Briefly, like a long slender candle lit in a stormy night, Merz has become the hero of the hour. His announcement that Germany will block contributions to the EU budget until all EU nations pitch in for EU support to Ukraine is right. And as for Hungary and Slovakia’s wailing they are “sovereign states” that becomes meaningless while they stand in the EU line with hands outstretched. Neither provide anything to Europe, and are net benefactors, as are Bulgaria and Czechia, both also being asked to cough up for Ukraine.

Czechia something of a mystery: they continue to boost Ukraine’s military, of late with 16 planes, useful for shooting down drones it is said, but the other 3 nations are behaving maliciously by not giving any aid to Ukraine at all.

Merz is also right because at some stage it's likely that Europe will need to do more to support Ukraine than with cash and weapons, and the. 4 countries are just going to have to be involved. What is the alternative, that they agree to let russian troops through, on their way to attack another EU target?

Sure, the governments of Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria will have calculated they are probably not on the list as Russia's next cadaver-in-waiting. At least two of those countries have further, insidious thoughts also, of doing business with russia, when and as they can. Pretty poor stuff, and a signal that they won’t be available should the Baltic States get attacked.

They are also severely miscalculating: there is not just one scenario. What happens if the next president of France is marine Le Pen, and the add take over in Germany with the repugnant Alice Weidel running the show? Sure, the Kremlin will be cultivating a close relationship, and showing both governments ways they can stay in power, which can involve russian bases where there were American ones. Countries like the Central European states may be given a series of instructions russia would like them to comply with. All 4 used to be part of the Warsaw Pact, engineered from Moscow. That is reason enough for Russia to seek renewed compliance with what the Kremlin dictates.

Why would Russia do that?

For the past few years I have been arguing that if the Kremlin gets nowhere in Ukraine ne, or starts losing territory they will need to reach out somewhere else. A ceasefire will be quick and easy to organise. But what will Russia do then? Send everyone home?

The country can only serve as a war state, and if Putin is finally bumped off the next leader can only come from the same school; the FSB. The tsar must have his backers, otherwise he will be toppled, and the FSB have basically cemented control of the Kremlin.

The FSB knows they cannot just stop the war. Or that is what we are given to understand. The reality is a little more complex: with these constraints, and march forward of the war economy comes opportunity. To stay in power war must continue, and there are plenty of targets: the Baltic States, which would be the final nail in NATO’s coffin with a disconnected US. Moldova perhaps, even flying in over Romania. Armenia, too, already under Moscow’s disapproving eye, and the northern area of Kazakhstan, that russia openly covets.

Russia would like to teach Azerbaijan a lesson also, but knows it cannot, for Türqiye has made it clear: it will protect it's ally with force. Now there’s an idea.

The knack

Macron has a knack for saying the right thing, but doing nothing about it. Who can forget his 2023 declaration that NATO troops needed to be on Ukraine territory, causing an absolutely disgraceful public admonishment from Jens “Pinocchio" Stoltenberg, NATO head at the time, this with the French Foreign Legion said to be ready to come in through Romania.

Yesterday Macron declared that the U.S. was no longer an ally, and it was just Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan that stood with Ukraine. Standing is not enough, and some of Europe remains very suspect; not just Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria, but also Belgium, and Spain, who recently placed a large order of LNG to Moscow. How low do some sweep. There is no excuse for behaving in such a sneaky, double-faced manner, and personally I have had enough of politeness to those who try to speak for their government when they act so appallingly. Rare be they American, and even in Hungary, a young woman said “Slava Ukraini!” to me as I exited an air BnB in Ukrainian military jacket.

The French president must continue this time. He has nothing to lose and must seek a meeting with his neighbour in Belgium, to discuss the release of russian funds to support Ukraine, with the cowardly charmless Belgian Bert De Wever. The Belge PM is a Flemish nationalist, and as always with these so-called “nationalists,” unreliable as to their real agendas: In a March 2026 media interview, De Wever suggested that the EU should seek to negotiate a deal with russia and eventually "normalise relations" to regain access to cheap energy resources. This drew sharp rebukes from EU High Representative Kaja Kallas and even Belgium's own Foreign Minister, Maxime Prévot, who warned that the suggestion gave Putin "exactly what he wants".

De Wever refuses to back an EU plan to seize €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets (largely held in Belgium via Euroclear) to finance Ukraine, and has publicly stated that expecting russia to suffer an unconditional military defeat is "an illusion" without full U.S. backing, arguing instead that Europe must pursue a negotiated settlement.

That kind of language only stirs the faithful neonazis and pseudo-communists of Europe. Nobody is expecting anything of the sort, and it is disingenuous of De Wever to pretend any such thing as an “unconditional military defeat.” Snivelling coward.

Kasparov is right

The world chess champion Kasparov certainly has a point when he says democracy in western Europe has been both a blessing and a curse; a curse as many Europeans have never lived in a totalitarian regime, and do not fully understand the fight that others, such as the Ukrainians, are undertaking to never be trapped into it again.

That fight has cost Ukraine: Over 100,000 military casualties, and another 100,000 unaccounted for. 200,000 killed in action, and at least 3 times that wounded. I do not care in the slightest how many of the russian horde have been killed. Let it be the absurdly high number it is. Let them continue to hand out ridiculous prison sentences to anyone who dares photograph the russian military cemeteries — 14 years, the latest one. The crushing blow is the 200,000 Ukrainian fighters fallen in the defence of Ukraine, and the thousands of dedicated, committed foreign fighters.

So is it Merz, Macron, or Kaja Kallas?

Who can galvanised Europe at this hour of need? Of course Kaja Kallas ought to be president of the European Commission. Ursula Von Der Leyen is too distant, too reserved, inconsistent and lacks the fervour needed at this hour.

It is not going to be Europe’s finest hour perhaps, but Europe still must come together and perform, despite Trump’s pathetic attempts to deal only with Putin, who warned the Americans that European troops deployed to Ukraine after a peace deal would be “legitimate targets.”

Where was the American reply?

Why has the US not publicly replied, stating that if NATO troops are engaged, NATO will fire back? On the contrary, after their meeting with US envoys in Moscow, russia showed no willingness to compromise on territorial demands and had revived its 2021 ultimatums to curb NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.

US special envoys Kuchner and Witkoff, following their meeting with Putin, reported “progress” in the peace negotiations and confirmed that Europe will join the next round. Kushner called the talks in Moscow «very thorough and detailed.» Steve Witkoff stated that the sides managed to «agree» on the next meeting of the delegations of Ukraine, russia, and the US. Representatives of Europe will also take part in it — russia previously opposed this, we were reminded. Wow. Amazing diplomatic victory.

Thank you, murderers in Washington

The Hero of the Hour was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Estonia’s interior minister Igor Taro has urged Europe to classify russian sabotage as sponsored terrorism. Once again it is the Baltic States leading the way. When will Europe stop being so bloody nervous? Bombs, drones, disrupting airports, trains, planes, national health services and countless other targets is not hybrid anything.

A normal U.S. would also be denouncing this russian terrorism. But the U.S. is not acting normal these days, with the unfortunate news that a certain. Dana White of the Maniacle Wrestling Hood turned down the opportunity of being White House Spokesperson. Whyever. I wonder?

Trump really thought him and his barn of fighters would really be the solution to dealing with an already obsequious press? He really did. Trump is really that insane, despite his jocular “I was only joking” remarks.

So it's back to the drawing board. When a fighting promoter says no, there are not many places left to turn to. There is himself, of course, and that may ultimately be the best option, purely for entertainment value for those of strong disposition and rather dark humour.

Abu Dhabi

So the trilateral talks are over, says the russian media. Another silly charade orchestrated by Moscow. Playground stuff, which they get away with because they can; because they consider NATO incredibly weak, the EU a mess and Trump a useful idiot. The US apparently proposed changing the administrative borders of Ukrainian regions so that russia could announce the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with cities and areas controlled by Ukraine remaining part of Ukraine, The Economist reported.

On the surface it has some validity, but it leads to russia permanently gaining the lands, which is not the kind of outcome anyone would like, even if these are details on paper: The minute Ukraine agrees to something like that does, at the same time mean they have relinquished part of their territory.

Putin himself used the negotiations to prolong the war, and seek further favours, among them returning russia to the European energy market, although Ukraine and its partners would oppose this.

Kyiv was worried that the Kremlin would use discussions of European security to put forward new demands and drag out the ceasefire. One main obstacle is security guarantees. Russia demands Ukraine's neutrality and a reduction of its army, and does not want to see an international contingent there. That is a non-starter, and there is no justification for any of the three points. Ukraine insists on at least ten years of support and an army of 800,000 troops, as well as a full prisoner exchanges.

Ukraine is entering winter with a difficult state of infrastructure. Patriot stockpiles are nearly exhausted and will remain so in the future, while russia currently has about 700 ballistic missiles and produces another 110 per month.

