I’ll briefly preface my DraftKings plays by saying, I think this is the sort of week where you really need to narratively decide or try to imagine how you think this tournament plays out.

With rain, wind, and thunderstorms forecasted for much of the week in Ponte Vedra, Florida and at TPC Sawgrass (particularly on the weekend), I feel a need to decide if my DraftKings lineups are going to focus on “bad weather grinders,” golfers who are likely to do well if the winning score is in the single digits -OR- “target practice assassins”, golfers who might thrive on a damp softened course where scores actually go quite low.

In reality, as someone who will make several lineups, I’ll likely try to correlate each lineup with how I think this event goes and account for a few different types of outcomes…

That said though, this feels like one of the most random and unpredictable weeks of DFS golf I can remember. There could be hours upon hours of weather delays. There could even be entire days that ultimately get wiped out.

So much of this will be unquantifiable, but in the back of my mind I’m most interested in golfers who I believe can handle all of the unpredictably — all of the curveballs the weather might throw their way and not get flustered by it.

At this moment I believe that the golfers who adapt well to the day-to-day conditions this week will find a way to fire some low scores on what I expect to be a pretty soft course. I’m currently anticipating a winner score in the -13 to -17 range.

10K+ Range

Jon Rahm ($11,100)

I’m going to the #1 ranked golfer in the world, who I know for certain can play well in any conditions, at any course in the world.

Jon Rahm’s ball-striking continues to be out of this world good. Even while on this streak of poor short game play, Rahm basically leads the field every week in the ball-striking stats (off-the-tee & approach).

If Rahm’s short game returns anywhere close to his baseline ability, he might win THE PLAYERS this week by 5 shots. That’s how unbelievable the rest of his game has been lately.

On top of that, Rahm’s produced a T9 and T12 finish at TPC Sawgrass in the two years that the event’s been played in March — something I’m focusing on more so than the long-term history of THE PLAYERS.

It appears like many people will hop off the Rahm-train this week in favor of playing Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa on DraftKings, but I’ll happily roster a lower owned Rahm and just hope he putts better.

9K+ Range

Cameron Smith ($9,400)

I wish Cam Smith was priced maybe five-or-six hundred dollars cheaper, but I supposed that will likely keep his ownership down on DraftKings.

On paper I think Cam Smith’s game is a little scary for TPC Sawgrass. It’s just so easy to envision how things go wrong for him — he’s wayward off-the-tee, he’s playing too aggressively going at pins and ending up in tricky spots.

But I went back and looked at how Smith faired here last year (T17), I realized that he did drive his golf ball poorly for 3 of 4 days. 21% driving accuracy in round 1, and 42% driving accuracy in rounds 3 and 4. Despite this , Smith still finished just one stroke outside of the top-10.

In round 3 last year though, Smith hit 9/14 fairways (64%!) which led to him making 7 birdies and 1 eagle…

It’s that type of round-by-round upside that gets me extremely excited to play Cam Smith this week. I think he may even be a better, more confident golfer than he was a year ago too— a guy who just seems to gets into contention, and even win, more often now.

Potential weather issues give me some confidence in Smith as well — living in Florida, while also growing up in Australia, it seems like Smith is well-suited to handle both intense winds and rain.

8K+ Range

Will Zalatoris ($8,900)

The $8,000+ range on DraftKings isn’t my favorite this week.

I think there’s just so much win equity at the very top of the board. Then there’s that next tier in the $9,000s — full of guys who routinely contend in events.

And then below 8K, in the $7,000 range, there’s just so much great value…a pool of golfers who aren’t wholly different from the golfers in the $8,000s.

All that said, If I’m prioritizing one guy to roster in the 8K+ Range, it’s Will Zalatoris.

Zalatoris just always seem to show up in these premier ball-striking events. A place where Justin Thomas won just last year, it’s so easy to imagine Zalatoris replicating the same formula — if not this year, then at some point in his career it feels like Zalatoris could become a Players champion.

Willy Z posted a T21 finish at THE PLAYERS in his rookie season a year ago. He comes in with good form in 2022, though perhaps with some scorned DraftKings owners after most recently finishing just T38 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week and T26 at Genesis.

Perhaps those results — along with Daniel Berger being priced $100 cheaper — will keep Zalatoris’ ownership down and thus make him a strong GPP option.

The concern will always be the putting for Zalatoris, but it might be worth mentioning that he putted to exactly field average at TPC Sawgrass in 2021. A repeat of that performance on these greens likely puts him firmly in contention this week…

7K+ Range

Sam Burns ($7,900)

After three missed cuts in a row, Sam Burns finished T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He turned it around off-the-tee after two abysmal performances at Genesis and Waste Management, and then also gained 3.74 strokes on approach and nearly 6 strokes putting.

This was the formula for Burns throughout 2021 when he contended often and statistically was one of the best golfers in the world.

It seems like people aren’t necessarily ready to buy-in to Burns being “back” to his 2021 form just yet, especially when there are guys like Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in the surrounding area who come in with clear amazing form and course history.

But for large field GPPs I’m almost certainly willing to take shots on Burns and just hope that I’m earlier on him playing great again than most…

Burns carries only a two-round sample size at TPC Sawgrass, in which he missed the cut in 2021 by an absolute mile. That said, Burns has played well at other Pete Dye designed courses so far in his career — T13 at Travelers last year, T4 at the Zurich Classic (also last year), and a T6 at The American Express in 2020.

A few other potentially lower owned 7K plays I like: Abe Ancer ($7,600), Jason Kokrak ($7,300), Tom Hoge ($7,000).

6K+ Range

Jhonattan Vegas ($6,800)

Johnny Vegas has gained strokes ball-striking in every measured event this season. The results aren’t incredible due to some lackluster short game performances, but he did finish T8 at the Saudi International event not long ago.

Vegas finished T3 at the 2019 Players Championship, demonstrating that he does have some good vibes at TPC Sawgrass — the March edition specifically…

Pencil me in for a Vegas top-20 finish this week and I’d be thrilled at $6,800 to have him round out my DraftKings lineups.

