Confusion des confusiones

Joseph De La Vega, 1688

Joseph De La Vega (1650–1692) was a Spanish Jewish merchant, financial expert, and poet, residing in 17th century Amsterdam. His masterpiece, Confusion Des Confusiones, is the first study written about the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, and was written as a dialogue between a merchant, shareholder, and philosopher as to best illustrate the various perspectives of market participants.

The publication of this book helped lay the foundations for modern fields of technical analysis and behavioral finance. The text in its entirety can be found here. Aptly named Confusion Des Confusiones, because:

“There was no rational purpose in the activities which was not overlaid with an irrational one, no trick used by one person which others did not pay back with the same coin, so that, in this stock-exchange business, one moved in a world of darkness which nobody wholly understood and no pen was really able to describe in all of its intricacies.”

Philosopher:

“And what kind of business is this about which I have often heard people talk but which I neither understand nor have made any efforts to comprehend?

Shareholder:

“I really must say you are an ignorant person, friend Greybeard, if you know nothing of this enigmatic business which is at once the fairest and most deceitful in Europe, the noblest and most infamous in the world, the finest and most vulgar on Earth. It is a touchstone of the intelligent and a tombstone for the audacious, a treasury of usefulness and a source of disaster, and finally a counterpart of Sisyphus who never rests as also of Ixion who is chained to a wheel that turns perpetually.”

Three Classes of Men

[Three classes of men are to be distinguished on the stock exchange. The princess of business belong to the first class, the merchants to the second, and the speculators to the last. The financial lords and big capitalists enjoy the dividends. They do not care about the movements of the stock since their interest lies not in the sale of stock but revenues secured through their dividends. The second class is formed by merchants. They consider their risk as much as their profit, they prefer to gain little, but to gain that little with relative security, and to have no worries other than those bound up in unforeseen events. Gamblers and speculators belong to the third class. They have tried to decide all by themselves about the magnitude of their gains and, in order to do so, they have put up wheels of fortune. Oh what a life has been created by these schemers! The labyrinth of Crete was no more complicated than the labyrinth of their plans…]

Philosopher:

“I cannot deny that, in spite of my natural inclination, I would try my fortune [on the exchange] if three great obstacles did not prevent me.

First obstacle: I question whether I should go aboard such an endangered ship, to which every wind means a storm and every wave a shipwreck.

Second obstacle: With my limited capital, I could win… only if I were willing to renounce my reputation frivolously. But to feel degraded… without being compensated by wealth, such a thought is vain and insane.

Third obstacle: Preoccupation with this business seems to me unworthy of a philosopher, and, furthermore, since everyone knows the humble character of my surroundings, there would be nobody to give me credit and to have confidence in my beard (for they would see I cannot pay for stocks on my own account). There would be nobody to lend me money on my beard… unless it were a beard of gold like that of Aesculapius in the story of Dionysius…

Shareholder:

“Even without going into technicalities I can overcome your doubts. The first danger is removed, because [I can tell you] there are ropes which secure the vessels against shipwreck and anchors which resist the storm.

Four Principles:

“The difficulties and the frightful occurrences in the exchange business… have taught some precepts…

The first principle [in speculation]: Never give anyone the advice to buy or sell shares, because, where perspicacity is weakened, the most benevolent piece of advice can turn out badly.

The second principle: Take every gain without showing remorse for missed profits, because an eel may escape sooner than you think. It is wise to enjoy that which is possible without hoping for the continuance of a favorable conjuncture and the persistence of good luck.

The third principle: Profits on the exchange are the treasure of goblins. At one time they may be carbuncle stones, then coals, then diamonds, then flint-stones, then morning dew, then tears.

The fourth principle: Whoever wishes to win this game must have patience and money, since the values are so little constant and the rumors so little founded on truth. He who knows how to endure blows without being terrified by the misfortune resembles the lion who answers the thunder with a roar, and is unlike the hind who, stunned by the thunder, tries to flee.

Bulls and Bears

“The bulls are like the giraffe which is scared by nothing, or like the magician of the Elector of Cologne, who in his mirror made the ladies appear much more beautiful than they were in reality. They love everything, they praise everything, they exaggerate everything.”

“The bears, on the contrary, are completely ruled by fear, trepidation, and nervousness. Rabbits become elephants, brawls in a tavern become rebellions, faint shadows appear to them as signs of chaos. But if there are sheep in Africa that are supposed to serve as donkeys and wethers to serve even as horses, what is there miraculous about the likelihood that every dwarf will become a giant in the eyes of the bears?”

The Company

“The Company is like the immortal tree [of mythology] which unexpectingly [and quickly] brings forth a new branch when an old one is cut off; there is no reason, therefore, [ever] to be alarmed about the Company’s situation, because it overcomes every obstruction immediately by a new development.”

Expectation Vs. Reality

“The expectation of an event creates a much deeper impression upon the exchange than the event itself. When large dividends or rich imports are expected, shares will rise in price; but if the expectation becomes a reality, the shares often fall; for the joy over the favorable development and the jubilation over a lucky chance have abated in the meantime.”

The Fountain of Gold — The Three Monkey Record of Money

Munehisa Homma, 1755

Honma Munehisa was born in 1717 in Dewa, Japan. At age 23, he was adopted by the Honma, a wealthy merchant family from Sakata. He amassed an enormous fortune with godly trading skills at the Dojima Rice Exchange in Osaka, and made the Honma family the richest merchant family during the Edo Era.