In Abu Dhabi the US thought it would not just get a ceasefire but a final end to the war. European officials feared that Washington would keep offering russia too many concessions, and lean on both Ukraine and Europe to accept them. The US was once again abysmally unprepared, with a joke of a negotiating team. Europe had nothing to offer except to be there, and Ukraine fought for the right to exist.

Herz goes for the kill

Chancellor, make them pay! Herz has said Germany may block EU funding if Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and Bulgaria continue to not helping the EU provide funds for Ukraine. They are scabs; parasites of the EU, nothing more, and nothing less. The idea that Hungary continues to block Ukraine’s EU accession is mind-blowing. They have no shame.

It has been a couple of weeks…

I am haunted by those killed in russian attacks. Many were friends of mine, falling in battle. Two weeks ago russians killed 5 women in an air strike in the Kharkiv region — all of them were employees of the Regional Centre for Disease Control and Prevention — Ministry of Health

The horrendous attack by the russians took place on 29 October. All those killed worked at a branch of the Kharkiv Regional Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

I am especially haunted by the look of the woman in the centre. Poor soul, and bless all of you, Ukrainians, taken by this brutal war.

Ukraine’s rugby league team

There are 3 kinds of rugby: rugby union, a rugby sevens and rugby league. Have a look below:

10th best team in the world. A phenomenal achievement — I have only included the top 30 teams here.

With so many players enrolled in the military, Ukraine took a step many other teams do, and called up players of Ukrainian ancestors in countries like Australia. Smart move.

We need to now focus on building women’s rugby league teams in Ukraine. I will be focusing on this in the next weeks, months and hopefully years. Hope we can get a structure together.

The Goddess Mokosh

In the 9th and 10th centuries, before the Christianisation of Kievan Rus, Perun was considered the highest god and the patron of the Prince Volodymir the Great and his warriors.

The Primary Chronicle records that the rulers of Kievan Rus (the precursor to Ukraine, and yes, a reminder that the russians stole the ‘Rus’ to form their name) swore military oaths and treaties by invoking Perun and his divine power.

Perun is associated with a consort, Mokosh, the earth, water, and fertility goddess. Together, they represented the cosmic pairing of the sky/thunder god and the earth mother. Mokosh also touched the earth with iris flowers where Perun’s lightning struck.

Thoughts from the trenches...based on words etched on paper in 2023 near the Kinburn Spit, in Ukraine

Ukraine: Latest was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Carlo and Benito on a side alley with a view of St Peter’s

Scene 1:

BENITO (gesturing)

“Spaghetti al dente.”

CARLO (admiring the view, turns)

“That’s it?”

BENITO

“In every household, you’d see the steamed windows at midday!”

CARLO

“The sum of centuries of civilisation in a few strands?”

BENITO

“Well, what have they brought us?”

CARLO

“Us the spaghetti connoisseurs?”

BENITO

“It’s not just spaghetti! A decade or two ago women sunbathed topless along the shore front.”

CARLO

“Who can utter the poignance of all that is constantly threatened, invaded, expended, if not you, eh?”

BENITO

“Someone must make a stand!”

CARLO

“Ah, the good ol’ days when to be called a Satyr was a compliment.”

BENITO

“Years ago they were baying for our blood at the Colosseums.”

CARLO

“You might want to make your stand in the 3rd Rome.”

BENITO

“Where?”

CARLO

“Red square, Moscow, they’ll love you there.”

BENITO

“No. The Vatican is my home.”

(They beginning walking again)

CARLO

“Any topless popes, or is it all in black and sieg heil?”

BENITO

“Oh, go burn in hell!”

CARLO (stops)

“Ah, exactly, thought so.”

(Lights dim, except red light over a doorway)

After The Wall Fell was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

European allies have already paid for the Patriot interceptor missiles, but Washington has yet to approve their delivery as Ukraine is hit repeatedly from russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, and more Ukrainians are massacred.

At this stage it does not matter who is in power in Washington: those interceptor missiles have been paid for: Release them. What Trump and Hegseth are doing by blocking delivery is nearly as bad as what Putin is doing by bombing the Ukrainian cities.

The death toll from Russia’s 2 November bomb strike on a school in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, has risen to 53, the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration said. The search is in its fifth day. When russia hits targets in Ukraine, this is what they are looking for every time.

🎬 Send the interceptors

🎬 Close the skies

🎬 Bring medics in to conduct training

Opinions

I have a great problem with “opinions.” That “I have the right to my opinion” kind. What an absurdity. I have heard them all. “They” should stop fighting being a predominant one. Yeah right. “NATO shouldn’t have expanded.” They weren’t. In fact they went out of the way to show they were not. Instead of bemoaning the joining to NATO of central and eastern European states, russia might have formed some kind of friendship with their ex-allies.

Of course russia could not. They had absolutely nothing to offer in the 1990s and early 2000s — and still do not. A clever leader in Moscow would have relaxed control over republics within the russian federation, and then offered similar terms in an internal market similar to the European Union.

During the first heady years of freedom from the Soviet Union, republics like Tatarstan were putting plans together to switch from Cyrillic to Latin script and establishing diplomatic representation abroad. The constitution of the Chuvash republic stipulated it was an independent republic. Akha republic (Yakutia) elected a republic that was seeking better terms with Moscow, and Kalmykia, the only Buddhist republic in Europe, on the shores of the Caspian Sea was chatting a more autonomous course that saw visits by the Dalai Lama.

Putin put an abrupt stop to that, upon his arrival to power. From now on, he declared, he was appointing the heads of republics in russia. They were no longer to be elected by the given republic’s population, and we're only allowed to use the title of “Head,” and nothing else.

Most republics then continued a policy of “russification,” importing russians into the republics to “dilute” the local minority, seeking ultimately to make them a minority within their own republic.

That is harder to do in some republics than others. Chechnya is an example, whereafter two particularly murderous wars Putin relies on his henchman Karimov to lat down the law, in an arrangement where the russian dictator still calls the shots when he feels like it. A latest incident is Karimov’s son and heir apparent suffering a bizarre bear fatal car accident: the message that the Kremlin chooses the next leader was understood.

The dream is not for the russian federation to fall apart — won’t happen; but for a leader who lets each republic and oblast select their own governor, president or sultan or whatever title they assign. This goes very much for republics outside what is a legal border, something Russia does not seem to understand these days.

The Soviet Union was formed — and run through extreme brutality. In 1917 both Ukraine and Kazakhstan were desperately trying to freeze themselves from the yoke of russian imperialism — for Ukraine this was the 2nd empire they were desperate to free themselves from, the first being the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. In 1940 it was the turn of the Baltic States to try to claim or reclaim independence. Moscow used the same tricks then: rounding huge numbers of civilians and carting them off to Siberia.

They did it to the Chechens — removing the whole population, the Crimean Tatars, the Kalmyks and other minorities, and just about wiping Circassians out of existence. Russia has been a brutal empire ever since its early days as Moscovia, when it collected taxes for the Mongols.

This idea of Putin’s, that somehow Ukraine belongs to russia is so absurd it is not even worth discussing. In fact it is an argument only the Kremlin dictator himself dares elaborate on, lecturing constantly on history in monotonous inaccuracy, this hoodlum tsar who has never even studied history, say nothing of teaching it.

But his henchmen do not even try to talk about such nonsense, and instead try to create soundbites about “Nazis" or “NATO enlargement” or other such nonsense.

The West

The West needs to learn from Ukraine much faster. Simply buying drones for existing tank units is not enough. We need to fundamentally rethink our military structures because many traditional Western weapons systems would no longer survive on the Ukrainian battlefield. And we need to do this immediately. —ex-CIA Director David Patraeus.

I cannot claim to know the exact state of affairs of each NATO military, but I can say what military sources are telling me by phone contacts: there is serious concern. Drone warfare constantly changes the game. It is not clear where new warriors who will use drones will be located in the oncoming years, for example, but one can assume it will be far from a “front line,” even those part of defensive interceptor teams. It certainly is not clear if they will be kitted up in uniform and helmet in many of these locations.

It is not feasible to suppose there will be any decisive victories in clashes between NATO and russia. Even swarms of drones will have a limited impact, assuming NATO forces will not be gathering many troops in one place — and they had better not.

Much focus will be on the huge amount of cyber-warfare to deal with, as well as extensive sabotage. NATO will not have anything in place to deal with this, and indeed it will be up to individual governments.

The internet going down for a few days can be envisaged, and many cables on sea beds cut. The Baltic Sea is currently a hive of activity, with russian vessels manoeuvring in the area & to the Atlantic, monitored as possible by NATO ships.

