This is a warning for the rest of the country.

Over the last three weeks Florida has seen up-close the preferred GOP/ NRA response to the heightened pressure and focus on gun reform.

Florida’s “school safety” bill (SB 7026) is not cause for celebration.

We have been so starved for any kind of win, and so defeated by the NRA over the years, that we aren’t thinking clearly about what just happened in Florida. This is the playbook they will use for the rest of the country:

1. Republicans will add a poison pill of arming teachers to any negotiation on gun reform. This is where they want you to focus.
2. They will include large non-recurring investments in mental health and “school hardening” to steer the conversation toward people, not guns.
3. They will throw in modest gun reforms to placate the movement.
4. Republicans will fall back on the second amendment to defeat any comprehensive gun reform proposals.
5. They will recruit the grieving families to lobby legislators and urge them to “do something” even if the bill includes dangerous provisions.
6. Republicans will accuse us of playing politics or unwilling to compromise.
7. They will water down arming teachers to peel off just enough Democrats to pass a bill.

There is reason to be hopeful. The advocacy of the Parkland students forced Florida lawmakers to debate guns and school safety for the first time in twenty years.

However, the legislative strategy failed, and we are not much better off than where we started. In fact for black and brown students, it’s worse.

We must do better in DC.

Let’s be clear about what’s in 7026.

Florida just created a government sponsored program that trains school personnel (including some teachers) to carry firearms in schools, and the government is subsidizing the purchase of those firearms. The program is currently optional, but if you know Florida, then you know nearly half the State will have teachers packing heat by the end of the year.

If that sounds familiar it’s because NRA’s Wayne LaPierre has been demanding arming teachers since Sandy Hook. It’s the NRA’s #1 priority and its solution to school shooting: more gun, more guns, more guns.

The Overton Window, the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse, just shifted radically toward the NRA’s dystopian vision in which everyone open carries and there’s a good guy with a gun at every corner.

This idea used to be dismissed and laughed at. Now, it is part of the normal public policy debate around gun reform. It doesn’t help that liberal pundits are celebrating the bill’s modest reforms, and only mention “arming teachers” in passing, as they read the long list of things included in 7026.

Make no mistake, Florida will be the model for the country. Just ask our Senator, Marco Rubio.

Marco Rubio on Twitter

When #Florida House passes school safety bill today,it will be,in no small part,b/c despite different views on some issues,led by @rpetty & Andrew Pollack the families of #Parkland victims found common cause on what they did agree on. Hopefully D.C. will follow their example.

If you need a reminder why arming teachers is so dangerous, just ask teachers, police, veterans, and insurance companies. It is particularly dangerous for students and teachers of color, especially in a country with rising white nationalism. Sherrilyn Ifill, President of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund published an article this week: Black Children Will Be The Victims of Armed Teachers. She writes:

Although the perpetrators of mass school shootings have been almost exclusively white, there’s little doubt that arming teachers will lead disproportionately to the killing — by teachers — of children of color.

If that seems extreme, it’s not. Remember it was a volunteer of the neighborhood watch that racially profiled and murdered Trayvon Martin (in Florida!). Just a few days ago, a middle-school teacher was revealed to be a white nationalist podcaster (also in Florida!). And the Tampa Bay Times identified more than 80 educators (in Florida!) “who acted violently, made threats or were charged with a gun crime.” Thirteen threatened to shoot their students.

Now, we are forced to go school district by school district, and there are 67 in Florida, to urge them not to arm teachers. That should keep us busy.

The bill also includes resources for mental health and “school hardening,” policy ideas that align well with the NRA’s worldview that guns are not the problem, it’s people we have to control.

School hardening is a euphemism for turning our schools into high-security prison-like environments. It means adding metal detectors at every entrance, installing bulletproof glass in every window, and purchasing new steel-reinforced doors.