In Japan, he is called the god of the markets and the heaven of merchants. He is known as the father of the candlestick chart. The Fountain of Gold is a 37 page list of rules and observations. What follows are, what I believe, to be the most valuable excerpts.

Introduction

“Farming and investment share the same roots;
It is the people who do the work,
But it is the grace of heaven that makes things grow.
Those with a pure mind who believe in heaven
Will be guided into a bountiful world;
The mind always counts more than the loss or profit.”

The Highs and Lows of the Trend are the Law of Nature
“The rise and fall of the rice price follows the law of nature, and it is hard to identify either the down or up moments while it goes up and down continuously. Those who are ignorant of this rule should not even attempt to try their hand at trading.”

Wait Calmly When You Have Missed the Perfect Time to Buy
“If the rice price goes up by 2 koku just when you have decided to buy rice, you may think you missed the perfect time to buy and it is a better time to sell, but this would be a big mistake. When you have missed the best time to buy, you should wait for the next opportunity to buy.”

“There are times when just as you have made your buy at the bottom and expected some profit, the price stagnates or goes down slightly. When this happens you think you have miscalculated the market and you regret that you didn’t sell when the price went up previously. But this is the wrong way to think. When you buy at the bottom, you should never sell until the trend makes a shift.”

State of Mind at the Time of Good Luck
“When an opportunity presents itself to make profit from trading, you should go for the profit-taking at an appropriate level. Then take a two day break. If you forget to take a break at this time, you are sure to cause a loss at the end of trading no matter what profit-making opportunity knocks at your door. You cause a loss because your greed prevents you from making the right decision and because you become so overconfident of your winning that you wish to make 200 when you made a 100 profit before, and wish to make 2000 profit when”

When Moving Without a Stable Mind, There Will be Only Loss
“Even when you anticipate the rice price going up, you become reluctant to buy or sell when you see signs of the price going down, and when the price goes down after having gone up slightly, you think it is a bearish market. People often move without any firm conviction in mind. When you look back and think of the trend later, it seems easy for you to respond to the market formation by selling when the price goes up and buying when price goes down, but it is not easy to identify the market trend accurately. You should remain observant for at least two months until you are sure of a temporary bearish market. As long as your mind is chained to the up and down trend of the market, you will be lost throughout the year because of the market trends. Consequently, you will lose and cause loss in the end.”

Going Against the Trend is Not Allowed
“There are times when you decide to sell off your offerings because your forecast for the market is gloomy, but your forecast turns out to be wrong and it leads you to loss. Intending to distribute,28 some people begin to sell off their rice when the price is moving upward, but this is very wrong. You must not go against the trend. The same applies when you buy. When you realize your market forecast was wrong, take your hands off the market and remain observant.”

When I am Optimistic, All Others are Optimistic Too
“When the market seems bearish and you are frequently tempted to sell off, wait for three days, change your mind, and you are sure to win if you decide to buy instead. You also need to change your mind when you are sure the price is going to go up. This is a profound rule in rice trading. Don’t forget this. When you are optimistic, all others are optimistic: when you are pessimistic, all others are pessimistic too. People’s minds cannot comprehend the profound law of Ying and Yang, which governs the rise and fall of the rice price; it is destined destined to go down after going up to its limit, and to go up after going down to its limit. You only need to rely on the “Three Methods.”

Leave Emotions When Trading
“You should never sell or buy because you are angry. This should never happen.”

Rice Trading is like Military Strategy
“Three Military Strategies and Six Secret Teachings is the Wen Wei (文偉) of Military Strategies. It teaches you the importance of being well prepared, and the skills to build strong base. You also need to learn how it is impossible to win and defeat the enemies every time. Rice trading is like the military art. You trade with tens of thousands of people but you do not say you make laws and abide by them. Three Methods should be more open for interpretation than the writings in the Three Military Strategies and Six Secret Teachings. If it is cold for three years after making a shift in July, you arrive at a formation comparable to the Eight Formations (Ba Zhen 八陣). You must cherish the lessons with a sense of awe and respect.”

Mindset is Everything
“When trading futures in the eleventh month of frost, your mindset is the most important. For example, you should be ready, in your mind to make 500 koku of profit when you can make a thousand koku of profit, depending on your financial situation. You should also take 50 koku of profit when you could have made 100 koku of profit. Unless your mind is set in this way, you will be tempted and reckless, trade be it at the ceiling or at the bottom, until you fail to make any profit after having worked so hard. Those who want to take this path have to have this kind of mindset.”

Foolish Debates over the Highs and Lows of the Market Price
“No matter how close a friend you are with someone, it is not good to give advice to your friend on buying and selling. When your analysis turns out to be wrong, you can create a big conflict. In addition, debating the high and low of the market price is not good, either. Those who follow the path do not force their analysis on others, and do not trade based on analysis by others. If the prediction turns out to be correct even just to a certain degree, you become arrogant and want to boast of your analytical skills. You have to avoid this attitude. Of course when you explain your method to others, you can make the others believe you and could possibly help the others make some profits — perhaps two or three koku — but you can never give them a winning card. Do not get involved in somebody else’s business when you trade. It is most ideal to listen to the news about what it is like in Kyushu, the market conditions in Osaka, bad harvest and good harvest, and the general harvest conditions. Never tell others what is in your mind. This is a grand secret. Always keep it to yourself. ”

Trading Throughout the Year Brings About Less Winning
“If you trade throughout the year, you become more distant from the winning streak. Sometimes it is best for you to keep your hands off and take a break.”