Putin is risk-averse and a coward in the same mold as Donald Trump, but he also has an inflated sense of what the russian army is capable of doing, a total disregard for losses taken, and a gigantic chip on his shoulder that needs a team of psychologists to remove. He is unable to comprehend* what a terrible war he has started or find a face-saving way out of it, and on the contrary, has pretty much forever changed his society and relations with the world. (*= I am not sure what word used there, to describe the russian dictator. He is of course not up interested in trying to understand anything at all, and thinks in a completely different mindset).

Overnight, russia attacked Ukraine with 317 drones. Air defense neutralized 271 UAVs (unmanned air vehicles), 81 of them jet-powered. At the same time, the russians struck 31 locations, with debris falling in nine others.

In the Poltava region, near Kharkiv at least seven people were injured, including a teenager severely. Russia attacked a residential area in Kremenchuk and a private enterprise in the district and fires broke out at several locations.

In the Kharkiv region itself, in Izium, six people were injured, including two children. About 10 houses were damaged or destroyed. A guided aerial bomb also destroyed the administrative building of a non-operational enterprise.

In Dnipropetrovsk russia attacked five districts of the region nearly 20 times. In Dnipro itself a factory was damaged; in Kamianske and the Hrechanopody community infrastructure was destroyed and in the Samar district a service station.

The Cherkasy and Khmelnytskyi regions were also hit. No injuries were reported. In Cherkasy, houses, an enterprise, and critical infrastructure were damaged, and in Khmelnytskyi residential buildings were targeted.

Recently Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed solidarity with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, after russian hackers leaked his personal and family data onto the dark web over Italy’s support for Kyiv. Sybiha offered Ukraine’s operational expertise in countering cyber threats, and supported Tajani’s call to address digital intimidation at the upcoming G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris. Expect much more of this before an oncoming attack by russia.

An antidote ~ forestbathing

The war in Ukraine is not going away for a while. It has marked many in ways that we might not be able to change back, so it is all the more important to reach into therapy to help maintain a balance.

From the confines of four walls, I might not be able to philosophise, or even to waste precious minutes quibbling about whether or not mild philosophy is as important as my 30-minute lunch. Enough mayonnaise may give me the illusion that my short lunch break nourished me. When I walk in my forest there are no illusions. Benefits are real.

We can often be separated into two groups, generally:— those motivated intrinsically, and those motivated extrinsically. In a forest, both are interlinked and blurred. Grandiose thoughts come with grandiose trees, and ideas develop, too, when undisturbed by the frantic, murderous war. Take a proper walk in the woods, long enough to let the trauma fade into the background, far from where you stand among trees.

What if we sought and received values from a forest? Here today, gone tomorrow is not true where pine cones lie on the generous earth. You may pick your own path, and reap the benefits of doing so. It is useful to revisit nature at its best to remind ourselves of this. We need to be able to meditate in the surroundings of our natural world and move among it. We need the balance.

The forest is important for taking us away from what is right and wrong, to a different kind of world and concept. We already know what is black and white. What we need is something a little less shallow. Improve your sense of balance by focusing one’s senses on the forest. Balance mentally, yes, definitely, but balance physically, too: The act of skipping from stone to stone, ducking under branches or merely walking over uneven ground is keeping your sense of balance and awareness alive. And if we are talking about senses — nutrients come not just from the mouth to the stomach, but also through the nose to lungs, and ultimately mind. We may all enjoy perfume straight from the source.

Ukraine: Latest was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Ukraine does not have many expectations from allies and friends after so many promises undelivered, but still, Ukrainians are collectively breathing a sigh in relief at the election results in the U.S. — only a few days ago Kuchner was demanding that Zelenskiy halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, as apparently he and Witkoff were spending a great deal of “time, energy and aviation fuel on mediating with the Kremlin.”

Trump's son-in-law made this statement during talks on 20 October in Oslo, which has been described as “very tough,” with the two Trumpian clowns telling the Ukrainians a 30-day pause in strikes on oil refineries would have been a way for Ukraine to show its gratitude.

I just hope never to have to see such stuff again. Let’s think of what Trump could have done as “leader” of the free world.

🎬He could have demanded russia freeze the conflict where it was, instead of repeatedly demanding Ukraine give more territory to Moscow — territory russians were unable to take after nearly 5 years of war.

🎬He could have ensured a steady flow of arms for Ukraine to defend itself in the name of freedom and democracy and not blocked them.

🎬He could have ensured intelligence reached Ukraine about oncoming missiles attacks and not blocked it.

🎬He could have treated President Zelenskiy with dignity.

🎬He could have galvanised support for Ukraine internationally and domestically, ensuring everyone knew where the U.S. stood.

🎬He could have avoided his disastrous adventurism in Iran, focusing instead on supporting Kyiv.

Europeans need to realise their role is not to avoid war in Europe at any price. This may not be a seismic shift for all, but it certainly is for some. At any price means, at some point, preventive action.

There were 5,936 russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia region in seven daily reports from 30 October to 5 November alone: 4,521 drones, mostly FPV, 1,246 artillery rounds, 139 airstrikes and 30 rocket artillery attacks. That does not include attacks all along the eastern front, and bombing of cities, towns and settlements.

Behind those numbers are the villages on the Orikhiv and Stepnohirsk roads, and the DSNS crews, mine rescuers and dog teams still digging through them, as I type — and you read.

An “ostrich-head-in-sand” policy has its flaws. There are those who think Ukraine should just give up some territory: we are talking about thousands of Ukrainians being sent to Siberia if that is the case.

The number of Ukrainians, civilian and military, who have been tortured is shocking, for want of another word — such as tragic, appalling, unforgivable. Inflicting pain and humiliation for sadistic pleasure might merit a different, equally condemnable category. I am certainly not sure any other army has tortured so much: more males than females raped, in horrendous circumstances, but by no means have women been spared any less. I don’t want to talk about the young girls here. The detestable, horrific facts only make one question Trump all the more, as well as a select of European leaders who just shrug shoulders or worse, say nothing of the world community.

And still, in 5 years, russia has lost more territory in Ukraine than it has taken. In this world has it lost its prestige, it's honour as a civilisation? Probably not: whores are in high places. The latest that are not able to do the right thing is the European archery federation, or whatever they are called, who have decided the best course of action is to welcome russia back with open arms.

Is it really worth a few dollars more? Or do they really think they have the key, the answer, that engaging with russia may lead to peace — as the Nobel p rize committee infamously did. There is nothing egocentric about that; it is pure narcissism. It is proof that those who have a collection of brain cells that everyone assumes signifies an intelligence quota that lifts them to some higher state is a false assumption.

What is missing today is not intelligence, but rather Emotional intelligence. EQ is not about being woke or not. There are a few fundamentals that everyone should really have a quota of, even if it takes at least 12 years of schooling:

Teamwork

Drama & theatre

Critical Analysis

Cooking

Physical fitness, health

Music appreciation

2nd language acquisition

Chess

Want science and maths? It’s in there. Want engineering? Theatre stage sets. Reading? Text analysis, but make ita critical analysis, so people no longer elect Trump.

Missing is History. That’s on account of me having the world’s worst history teacher who used to spend the whole lesson scribbling dates in a long row on the blackboard that we copied. I wish I’d smacked his head against it.

That lacking in subject matter may be the difference between me and those that are now conducting negotiations, like the Kuchner-Witkoff duo. Yeah, maybe not.

Kaja Kallas & Mark Rutter both stick to their guns

In Europe we have a few who are the right people, but because they are they are always undermined. Kaja Kallas is. Often by Von Der Leyen, president of the European Commission. But Kallas is rarely silenced: Kaja Kallas, who would have made NATO head par excellence recently said:

🧄NATO posed no threat to russia in 2021, and it poses no threat to russia at the moment.

🧄Putin does not have a veto over European security.

🧄So far, all the pressure has been on Ukraine, which is not correct, because we have one aggressor and one victim.

🧄In order to stop the war, the pressure should be on the aggressor.

Mark Rutter, NATO head, has recently being saying what should be said himself, however; to surmise:

🎱 Russians are now spending 40% of their state budget on defense, about 12% to 15% of their national income, while we in Europe are trying to reach 3.5%. Russia has a smaller economy, but their purchasing power with that money is also much greater than ours because of the structure of their economy.

🎱 The whole of russian industry is producing for the war economy. In Europe, the automotive industry produces cars. We must gradually start looking at how the automotive industry and other industries can also help produce defense equipment.

🎱 Ukraine currently has a strong army of around 800,000 soldiers. The entire German armed forces are about one-sixth of that. But look at the sheer scale of what russia is building up behind the Ukrainian army. Europe must build up it's armed forces. We must make those investments and keep Ukraine strong. We must keep our eyes on the objective: preparing ourselves for the possibility of a major russian threat that could one day trigger Article 5.

🎱 The panic in Europe over that diesel deal is understandable. “I raised an eyebrow myself.” But in the first half of this year, Europe bought €6 billion worth of LNG from russia. That is much more than the diesel deal will ever generate. So Europe is not innocent either.