The problem is twofold. First, treating children like criminals instills fear and subverts the culture of what should be a learning institution. Second, mass shootings don’t simply happen at schools. They happen in movie theaters, concerts, night clubs, and churches. Are we supposed to live in a world surrounded by bullet proof glass? School hardening reinforces the tragic and false assumption that we cannot do anything about guns.

NPR wrote an article on 200 universities, national education and mental health groups, school districts, and more than 2,300 individual experts that came together with a report to prevent mass shootings.

Their topline message: Don’t harden schools. Make them softer, by improving social and emotional health.

Democrats were so blinded about “doing something” for the families and the specter of arming teachers was so great, that there was not a single debate in the House or Senate about whether school hardening was the right policy solution.

There are good parts of the bill that served to placate the gun reform movement.

It raises the age to 21 to buy a long gun and it includes a 3-day wait period. Both are small steps in the right direction. Although it’s important to note that most mass shooters have been over the age of 21.

The bill also includes a ban on bump stocks that allow semiautomatic rifles to act like automatic weapons. This really should be obvious, and I refuse to give gold stars for something as simple as preventing automatic-style weaponry.

The most important provision is the creation of red flag laws that allows law enforcement to confiscate firearms from dangerous individuals. This is important, and partly why EveryTown began urging lawmakers to pass 7026.

However, the bill does not include any comprehensive gun reform proposals. Over 20% of firearms are purchased privately, not through a licensed gun dealer, and so they do not require a background check. An amendment to close this loophole was rejected on a nearly party-line vote.

The bill does not include any bans on semiautomatic rifles or high capacity magazines. They are still as easy to purchase as always, and will likely be used in the next mass shooting.

There were over 30 amendments proposed by Democrats to strengthen this legislation from gun registries to a 2-year moratorium on AR-15s, all but one (diversity training for teachers) were rejected.

There is reason to be hopeful. The advocacy of the Parkland students forced Florida lawmakers to debate guns and school safety for the first time in twenty years.

However, the legislative strategy failed. Too many Democrats cut deals with the Republican majority. The advocacy of the parents and students proved to be narrowly focused on simply “doing something,” without a critical analysis on the policy implications for the rest of Florida. And Republicans shamelessly turned grieving parents into their most powerful lobbyists.

We need to do better at the national level. We must. Listen to the over 2,300 experts referenced by NPR. They have a real and comprehensive plan to prevent the next mass shooting.

In Florida, we are not much better off than where we started. In fact for black and brown students, it’s worse. As Representative Bobby Dubose said during a passionate speech on the floor, “my son will not feel safe.”

The national media needs to more critically analyze what happened in Florida before celebrating, because more than likely Wayne LaPierre is celebrating too.

update: the Florida Senate is voting to arm teachers today (Saturday 3/3/18), call the numbers below and tell them to vote NO on the “Marshall program.” If it’s included in the final bill, they must vote the whole thing down!

The Florida legislature is poised to pass legislation right now that will allow teachers to carry firearms.

The Republican bill SPB 7026 has passed all necessary committees in both the Florida House and Senate and will be voted on the floor likely next week.

Let me be clear, the NRA Republicans have never asked us to compromise. This is a legislative hostage situation.

We need you to lift up the phone and call the phone numbers listed below, today; or there may not be a tomorrow for the gun reform movement.

After Sandy Hook, the solution proposed by the NRA was to arm teachers. It was dismissed then (as it should be now) as a crazy idea.

Even some Democrats are voting for the NRA’s terrible bill because grieving Parkland parents who lost loved ones are asking us to compromise.

We cannot argue with their grief, but we must stand our ground on this one. This isn’t about politics, it’s about making the world we live in safer.

What started in the Florida legislature as two separate bills SPB 7022 which included some of the modest gun reforms and SPB 7026 which included arming teachers was merged into one bill at the last minute.

WHY?

The reason is simple.

It’s a craven and manipulative strategy led by NRA politicians to pass the Arming Teachers language.