Do Not Trade Based on the Daily Market Fluctuation
“It is not advisable to trade based on the daily fluctuation of the market price. Think of the ‘Three Methods”, and observe the market to see how much the price is going up or down during the up and down trend, and at what point it stops, while at the same time thinking of the harvest condition of local granaries and market formation in Osaka, and what position you should keep. For example, when you make your move to buy, you must buy after making a firm position, and disregarding the ups and downs of the price that you have seen. But thinking of buying at cheap price and selling at higher price only require too much work and does not return good profit. ”

Never Show These Writings to Others
“This writing, you should never show to anybody no matter how close they are to you. It is not because I want to remain the only rich person. Rather, it is because this writing could be misunderstood by some people, who are likely to end up making mistakes, and even worse it could cause damage to them and even create hostility against us. It is not advisable for others to see this and that is why it has to remain a secret. The Three Methods in particular are rarely taught techniques and few people in the world know about them. If you sell and purchase based on these rules, you will make profits and build a fortune, and will not end up losing. You have to value this writing and be cautious and determined in keeping this a secret from others.”

“ The team at 4NEW is proud to announce the world’s first coin ever, that embodies electricity. Our product is grounded in necessities, solving three global & social problems; waste surplus, energy shortfall and voracious energy consumption of cryptocurrencies.”

First ever coin that embodies electricity. Other than Electrify Asia, Restart Energy (MWATT, 4New call sign is KWATT), and Power Ledger. Oh, and crypto is eating all the worlds electricity.

“Cryptocurrency has no intrinsic value, it cannot be redeemed for another commodity, such as gold.”

Digix is a gold backed token, TrueUSD is backed by the USD.

Beyond these clear errors, the rest of the whitepaper fills out pages with unnecessary information, including an entire page defining gasification and anaerobic digestion. No specifics are mentioned in the whitepaper, just broad sweeping statements.

Last but not least, the tokens are locked up only until January 2019. Reading this whitepaper was actually pretty fucking funny, I highly recommend taking a look at it.

I brought a few of these issues to the attention of an admin, we had a great talk.

For more laughs, check out their Reddit page:

This Reddit post does a fantastic job digging into the team and auditing firm behind 4NEW.

Verdict:

A clear scam, monetary Darwinism at its finest.

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Whitepaper:

https://4new.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/4New_WhitePaper_English.pdf

4New: Tokenized Electricity (Scam) was originally published in ICO Investigator on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Verasity places heavy emphasis on individual views and brand loyalty rather than “churn and burn” content creation. As such, each view must be verified. POV prevents fake views using a variety of mechanisms:

• Counting views only from signed in viewers, single user cannot make multiple views at the same time.
• While a video is being viewed the player will randomly be required to provide information about the current frame of the video being viewed. This ensures the content has been streamed and avoid bots that try to watch without actually streaming content
• Video player must be visible, not hidden within a browser window or minimized.
• Suspicious activity is manually checked.

All of this data is open source, publicly verifiable, and immutable, as it is stored on the blockchain. This allows companies, individuals, or advertisers to see an accurate representation of viewership and engagement.

Content Creators can use VeraSparks to offer a portion of future commercial transactions in their channel to participants. A VeraSpark entitles the owner to a portion of the VERA collected on the channel while they hold the VeraSpark. VeraSpark’s are bought/sold on the Spark Marketplace at a price determined by the market. In this way viewers can invest in a channel, while locking VERA tokens in the process. VeraSparks enable creators to raise money to grow their channel while encouraging brand loyalty among viewers.

Creator generates 1,000 VeraSparks, sells 100 on the Spark Marketplace-> Creator receives $1,000/month in revenue in VERA token -> viewer holding 1 VeraSpark receives $1 in VERA token.

TotalSparks are similar to VeraSparks, however TotalSpark’s entitle the owner to a portion of the Verasity Foundation commercial transaction pool, rather than a portion of commercial transactions from a single channel. TotalSparks are “staked” for a set period of time, during that time tokens are locked and fees accrued by the platform are paid to the TotalSparks holder. After the expiration date the original VERA tokens are returned to the owner.

The costs associated with hosting millions of videos is enormous, YouTube operating costs total $700 million annually. Verasity focuses on quality over quantity, as such video uploads are treated as a service that needs to be balanced as opposed to allowing unlimited uploads from creators. Restricting endless uploads greatly cuts down on operating costs.

Verasity has four phases to push adoption and platform growth. Phase 1 is already in place, VeraPlayer is embedded on numerous ICO websites including ICOBench, ICOBazaar, CryptoSlate, ICOBuffer, ICOStreet, Toptokensales, ICOnomat and Coincodex. Phase 2 focuses on attracting a crypto-centric audience and creator base. Phase 3 involves uploading libraries of video content as a base to appeal to a broad demographic. Reserved VERA will be used to provide incentives for creators and viewers. Lastly, Phase 4 promotes and encourages use of the Spark Marketplace, which in turn will help grow channels and viewership.