🎱 We have to hope that this war is brought to an end, although it is unlikely that Ukraine will regain all its territory. What Ukraine is prepared to accept in a deal is entirely up to Ukraine. But these kinds of wars always end in a peace agreement, and that often involves compromise.

🎱 The russian threat is not necessarily manifesting itself directly on our borders right now, because so many of those soldiers are occupied in Ukraine. But we know that once that is over, that enormous army will not exist simply for the sake of having an enormous army.

The unreliable ally

Ukraine has not received approximately 43% of US military assistance under the USAI program. As of August 2026, Ukraine had received weapons and military services equivalent to 57.3% of all funds allocated to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program since 2022. A total of $33.5 billion was allocated to the USAI program. Therefore, the value of actual weapons and services delivered amounted to approximately $19.2 billion, and the remaining 42.7%, or approximately $14.3 billion, has not yet been reflected as delivered.

The report also notes that from February 2022 to June 2026, the United States committed to provide Ukraine with military assistance worth over $68.2 billion. However, the total value of the aid actually transferred may be lower, and its exact amount is not publicly disclosed. Congress has not appropriated significant new funding for support for Ukraine since April 2024.

Under the Donald Trump administration, new military aid commitments have been reduced compared to 2022–2024. However, deliveries under previously approved agreements have continued. The report also notes that as of June 2026, NATO allies have pledged approximately $6.3 billion under the PURL program for the purchase of US arms for Ukraine.

Meanwhile russian budget revenues from oil and gas have reached a 19-month high. In October, russia collected 971.2 billion rubles in oil and gas taxes, up 9.3% from the same month last year.Urals crude sold for an average of $101.46 per barrel in October, its highest price since 2014.

Perspectives

What we know, and what we see we get from sources most often favourable to our point of view. Yes, not always. There is a difference between cheerleading and supporting of course, but there is also with wishful thinking. The results can be dram_atic: success by Ukraine on the battlefield often results in less support, not more.

It is very difficult to get a real grip on who is losing, or winning the war. Would be a whole lot easier if Ukraine was receiving concerted, unified support. The fault line in this surely lies with NATO, but NATO is a group of countries of which one is more powerful than all the others combined.

Most are unified in one thing: criticising NATO, but professional commentators are going very far, generally, in their assessments of Ukrainian capabilities and an impending russian collapse.

This again may ultimately be harmful for Ukraine. The picture grows more and more rosy, with images of stunning orange skies in Russia, and let’s not take anything away from Ukrainians; they are doing a magnificent job. As we know, they pay a deadly price for this, and civilian victims are inexorably mounting,

How many times have I talked to young mothers with children, in trains or at bus stops, or cafes, as they try to decide whether they should stay in Ukraine or leave, their children often traumatised by the war.

Leaving is not an easy choice. And as they look expectantly at me, these young mo there's, often single mothers, what can I possibly say? What could I possibly advise? Thee is no answer; leave, or stay? For leaving is also a traumatic experience.

While the rest of russia is struggling economically, Dagestan has found a new moneymaker: male escorts for russian women. True, Dagestanis often have that Mediterranean look, and are a country of martial arts, boxing and wrestling. They are also pretty much a non-alcoholic republic. For the russian woman this is something of a godsend. However, the service has become so popular that it has resulted in a massive spike in AIDS contractions.

Hungary is blocking any further steps to EU integration with Ukraine, to “further study the dossier.” information has been received that Orbàn may have been an informant, and the Hungarian parliament discussed that 1956 invasion and heroic resistance to the russian soviet forces was not what it was reported to be, and that there were no russian soldiers: in fact all the invasion force was composed of Ukrainians. You cannot make that up. Slimey gits.

In Finland 20% of the country’s seed-potatoes burned up last night. That is a lot. Yes, russia.

Various TV channels in Europe are currently receiving bomb threats. Yep, by them again.

What They Say was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Standing on the roadside, I watch the press speed by. Metaphorically, I mean, with headlining gusto! The latest of these marvels was:

“British and French Troops Will Shoot Back!”
The Coalition of the Willing is at it again; wishful thinking abounds…of that, there is plenty. I can hardly fault both Britain or France for declaring they were willing to enter Ukraine, and, well, shoot back.

There is nothing in these articles that survives proper scrutiny, sadly, and by sadly I mean very sadly.

The total number of British and French troops would be roughly 20,000 max in Ukraine.

If there is a ceasefire.

If they shoot back, there is no longer a ceasefire, because the russians will shoot again, and again, and again.

It is in the interests in the russian military to shoot, considering they number nearly 1 million. We live in the land of nonsense. Stop ducking behind tough words for the future and deal with russia is doing now. Some of the bomb threats:

• LOT Polish Airlines flight from London Heathrow, UK to Warsaw Okęcie, diverted to Warsaw Modlin, Poland (10:33, 10:58, 12:00, 13:57).
• SAS flight from Copenhagen, Denmark to Warsaw Okęcie (11:33, 12:59).
• Ryanair flight from Manchester, UK to Murcia, Spain (12:44, 13:44)
• Ryanair flight from Lisbon, Portugal to Rome, Italy (15:02)
• Ryanair flight from Dublin, Ireland to Rome, Italy
• Ryanair flight from Lisbon, Portugal to Sofia, Bulgaria (15:41)
• Ryanair flight from Dublin, Ireland to Sofia, Bulgaria

We now understand it has been 32 bomb threats, and still rising

At least reply, NATO, or Europe, or somebody! Of course we know which numbers the threats were made from. Of course we know from which locations they were made.

For many Europeans, this war is a bizarre event that does not align well with their lifestyle. They are split into different categories:

• The “not my taxes” lot: I didn’t agree for my taxes to be used to fund this war! = Just once, think of the alternatives.
• Those with bizarre sensibilities: There should be a ceasefire, we should stop sending any weapons, war is bad. Anyway, Ukraine has Nazis. = Read more, listen more, understand more.
• The lack of awareness brigade: “Yeah but,” they say, isn’t Tom Cruise bringing out a new film? = When you live under Putin’s rule you probably will not be allowed to see it.

In Kyiv the russians are dropping leaflets containing QR codes that infect phones if they are engaged. It is not difficult to imagine this in European capitals. The speed at which russia is upping their cyber warfare and information against Europe points to a real agenda, not just incidents. This is a real industry now, and not only based in russia: the FSB are paying bot farms located outside of the russian federation.

Inside Ukraine the FSB are still paying well for information about possible targets — and they mean targets where they can murder a maximum of innocent civilians. 40 at last count in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It is clear there are a large number of agents working both in Ukraine and russia.

In something of successful op, in Lviv they managed to convince passerby's and new recruits that a youth was being tortured in a recruitment centre. “They” being russian agents who a bit too cleverly melted into the night.

Recruitment is a huge issue. Those who have received enlistment papers must check in to the enlistment office — and ideally they should at earliest, in order to select a role and regiment that most suits them. But all the heroes of this war, those who rushed to sign up in 2022, and 2023, well, they are gone. They are gone forever, but they ensured Ukraine still lives as a nation. They are heroes. Each man and woman. Some of the best people I ever personally knew are gone, somewhere on the battlefield. There are so many terribly sad stories to tell one day, in order to keep their names alive, but now is not the right time. It never will be, of course, and like many, maybe you too, I have no idea how I will be, will feel after this terrible war is finished.

Every day the war brings more

Russia has begun launching a new version of the Gerbera drone at Ukraine, flying up to 1,200 km and carry a warhead of up to 25 kg. Initially the Russians used Gerberas mainly as cheap decoy targets to overload Ukrainian air defense. Now the drone has been significantly modernised to receive more complex navigation, modems, and cameras to detect interceptors.

The Gerbera-2 has a wingspan of three meters, can stay in the air for up to 10 hours, and accelerate to 200 km/h. A sample studied by the HUR had a 10-kilogram warhead and additional bags of incendiary mixture. Although the russians claim that the Gerbera-2 can carry up to 25 kg of explosives.

Its increased range allows russia to use it not only against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian intelligence, in September it was precisely this drone with a warhead that was found on the Baltic coast of Poland.

This when Witkoff stated that the US wants to build on the progress achieved at previous meetings in Kyiv, Oslo, and St. Petersburg and to agree on a "comprehensive and lasting peace agreement that will ensure security for generations to come."

Agree with whom Witkoff mate? Extensive work continues in the new military base and military sector in Leningrad Oblast, near the Finnish border. The russians would n’t be gathering soldiers this time. The Shahed, Geran and Gerbera (see above) drones will consist of the first waves.