Given how strong and value heavy the 7K range is for THE PLAYERS, I’m not itching to dip down into the $6,000+ range this week.

Though I must admit that, along with Vegas, there are a lot of intriguing options and notable names that could play well and perhaps even win if things get nuts at Sawgrass…

Mito Periera ($6,700) interests me immensely, especially if he will be < 3% owned. He’s a long-shot guy who I could even see winning this event, or coming close and being priced in the $8,000s next year.

Aaron Wise ($6,600), who I talked up last week, ultimately came through with a nice finish at API and was near the very top of the field in ball-striking. If you think he can continue that play and just putt a little bit better, then he will be an outstanding play this week. Top-10 upside for sure.

5 DraftKings Plays I Love for THE PLAYERS Championship was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Going to try something new for Tuesdays by delivering a weekly Top 10 ranking of the best golfers coming into each event.

I’m factoring in a combination of form leading in/recent results, course history, and how the golfers rated out in my stat model for the week.

#10 — Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings: $9,600 Odds to win: +2500)

Hideki Matsuyama has had as good a start to golf in 2022 as anyone in this field (minus Scottie Scheffler perhaps). He won the Sony Open back in January, finished tied 8th at Waste Management, and hasn’t missed a single cut.

As will be pointed out everywhere this week, Matsuyama led after round one of the 2020 Players Championship, before the event was stopped due to the global pandemic.

The missed cut here last year was likely an abnormality, as Matsuyama also finished tied 8th at this event in 2019.

I’m very excited about Matsuyama at THE PLAYERS this week — coming to a course he generally plays well at and in great form. For DraftKings purposes especially, I feel confident that Hideki will grind from start to finish regardless of whether he’s in contention or not.

#9 — Patrick Cantlay (DraftKings: $9,900 Odds to win: +2000)

I’m not all that excited about Patrick Cantlay this week at THE PLAYERS, but it’s really hard to ignore how incredibly well he’s played over the past year — showing up to contend almost every week on tour. (And obviously winning last year’s FedEx Cup / Tour Championship.)

That said, for whatever Cantlay’s bugaboo seems to be contending at these major-like events. He’s missed the cut in back-to-back years at TPC Sawgrass, disappointingly so as one of the favorites coming into this event last year.

Still, Cantlay shouldn’t be overlooked this week because he clearly has the complete game to contend and win at any course, at any time.

#8— Viktor Hovland (DraftKings: $10,100 Odds to win: +2000)

I’m admittedly a little bit luke-warm on Viktor Hovland this week.

Even more so than the winner of the previous week, I think the hard-luck runner-up can have an incredibly hard time bouncing back right away…

In his post final round interview at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Hovland expressed that he felt like he should have won the event. After just a brutal, grueling week of golf at Bay Hill, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Hovland had a down week (for his standards).

I’m also just a little bit afraid that Hovland might try to overpower TPC Sawgrass and use aggression to get around the course, as we saw often times at Bay Hill last week. I think that could cause him to run into some trouble.

Still, Hovland is a world class golfer who just finished runner-up and tied 4th in back-to-back events. Hard to not rank him accordingly.

#7 — Brooks Koepka (DraftKings: $8,600 Odds to win: +4000)

Brooks Koepka at a major-like event with one of the best fields and biggest prize purses we’ll see all year? Sign me up!

Often when Brooks comes into major events it seems almost impossible that he could play so well on the back of poor recent form and finishes. But that’s not even the case here — Brooks Koepka played awesome at both Waste Management and the Honda Classic in February.

Koepka looks as healthy as he has in any of the past few seasons, is playing great, has produced solid results at TPC Sawgrass, and is a homegrown Florida guy.

This feels like a no-brainer.

#6 — Rory McIlroy (DraftKings: $10,800 Odds to win: +1600)

Rory McIlroy is a very easy guy to overlook this week, given how poorly he finished at API over the past weekend.

But McIlroy won this event in 2019, the first year they moved THE PLAYERS to March. He’s been in quite good form so far this year, and in my estimation will enjoy the softer setup at TPC Sawgrass than he did at Bay Hill on the weekend.

Don’t sleep on Rory after just two ho-hum rounds.

#5 — Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings: $9,200 Odds to win: +2000)

I said it last week and I’ll say it again, it’s just so hard to imagine Scottie Scheffler not playing well in this spot. His game is clearly in unbelievable form, with two wins in the last three weeks.

I understand the volatility that TPC Sawgrass offers, but I believe Scheffler can continue his outstanding run of golf. He’s so clearly the previous week’s winner that we overlook for betting and daily fantasy lineups, and then we look up and he’s first round leader or something.

#4— Xander Schauffele (DraftKings: $9,700 Odds to win: +2500)

I’m not sure I even want to put this out into the airwaves, but this is the quietest, least amount of buzz I’ve heard around Xander Schauffele coming into a huge event like THE PLAYERS in years.

The two missed cuts in his last two trips to TPC Sawgrass are concerning for sure, but I’m willing to overlook that for an elite golfer like Schauffele — who also finished runner-up here in 2018.

Xander’s recent form — particularly the ball-striking numbers — is excellent, with a tied 13th at Genesis and tied 3rd at Waste Management.

He typically shows up for big events, and so I really think Xander Schauffele gets in the mix this week. Closing the door on the outright win might be another conversation…

#3 — Jon Rahm (DraftKings: $11,100 Odds to win: +1000)

The question for Jon Rahm this week is whether or not he can fix his short game. Both the around-the-green and putting has been abysmal for Rahm over the past few weeks.

Even with his short game woes, Rahm has still managed to finish T17, T21, T10, and T3 over his last four starts.

For someone who is historically an excellent short game player, if something clicks for Rahm before Thursday then he will probably win (if not, then come very close).

Will it? I’m not sure. The eye test — the yippy one foot putt miss is rough stuff.