Strength and Potential:

• The team is extremely professional and highly accomplished, previous work experience includes Amazon, Microsoft, AOL, Time Warner, Akamai, and various blockchain investment firms. The whitepaper is comprehensive and leaves no stone unturned.
• Verasity fills a clear need. A video platform which rewards creators based on quality over quantity does not exist, and Verasity will fill that gap.
• Brand loyalty for content creators is an ingenious idea. The ability to invest in a channel is rockstar potential.
• TotalSpark’s allow users to share in the success of the platform, further promoting platform loyalty. Additionally, locking up tokens increases prices through scarcity.

Shortfalls and Drawbacks:

• Growing a userbase will be difficult, regardless of how well planned the roadmap is. However I have no doubt the team will be able to accomplish this, its simply a matter of time.

Verdict:

Verasity is an incredible project, with real world potential outside of the cryptosphere. The team is well accomplished, has planned extremely well, and is hell bent on success.

VERA will be listed on Exrates post ICO with a ETH/VRA , BTC/VRA and USDT/VRA pairing.

With that said, I will not be investing in the ICO. I have no doubt Verasity will grow to be a successful platform, but the token will most certainly dump post ICO in the current bear market. Additionally, platform tokens have historically performed badly (BitTube, Autonio, etc.), that is until their userbase has grown (Steem, BNB). However, I can’t wait to scoop up dumped VERA tokens and make this project a significant portion of my portfolio.

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Whitepaper

https://verasity.io/documents/verasity_whitepaper_eng.pdfICO Drops

ICO Drops

https://icodrops.com/verasity/

Verasity: Next Generation Video Sharing Platform was originally published in ICO Investigator on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Tutellus uses a two token model for its rewards system: “TUT” is the platform’s base currency and can be traded on exchanges. “Smart TUT” or “STUT”, cannot be redeemed for fiat, and will be granted as rewards to users who contribute educational value to the platform via participation and engagement. STUT is pegged to the EURO at a 1:100 ratio, 1 EURO=100 STUT. Up to 50% of the STUT received per assignment can be exchanged for TUT. AKA $30 worth of STUT can be exchanged for a max of $15 of TUT. The maximum STUT per course is equal to the course price in EURO: $15 Euro/course, $15 STUT rewards to be distributed. If students engage heavily, STUT rewards can cover up to half the course costs . Free courses pay 1/10 STUT rewards as compared to an equal duration paid course. Holding STUT rather than exchanging it brings benefits in terms of job matching (not specified further in the whitepaper) and a loyalty program which reduces course costs.

Full Workflow:

Student pays $30 for a course (pay with TUT, 10% off)-> Teacher gets 70–85% of the course price per signup, in this case $21–$25.5 -> Student engages, finishes the course, and receives STUT (loyalty STUT program may discount 5–10% further)-> Student decides to cash in STUT (50% max) for $15 -> Leftover STUT brings job matching and loyalty program benefits -> Company buys TUT off an exchange, then gives TUT to Tutellus to get access to the best user profiles for certain skills. -> Student gets hired, everyone gets paid.

Strength and Potential:

• Teachers and educators are paid in either TUT or FIAT. This is crucial for any adoption. Not a single “normie” professional will accept funny money in return for hours of hard work.
• Functioning platform with an enormous user base. This cannot be understated.

Shortfalls and Drawbacks:

• Unless students can work remotely and are exceptionally qualified, I don’t see why companies would bother with Tutellus. Platforms like LinkedIn are great, nothing new needed.
• I got a headache after reading STUT and TUT a hundred times. Hopefully my description of the rewards system made sense to you, trust me I really did my best.

Verdict:

While Tutellus has proven operational success, I will not be investing into the ICO. Te-Food is another example of an established company which conducted an ICO, since launch they have performed badly. The crypto space rewards hype and excitement, and I don’t see an educational platform bringing that.

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Whitepaper

https://lib.tutellus.com/ico/pdf/tutellus.io_whitepaper_v3.25_en.pdf

ICO Drops

https://icodrops.com/tutellus/

Tutellus: Decentralized + Tokenized Educational Platform was originally published in ICO Investigator on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Currently, researchers find study participants by advertising in healthcare facilities or posting ads online. Iryo Network allows institutions to request data from users and compensate them in IRYO tokens.

Private key storage is a serious issue if adoption is to be taken seriously. These long, random combination of characters and numbers are to much for average users to comprehend and use regularly. Through a long and complex process involving users, clinics, and personal doctors, private keys are always kept safe without the need for users to store keys themselves.

Strength and Potential:

• Healthcare data storage is a serious financial burden for institutions, and frankly a giant pain in the ass. Data breaches are common and costly, averaging $380 per record.
• Institutions often use different software, transferring data from one facility to another is a lengthy process.
• Researchers spend valuable time searching for participants, Iryo Network streamlines this process. Additionally, global users can participate in local studies.
• Iryo Network has a clear adoption roadmap, how clinics will utilize the token, how patients will use the platform, how private keys will be stored. All aspects surrounding adoption are discussed in great detail.
• The system has already been tested, and is in use at a mobile clinic in Amman, Jordan.

Shortfalls:

• No matter the model, users and facilities must take part. Marketing such an advanced concept may prove to be difficult.

Verdict:

The Iryo Network whitepaper is one of the most well written and thought out ICO documents I have read. While many medical data-based ICO’s have hit the market, Iryo Network is one of the few to provide a comprehensive solution to data storage and security, as well as tackle serious adoption issues facing cryptocurrency based projects. The team is extremely accomplished, with CEO Vasja Bocko holding a previous position at Bitstamp. Considering how the system is currently in use, I will be entering a long term position.

