever it is, has been solved somewhere else. That realized solution just isn’t being implemented in whatever example we are looking at.

When I had the radio going in my car but knew I could listen to a podcast, on demand, from my phone, something clicked, and a change followed. At the moment, not utilizing the better technology didn’t make sense. Switching to podcasts isn’t some revelation, but that phrase marked the moment where my thinking forked.

Inventions or innovation happen the same way. Zuckerberg thought that it didn’t make sense that everyone at his school didn’t know everyone else’s relationship status and his brain got to work. His brain recognized the problem and realized he had the technical wherewithal to fix it.

Someone needed to see the power of the internet and understand that another particular need wasn’t being filled. Your brain usually recognizes these solutions subconsciously before you’ve fully put the pieces together.
Something trigger Mark and, because he backed it with action, our future was born.

The first part of understanding the future is accepting when things “don’t make sense.” The second part is figuring out the reason why. Finally, if we can connect all of that to a solution, we can believe we’ve stumbled on to something that, if backed with action, will probably change. We know a different future is in progress.

Originally published at http://www.jeffreybuettner.com on April 17, 2017.

If you tell me “Hey, I bet you can’t make a basketball shot from across the court while blindfolded.” I wouldn’t immediately dismiss the challenge but, instead, pose some follow-up questions. How many shots do I get to try? How long can I practice? Do I have to do a traditional basketball shot?
If I have to hit a standing jumper from across the court with one opportunity, I’m going to politely decline. If I’m given more shots, more practice, or a better system to accomplish the task, we might have ourselves a deal.

How a number is calculated versus what it represents is almost always different.

The conversion rate of something is the # of successes divided by the # of opportunities to succeed.

Your conversion rate tells a story. It represents the goal you are trying to accomplish AND the system by which you are trying to accomplish it. It’s those two factors in combination that are important.

Once we understand our conversion rate, even if it’s estimated or even if it’s a rough number, we can begin to better evaluate the task and if we have the stomach to grant ourselves enough opportunities to succeed.

If my conversion rate of making that basketball shot is .0001 (or 1 in 10,000), the only thing I have left to figure out is if I want to sit here and take 10,000 shots. Is the reward big enough to warrant that much investment?

Ultimately, this type of evaluation is being done all of the time, subconsciously and internally, whether we realize we are doing it or not. Misunderstandings can arise if we don’t plug in some rough numbers and understand the calculations that stand in front of our success.

If we proceed forward anyways with our misunderstanding and don’t immediately see results or have the unstoppable willpower to never give up, we almost never have the stomach to make the full investment.

We see this play out once we listen to feedback from a person trying to accomplish a goal, work leads, or implement the new marketing strategy.

Generalized statements about the lack of success with something almost always is an indication one of two scenarios, the misunderstanding about the conversion rate of a goal or a declaration of one’s appetite to give themselves (or their business) enough opportunities to succeed.

Let’s go back to the basketball example. You say to me “If you shoot the ball underhand, it’ll significantly increase your chances of making the shot from across the court.” I give it two tests, fail, and declare that method doesn’t work.

Does it mean the underhand shot isn’t better or more efficient? No. It means you and I had different understandings surrounding the increased rate of success. We had different understandings of the new conversion rate.

Additionally, I might simply say “Oh, I could never make that shot regardless if it’s underhand or not.” Do I really think that there are zero circumstances by which I can make the shot? Or am I simply opting out of the investment needed to give myself enough opportunity to succeed (those 10,000 attempts)?

When we start to utilize this way of thinking, a path to success becomes much more clear. When we stumble or have doubt, we can no longer blame the system. We knew what we were getting into and we decided to proceed forward.

What I love about this way of thinking is the ball is always in our court (basketball pun intended), nothing is impossible, and everything boils down to two questions. What will take to succeed? Are we up for it?

Originally published at http://www.jeffreybuettner.com on February 27, 2017.