#2 — Collin Morikawa (DraftKings: $10,700; Odds to win: +1400)

The stars just feel like they’re aligning for Collin Morikawa this week. Everything about TPC Sawgrass sets up perfectly for his game — positioning yourself accurately off the tee and hitting your irons well.

Morikawa finished tied 2nd in his last start at Genesis, where it honestly felt like he played his B-game and still had a shot to steal the win at the end.

He holds just a T41 finish under his belt from last year’s Players Championship, but if Morikawa just putts to field average the elite ball striker will almost certainly be deep in contention.

#1 — Justin Thomas (DraftKings: $10,400; Odds to win: +1000)

The defending champ arrives at TPC Sawgrass in tip-top form, coming in off a 6th place finish at Genesis and a tied 8th place finish at Waste Management in February.

As we witnessed over the weekend last year, TPC Sawgrass is a place where Justin Thomas can just absolutely light it up from tee-to-green. You don’t have to be a tremendous putter to succeed here, you just need to not hemorrhage strokes on the green…which is what JT did in 2021.

Thomas is peaking at just the right moment coming in this week, which to me makes him the guy to beat.

Power Rankings for THE PLAYERS Championship 2022 was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Week three of the Florida swing heads to the TPC Sawgrass — essentially the headquarters for the PGA Tour in Ponte Verde Beach — for THE PLAYERS Championship.

This is an event the needs little introduction. It’s risen considerably in status over year, to the point where some consider this event golf’s 5th major.

It’s the flagship event for the PGA Tour, and they’ve continued to demonstrate that monetarily — increasing the prize purse from 15 million to 20 million, with an astounding 3.6 million dollars going to the winner.

The venue is one of the most well manicured and maintained on tour, the crowds are always electric, and the golf features all-around excellence.

The Field

With such a massive prize purse at stake, it’s unsurprising that THE PLAYERS has drawn 47 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world, with Bryson DeChambeau and Harris English missing only due to injury, and Phil Mickelson missing due to…reasons!

Overall it’s a massive 144 player field that features the very best.

Justin Thomas arrives as the defending champion. He stormed up the leaderboard over the weekend last year, after just barely making the cut, firing rounds of 64 and 68 with some of the best approach and iron play I can remember in recent time.

Somewhat surprisingly, Thomas hasn’t won an event since last year’s players championship. He went through a bit of a slump (for his standards), but Thomas has rounded into form of late and it wouldn’t be a shock at all for him to go back-to-back here.

In a similar player mold as Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa arrives as one of the clear favorites this week.

Morikawa’s game mirrors Thomas’ in a lot ways, particularly the elite iron and wedge play. Morikawa is much more accurate off-the-tee than JT, a skillset that has proven crucial at TPC Sawgrass so as to avoid having to play out of the thick bermuda rough.

There will be a ton of competition this week at THE PLAYERS though…and as we’ve seen in the past, even long-shots can find victory here. See: Si Woo Kim (100/1 odds winner in 2017).

The Course

The beautifully manicured Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass was designed by Pete Dye, featuring a ton of hazards — in fact, there are water hazards on 17/18 holes.

Pete Dye courses typically require golfers to think through the round and play positional golf. You want to be in the right spots off-the-tee, as it’s not so much about distance. Then you want to hit shots into the correct parts or quadrants of green — again, making iron and wedge play valuable.

To further drive home the point that distance doesn’t matter here, TPC Saw Grass measures just 7,189 yards as a Par 72. The Par-5s are all reachable and in many ways essential to score on to succeed this week.

In typical Pete Dye fashion, the greens have shaved run offs that make short game play important as well.

Overall, golfers really need their game to be in complete, well-rounded form in order to succeed at TPC Sawgrass.

Due in part to the many hazards, TPC Sawgrass has produced variable and highly volatile results for golfers. Literally anyone could miss the cut this week — last year, Rory McIlroy (a former winner here) missed the cut by a mile.

It’s also worth noting that THE PLAYERS moved from May to March back in 2019, making course history even more shaky. For a look at how guys have performed at the March version of this event, focus on 2019, 2020 (only one round though), and 2021 results.

Lastly, TPC Sawgrass is probably most well known for the par-3 17th and its island green…but don’t forget about hole 18. It’s one of the absolute best, most intimidating final holes out there.

Final Thoughts

Like any Florida event, THE PLAYERS can very easily make your bets or DraftKings lineups look silly.

It only takes one round where a golfer you bet on or rostered is just a little bit off and hits one or two shots into the water. There are just so many holes at TPC Sawgrass where big numbers can be made, causing rounds to go off the rails quickly and players to eject out of nowhere.

Don’t be discouraged by this volatility.

THE PLAYERS is still a tremendously entertaining event, played at a course that I find to be enjoyable to watch on TV…

Not to mention the coverage all week is some of the best that we get as golf fans all year, featuring one of the best fields.

Thanks for reading and happy GOLF.

A (Brief) Preview of THE PLAYERS Championship 2022 was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

After a weekend of absolute carnage at Bay Hill, Scottie Scheffler emerged as the last golfer standing on Sunday — donning the red cardigan and raising the Arnold Palmer Invitational trophy.

In doing so, Scheffler moved up to #5 in the official world golf rankings.

1. Scheffler Might Be Elite

As some suggested after Scottie won at Waste Management three weeks ago, getting that first PGA Tour win off his shoulders could just open up the flood gates, allowing him to become a consistent winner on tour…

That seems indeed to be the case here.

Scheffler often played well enough to win on the PGA Tour prior to the last few weeks, but finally we are starting to see him take care of business on Sundays.

Now with these two recent wins under his belt — both very impressive and against very tough fields by the way — Scheffler appears to have elevated his status in professional golf.

I’ve always recognized and respected Scheffler’s talent — particularly when he out-dueled Jon Rahm in singles at the 2021 Ryder Cup — but not until today had I been forced to truly consider whether Scheffler is an elite talent in the game of golf.

He’s not won a major yet in his young career, but at this moment in time I believe Scheffler belongs in any conversation pertaining the world’s best golfers. His game just seems to be showing up at every type of course right now…so maybe the major win isn’t too far off.