Iryo Network Whitepaper

ICO Investigator is committed to pushing honest and unbiased content in an otherwise shady community full of scam projects. To make sure you get these reviews before everyone else subscribe to our Telegram, and follow us on Medium.

Iryo Network —Anonymized Healthcare Data Storage was originally published in ICO Investigator on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Introduction

Dav Network features a jumbled, difficult to read whitepaper with a mixed and unclear mission statement. I’ve dug through dozens of whitepapers, most are painful to read. With that said, Dav Network is unique in that it is promising and shitty at the same time.

What is Dav Network?

DAV is a blockchain-based transportation protocol that enables a decentralized, peer to peer, global transportation network. Our underlying infrastructure enables vehicles to discover, communicate, and transact with one another using DAV tokens. ¹

Essentially, Dav Network envisions a decentralized vehicular sharing marketplace. Users can rent peer to peer, to companies/organizations, anyone who wishes to rent. Conveniently, the Dav team neglected to mention regulations and roadblocks that will shut down the project before it starts.

Use Cases, As Stated in the Whitepaper

• You want to quickly send a package to a friend who lives 30 miles away. Pull out your Dav App, call a drone, load up your package, send away. Easy peasy? Not really.

Rebutal: No fly zones exist all over the United States, other countries have similar restrictions and some countries have outright drone bans. Flying a drone in most major U.S cities is illegal. In less densely populated areas there is less demand for drone delivery. To summarize, peer to peer drone rentals will never work, as they are illegal in populated areas and unnecessary in sparsely populated areas.

• Companies like Dominos and Amazon can rent drones from consumers to deliver pizza and packages. The users renting to these large, reputable, and self-reliant companies are completely anonymous, anonymized by the platform.

Rebutal: Large companies have a tight leash on all aspects of their supply chain, and would never rent crucial supply chain components from anonymous individuals. Dav Network suggests charging, maintenance, and “docking” autonomous vehicles are issues serious enough to warrant outsourcing. I am speechless.

• Through “Decentralized Discovery” autonomous vehicles can discover other vehicles around them, as well as service providers and clients.

Rebutal: This is a description of Google Maps.

Dav Network is a conceptual failure,

A Singular Challenge, as Stated in the Whitepaper

In the entirety of the whitepaper the team listed only one challenge, and the solution is weak to say the least.

• A huge support network is needed for autonomous vehicles. Charging, repairs, docking, cleaning, rescue must exist worldwide. Their solution? Pay tokens to users providing these services.

Rebutal: Autonomous vehicles are complex machines, repairs may not last and repairs are almost always done by the manufacturer.

Who pays for the parts needed for repairs? This system does not differentiate between quality brand name replacement parts and shitty knock off parts. How does the system know a job has been done correctly? What about scratches or surface damage that is unreadable?

What about electricity costs when charging? Does payout change? Who pays for a drone if it breaks? The last operator?

Summary

The Dav Network whitepaper contains 7 pages of background information about drones, complete with pictures. There are 12 pages describing aspects of the actual project.

The idea is interesting, but will never work. Regardless of laws, a city cannot function with 5,000 drones bumping into eachother. Drones are loud, and often piss people off. There are endless reasons why this project will fail, and no reasons why this project should even exist.

Disclaimer:

This is not investment advice, always do your own research.

Resources:

1. https://dav.network/whitepaper.pdf

One of my bigger mistakes of 2018 was not preparing for the inevitable (short lived) rebound after a precipitous month long drop. Planning ahead is crucial for success, you don’t want your thumb up your ass when alts start bouncing. So take a deep breath, take a step back. Lets plan for the destined rebound.

Listed in order of the chances of success are what I, personally, will be buying on the dip. Please note this is not investment advice, as a panda I mainly shit and fuck; those are my specialties (please DM for lessons).

Altcoin Catalysts

If you are not sure what catalysts are, please read this article. These are proven factors which bump prices. Forks, airdrops, releases, etc.

Bitcoin 1:1 Forks

Haven (XHV) is mostly known for being the asset chosen by a select few to manipulate to the moon. XHV will be conducting a hard fork, date of the fork to be announced in early August. The team is extremely professional, communicates well, and has an excellent marketing strategy.

While this may just be a ploy by some to manipulate the price, it will be a successful one. A 1:1 fork brought Hexx to well over 20M marketcap up from 600k. XHV is sitting sub $5M.

Hexx (HXX) has a hard fork on the 30th of September. Price action has been great so far.

Utility Exchange Tokens

Valuating a utility token is extremely easy. How many users on the platform? How successful is the platform? Is it filling a need? Is it trusted?

First to come to mind is Binance Coin. BNB will continue to be a great investment as long as Binance continues to be a great exchange. Very simple. Very easy.

Aurora DAO (AURA) is a dividend utility token for the IDEX platform. IDEX is currently the number one decentralized(ish) exchange and is known for listing recently launched ICO’s prompto.

Kucoin Shares (KCS) is a dividend paying utility token which pays out altcoin dust based on exchange volume.

There are several other exchanges with tokens: Bibox, Coss, Switcheo, but none have proven their worth (fake volume, shitty listings/UI)

Dominant Large Caps

These alts are staples to the cryptosphere and have existed for years.