Russia wants Europe to consist of a few satellite states, from where they can launch invasions. Hungary was the earlier ideal choice before Orbàn got himself dumped faster than he could react properly. Slovakia is a possibility, to with Marine Le Pen set to be next president of France, the Kremlin’s plans will have got to a whole new level of ambitious.

red is black
and black is dead
lead and iron split heads
bang, bang, bang!—rifles spit

body hits
shouts roar
something rushes
—the floor
bone and bullet collide
a trail of gore
leads nowhere

In twenty two I lost two teeth,
smacked onto concrete
ducked, diving from the flash
grenade! mouth smashed
bitter taste

six flights of stairs
russians up there...
bang, bang, bang!—voices choke
heavy smoke
dust, coughing, Spanish-French-English
splattered languages we spoke
"stop! get a grenade! shoot! here! go!"

then a call—"medic! medic!"
an endless slide
"crawl mate, fucking crawl," I beg
dragging him down
leaking red
my comrade
heavy, nearly dead
clatter, clatter, clatter, machine guns
in spurts, the guys run
shrapnel sings by
tourniquet! tourniquet!
fuck it snapped!
oh not the Chinese one!
try again!
black is red, red is darker
each hour

rack the bolt
and start once more
flush them out
then the next door
the next flat
the next town, month
year

Russia’s War in Europe Escalates was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

I remember watching those incredibly brave and hardy demonstrators in the winter of 2014, being sprayed with frozen water, beaten by truncheons and carted of to jail. Hut when one was taken, his other place was replaced by another: Ukrainians were fed up with corruption and meddling from Moscow. This time they were more determined than ever. They had tried before, during the Orange revolution, but the russians had tried to kill the new president of the time, Yukashenko by poisoning him, and his face was permanently pock-marked by the experience. He became a shell of himself, and worried about his garden above everything else. He also got intox a big row with Yulia Timoshenko, his prime minister, a gutsy strategist who had unclear sources of finance being investigated until today.

Russia formally started it's war against Ukraine in 2014, but in fact it had clearly been at war with Ukraine before that. One could say that phase 1 of their war started in 2007.

Phase 1 is the current European reality

Russia conducts unattributable attacks on leadership, public infrastructure, and industrial infrastructure. The objective is social corrosion; weakening the system from the inside. We need to stop calling this “hybrid.” It is grey zone warfare. Witness the latest; multiple supermarket chains in Sweden, Belgium, Estonia and Luxembourg with the temperatures of their refrigerators and freezers in dozens of stores rising overnight in a cyber-attack similar to one that caused millions of euros of food losses in France. Any mention of russia, anywhere? Of course not. This goes beyond cowardice, and seems deliberate policy.

Russia controls the narrative in this war on Europe, and as I have said previously, the only response we’ve seen as repeated meetings by the Coalition of the Willing. But the Coalition is for numerous steps ahead, and none of these steps have yet been explored, such as a more active support involving NATO jets.

With Bulgaria now crossing the line and joining Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia, the EU’s position is in flux. Why would Bulgarians elect a president sympathetic to Moscow? It is true that Bulgaria and russia have historical ties, but based on that Bulgaria should leave the EU and join russia's version of collective states. Putin has at least two: the Eurasian Union and Community of Independent States.

In the early 1990s, the thug of a Slovakian president Mercer was trying to drag the new state of Slovakia into the CIS. He reasoning was they’d be the richest state there, instead of the poorest state in the EU. A happy medium has now been struck: be in the EU and work with russia.

Phase 2 is the upping of the stakes to sub-threshold probing

Once grey-zone activity has found the boundaries in a strategic environment, russia probes allied responses: air and maritime harassment, cyber intrusions into military networks, sabotage of logistics routes and challenges to NATO aircraft disguised as incidents.

No-one expected the bonus of the United States praising russia for this, and demonising the president of Ukraine, and not just in words: withholding of aid to a democratic country being attacked by a totalitarian neighbour is a new one for the U.S., just before winter, which is building up to be one of free slaughter of Ukrainian civilians. This while the tsar in the Kremlin is complemented for being humanitarian.

This gives a lot of material for Russia in phase 2, as they try to drive Europeans and Americans apart as well as probe and provoke. Putin is no friend of Trump, no matter what he thinks ; otherwise the russians would not have bombed both Kyiv airports before the arrival of dastardly Witkoff Kuchner duo,who are themselves avidly pro-russian, but still had to travel by train overnight to the Ukrainian capital.

Very brave Americans are fighting and dying for Ukraine. Very stupid ones are voting for Trump. Who would have known that being stupid is so harmful? If only people would educate themselves sometimes.

Phase 3 is overt kinetic conflict

When the moment seems right and the opportunity there, as in Ukraine in 2022, russia transitions to full-scale war, using conventional forces, massed fires and strikes on infrastructure, governance and population. And executions, rape, torture, kidnapping, looting, environmental destruction and cultural genocide.

European states still tend to treat Phases 1 and 2 as ‘competition’ rather than conflict. That misdiagnosis creates risk. It encourages complacency. And it leaves governments unprepared for transition to kinetic war, should it come.

Phase 4 is the war of continuation

Russia itself exists in a state of war. With a collection of republics, Moscow must keep tabs on each of them. Some are more prone to separatism than others — Chechnya is the prime example, but Tatarstan and Bashkortostan would clearly secede if they could. So would Mari El and Yakutia, as well as Tuva and Buryatia. Khansi-Mari Republic would be advised to, in order to ensure their economy remains at a high level, and if Kalmykia did they’d be the only Buddhist country in Europe.

So Moscow keeps a permanent tabs, and does not consider republics outside the russian border in any significant different way. Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have long learnt not to cause any undue alarm. Azerbaijan worries less, under Türqiye’s patronage, something one would expect from Tajikistan.

Belarus is controlled from Moscow, Armenia is carefully seeking to release itself from the Kremlin’s grip and Kazakhstan knows russia covets the north of the country. Then there is Georgia, in the first instance, and Ukraine. Russia has already snatched South Ossetia from Georgia, and “gave” Abkhasia it’s “independence” — also from Georgia. However the Abkhaz are now discovering they are slowly being incorporated into Mother russia, something that was not in the contract.

Russia may well induce a bid for independence in the area around Batumi, in the south of Georgia. At some point they will take north Kazakhstan, or try, and they will cause extreme disturbance in Armenia if they feel the government continues to show interest in joining the EU. Already they ban Armenian and Kazakh products in Russia: they are at the first steps of Phase 1.

Remember, there is little difference in the Kremlin’s mind to quelling unrest in say Bashkortostan, part of the russian federation, and Uzbekistan, outside it.Quelling unrest is also a normal state of affairs. To this end Moscow is always seeking to have native, Slavic russian populate minority republics as well as seized territories, such in the Mariupol area of Ukraine, currently under russian control.

The main focus on Phase 4 is to keep instability a permanent state of affairs. Russia will never want a ceasefire. They thrive on instability…except too near to home of course, but in this case they enact measures that democratic — and some non-democratic countries would do. When Putin had Prigozhin murdered, as well as the crew of the plane he was in and the founder of Wagner, he sent a chilling message to the closest members of his cabal in the Kremlin. They are all very aware of which exact tower blocks feature windows leading out to nowhere, and have no doubt been reminded of this by the FSB, who has microphones installed in their apartments. But what’s new? This has been the russian way since the invention of the first microphone.

What Europe Must Do

• Europe must recognise that grey-zone activity is not a preparation for war – it is war itself.
• Defence must include presence in Ukraine to force a patrolled exclusion zone on NATO’s border, reaching in about 100 km.
• NATO must treat probing as a strategic indicator, not a tactical anomaly.
• European states must stop building a strategy on what happens after a ceasefire: russia will continue the war. It will not stop. The only thing that can be done is to contain it (North/South Korea is an example of this).
• There is a huge moral question, with 10 bombs hitting a humanitarian aid centre in Zaporizhzhia tonight, resulting in 24 civilians being killed, and 27 missing. Europe needs a much more coherent approach that includes monitoring sanctions and not allowing countries like Hungary to openly buy oil from russia.

Europe is not in a pre-war moment. We are in the initial phases of an extended conflict fought through digital, economic, political and societal pressure. If we fail now, we may only realise that russia has achieved paralysis at the moment we are required to react. Acting means more than just sending “more” aid.

4 Phases of Modern Conflict was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

According to the Kyiv Independent, the U.S. Embassy warned of a threat of a “mass casualty event” on October 31 at Tsaritsyno Museum Reserve, a massive palace and park complex located in the southern part of Moscow. It spans over 100 hectares—of hilly terrain, ponds, and ravines and is a historical museum and popular public recreation space, since the late 1700s.

The Embassy apparently stated it considered this “a credible threat” and was coordinating with russian authorities. Russia’s FSB confirmed receiving a U.S. warning about a planned “terrorist attack” in Moscow, adding that “relevant work is underway.”