2. Was Bay Hill Hard for the Sake of Being Hard?

After his final round, Rory McIlroy made some comments about the way Bay Hill set up this week for golfers.

Specifically, he suggested that good shots weren’t necessarily being rewarded and that mediocre shots were getting lucky at times.

Scheffler won at -5 this week, which is almost certainly one of the lowest winning scores we’ll see all year on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill was truly a brute, playing +3.48 strokes over par on Sunday alone and watching some professional golfers shoots scores in the 80s.

I love watching these type of golf events where the course plays tough and demands guys to be on their A-game, while simultaneously punishing mediocre play.

In general, it’s better than the typical birdie fests where golfers can easily hit every approach inside 25 feet and on the green. Whoever hits their wedges well and makes the most putts wins.

Watching a course like Bay Hill, I can almost feel the golfers’ exhaustion. After spending a Saturday or Sunday watching these guys struggle, I almost feel like I need a nap to recoup. And that’s fun.

But I think I do side with Rory here to a certain degree. When really good golf shots get punished, when greens can’t hold any shots, I get a bit less joy from watching.

Golfers may feel like it turns into a short game contest, and in fact, I as a viewer start to feel like I’m watching a short game and scrambling contest.

I still thought API was an extremely exciting event to watch throughout the weekend, but at the same time I recognize that these courses are walking a fine line between difficult and just downright punishing.

McIlroy’s comments about the setup alluded to the fact that players might skip out on this event in future years if they know just how brutal Bay Hill will play. So, it’s just something to keep an eye out for come this time next year.

2 Quick Takeaways from the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

10K+ Range

Viktor Hovland ($10,800)

Like each of the golfers in the $10,000 and up range this week, Viktor Hovland will be moderately owned — though certainly not to the level of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

When the cards get flipped over Thursday, I wouldn’t even be shocked if as much as a true majority of DraftKings lineups start with one of McIlroy or Rahm…

That said, Hovland is always someone I look to at a course like Bay Hill — a spot where distance and clubhead speed seems to be advantageous. Because of that, Hovland should have an easier time reaching the green on some of these longer holes, and I expect him to really score well on the four Par-5s.

As I mentioned in my power rankings yesterday, I view Hovland as the next generation’s Rory McIlroy. Their games are very similar to me, and so I tend to project Hovland to play well at places where McIlroy has played well at in his career.

API is clearly one of those smash spots for McIlroy. While it’s not been the same for Hovland — 49th, 42nd, and 40th in this three trips to Bay Hill — I do expect that to turn around eventually…

Why not this week?

On top of everything, Hovland is an unbelievable birdie maker. He showcased that at Genesis two weeks ago when he came back from a slow round 1 to eventually finish 4th.

I’ll surely play Rahm and Rory this week, but I’ll also mix in Viktor Hovland to some of my DK lineups.

9K+ Range

Marc Leishman ($9,100)

Marc Leishman coming in as potentially the least owned in the $9,000 and up range seems almost insane to me.

His course history goes toe-to-toe with pretty much anyone in this price range, as Leishman won here in 2017, finished runner-up in 2020, and 7th in 2018.

Leishman rolls into this week’s event in what I can only claim as “quietly immaculate form,” about as consistent as we’ve seen Leishman play in a few years. He’s gained strokes ball-striking in 6 consecutive events dating back to the fall swing.

We’re really just waiting for Leishman’s typically very good putter and short game to pop off one of these weeks — he’s done it before at Bay Hill, gaining over 8 strokes putting when he won in 2017, and over 6 strokes putting when he finished runner-up.

Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitpatrick — who expect to be the chalk plays of the 9k+ range— are certainly excellent DraftKings picks for API, but for a leverage opportunity I’m going to love jamming in Marc Leishman this week.

Aussie, aussie, aussie?

8K+ Range

Jason Kokrak($8,400)

Sam Burns ($8,800) is probably the contrarian GPP golfer that wins you all the money this week. Similar to Viktor Hovland, this is just a track that on paper suits Burns’ game so well. Burns comes in with three pretty ugly missed cuts in a row though (and not great course history), so I’m not sure if I’ll go there or not yet…

I will go to Jason Kokrak for sure though.

Another horses for courses type guy, who seemingly has found comfort at Bay Hill over the years. Most recently he’s finished T8, T18, and T10 (in the past three years), with a 6th and 4th place finish also on his resumé.

Kokrak has steadily gained strokes ball-striking at Bay Hill — often a LOT of strokes ball-striking — thanks to his long ball off-the-tee and very good long iron play. He’s finished well even with a number of poor putting performances at API, but now arrives as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.

If his typical ball-striking matches up with the new-found hot putting, it could be a huge week for Kokrak.

I certainly won’t begrudge anyone for leaning on a chalkier Keith Mitchell ($8,100) or Paul Casey ($8,300) this week. I’ll likely play both guys a little bit, as Mitchell and Casey both just feel about a thousand dollars underpriced on DraftKings and therefore present nice value…

7K+ Range

Ian Poulter ($7,200)

I don’t usually ride this hard for course history guys, but it’s just difficult for me to ignore Ian Poulter’s track record at API…

Since 2008, Poulter has missed the cut just once here (in 13 appearances). He’s finished T32 or better 8 times, including a 3rd place finish a decade ago.

Of course the $7,000 and up range on DK is full of guys with higher upside than Poulter — Mav McNealy, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Luke List, Matt Wolff, just to name a few — golfers who I will undoubtedly sprinkle into my lineups too.

But at $7,200 and not much ownership, I think Poulter just provides such a nice stability this week. You don’t need him to win.

As potentially a last guy into a lineup, I think you’d be pretty happy with a T25 or T20 finish out of Poulter here. Let the more volatile, but higher upside guys do the heavy lifting elsewhere in your DK lineup.