Ethereum no introduction necessary.

Stellar (XLM) top performer of 2017 ($.00269->$.256 = 9,416%). Rebounded very nicely on the last dip, proven to be a great buy under $.20.

NEO experienced a nice bump on the last dip due to upcoming ICO’s built on its platform. NEP-5 ICO’s will continue to enter the space, with NEO and GAS as payments. Plus the name sounds cool and people refer to it as “Chinese Ethereum”. While that last statement may not seem factually sound, keep in mind this is crypto.

Just Shitcoins

TeFood (TFD) may sound like a poorly translated Chinese shitcoin, but its actually from Vietnam. TeFood is an established company that is using its token, TFD, for supply chain traceability. Heavily discussed on social media, proven business success, and an accomplished team. Drawbacks include a shitty name, which is a big deal in crypto. It is inevitable that TFD will be added to a larger exchange, most likely Kucoin, in the near future.

Lamden (TAU) is a tool for developers to create custom blockchains and apps. It experiences insane highs and lows due to thin books and is far below its ATH and nearing its ICO price. Is frequently discussed on social media and compared to other blockchain coins like Ethereum and EOS.

0x has been getting a ton of attention due to Coinbase announcing future listings of ERC20 and purchasing Paradex, a DEX which uses the 0x protocol. Needless to say, listing rumors abound.

Auctus (AUC) is a retirement planning platform. Its unique in the space, and while the platform itself will most likely never be developed (as are most crypto projects) its low marketcap, constant shills on social media, and unique qualities make it a gem.

Hacken (HKN) tends to dump hard which makes it a great rebound buy. Super thin books, large spreads. Cool name, unique in the space, Mcafee as an advisor.

Autonio (NIO) is a successful automated trading DEXbot, I’ve written extensively about it. Considering its proven success and functioning platform, its clearly undervalued sub $3m marketcap. Beginning to make waves on social media, just waiting for a larger exchange listing at this point.

No doubt there are dozens of other coins worth mentioning, but I don’t hate myself enough to discuss them all. Much of my portfolio will enter in to the top catalysts listed above, if any airdrops/forks are announced between now and a market rebound I will re-evaluate.

Not investment advice. DYOR.

“Adoption” is a famous crypto buzzword. Beautifully vague and ambiguous, its a key component of any shill discussion. In actuality adoption in terms of crypto can take two forms:

• Means of transaction, a literal currency
• Store of value

In this article I will discuss the points made for adopting free-market cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin For Business

Crypto is a highly volatile, unstable, and unregulated form of currency. As of now, there is no reason for businesses to accept such a form of payment. Famously in January 2018 the North American Bitcoin Conference stopped accepting cryptocurrency as payment. 2018 also saw Steam, Microsoft, and Stripe cease to accept digital currencies.

Pros:

• Services/products can be purchased easily from anywhere on the globe, international payments are greatly simplified.
• Reduced fees and extremely fast transaction time (dependent on crypto asset).

Cons:

• Highly volatile asset, greater risk for any business to accept.
• No return policy, no consumer protection, no do-overs/take-backs.
• Inaccessibility for most consumers, only niche consumers use cryptocurrencies.
• No reason to accept digital currencies, fiat works great. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

Bitcoin initially saw its value climb as it started to be used for deep-web transactions. For transactions outside illegal underground marketplaces, fiat is king and will remain that way.

Cryptocurrency for business? F

Cryptocurrency for Peer-Peer Transaction

What is stopping most people from transacting peer-peer with cryptocurrency rather than fiat? Accessibility. Purchasing cryptocurrency requires fiat and a bank. If someone already has fiat, why go through the process of purchasing crypto to send, just so the receiver can transfer back to fiat?

Pros:

• Quickly and cheaply transfer money internationally.

Cons:

• Most people don’t give a shit about cryptocurrency, its use carries a small learning curve, and it is still time consuming to purchase any crypto asset.
• Must buy/sell assets immediately to avoid volatility.

For those on the in with crypto, international payments are so much easier and simple. However volatility is real, and reasonable people will find they must buy/sell immediately. Cryptocurrency for peer-peer transactions? B

Tokenizing Real-World Assets

“Giving users easy access to many different kinds of digital assets on the blockchain and, particularly, tokens that are linked to assets in the real world, is crucial to seeing blockchain adoption reach the next level, and I applaud Digix’s initiative in being the first of many such projects to successfully launch.”
- Vitalik Buterin on Digix Global

This is a clear use case for blockchain technology, not for obscure free-market crypto assets. Value is tied directly to real-world assets, with the tokens used as a simpler, faster, and easier means of transfer and ownership. The use cases here are enormous, practically anything can be tokenized. Blockchain use-cases? A+

Store of Value vs. Means of Transaction

Hodlers are not hodling only to spend BTC on froyo next year. I’ve never heard of a fiat hodler, or a hodler of any true currency. Bitcoin is a store of value more than it is a currency. Considering it is the first of its kind, and blockchain technology will revolutionize the world, it makes sense Bitcoin will be around for years to come.

Bitcoin as a store of value? A

Adoption of Your Shitcoins.

Nothing to adopt here. Over 4,000 digital assets do not need to exist.