The students who sparked the #NeverAgain movement had three central demands:

1. Banning the AR-15 and similar high-powered rifles
2. Banning high-capacity magazines
3. Universal background checks.

Cowardly Florida Republicans didn’t even dignify the brave and still grieving students of Parkland with a discussion on those three issues.

Instead, Republicans proposed “reforms” in this bill which have massive loopholes so obvious, revealing them publicly might even make NRA super lobbyist Marion Hammer blush, if she was capable of shame.

Reforms like “school hardening” are premised on the tragic assumption that we will continue living in a world with AR-15s and active shooter drills.

The NRA’s central demand to arm teachers, which failed after Sandy Hook, and for years after every other mass shooting, seems likely to pass.

So, whatever the NRA might be saying in public about their tepid opposition to this bill, in private, they’re popping champagne bottles.

If we let this disaster proceed without a fight, the NRA (with Trump) will use Florida, as they always do, as the model for national gun “reform,” i.e. to sell more guns.

Instead of a crazy idea, arming teachers will become part of the normal national policy debate.

Without action today, we will lose the policy debate even before the kids get a chance to march on Washington.

Other states that are more conservative than Florida will pass similar legislation, and perhaps make it mandatory for school districts instead of voluntary.

I’ve just described exactly how the gun lobby turns every defeat for school safety into a win for gun manufacturers.

Florida’s more conservative school districts are already working on how to implement the terrible idea of armed teachers.

More guns in schools is NOT the answer.

And let’s be extra clear about who this will impact most: black and brown kids who already face daily discrimination in a country that is normalizing white nationalism.

Now, not only do those parents have to have “the talk” with their kids when it comes to law enforcement, now we must ask them to be cautious around their teachers too.

If arming teachers becomes the legacy after the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas, then that will be the second tragedy of Parkland.

I urge the students who sparked this movement to demand the removal of this language and if it’s not removed to demand the defeat of this bill entirely.

We must shift the debate today.

The great debate should be how we build safer communities not better armed communities.

If we fail, the next student who is murdered in a school will likely be a student of color and instead of an AR-15, it will be with a handgun.

CALL YOUR SENATORS TODAY:

Chair: Senator Rob Bradley (R)
(850) 487–5005; bradley.rob@flsenate.gov

Senator Lauren Book (D)
(850) 487–5032; book.lauren@flsenate.gov

Vice Chair: Senator Anitere Flores (R)
(850) 487–5039; flores.anitere@flsenate.gov