For a bit more context, I don’t think I’d blindly play Poulter if he was coming to Bay Hill with poor form. But he’s seemingly played well in 2022. A T6 finish in Abu Dhabi at the end of January, and a T30 finish just last week at another Florida course — in which Poulter gained ~2.5 strokes on approach and ~2.5 strokes with the putter.

6K+ Range

Aaron Wise ($6,900)

I’m ready to get hurt again.

I’ve played Aaron Wise nearly every week he’s played in 2022, which has resulted in a disappointing missed cut in 3 out of 4 events (and a T67 at Genesis, the one cut he’s made). It’s of course been very, very painful for me.

I still just don’t think we’re THAT far removed from the guy who was gaining loads of strokes on the field throughout the late summer and fall swing.

Last week at Honda the off-the-tee numbers for Wise were good, gaining nearly 2 strokes in two rounds. The week before that at Genesis, Wise gained nearly 3 strokes on approach play…

So Wise is playing a bit of wack-a-mole with his golf game at the moment.

I don’t truly “love” any picks in the $6,000+ range this week on DraftKings. So in a place that’s so devoid of appealing options, I think I’m willing to hope and pray that Wise puts it all together starting this week.

It’s a bit of a shot in the dark, but we know from the Fall swing that Wise has legitimate upside and can make a ton of birdies, which would go a long way for your DK lineup.

Other decent options I’m considering in the $6,000 and up range: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Sam Ryder ($6,700), Cam Davis ($6,600).

No golfer priced this down this low will be a true core piece of my lineups at API.

Anyway, thanks for reading and happy GOLF.

5 DraftKings Plays I Love for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Going to try something new for Tuesdays by delivering a weekly Top 10 ranking of the best golfers coming into each event.

I’m factoring in a combination of form leading in/recent results, course history, and how the golfers rated out in my stat model for the week.

Honorable Mention:

Cameron Young (DraftKings: $7,500; Odds to Win: +8000)

This PGA Tour rookie is really starting to make a name for himself, as Cameron Young finds himself on a tremendous three week stretch right now — 16th at the Honda Classic, Runner-Up at Genesis, and 26th at Waste Management (also a 20th place finish at Torrey Pines a few weeks before that).

The guy just continues to prove himself as a legitimate player on tour — an incredibly consistent ball-striker who can also make putts.

Young has never played at Bay Hill, but he’s already shown a propensity to succeed at long and difficult courses. The question really becomes how much does Cameron Young have left in the tank as he enters his fourth consecutive week of golf on tour. Don’t sleep on this guy.

#10 — Max Homa (DraftKings: $8,700; Odds to win: +4500)

Max Homa wasn’t really on my radar until he appeared 7th in my stat model for this week…

I quickly realized that Homa has simply been playing awesome golf in 2022, headlined by a T10 at Genesis and T14 at Waste Management.

Homa’s course history at Bay Hill is solid, boasting a 10th place finish last year and a 24th the year before.

No reason to overthink it: Homa is in great form and seemingly loves showing up at tough courses.

#9 — Sungjae Im (DraftKings: $9,900; Odds to win: +2200)

We must forgive and forget with Sungjae Im after missing the cut as the betting favorite last week at Honda. Chalk it up to a volatile, unpredictable event that always features some surprising results.

Sungjae’s game just never feels like it’s too far off, and didn’t appear far off based on my eye test from the featured group coverage I watched last week.

Now Sungjae comes to a place where he’s finished 21st, 3rd, and 3rd. Just feels like such a clear bounce back spot for him.

#8 — Matt Fitzpatrick (DraftKings: $9,200; Odds to win: +2000)

Matt Fitzpatrick is another guy who has just quietly been playing great golf in 2022–10th at Waste Management and 6th at Pebble Beach.

He was set to be a trendy value pick at Genesis before being forced to withdraw due to an illness. Hopefully he’s doing well…

After two weeks off, Fitzpatrick comes to a place where he has pretty phenomenal course history. In six trips to Bay Hill, Fitzpatrick has missed the cut twice but finished T13 or better in the other four times.

#7 — Marc Leishman (DraftKings: $9,100; Odds to Win: +2800)

Marc Leishman is truly one of my favorites on the board this week. When he’s been in form — which he most definitely is currently — Leishman’s produced some outstanding results at API, including a win, a runner-up finish, a 3rd place finish, and a 7th place finish.

#6 — Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings: $10,300; Odds to Win: +2500)

Hideki Matsuyama has never finished better than T18 at API, but he’s also never missed the cut in six trips and generally strikes the ball beautifully here.

He’s struggled mightily on the greens at Bay Hill in his career, but Matsuyama’s putter has shown a lot of life this season on the PGA Tour.

Perhaps this is the year Matsuyama can finally marry the ball striking with the putting at API and churn out a top finish.

#5 — Will Zalatoris (DraftKings: $9,400; Odds to Win: +2500)

Will Zalatoris finished T10 at API in his first appearance at the event last year. This is just simply the sport for Zalatoris to thrive — essentially a ball-strikers paradise, where the scorers shouldn’t go too low and so he doesn’t need to putt out of his mind to contend.

As we saw at Torrey Pines for Zalatoris, quality two putts for Par can (very nearly) get the job done.

Zalatoris’ floor feels like a top 20 finish this week, with legitimate top 5 and contention upside.

#4 — Viktor Hovland (DraftKings: $10,800; Odds to Win: +1800)

For whatever reason, Viktor Hovland has “struggled” (with this term being relative to how great a golfer Hovland is) at Bay Hill — never finishing better than T40 in three trips.

That said, Hovland comes in with great form after a 4th place finish at Genesis two weeks ago, and Bay Hill is a course that in theory sets up incredibly well for his game.

I believe Hovland is the next generation Rory McIlroy, and this is a course where McIlroy dominates. With that in mind, I fully expect Hovland to produce some great results at API in his career— probably starting this year.

#3 — Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings: $10,600; Odds to Win: +1600)

Scottie Scheffler has been playing as well as anyone of late. He notched his first career win a few weeks ago at the Waste Management, and then followed it up with an impressive T7 the next week at Genesis.