Is the threat credible? Yes, judging by the past record of U.S. intelligence: russian authorities have been warned before, and each time a terrorist attack occured, the last by ISIS, though the Kremlin blamed Ukraine.

Would this be ISIS again? Related, at least — perhaps. The group that may have organised the attack will know the fault lines running through russian society: one main line is the use of ethnic minority troops in Ukraine. Many of these ethnic minorities are Muslim. The highest casualties in the war in Ukraine came from the Bashkirs and the Tatars for a long while; both Turkic Muslim minorities in russia, both with their republic, Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. Troops from Dagestan, a Caucasus republic, also feature high on casualty lists. Dagestan is multi-ethnic, but the vast majority of residents are Muslim.

Non-Slavic and Indigenous ethnic minority populations generally, from russia’s poorest regions have suffered a higher mortality rate than ethnic russians or residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Open-source data now highlights the following minorities as the highest casualties:

1. Buryats (Republic of Buryatia)

Ethnic Buryats drafted from Buryatia, next to Mongolia, now consistently register among the highest per-capita casualty rates in the war. Research using open-source obituary tracking found that men from Buryatia were dozens of times more likely to die in combat than men from Moscow.

2. Tuvans (Tuva Republic)

Also in Southern Siberia, bordering Mongolia is Tuva, the poorest and most economically isolated regions in the russian Federation. Tuvans currently have some of the highest mortality rates per 100,000 residents across the entire conflict.

3. North Caucasian Minorities (Dagestanis & Chechens)

Home to numerous Indigenous Caucasian ethnic groups (Avars, Dargins, Lezgins, Kumyks). Dagestan was among the first regions to log massive casualties early in the invasion due to the high proportion of active-duty contract soldiers recruited from the North Caucasus. Chechen units (both regular National Guard/Rosgvardiya and volunteer formations) have seen significant deployment and casualty rates throughout the conflict. These fighters are more often than not Muslim.

4. Bashkirs and Tatars (Volga Region)

From the Republic of Bashkortostan and Republic of Tatarstan, in absolute numbers of confirmed deaths by name, Bashkirs and Tatars routinely rank near the top among all russian federal subjects. Both republics formed multiple regional “volunteer(ed) battalions” that suffered heavy casualties on the frontlines. Both republics are predominantly Muslim.

5. Arctic and Far Northern Indigenous Peoples

Nenets, Chukchi, Yakuts +, indigenous northern groups experienced heavy mobilisation relative to their total numbers. Specialised units such as the Nenets Rifle Company, in the 200th Motor Rifle Brigade, led to severe losses.

Unrest

Unrest has been frequent over the past 30 years in Bashkortostan. Young men returning from Ukraine to the republic with experience in warfare plus bitterness of war is not some Putin really wants: accordingly, and in tradition of the best of Putinism, the killing of Bashkirs is something he favours. Chechens and Dagestanis have also suspect loyalties. They certainly have nothing in common with russians.

There area lot of differences in culture between the Bashkirs and Chechens or other North Caucasian peoples, but the Bashkirs, like the Chechens, have opposed russian rule these past decades. Chechens are not Turkic but some of their neighbours in the North Caucasus are. A Turkic ethnic group is not always Muslim, such as the Yakuts. Persian-related Ossetian speakers are also not Muslim.

The motive for a terrorist attack in Moscow

The sacrificing of an ethnic group, be it Bashkirs or Chechens etc. leads to vengeance, or an opportunity to renew independence attempts. Is there a possible revival of the North Caucasian Mountain Republic of just over a hundred years ago. Possibly among some, yes. Turkic language links in the area are to Crimean Tatar, incidentally, which is where ATESH first developed.

The timing of the supposed terrorist attack

Better now than later. The russian state is weak, the number of those killed in Ukraine terribly high. Now is the time to make independence bids, as a theory.

The group

Russia has the largest Muslim minority in Europe — if we must count russia as Europe. Most are Turkic ethnic groups, and make up the North Caucasus area. International terrorist groups would certainly be interested in getting the ex-Syrian dictator, Bassar Al-Assad, out of russia. A hostage-taking scenario might have been a step in that direction.

Ukrainian partisan groups have refrained from hitting civilian targets. All operations are against the russian military, or infrastructure supporting the military. Not only is it the ethos of the partisans; it is simply not efficient at all targeting civilians targets from the Ukrainian stand point.

Groups like ATESH state clearly they do not, and their members would not. Other groups such as the Freedom of russia Legion started out as a military unit and have now moved on to similar partisan activities as ATESH.

Black Spark, an anti-war russian insurgent group operating inside the russian Federation cooperates withUkraine's Special Operations Forces (SOF) to carry out sabotage against critical infrastructure, including an oil refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast. It would be uncharacteristic of the group to carry out a terrorist act against civilians.

Black Bridge is a russian partisan underground group opposed to Putin's regime. It supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and has claimed responsibility for partisan acts inside Russia, including sabotage against FSB infrastructure in Rostov-on-Don. It would again make little sense for them to modify their targeting, and motivation within the group to do this would be particularly low.

Specialist units such as Shaman Battalion and others from the Ukrainian Special Forces would not be engaging in such operations, in such a location.

What judge shall weigh
When homes are silenced
Who shall condemn
A needed response
To strike the foe from
Whence destruction comes?

Let no crown of virtue hide thy flame,
Nor noble cause make cruelty seem just;
For righteous war may yet incur its shame,
And vengeance turn our honour into dust.

Defend thy home, but let thou conscience speak:
The strong protect the helpless, not boost the weak.

In Germany clashes broke out during a youth demonstration in Hamburg. Protesters, many wearing masks, built barricades, set them on fire, and threw firecrackers and stones at the police, who responded by using pepper spray and water cannons.

It is not formed to decide whether any state or group is behind this protesting, or even if “protest” is the right word. My focus is on this absurd conspiracy echoes that bounce around Europe — to say nothing of the U.S.

Many across the European continent raise alarmed "concern” about the remilitarisation of Germany, while totally ignoring the obvious threat russia poses, and indeed the plight of Ukrainians. Many decry increased military spending in other European states, without ever discussing why this is happening.

Why it is so difficult to condemn russia is more than intriguing. Did we all fall for the russian ‘communist paradise’ trick? If so we are far from that, further than the Gulags in Siberia that Communist Moscow emptied so many prisoners into.

It is interesting that russia is allied to Iran, for both countries make a big deal of how different, fearless they are. For example Afghans are by nature a very peaceful folk, and generally cannot abide by violence or war. It is probably one reason why the Taliban had the easy success they did, even if others did not, like the British, for example. But in Iran they die by their word. In Russia they pretend to, but the word is slurred by years of vodka. One cannot underestimate the intricate part the drink has on russian culture, where it's commonly known as a medicine.

In most of Europe, all such talk of heroes is found in history now, or on Netflix, commercial Viking mythology, among others. The real world is found on the computer or TV screen, and time in-between is merely the intermission. Ukraine I there to be ignored, a useful tool for unscrupulous politicians to use about gas prices when they abysmal policies do not work.

In Ukraine strikes are increasing across the board. Russian drone and missile production are 24/7, often using African female labour, initially composed of women who thought they were going to technical college in russia.

Bakhmut 2023—how the war is different now

Cold concrete grit, burnt cordite, wet plaster, pulverized brick. Shattered doorway, thrum of heavy artillery, everything rattles, again, again, the endless rhythm. The endless meat grinder, a hollowed-out skull of a town, grey dust falling over ruins. Through the splintered window frame, here they come again.

Out of the frozen mist, figures moving. Not running, not ducking, just walking straight into the open kill zone. Zombified, veins full. First wave. Ex-cons, mercenaries, sand against a stone wall to reveal our firing positions. Tap, tap, tap—barrel glowing red-hot, brass shells raining onto wet dirt floor.

CRACK. BOOM—ceiling plaster chokes, ears ringing high-pitched frequency, static in the brain. Wipe the gray grime, slot a fresh magazine. The horizon is a nightmare of twitching silhouettes, stumbling. They don't even check for tripwires. They don'take cover. Fingers freeze on the triggers. Hold the line.

There will never be another battle like Bakhmut. There will never be another battle like Bakhmut, because drone warfare has taken over. Because I f drone warfare, the mid to large ones, russian troops are able to build a large new military base in Leningrad without alerting NATO too much, because the number of troops amassed are not early enough for an invasion.

They will not invade. It is the hundreds, the thousands of drones that will come. Slowly at first, the odd, erra not drone, then others, a few killed, then more. And finally the waves will start.

NATO will discuss whether it is alright to shoot them down, or let them go, in the mistaken belief that they will head back across the border into Ukraine and kill there—as they have long been doing (rather disgracefully).

But slowly, then suddenly, the sheet volume of Shaheds and Geran drones sweeping into Latvia, or Estonia, Lithuania will force NATO to use planes to shoot them down—and beg Ukraine for interceptor rockets they should have purchased a long time ago.

