The expulsion of the Ethiopian Ambassador from Somalia, while a significant step, may unfortunately be deemed too little, too late. Moreover, it risks being counterproductive to Somalia’s long-term national security interests. The timing of this action is particularly unfortunate as Somalia is currently grappling with severe political divisions, exacerbated by the contentious amendment of the federal constitution and Puntland’s temporary withdrawal from the federal political and constitutional structures.

Unfortunately, pressuring Puntland to withdraw from federal political structures has only served to strengthen Ethiopia’s political grip on our country and expand its dominance over Somalia’s political and security affairs.

Ethiopia already wields considerable influence in Somaliland and holds significant sway in Southwest State.

It is imperative to recognize that the deep political divisions among the our people only serve to further entrench Ethiopian control over our internal affairs. As the proverb goes, »Gudin yahay imaad goyseene badhkay baa kugu jira,» emphasizing the urgent need to address our nation’s political challenges to effectively defend Somalia’s long term national security interests.

What is urgently needed are comprehensive policies and strategies aimed at safeguarding Somalia’s sovereignty and protecting its national security interests. This necessitates fostering political cohesion among the Somali people to counteract negative foreign influences and uphold our nation’s autonomy.

SOOMAALIYA HA NOOLAATO!

Unless a direct violent military confrontation is staged, it is going to be extremely difficult to stop Farmaajo and his Qatar alliance from stealing the election. However, a violent military confrontation against Farmaajo has no legal, political, or moral justifications for the reason given above. In short, supporting publicly what Khadar Guled did and denouncing the selection of Yasin Farey as a federal MP is a colossal moral and political hypocrisy that will boomerang on them with a devastating political consequence.

For the opposition, as things stand now, there are few options with time-sensitive and very short political shelf life. The most plausible ones from a pool of bad options are as follows:

• Accept defeat and continue participating in the selection (election) process, grinding the teeth in despair, and praying for miracles along the way. This is handing victory to Farmaajo, plunging the country into an uncertain future, and betraying the Somali people’s democratic political aspirations.
• Boycott the entire selection (election) process because Farmaajo is not conducting the election in accordance with the provisional Somali federal constitution and political agreements reached by all stakeholders in the run-up to the selection (election).
• Call for an emergency national consultative conference as soon as possible whereby all the Somali political stakeholders are invited. Federal member states’ presidents, the presidential candidates, and prominent opposition leaders could unite on a political platform to organize this emergency national consultative conference with the sole objective of making sure that the the election takes place as soon as possible and the processes are democratic, transparent, and inclusive.

Allowing Farmaajo to steal the election is not an option. Hence, we must do everything we can to prevent the looming disaster from happening. The Somali people deserve a better future!

As the saying goes, “Ceelna uma qodna, cidina uma maqna!”

With all due respect to both Ex-president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed — Farmaajo and to Mohamed Hussen Rooble, I must say that to me, both men are empty and rudderless vessels sinking in the ocean and appointed on dubious political rationale. Neither of them had never, ever, articulated any meaningful political opinion of any kind. They had no political knowledge, no experience when they were selected and appointed. They have little understanding of the political dynamics in the country and the huge political, security, and socio-economic challenges facing Somalia.

Tragically, neither of them can articulate a vision for the country. In fact, they are narrow-minded and low-level administrative bureaucrats from overseas. So why would anyone expect any meaningful political solutions from them? They cannot offer anything even if they wanted to.

I understand that some people mistakes believe that Rooble could be a useful political tool that could be utilized to help rescue our country from the brink of a renewed civil war but that is an argument based on pure fantasy. Rooble cannot be expected to do something beyond his mental and physical abilities.

The sad fact is, Rooble lacks the political and intellectual faculties to lead our country at this critical time. He is the wrong man for the job. We must not make the same mistake twice.

The notion that Farmaajo is to be rejected and Rooble is the man that will rescue our people and our country is irrational and a wishful thinking. It is like someone saying that I do not like the king, but I will a negotiated political settlement that the king will respect with his servant. It is worth mentioning that Farmaajo appointed Rooble. Hence, Rooble cannot, under the current political environment, disobey his master.

In short, Rooble is not, can never be another Nuur Cadde! He is too weak and lacks the experience and the political courage that the late Somali prime minister had.

Eid Mubarak!

Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian government have an arsenal of political and military instruments that they can utilize in order to coerce the Somalis. Briefly stated, the following are few of the key ones:

Somaliland:

· Withdraw the security and political guarantees that Ethiopia implicitly provides to Somaliland government

· Encourage or support the political insurgency in Borama and western party of Somaliland

· Give political support to the opposition and crown Abdirahman Cirro as the main political actor in Somaliland. Cirro was in Addis Ababa recently and met with Pres Muse Bihi there

· Invite the political leaders in Khatumo and give political and material support to them making eastern regions ungovernable

· Allow the federal government to apply more political and security pressures on Somaliland and destabilize the fragile political system

· Isolate Somaliland politically and diplomatically

Somalia:

· Support Ahmed Madobe and the Jubaland state government

· Withdraw the military support to the federal government in Jubbaland and remove Ethiopian forces in Gedo region

· Give political and material support to its proxy; ASWJ in Galmudug

· Arm ASWJ fighters and withdraw Ethiopian forces in Dhusamareeb

· Encourage political opposition in Mogadishu and empower political and financially the key opposition leaders in Mogadishu

· Apply political and security pressures on Farmaajo through AMISOM and AU

· Support Puntland in order to weaken the federal government and Farmaajo presidency

· Withdraw the security protection Ethiopian military provides to South West president

· Remove or reduce Ethiopian military forces (those outside the AMISOM framework) in South West and Hirshabelle

· Encourage and support the opposition (and there are many) in South West

Ethiopia can organize political opposition and military insurgency in any corner of Somalia at will.

The aforementioned political and military instruments are not risk-free for Ethiopia. However, in the short-term, the application of political and military pressure will produce the desired results for Ethiopia.

The federal government, federal member states, and Somaliland need Ethiopian political and security support. They cannot afford to have Ethiopia as an enemy, without Ethiopian support they have serious political and security problems. Their longtime political survival depends on Ethiopia. It is very unfortunate, but it is an inescapable fact in Somalia.

With no laws, Somalia will continue to be in what Thomas Hobbs, the English seventeenth-century political philosopher described as the “State of Nature”, whereby the rule of the jungle is supreme. The Somali people have experienced the brutality of dictatorship, the death, and destruction of the civil war, the menace of the warlords and the cruel barbarism of Al Shabab.

How long can the suffering of the Somali people continue?

The view that Somalia’s political, economic, and security developments have to be arrested and the country has to be on a perpetual standstill until Farmaajo’s regime is gone is politically reckless, economically wrong and morally corrupt.

Safeguarding the key national security interests of Somalia and the political hostility towards Farmaajo’s ailing presidency must be separated, even though the two issues may seem intertwined at the outset. Farmaajo is not going to be in Villa Somalia much longer. However, the strategic national security interests of the country and the long-term political cohesion of the Somali people must have paramount importance. All Somalis must think beyond today’s myopic disagreements and political hostilities and consider thoughtfully how to create a better future for the Somali children.

The Petroleum Law is flawed and the people who are so zealously pushing it forward do not necessarily have Somalia’s best national interests at heart.

They are primarily working for foreign oil and gas interests. However, the sad realities that all Somalis must come to terms with are the fact that whoever is in Villa Somalia at any given time will inevitably succumb to the political, economic and diplomatic pressures from outside the country. And as a result, they will have to make terrible decisions that are hard to swallow at times. Simply put, it is the nature of the prevailing “realpolitik” in the world today.

Somalia is a weak country that does not have the technological know-how, the legal instruments, the financial capital needed and the political expertise to manage its resources.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud awarded a huge and lucrative contract to Soma Oil and Gas (changed name to Coastline) giving it monopolistic powers to manage solely the entire Somali petroleum industries. It is important to note that Soma Oil and Gas was created only a few weeks before the signing of the contract. At the time, Soma Oil and Gas did not even have a proper physical address, almost no funds in their account, and no experience in Somalia or the oil sector. They had only three people as employees on paper.

In hindsight, awarding such a huge contract with no competition to Soma Oil and Gas was insane, to say the least. However, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and his cabinet would strongly argue that the decision they made was the best they could do for Somalia under the prevailing political, economic and security conditions at the time.

The new Petroleum Law is a reasonable baseline that can be improved once a political agreement with federal member states is achieved by the current regime or by a future government after the election in 2020. The biggest problem with this law is that it gives lots of powers to the ministry of petroleum. And that needs to be addressed immediately.

In a democratic system, laws have to reflect the political will of the people. The Petroleum Law does not do that sufficiently. And that’s why it must be amended in due time.

The argument that the Petroleum Law will give Farmaajo and his corrupt government the legal cover they need to continue auctioning Somali petroleum resources is valid and it does have political currency.

However, the question is what is the alternative?

We cannot let the Somali people continue to die with hunger, starvation and endless suffering while we are squabbling over myopic political issues. An agenda for economic development must be sought. The exploitation of Somalia’s petroleum resources is the most important component of any strategic economic development plan.

The fear of climate change is pushing the world to move away from the use of hydrocarbons and the current economic and political trends are to develop alternative and sustainable energy resources that have a less negative impact on the environment. This means that in less than half a century into the future, petroleum will be less important as an energy source. And Somalia’s natural resources could potentially be wasted while the country is in a dire economic and political crisis.

SOOMAALIYA HA NOOLAATO!