For a guy whose game already appeared to travel well, Scheffler comes to Bay Hill this week in good form and with a ton of confidence.

It’s just so hard to imagine Scottie not playing well right now.

#2 — Jon Rahm (DraftKings: $11,400; Odds to Win: +750)

Interestingly enough, Jon Rahm has never played the Arnold Palmer Invitational before. Does it matter? Probably not — Rahm plays great golf anywhere and everywhere.

Even while bleeding strokes away with the putter, Rahm still finished T21 at Genesis and T10 at Waste Management. Is Rahm’s putter truly a problem at the moment? I don’t think so. At least eye test wise it hasn’t looked like a complete disaster or anything to me.

So if his putter is just ok at Bay Hill — which I assume it is — there’s a good chance Rahm wins or comes very close this week.

#1 — Rory McIlroy (DraftKings: $11,100; Odds to Win: +1000)

Rory McIlroy’s history at Bay Hill is immaculate, with only one finish outside the top 10 in six trips (that being 11th place), which helps give him the slight nod over Rahm.

I think a lot of people have wanted vintage Rory back for a while now — the world class golfer who just contends week after week — and it feels like we’re incredibly close to that.

Rahm is the betting favorite, but it really feels to me like McIlroy is the most likely to win.

Power Rankings for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Week two of the Florida swing heads to the Bay Hill Club & Lodge, just outside Orlando, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

With “invitational” designation, this week’s field strength is a pretty big step up compared to last week’s Honda Classic. At the same time, it’s not quite as good as the field we saw two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational, perhaps a result of API preceding the PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP.

The Field

Five of the top ten players in the world are set to compete at API, including Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Last year’s champion Bryson DeChambeau, who last played (and missed the cut) at the Farmer’s Insurance Open in January, will also tee it up this week in Orlando.

DeChambeau has been dealing with back and wrist injuries since then, withdrawing from the Saudi International event as a result.

This seems to be reflected in DeChambeau’s early odds to win. DraftKings Sportsbook opened with 28/1 odds for DeChambeau to go back-to-back at Bay Hill. A pretty shockingly high number for the defending champ, who I expected would come in with odds half that…

I guess Vegas is telling us that Bryson’s injury concerns are very real.

The Course

Bay Hill stands at just under 7,500 yards, making it one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. Narrow fairways on certain holes, along with some of the thickest rough on tour, makes the course play even longer.

Bay Hill is arguably a tougher course than PGA National, though given Bay Hill plays with two more strokes to par as a Par-72 (thanks to four Par-5s), the scores tend to get just a bit lower.

The Par-5s are where players absolutely need to make their hay this week — all reachable in two shots for the longer hitting golfers.

The Par-3s all play over 200 yards at Bay Hill, which averages out to the longest on tour. The 450–500 yard Par-4s often require longer iron approaches into the greens as well.

Bryson DeChambeau has found a lot of success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational by aggressively using his length to overpower the course. But length is by no means a prerequisite for success at Bay Hill.

Previous winners like Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman, and Francesco Molinari are by no means long hitters.

Hatton is an accurate driver and awesome long iron player. Leishman boasts a world class short game, and Molinari (when in form) is generally well-rounded and good at playing positional golf.

Final Thoughts

Bay Hill is not my favorite course on the schedule, but I appreciate the difficult test of golf it’s offered in recent years.

I believe all PGA Tour events should strive to culminate in an exciting final stretch of holes that requires golfers to hit great shots, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational certainly provides that experience.

The par-5 16th gives golfers a tremendous opportunity to score, though a perfectly straight drive off-the-tee is hugely important with water in front of the green there.

Then golfers move to the 200+ yard par-3 17th, which is surrounded by bunkers and just becomes such a difficult green to hit come Sunday when the course is baked out entirely.

Golfers finish off with the toughest hole on the course, the par-4 18th — a hole you need to play absolutely perfect just to make Par. An errant tee shot makes it just about impossible to hit the green, and even a great tee shot still requires an excellent approach to dodge water to the right and bunkers on the left to land safety greenside.

It can be easy to look past API with the PLAYERS on the horizon for next week.

But I’m thoroughly excited to hear from Bryson DeChambeau early in week…for the first time since the Saudi League rumors and his association with it really heated up. While Phil Mickelson has continued to get lambasted over his comments, DeChambeau has basically stayed out of the spotlight and not answered any questions about it.

Though once we get past that, the golf at Bay Hill from Thursday through Sunday should be excellent. I can’t wait to see who comes out on top.

Thanks for reading and happy golf.

A (Brief) Preview of The 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Shortly ago, Sepp Straka claimed his first PGA Tour victory at the 2022 Honda Classic, just edging out Ireland’s Shane Lowry by a single stroke.

Dark ominous clouds moved over PGA National as the final two groups finished the Bear Trap (holes 15–17) and headed to the final hole. Lowry and Straka tied at the top, Daniel Berger just one shot back.

Even with rain coming down sideways, Straka persevered to hit an excellent approach into the par-5 18th, setting up an eagle putt from 48 feet that came up inches short of the cup.

A tap in birdie would be just good enough for Straka though, as Lowry in the final group could only make par on 18 after an errant tee shot.

With the win, Straka becomes the first golfer from Austria to claim victory on the PGA Tour.

2. No Lead is Safe at PGA National

Playing alongside Lowry in the final group, Daniel Berger needed to make eagle at 18 to get into a playoff with Straka. With this in mind, Berger took an aggressive approach to try and stuff something close to the pin, but just missed the green as his ball cut too far and went into the water.

Berger entered Sunday five shots clear of Straka and Lowry — a sizeable lead that leads to victory about 75% of the time on the PGA Tour.

Berger squandered his lead early on in the day, making double bogey at the par-5 3rd — one of the easier holes on the course, making the double bogey even more disastrous.

He then made bogey at the difficult 5th and 6th holes. Berger battled all day, but simply did not have his best stuff, particularly with the putter.

While leads of this size typically hold up in the final round, it’s unsurprising for those shots to evaporate quickly at a place like PGA National.