About 1/4 to 1/3 of the population of Latvia will leave, seeking refugee status in Europe. The rest will experience a new existence; of living in a war zone.

NATO will not be able to conduct an assault on russian troops because there will be none. NATO planes will not be given authorisation to fly over russian or Belarusan territory, and the first missiles finally fired that hit populated areas in russia will be met by outrage by the Kremlin, who are protecting russian minorities being badly treated in Estonia and Latvia after all.

Where these minorities will stand is not completely clear. If russian troops do enter Narva in Estonia, or Daugaspils in Latvia, both cities on the border with russia and universally russian-speaking, it is not clear they will be seen as the enemy by everyone.

My experience of russian inhabitants of both countries is mixed, and when it is negative, it is very, very negative. Many live a schizophrenic existence, refusing to learn Estonian or Latvian, thumping their chests and declaring themselves russian after a few vodkas, yet fully benefitting from a standard of living that keeps them there instead of moving to russia.

When it comes to it, many will probably take up arms against the Baltic States: in both Estonia and Latvia when city councils of Tallinn and Riga decided to move statues to the fallen russian troops of WWII to new locations, the cities erupted into riots by russian residents.

Friends of mine in the Estonian armed forces received texts telling them not to go near the streets of Tallinn to protect property or take on the rioters: Russia was waiting for a pretext to invade and had jammed the internet in Estonia in preparation.

Riga is a wonderful city, with a great market. But steer well clear of the russian hawkers who play various goods outside the main halls, they are bad news.

Similarly, the russian minority in Tallinn control the drug trade, making it one of the capitals in Europe with the biggest drug problems, albeit largely among the russian population.

Today’s Attacks

Two recently killed in Vinnitsia, in Western Ukraine, under intensive russian bombardment today, including a teenage girl. More will be coming later. Yes, Ukraine targeted attacks are hurting the russian effort at genocide, but the insistence of too many other countries to trade with Moscow are undermining this.

Oops, here we go again

Today at 07:00, about 9,300 polling stations opened in Bulgaria; they will operate until 20:00. Another 613 polling stations opened abroad. Over 6.5 million Bulgarians are eligible to vote.

The first round took place on October 25. At that time, slightly more than 22% of voters cast ballots — a record and troubling low turnout in Bulgaria. No candidate secured enough support to win. Yotova received 34.75% of the vote, and Gyurov 31.95%.

Gyurov holds a clear pro-Western position and supports Ukraine. In particular, in March, during a visit to Kyiv, he signed a security agreement between Bulgaria and Ukraine with Volodymyr Zelensky.

Iliana Yotova, who has led the country since Rumen Radev's resignation in January, does not support military aid to Ukraine and advocates an immediate ceasefire. At the same time, she does not directly criticise russia for its aggression.

What the fuck is this “immediate ceasefire” crap we keep getting from various politicians and governments in Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Austria, Italy, France & Germany? In Hungary it is also tied to blocking Ukraine’s entry into the EU and quest for further EU funds. It also guarantees governments spouting this fantasy will not be aiding Ukraine.

Pathetic stuff from under the umbrella of NATO, and quite irresponsible. We may be in for a rough ride if Alice Weidel's AfD win elections in Germany, and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally win in France next Spring, which they are currently favourites to do.

Already the U.S. has done much more damage than it can hope to back away from easily, but this could be bonanza time for Trump. How much further can he go into the arms of the Kremlin? I do not even dare really ask.

The Damage Done: Possible Next Steps in this Murderous War was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Blood has scattered far again in Ukraine, in a world that is too busy to make a stand, or if they do, it is often a few lines somewhere on social media. I have seen the faces of those thirteen killed today in Dnipro, and first, as a father, I am focusing on two murdered in Chernihiv, in a short versed eulogy.

Yana and Maria

It has been only a few hours
Since the bombs fell
Their spirits sky above now
They star the night, they peace the dark
They eternity our love

Every night dawn's it's pain
Tomorrow will mourn in waves
Birthed once more, but not in vain
For in memory we must stand
To fight in their name

Two things happened almost at the same time today: 13 civilians innocent human beings were killed when a Russian drone struck a railway platform in Dnipro as a train to Zaporizhzhia stood there, plus two girls were killed in Chernihiv, and Britain has announced its largest ever single financial support package to Ukraine, pledging an additional £10 billion in military and economic assistance.

Money is not enough

A few decades ago I was very interested in the work of Edward de Bono. One concept I researched was the idea of his of taking two separate items, notions, objects or thoughts and colliding them together to see what is created (I am heavily summarising).

On the face of it, Russia's truly evil, barbarous and senseless murder at Dnipro train station and Chernihiv, and Britain sending its largest aid package do not have any immediate connections. Don’t get me wrong, but these knee-jerk donations only go so far; they do not resolve. It is almost as if we have got into a rut with this funding, by ‘we’ I mean Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Holland, Britain, the Baltic States, Germany and France.

A huge gap has opened, that of the situation now, and where we would like to be, which is establishing the presence of troops by the “Coalition of the Willing" on the ground in Ukraine, in order to monitor a ceasefire or a peace.

How are we going to close the gap, purely by donating? Clearly not

The package includes urgent air defense funding to counter russian attacks this winter, as well as guarantees to sustain essential services and strengthen Ukraine’s economy. But we desperately need to start taking tangible steps to take us from where we are, to where we want to be.

We want to be the Coalition of the Willing, with troops monitoring peace on the territory of Ukraine. All of our policies, however, are that of the Coalition of the wishful-thinking.

If we seriously plan to have troops in Ukraine, we must take steps to get there

We are currently not providing any deterrent to Putin. We need combat medics on the ground in different locations in (western) Ukraine to provide much need medical training, and we need exclusion zones where they can be based, zones patrolled by aircraft and bordering on Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania — even if the Hungarian and Slovak governments complain.

Sending financial packages to Ukraine are supportive, and vital lifelines, but the support is carried out in order to keep the war in Ukraine and not let it spill out, over the borders into NATO territory. So l et’s not pretend these are purely magnamonous measures.

Doing the same again and again is not swinging the war into Ukraine’s favour — proper sanctions might, but we are nowhere near there, and the governments of United States, Ireland, Slovakia, Hungary and Belgium among others are routinely breaking these sanctions.

The governments of Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia & the US give absolutely no aid to Ukraine

They may soon be joined by France and Germany if the extreme right get heir say. Already much of Europe contributes little. These facts alone warrant action by NATO, and the sending of medics into Ukraine in order to carry out much-needed training duties. The exclusion zone would mean EU nations forced to contribute their air forces. In various circles this will be called ‘escalation.’ So be it. Putin is doing what he wants in Ukraine, without any fear of reprisal in the slightest.

A mass murder in Dnipro, plus two innocent souls taken in Chernihiv deserves more from the international community

In Chernihiv father’s anguish can be watched discovering his fifteen year old daughter has been killed. For what possible reason is it good that this video is shared?

It is all over my social media. Why do those sharing the video inform people they must not “look away?”

What gives you, the sharer, the moral authority to issue such instructions?

You are sharing on social media for goodness sake ( a number of sites), to people already concerned about the Ukraine war. You know full well that nothing will change from your exposing the grief.

Do those sharing the video not realize they are doing exactly what russia wants them to do? Do you think russia wants their war crimes hidden? Far from it! You are doing Putin’s work for them, free. If videos of beheadings, were not shared, would the russians have more, or less incentive to carry out these war crimes?

Where, in the name of humanity, is your respect for the father, who has his utter distress magnified, recopied, again and again in an orgy of mass voyeurism?

The English language is powerful enough to describe the events without a voyeuristic video. In fact arguably thoughts expressed carry more sincere outrage. This is not about censorship.

What right do you sharers have the right to publicly air this father's dire grief?

I am truly troubled by how this compares to the baying crowds of the colosseum.

How can sharers not see they are working for Putin’s PR?

During the recent conversation with the leaders of Finland and Norway, Putin lectured them on his version of Slavic history and did not discuss the prospect of an immediate ceasefire at all, sources report.

As Finnish President Alexander Stubb recounted, the conversation was supposed to last less than 30 minutes but kept dragging on, as a monologue, for 90 minutes.

According to the journalists' sources, Putin did not want to discuss the key issues of ending the war in Ukraine; instead, delivering his stupid, long speech about the so-called "root causes of the war."

In this mode the monotone Putin echoes all dictators who seek justification for their ideology, including Hitler. As always for those who listen to him, his argument is a populist one drawing heavily on opinion, his, at the expense of fact, at the most basic of levels. Putin also routinely sees conspiracy when there is one — and has used such theories in previous expansionism in Chechnya, Georgia twice, in threats against Armenia and Kazakhstan, and in Ukraine.