Senator Randolph Bracy (D)
(850) 487–5011; Bracy.randolph@flsenate.gov

Senator Dennis Baxley (R)
(850) 487–5012; baxley.dennis@flsenate.gov

Senator Oscar Braynon II (D)
(850) 487–5035; braynon.oscar@flsenate.gov

Senator Aaron Bean (R)
(850) 487–5004; bean.aaron@flsenate.gov

Senator Audrey Gibson (D)
(850) 487–5006; gibson.audrey@flsenate.gov

Senator David Simmons (R)
(850) 487–5009; simmons.david@flsenate.gov

Senator Bill Montford (D)
(850) 487–5003; montford.bill@flsenate.gov

Senator Jeff Brandes (R)
(850) 487–5024; brandes.jeff@flsenate.gov

Senator Bobby Powell (D)
(850) 487–5030; powell.bobby@flsenate.gov

Senator George B. Gainer (R)
(850) 487–5002; gainer.george@flsenate.gov

Senator Linda Stewart (D)
(850) 487–5013; stewart.linda@flsenate.gov

Senator Bill Galvano (R)
(850) 487–5021; galvano.bill@flsenate.gov

Senator Wilton Simpson (R)
(850) 487–5010; Simpson.wilton@flsenate.gov

Senator Denise Grimsley (R)
(850) 487–5026; Grimsley.denise@flsenate.gov

Senator Kelli Stargel (R)
(850) 487–5022; stargel.kelli@flsenate.gov

Senator Kathleen Passidomo (R)
(850) 487–5028; passidomo.kathleen@flsenate.gov

Senator Lizbeth Benacquisto (R)
(850) 487–5027; benacquisto.lizbeth@flsenate.gov

Senator Greg Steube
(850) 487–5023; steube.greg@flsenate.gov

Senator Rob Bradley
(850) 487–5005; bradley.rob@flsenate.gov

Senator Rene Garcia
(850) 487–5036; garcia.rene@flsenate.gov

Senator Debbie Mayfield
(850) 487–5017; mayfield.debbie@flsenate.gov

Senator Perry Thurston
(850) 487–5033; thurston.perry@flsenate.gov

Find your legislator here.

Then I saw it. Pro-NRA politicians offering their “thoughts and prayers,” yet again, to the families of the victims. I’ve never felt angrier. F*** your thoughts and prayers, Marco Rubio. Three million. That’s how much money you accepted from the National Rifle Association. Shame on you!

Sandy Hook was supposed to be it. Then San Bernardino. Then Pulse. Then Vegas. Now Parkland.

This time is different, though. You can feel it.

I felt it when I heard the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas speak at Saturday’s rally. I felt it when Emma Gonzalez stated fiercely, wiping tears away, that this will be the last mass shooting.

I believe her.

You can feel the movement building and the NRA politicians starting to doubt themselves. On Thursday, they postponed a bill they previously thought was a slam dunk: a background check loophole sneakily stuck inside a massive 90 page agriculture appropriation bill. Today, they postponed an NRA favorite: allowing teachers to carry firearms.

This Wednesday students and their family members are rallying in Tallahassee. Miami-Dade Delegation Chair Representative Kionne McGhee is calling for civil disobedience until we ban assault weapons. Students around the country are planning a national school walkout in March. And the chants of Enough! are reverberating across Florida.

The cynics, however, will swiftly point out that there are no quick victories in the heavily Republican-dominated Florida legislature.

Exhibit A. In response to Parkland, the incoming Speaker of the House, Republican Jose Oliva said, “you don’t take cars off the road because someone got drunk, used one and killed someone.” Not even NRA lobbyist Marion Hammer would say something that incredibly tone deaf. That’s what we have to deal with, not only in the current legislature but in the next one too should Republicans hold their majority and Oliva get re-elected.

Which brings me to what former Republican Congressman David Jolly said the day after Parkland: “you will not get any action on guns until you vote out the Republicans.” Agreed.

Luckily, students are not only calling out Republican bullshit rhetoric, but also hitting them where it hurts: votes. They’re making gun reform the central issue of this election. And they don’t care if you’re a Democrat, Republican, or Libertarian. If you’re pro-NRA, then they’re coming for you. As it should be.

But we must give voters a choice.

Right now there are 25 incumbent state legislators with an A or A+ rating from the NRA without any opposition whatsoever. Another 8 incumbent state legislators with an A or A+ NRA rating without Democratic opposition. One of them is Jose Oliva.

If you are reading this and you live in one of these uncontested districts, listen carefully: RUN. Run on the issue of gun reform. Run to protect the lives of your loved ones. Run like your life depended on it.

Many of these districts are in traditionally conservative areas. RUN anyway. Believe it or not, conservatives know in their gut that civilians don’t need weapons of war, that high-capacity magazines are not an inalienable right, and that children’s lives are worth more than protecting the hobbies of a few.

Gun reform advocates must run in EVERY seat. This needs to be a central issue of this election. Together, we must knock on as many doors as we can, talk to as many voters as possible, ask people to envision a better and safer future, and in doing so, change the politics of guns forever.

Trust me. This time is different. This time we will win. And this time, there will be no next time.

Juan Cuba is Chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. He is the former Political Director of the Service Employees International Union Florida State Council, former Chair of Engage Miami, and a former White House staffer for President Obama