There’s water everywhere, the greens played firm and fast all week, and it’s just easy to get out of position and make big numbers.

This sentiment is probably fairly obvious for astute and knowledgeable PGA viewers, but it’s just something to keep in mind for the Honda Classic next year. Your DraftKings lineups or betting tickets may never truly be dead (or safe depending on how you look at it). There may also be ample opportunities for live betting golfers like Straka who might seem out of it, but could just get hot down the stretch and win.

2. The Randomness Factor

Depending on where you look, Sepp Straka came into the week with 140/1 odds to win the Honda Classic.

He’s a decent enough player with some solid pedigree coming out of the University of Georgia golf program (he also represented Austria at last year’s olympics), but as shown on the telecast Straka’s ball striking numbers this season were not particularly good — mostly attributed to a poor fall swing, in which he made just 3/8 cuts and had his best finish as a T33.

That said, Straka’s ball striking was excellent all week at PGA National — 2nd in the final round alone, just behind Shane Lowry.

We saw a similar theme with 3rd place finisher Kurt Kitayama this week, who had missed his previous 5 cuts on the PGA Tour prior to this week.

Meanwhile the betting favorite and previous winner of the event Sungjae Im ended up missing the cut. Golf is strange sometimes, and the Honda Classic is a good example of this weird — but also kind of awesome — variance in results.

All that said, the real takeaway is not to let a week like this get you down from a DFS or betting perspective. This may truly be the Twilight Zone of PGA events. S*it happens.

3. The Florida Swing is Going to be Great

Something the Florida events have in common is that nervous feeling like one bad swing can cause a lead to come crumbling down at any moment.

With all of firm and fast greens that get baked out as the week goes on, water lurking everywhere, and the unpredictable weather as we saw in the final round of Honda, Florida golf on the PGA Tour is truly chaotic and challenging.

This altogether makes for some of the most exciting, competitive events on the schedule. Good news is that we’re just getting started…

Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill next week. Happy GOLF.

3 Takeaways from the 2022 Honda Classic was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

This week’s Honda Classic certainly feels like an exhale after all the excitement in Phoenix and Los Angeles the past two weeks. Not to mention Phil Mickelson’s damning comments to Alan Shipnuck about the brewing Saudi Golf League, which seems to have caused a screeching halt to those talks.

So it’s going to be difficult for Honda to compete with anything that’s happened in the professional golf world in recent days and weeks, but what the heck let’s try and make it relevant!

The PGA Tour heads to the east coast for the first time in 2022 for the Florida swing — 4 consecutive tournaments taking place in the sunshine state: Honda Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS Championship, and Valspar Championship.

Part of what makes this stretch of golf great is that these events are held at venues that generally play tough. Depending on how much it rains, these courses can play firm and fast. Weather conditions can get windy, blustery even, making scoring more difficult as well.

A lot of fans enjoy watching hard golf because it seemingly allows the best players to really separate themselves at these events.

As we’ll see at Honda this week, if a guy’s game is even slightly off then he could lose a few balls into the water and start hemorrhaging strokes fast. Even for the top players, the eject button never seems to be too far away. In a way it makes this event’s outcome somewhat volatile — strong players will miss the cut.

The Course

The Honda Classic is played in Palm Beach Gardens at the PGA National Championship course. It’s a Par 70 with Bermuda greens — not an overly long course, measuring at just 7,125 total yards.

The two prevailing themes or identity of the course come in the form of water and the “bear trap.”

Water comes into play on nearly every hole at PGA National, which unsurprisingly has allowed this venue to lead the PGA Tour in most balls in the water year after year. Key to success here will undoubtedly derive from avoiding these hazards as much as possible.

As you’ll hear a billion times this week, the Bear Trap is a brutal three hole stretch from holes 15–17 at PGA National, where all three holes play over par. It’s the 4th most difficult three hole stretch on the PGA Tour.

While players will look to just avoid the danger that lurks around many corners of PGA National, inevitably bad shots will happen and mistakes will occur. Golfers have to limit the damage — don’t let bogeys become doubles or worse.

While there’s no single skillset that succeeds at PGA National year over year, seemingly ball striking and scrambling will need to be leaned on immensely. Comfort on Bermuda grass greens may go a long way also.

The Field

Last year’s Honda Classic field was extremely weak due to it being sandwiched between Match Play and THE PLAYERS Championship.

This year though, Honda gets to lead off the Florida swing and has attracted more big names because of it. Not quite as loaded as Genesis or Waste Management, but nonetheless a quality mix of top guys, vets, newcomers, and Europeans playing stateside for the first time this year.

Euro Ryder Cup guys like Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Ian Poulter, and Lee Westwood lead the charge for that latter group. It truly feels like we haven’t seen any of them play in ages, but I’m especially excited to see what Lowry and Fleetwood do this week — both seemingly have been competing well in other parts of the world lately.

Sungjae Im, Louis Oosthuizen, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, and last week’s winner, Joaquin Niemann are among the favorites who headline the field this week.

Honda has a history of both favorites and long shots finding the winner’s circle, and so I’m curious to see which way it swings this year.

Final Thoughts

The Honda Classic definitely has the initial feel of “just another tournament,” but if you enjoy major championship-like conditions then you will likely enjoy the golf being played at PGA National this week.

It’s a nice appetizer that leads into two great events in API and THE PLAYERS coming up over the next two weeks. Particularly for those of you that bet and play DFS golf, I believe it can be advantage to dip your toes into what these Florida events will be like. Often guys can just get hot and play well out of nowhere during this swing — picking up nice finishes for two or three events in a row.

In other words, I think following the Honda Classic closely will really help anyone trying to figure out who is going to play well in the weeks to come.

Anyway, thank for reading and happy GOLF.

2022 Honda Classic (Brief) Preview was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Genesis starts tomorrow, and with such a stacked field in L.A. I’m especially eager to toss in a handful of lineups on DraftKings.