If he is still in power, he will very probably move to incorporate areas of Northern Kazakhstan into Russia, in my studied opinion, as well as Armenia should they continue in the quest to join the EU.

He blew it with the Baltic States, but may attempt to incorporate Lithuania, in order to bridge the Suwalki Gap, or Latvia, to “split” the Baltics, or Estonia.

He will not conduct a mass invasion, but rather step up drone operations in the republics. Of course this could spill over into Finland or Poland. He would probably test their resolve in this direction anyway, and fatally pull them into the war. He certainly feels all of these states should be part of Russia, and his approach to doing this is killing as many of the inhabitants of these countries and looting as much as possible.

Why would Russia need more territory? That is a question to which I have no definite answer. However, a few facts are pertinent:

• Putin comes from an era where expansion was doctrinal under communism.
• Previous incarnations of russia, in which they saw themselves as the “3rd Rome” (they still do) gave them, they feel, a moral authority for expansion. The russian brand of Christianity also serves this purpose.
• Putin’s popularity increases dramatically every time he launches another attack against a neighbour.
• Russia’s empire was always on territory around them, unlike other nations which had empires overseas, and russia has not moved on (at all) from this empirical mode.
• Putin has a deep-rooted chip on his shoulder, and as head of the FSB his agenda is automatically one of conflict (and graft).
• Russia also operates in this same mode inside the federation against its minorities.

At the dVerse site the concept of verbification is discussed (by Björn). Writers and poets immediately will find this challenging concept useful and illuminating. I have used a bit in the eulogy for Yana and Maria.

Two Teenage Girls Taken was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

You wake up with a bang! You get ready for work anyway, briefly opening the window to see if the air is ok to breathe. You smell that acrid odour, part gunpowder, part chemical. You close the window, get dressed. On the way out you see your car has been hit. It does not particularly matter for now, because you cannot drive across any bridge, and are accordingly walking to work. It will take two hours.

Already the Ukrainian military is selecting river crossing points you hear. That may cut the long walk over the bridge, and it is certainly safer.

Why did the russian monsters target a car? Who knows. Either they missed their target, or that was their target. The result is you no longer have a car.

You pass familiar scenes: people being rushed to hospital. At these crucial moments, a second strike often comes, and you scan the skies as you walk.

It is cold, but it is going to get much, much colder. At least then when crossing the Dnieper, the big, wide Dnieper you might not need to wait for a ferry, as the ice will be strong enough.

Further south east, the evacuations are ongoing, from Kramatorsk and surrounding towns; agencies working on shoestring budgets. It is not only people. In urgent evacuations there are times when it is difficult to take pets, but forget the russian horde looking after them kindle: the stories are horrendous, and part of the “psychological warfare” the russians like to play.

Even in normal evacuations it is better to use groups who know what they are doing, and even in the turmoil of war there are laws. You cannot simply cram into a car holding a couple of large dogs. Cars mean seatbelts, and dogs do not do seatbelts, plus every place is precious.

In the latest evacuation, the personnel of Aid Ukraine UK took live rounds. By that I mean they were hit by gunfire. I cannot post photos of the vehicle and brave volunteers, for what I hope are obvious reasons — there are many eyes in the sky.

Loaded for the journey…often a perilous one, driven at high speed back to safety…for now. Important work that the bravest volunteers are carrying out every day..

In the first couple of years of the war there were a lot of scammers, and a lot of money was taken — no, the scammers were not Ukrainian, they came from far and wide, or often did not come but pretended to be in Ukraine.

But the amount of men in bars in Kyiv telling people they were here “training Ukrainians but they could not talk about it…you know, nudge nudge wink wink and can you buy me a beer,” while trying to pick up local Ukrainian women with promises and lies, well, it was getting obscene.

This seems to have changed, and most charities run tight operations. No more western heroes driving across country to deliver a few armoured plates are needed, staying in luxury hotels and videoing themselves looking tense as they stared at the ceiling in the “bomb raid.”

Nowadays everyone uses Nova Posta—cheaper, easier, and much more efficient for deliveries…even with the bombs their centres are taking. But Nova Posta is not for delivering drones to the front lines, or evacuation, and there are some very brave people out there from Britain, Poland, the US, Estonia, Canada, France, Spain, Lithuania, Germany and other countries who are saving lives every day, human and pet ones.

In many cities volunteers from Ukraine and abroad supply food to those who don’t have the means to have enough, as well as hospitals of various kinds.

Edward Wilton, from Florida coordinates one such kitchen. His son fell in battle in 2023, and he is taking on the relay: an official certificate to his son hangs from the wall, and in Eastern Ukraine a small monument by accident been erected in his honour.

The kitchen where Edward works is not without it's controversies: the British person in charge is extremely autocratic, firing volumteers at will, including her American right hand man, much to his surprise. This is another side of the war that is difficult to control. Like every war, this war attracts all kinds, and generally the very bad or very good.

I feel for Edward. His family have Ukrainian blood, so he went home in many respects when he went to Kharkiv, but people like him are the unsung heroes.

There are always moral dilemmas, Ukrainian or foreign; the gambler, who spent money instead of providing for his family, or the drinker, who suddenly carries out heroic acts on the front line. For them, perhaps, the war is a form of redemption. Some say” yes but…” I am unable to judge. And if I did I would still find those foreigners hanging around bars pretending to participate in the war much worse. Not just the men, either; a woman from Sweden in Kyiv was constantly “borrowing” money and seeking online donations in the first year of the war, telling all she was a member of the Georgian Legion. She absconded with a large amount of cash and never settled her rent, leaving her newly widowed landowner penniless.

Others arrived in Ukraine and committed nefarious crimes of all types, stealing was the most common in the first days of the International Legions, before quite a few were weeded out. There was something else that happened now and then, and Swiss model Beatrice Kolle reminded me of it recently, announcing in the press that Donald Trump has raped her years ago. According to her testimony, he raped her in November 1993 at the Plaza Hotel in New York, during a beauty pageant he organised. Prior to this, he had promised her a US visa and a place at a university.

And hello, Jeffrey Epstein, who introduced himself to her as ‘Don's best friend ’, was also present at the pageant. The model claims that after the incident, Trump forced her to keep quiet.

The allegations feature in a new report by the Democrats on the US House of Representatives Judiciary Committee. The document compiles testimonies from 11 women, 5 of whom accuse Trump of rape or sexual harassment. Koyle had previously spoken of kisses and unwanted touching by Trump, but has only now publicly proposed rape. She explained this was due to fears stemming from threats and pressure.

Probably a very good thing he never made it to Kyiv, but of course he didn’t. This buffoon, with a history of illegal activities spanning decades, a scammer who by nature would not have lasted in the tense atmosphere of the war. No way, better to make his idiotic, rude and unpleasant “announcements ”…well, lies — from afar.

As for the unsung heroes, they will be out again tomorrow, driving very close to the front to evacuate pets and people. Others will be slaving in kitchens cooking food, and others supplying troops with warm clothing, camouflage netting or other needs. The work never stops — except in a tragic way: Jesse Adams, a Canadian volunteer, was killed during a drone attack as he was rescuing animals in Kramatorsk. The attack set the car and the shelter on fire. Some animals escaped and others were rescued by the brave Emergency Services team of the city.

Through RainCoast Dog Rescue, which he co-founded in 2014, Jesse Adams travelled across Canada and around the world rescuing animals, working with Indigenous communities and helping animals that others might have given up on. His cousin Patenaude, speaking to media, said. “He even helped rescue nine lions from Ukraine.”

Jesse was a reservist in the Canadian Armed Forces, and volunteered in Ukraine on several occasions, “He wasn’t someone who could just sit back when he knew there were animals or people suffering,” he said. “He dedicated his life to making a difference, not because he wanted recognition, but because he genuinely cared,” Patenaude related.

On Friday, Adams posted on social media that he was helping Animal Rescue Kharkiv to evacuate five cattle, one pig, two dogs and six cats from an outlying village near Kramatorsk under the evacuation order.

He wrote that the owners had refused to leave “this very dangerous area” that was being hit with drones, bombs and missiles every day until they knew their animals could be relocated to a safer place in Ukraine, and said that he dodged drones, missiles and bombs as they got the animals to safety.

“When we arrived and started to load the animals in the van and trailer, a drone had hit a house just down the road from us, and another had flown right over top of us, as we moved to find cover. Thankfully, we were not chosen as a target in this moment.”

The day Jesse Adams went out on his rescue mission in the village, the russian military fired on 16 civilian targets in Kramatorsk from 4 a.m. to 11:30 p.m., according to local officials.

You will always be part of Ukraine, Jesse mate. You will always be there, in everyone’s thoughts. You did all you could. Bless you, brother.

Evacuations, False Pretenses and an Elusive Peace: Ukraine at War was originally published in Dispatches on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.