Summary

Crypto for business? No

Crypto for peer-peer? Possibly

Crypto for store of value? Just Bitcoin, possibly Ethereum

Adoption of the underlying technology? Yes

Adoption of your shitcoins? No, never, impossible

This article is a detailed critique of several posts published on by Lympo on their Medium page. This is not a “FUD” article. My former profession was in fitness, and in addition to my fitness background I have a bit of common sense and an IQ higher than an empty cereal box.

I have reached out to Lympo multiple times, they responded only once, and their reply was riddled with false claims and assumptions. I tried asking questions in the Telegram group and was lied to and personally attacked by Tony G, their head advisor. The admins ignored the name calling by Tony G, claimed they had answered the questions (which they had not) and then banned me. I took screenshots after I was banned, which is why my messages were deleted.

With the personal attacks out of the way, lets look at the actual substance of the various posts Lympo has made, why many are misleading, and why the project is entirely bullshit.

Marketing at its Finest

Lympo has a fantastic marketing team. Credit is due where credit is deserved. Their marketing is far superior than any other crypto project, they consistently push fluff blog posts that contain little to no information, and promotional videos.

As stated in a recent article of mine, a spokesperson is a strong factor in marketing in the crypto space. Ada does an excellent job filling this role. She appears friendly and amiable in every video, big smiles and plenty of enthusiasm.

Lympo has paid for promotional advertising across the crypto social media sphere. Many of the videos featuring Ava have disclaimers. Lympo even published a blog post highlighting how they have been featured on so many grassroots crypto outlets.

Dallas Mavericks and Lympo

Response to “Dallas Mavericks and Lympo announce multi-year partnership to promote health and fitness tech”

• It is fascinating how a reputable team would partner with a company with no working product and very clear flaws in their concept.
• I am reaching out to the Mavericks for comment, will keep everyone updated on that progress.

Use of Crowdfunding

Response to “Using the LYM token to crowdfund sports and wellness related initiatives”

• This is an unnecessary addition to a self described fitness rewards platform. It just doesn’t make much sense.
• No mention of any fees or details surrounding crowdfunding. The article is reworded fluff from the whitepaper, as are most of the blog posts.

Lympo and Changing Sports Habits

Response to “5 Reasons Lympo Will Change The Sports Habits Of Regular Users” in order of the listed reasons.

Motivation to keep working out:

“But the most valuable reward — at least as perceived by our brain — is that which holds monetary value.”

Athletes that regularly take part in sports do not need extra motivation in the form of pennies per mile to help them workout. Lympo has stated repeatedly rewards are small.

A Healthy Community:

There is no incentive or component of the platform that fosters community strength. No part of the platform has anything to do with supporting other users.

Tailored Workouts:

“Lympo solves this problem by bringing personal trainers and big data on board. Users will be able to use the tokens to buy services from certified personal trainers”

This is already available on multiple websites and apps. Most people do not want to pay for personal training, it is expensive. Regardless, the most important part of working with a personal trainer is motivation and fostering a close relationship.

Personal trainers are much more than a resource for fitness, they often fall into a role of being a therapist. Building a deep close connection with a client is not possible through an online app.

Correcting a clients form while working out is crucial, as bad form may lead to serious injury. This is not possible when done remotely.

Almost all of the personal trainers listed on the Lympo website hail from Lithuania. Time zone issues are a real thing.

Digital Health:

“Based on one’s activity records, it is possible to make plenty of suggestions for further improvement. Be it muscle development, dietary improvements, or achieving new goals that seemed unachievable before. By systematically processing the data and using knowledge of health and fitness professionals, Lympo will be able to offer its users tailor-made advice.”

This is absolutely not the way health and fitness works. Humans are not predictable machines. Life often gets in the way of lifestyle, if an algorithm can offer specific advice to each user, than what use is the personal trainer?

Working For Improvement:

“One of the greatest fitness trends coming up in the future is functional training. Unlike usual workouts, the purpose is not solely to work out — it is to improve your daily life. Lympo’s interactive ecosystem will allow matching those daily needs with people that can help achieve improvement. Seeing improvement in everyday life will thus act as great motivation to keep going forward, while also significantly improving one’s health.”

Matching daily needs to “people”? I’m assuming that was meant to be written as personal trainers. Regardless, “Interactive ecosystem” is a nice buzzword but this is nothing specific to Lympo.

A Healthy Lifestyle For Everyone

“Understanding the complexity of the issues, Lympo has developed an ecosystem to tackle the main problems. Whether it’s lack of knowledge, motivation, or money — Lympo will help to overcome those problems and help its users to live a healthier lifestyle easily.”

Oh boy.

• Rewards, as said multiple times by the Lympo team, are minimal. They will not provide an incentive to cheat, or an incentive to work.
• Knowledge and motivation comes from support, which you can only get from purchasing the services of a trainer. Online personal trainers are notoriously ineffective, as personal training is ONLY effective when it takes place in the real world, not online.

Using Lym at the Gym

Response to “Using LYM while hitting the gym? Sure!”

“Is the gym membership price dragging you down? Pay it fully or partially with LYM which you’ve earned by running a marathon!”

Considering Planet Fitness offers a $10/month membership, gym fees are not always expensive. As far as paying with LYM earned from running a marathon, this is a hilarious statement, one which I have refuted in the past. The average cost of a marathon in the U.S is $60-$100. Uploading a picture of a $60 bib for a minuscule reward to pay $10/month gym fees defies common sense.

“Do you need some new sports equipment or maybe nutritional supplements? Get a discount by paying with LYM.”