As alluded to in my mini-preview of the event, Riviera sets up as a tough test for golfers. The course is fairly long, making distance off-the-tee and/or long iron play important. With tough bunkers and difficult green complexes, short game should factor into the equation as well.

With all that in mind, I don’t really view this as a week where struggling golfers will suddenly flip a switch and start playing well. The elite ball-strikers in the field will avoid constant scrambling around Riviera, and the person who ultimately comes out on top will likely be the golfer who best minimizes the damage whenever they do inevitably hit a bad shot or two.

So altogether I want to play well-rounded golfers who I feel confident are in tremendous form coming into this event. To me this doesn’t feel like the week to take as many insane dart throws, or pray struggling golfers return to their baseline ability.

10K+ Range
Justin Thomas ($10,700)

Any time the best in the world are teeing it up at the same event, it’s hard for me to not to play Justin Thomas. He seemingly just thrives in the most competitive environments, relishing any opportunity to prove why he’s elite.

It’s been nearly a year since Thomas won at the 2021 Player’s Championship. Over that span Thomas — for his standards — has played lot of mediocre golf.

However, as of late Justin Thomas has been awesome, particularly in the ball striking department. Last week at Waste Management, Thomas gained an insane 10.44 strokes ball striking, and likely wins the event if he just putts to the field average (of course the same could be said for Jon Rahm too). He finished in 8th.

Despite missing the cut at Genesis each of the past two seasons, Thomas’ elite tee-to-green game seemingly sets up for success here. This shown by JT’s runner-up and 9th place finish at Riviera in 2019 and 2018.

I think there’s somewhat of a chance people see JT’s most recent missed cuts at this event and opt for safer golfers in the 10K+ range. That said, I’m excited to play a guy in JT whose recent form suggests he may be on the verge of getting back in the winner’s circle.

9K+ Range
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)

Admittedly, I’m still very torn between Hideki and Cameron Smith ($9,100) as my favorite DraftKings play in this range.

(Cam Smith’s game sets up extremely well for Riviera — we saw this last year when Smith finished T4 here. He’s seemingly an even better player than he was a year ago too, hitting the ball off the tee farther and becoming more consistent with his approach play. So I’m certainly in on Smith for this week.)

That said, it’s hard for me to ignore the spectacular stretch of golf Matsuyama is on right now. Similar to JT, Matsuyama’s ball-striking was awesome at last week’s WM Phoenix Open. Though what Matsuyama did even better than JT was in the short game, where he gained 4.5 strokes to the field.

Hideki has 4 top-11 finishes in 7 trips to Riviera, so the strong course history is certainly a plus also.

What more can I say? Matsuyama has been playing as good as anyone in the world in recent months, comes to a course that suits him well, and continually gets underpriced and overlooked on DraftKings. Sign me up!

8K+ Range
Will Zalatoris ($8,800)

I don’t want to overthink this one. Play Willy Z at tough golf courses where lag putting, two-putts for Par and Bogey avoidance is welcomed.

We saw it play out a few weeks ago where Zalatoris probably should have won at Torrey Pines. His ball-striking was outstanding all week, and nearly two-putted every hole on his way to victory on Sunday.

Willy Z finished T15 at the Genesis Invitational last year, in which he gained nearly 5 strokes putting. So I’m hopeful he can match his typical elite ball-striking with some good vibes on these greens.

If I have any reservations for Zalatoris this week, it’s because he was forced to withdraw from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am after testing positive for Covid. Hard to say how much that might’ve affected his game and the great stretch of golf he was on to start 2022…

I’ll just go ahead and assume Zalatoris brings his A-game to Riviera.

I’m also very excited to play Tony Finau ($8,400) and Adam Scott ($8,200) in this range.

7K+ Range
Joaquin Niemann ($7,800)

Joquain Niemann is sort of quietly having an awesome start to 2022, and it’s like nobody even cares!

In his only start on the PGA Tour this year, Niemann finished T6 at the Farmer’s Insurance Open on the back of incredible ball-striking (our buzzword of the day apparently). He gained over 3 strokes to the field in both off-the-tee and approach play — looking very comfortable with his game all week I thought.

Niemann continued his strong play the following week in Saudi Arabia, where he notched another top-10 finish.

In his short career thus far, Niemann’s produced mediocre finishes at Genesis. One might assume it’s because of his around the green woes, but Joaquin’s actually never lost strokes to the field around the green at Riviera. It’s been merely a sub-standard iron week here, or a poor putting week there.

All that said, Niemann is a young player who continues to get better and better. I believe in the talent of the 23-year-old Chilean long-term, and really feel like he can bring strong recent form into this week’s Genesis Invitation and have a great week.

The 7K+ range is loaded this week, and I’ll certainly spread out my interests accordingly. My secondary favorite plays include: Marc Leishman ($7,900), Sergio Garcia ($7,800), Paul Casey ($7,600), Luke List ($7,400), Corey Conners ($7,300), Mavrick McNealy ($7,200).

And my absolute mega-mind play of the week is Robert Macintyre ($7,100).

6K+ Range
Sebastian Munoz ($6,800)

Sebastian Munoz is one of those golfers you absolutely need to catch when they get on one of these random hot streaks. When Munoz is in form, he seemingly finds a way to regularly get onto the first page of leaderboards.

Even more than that — for our purposes — he can just fill it up with DraftKings points too. Munoz is a pure scorer.

Munoz had a rough start to 2022, missing the cut at the AmEx. But then he bounced back with a T39 finish at Torrey Pines and then a T23 finish last week at TPC Scottsdale.

Last week Munoz actually finished 4th in the field in strokes gained tee-to green — indicating that he’s in solid form coming into Genesis.

Munoz has finished 43rd and 26th in the past two years at Riviera (his only two trips here). For just $6,800 on DraftKings, Munoz feels like the perfect guy to round out a roster.

Only other 6K+ golfer on DraftKings I really like this week is Aaron Rai ($6,400), who feels underpriced.

5 DraftKings Picks I Love for This Week’s Genesis Invitational was originally published in Strokes Gained: Narrative on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.