First you must purchase LYM, a highly volatile cryptocurrency. You must buy BTC, transfer it to an exchange, purchase LYM, and then find a retailer which takes LYM as payment. Seems like a great system to me.

“Another potential example — a loyalty and motivation system in which the gym, by participating in the ecosystem, would be able to rewards its most active members with LYM tokens for their loyalty and enthusiasm.”

This already exists, its called Perkville.

Progress Update Video

Response to “Lympo progress update from CEO Ada Jonuse and CPO Marius Silenskis”

• In a poorly scripted and painful to watch video CEO Ada speaks about an announcement of an announcement, and thats about it.
• One of the only take aways of the video is that the team is working on API’s to incorporate other fitness platforms into Lympo. This system won’t work. Why would a user sign up for a rewards platform with negligible rewards?
• The video, as is the rest of the Lympo project, is excellently done in terms of marketing. Most of the video is pretty shots of people looking happy and doing things with nice music underlaying every shot.

On Lympo Being a Community Driven Company

Response to “Lympo is a community-driven company, so tune in!”

• Questioning the efficacy of the project will lead to a ban hammer and no further responses from the team.
• Tony G, poker player and Lympo advisor (weird right? why is that a thing?) runs the chat. He is confrontational, and an all around asshole as is evident by these screenshots. Note these were taken after I was banned, so my statements are removed.

Fitness Wearables + Lympo Makes No Sense

Response to “A look at the wearable activity tracker industry: a flourishing environment for the Lympo ecosystem”

• Requiring fitness wearables for use will greatly cut down on the amount of users able to use the platform.
• Lympo makes no profit off of users purchasing fitness wearables from other fitness competitors.
• Fitness wearables often if not always come with their own platform.

“According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), the overall wearables market is expected to grow from 113.2 million shipments in 2017 to 222.3 million in 2021, with key growth happening in the smartwatch category, as opposed to basic wristbands, such as the Xiaomi Mi Band or Fitbit Charge. This is almost two times more devices in just a few years!”

• Lympo makes no profit from an expanding fitness wearable market, and considering how terrible their platform is I highly doubt they will be around in 2021.

“Despite the fact, currently, this data serves to provide valuable insights into their activity and health to individual users, but there is no infrastructure in place to voluntarily share it with various companies, such as sports and health service providers and get various rewards and incentives in return.”

• Companies like FitBit have an enormous head start on data collection. This data is sold for pennies on the dollar or stolen in hacks. There is no reason whatsoever for a company to pay a premium for data that is inaccurate, as with Lympo there is an incentive to cheat (and cheating is easy).

Don’t Forget!

Lympo is a fitness rewards platform. This means cheating is likely, especially because they have no safeguards in place to prevent it.

Their solution? Incentives won’t be great enough to incentivize cheating. Which means Lympo is a fitness rewards platform that doesn’t pay rewards.

Hope you enjoyed reading, and have a great day!

Disclaimer:

I am a human being with common sense, dignity, and a strong passion for helping others succeed in their health and fitness goals. I come from a fitness background, and the disgust I feel for Lympo, a blatant scam masquerading as the first “fitness based token” is strong. Everything I stated above is factually true, based on articles written by Lympo and conversations I have had (and released publicly) with the team. This is not a “FUD” article, this is a logical and appropriate response to a scam project.

Below is a list of ICO’s which started funding in 2018, starting with the smallest amount raised.

Elastos: ended January 23rd. 94M USD raised, $18.09/Token. Trading at $38.73.

“New blockchain whith totally decentralized P2P economic infrastructure which authenticates digital rights, transfers contracts, and turns digital information into assets through blockchain technology.”

Envion: ended January 17th. 100M USD raised, $.70/Token. Trading at $.12.

“Highly profitable, global crypto-mining-infrastructure — Hosted in mobile, modular CSC containers — Decentralized placement directly at energy source.”

Orbs: ended May 15th. 118M USD raised. Not currently trading.

“Orbs is a blockchain infrastructure-as-a-service built for large scale consumer applications to meet their business and technological requirements.”

“A stable cryptocurrency with an algorithmic central bank.”

Bankera: ended March 4th. 150M USD raised. Not currently trading.

“Bankera is building a digital bank to last for the blockchain era.”

Huobi Token: ended February 28th. 300M USD raised, $1.52/token. Trading at $4.33.

“Blockchain-Powered Loyalty Point System.” Native exchange token of the Huobi Exchange.

Dragon: ended March 15th. 320M USD raised. Not currently trading.

“A new digital currency, funded upon Ethereum Blockchain system and strongly underpinned by a substantial gaming business in Macau.”

Petro: Venezualan President Nicolas Maduro claims $735M USD raised. Not currently trading.

Announced in December 2017, it is claimed to be backed by the country’s oil and mineral reserves, and it is intended to supplement Venezuela’s plummeting bolívar fuerte currency, purportedly as a means of circumventing U.S. sanctions and accessing international financing.²

Telegram ICO: ongoing private investors only. 1.7B USD raised.

“The Telegram Open Network (TON) is a fast, secure and scalable blockchain
and network project, capable of handling millions of transactions per second
if necessary, and both user-friendly and service provider-friendly.”

References:

1. https://www.coindesk.com/6-3-billion-2018-ico-funding-already-outpaced-2017/
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_(cryptocurrency)#Price_and_volatility