Interior designer Christopher Grubb shares strategies for cultivating winning relationships with clients and other professionals.

By Dianne M. Pogoda

“The relationship is everything.”

This was the main message from Christopher Grubb, an award-winning interior designer who addressed NKBA’s Northern New Jersey chapter at its October meeting. Grubb focused on the role of the designer in the renovation process, how it relates to client and contractor, and outlined strategies for keeping communication flowing smoothly — and amicably — among all parties.

He also dispelled the commonly held misconception among consumers that designers are too expensive, by showing how they can actually save money in the renovation process.

“Designers quarterback the project,” said Grubb, president and founder of Beverly Hills-based Arch-Interiors Design Group. “We often act as the homeowner’s therapist. And because designers speak the same professional language as the remodeler, designers act as a buffer between client and contractor.”

The meeting was a joint event between the NKBANNJ chapter and Builders and Remodelers of Northern New Jersey (BRANNJ) and took place at the adjoining showrooms of sponsors Wayne Tile and Ferguson Kitchen, Bath and Lighting Gallery in Ramsey, N.J. About 100 guests nibbled on hors d’oeuvres and cocktails, followed by a buffet dinner.

In his presentation, “Designers, Contractors and Architects: Partnerships in Profitable Collaborations,” Grubb touched on many aspects of the job from a functional or technical perspective, like keeping the project moving, staying within budget, documenting the design via very specific drawings, and participating in the bid and negotiation process — and making sure the client understands all of it.

But perhaps the most important contribution a designer can make is providing emotional support to the client.

Alleviating client frustration is one of the key roles of the designer.

“Contractors aren’t designers — and most don’t want to be,” said Grubb, who also designs custom home and bath furnishings under the Autograph and C.G. Collection labels. “Most contractors don’t want to go to a showroom for eight hours and pick out plumbing fixtures or pore over tile and other decorative materials. That’s one way designers fill this need for the homeowner.”

He continued, “Designers also can explain the impact of change orders to the client,” noting that even when the changes come from the homeowners, they often don’t realize the delays or potential budget spikes these alterations can cause. “The cost of a designer’s fee can be minimal compared to the cost of change orders resulting from miscommunication. That’s why nothing goes in the final bid that’s not specified and completely understood by the client. Have every finish called out, detailed, and know the lead time.”

Grubb also outlined several key strategies for designers as well as contractors to build and market their businesses, and how to leverage each other for future referrals and jobs.

Contractors, he advised, should do a little homework on the design firm and be familiar with its work.

“Have a great portfolio and take good photos,” he noted. “Visuals are everything. If you’re a contractor approaching a designer, don’t simply ask whether there are any projects you can bid on. Rather, ask to set up an interview to determine whether working together will be a good fit. Once you bid, if you don’t get the job, follow up to see what was off in your bid — that’s how you build a relationship. And finally, don’t forget to send a little thank-you gift for the interview or the opportunity to bid on a job — with a hand-written note. Even if the current job doesn’t work out, you’ve started a relationship and the designer might think of you next time. There is a great deal of faith on the part of the client when we recommend a contractor.”

He recommended that designers always mention the contractors in any marketing effort, such as publicizing an award for a signature project, or if a magazine profiles a design.

“You can share in the photography cost and focus on the parts of the project that show off your work best,” he said.

Other publicity strategies include entering competitions, contributing to local newspapers, magazines or blogs; volunteer to talk on local TV or radio shows, lecture in local schools, meetings of civic associations, retailers’ events, etc.

Finally, returning to the client relationship, he emphasized, “Just like in life, reputation is everything. An unhappy client will not be a referral, and in fact can be a detriment. Customer service and communication are paramount for success, as is a positive attitude.

“We tell our clients we know this is a stressful process, but we are creating your dream. It’s a little interruption, but will give you years of enjoyment and we want to make sure you are happy.”

The Collaboration Key was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

The economy added 261,000 jobs in October, partly compensating for the poor performance of the previous month, when both Texas and Florida were reeling from the impact of the two deadly hurricanes, Harvey and Irma. Last month, the Department of Labor had estimated job growth in September to be 33,000. This figure, however, was lowered to just 18,000 in the latest estimate for that month.

Nonetheless, the average for the two months, September and October, is only 140,000 jobs, lower than the growth we’ve seen over the last 12 months (shown by the red line in the chart above)

Year-to-date through October, we have seen the creation of 1.69 million jobs. This is 12% fewer jobs than those created during similar period last year.

At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since the beginning of the century. Virtually anybody who wants a job should be able to get one. But there are still a large number of people who, for one reason or another, stay away from the labor force. This is highlighted by the “labor force participation rate” that fell in October to 62.7%, near the lowest point in more than 20 years.

A paradox is that the low unemployment rate should put pressure on wages, as employers fight to hire among the smaller pool of available workers. But the average wage rate was only 2.4% higher in October than what it was a year ago; this is barely higher than the 2.2% increase in prices over the last 12 months. Workers are not seeing great improvement in their financial situation.

In contrast to the overall employment data, the remodeling industry saw robust employment growth in September. A total of 900 jobs were added by employers in remodeling firms for a total of 335,500 persons employed in the industry.

The line in the chart below shows monthly employment in remodeling businesses for the last 13 months. The bars indicate the monthly increase (light gray) or decrease (red) in employment for that month.

Despite the increase in the number of remodeling jobs, we find that homeowners’ spending for remodeling projects actually fell in September, by 0.6% to an annual rate of $187.9 billion. In fact, as can be seen in the chart below, remodeling spending reached a peak of $193.3 billion back in June, and it has fallen in two out of the last three months.

The rate of spending on remodeling has thus slowed for the last three months. Still, total spending for the year is running nearly 20% higher than last year. Through September of this year, homeowners have spent $143.8 billion on remodeling their homes, up 19% over the $121.2 billion spent between January and September of 2016.

House prices are still increasing at vigorous rates; in September they were 4.2% above last year. These price gains translate into higher equity for homeowners that has led many to take some out some of that equity and use it for a variety of purposes, including home remodeling.

Additionally, mortgage rates remained unchanged at 3.94% last week. There we no significant changes in either demand or supply of credit to the mortgage markets.

Moreover, President Trump’s appointment of Jerome Powell to become the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank next February implies that the current monetary policies will be the standard for the next few years. The expectation of most economists is that Powell will continue pursuing the same policies followed by current Fed chair Janet Yellen. That is, there will not be a sharp change from relative ease to more tightening.

Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA

Explanation of NKBA’s Economic Indicators Dashboard

The dashboard displays the latest value of each economic indicator with a colored triangle that highlights visually the recent trend for each of the drivers. “Green” is a positive signal, indicating that the latest value is improving; “Yellow,” as it’s commonly understood, denotes caution because the variable may be changing direction; “Red” indicates that the variable in question is declining, both in its current value and in relation to the recent past.

Note that all the data, except for “mortgage rate” and “appliance-store sales” are seasonally adjusted and are represented at annual rates.

Remodeling Expenditures. This is the amount of money spent on home improvement projects during the month in question. It covers all work done for privately owned homes (excludes rentals, etc.). The data are in billions of dollars and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Single-Family Starts. This is the number of single-family houses for which construction was started in the given month. The data are in thousands of houses and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Existing-Home Sales. These data are issued monthly by the National Association of Realtors, and capture the number of existing homes that were sold in the previous month.

High-End Home Sales. This series are sales of new homes priced at $750,000 and higher. The data are released quarterly by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are not seasonally adjusted. Thus, a valid comparison is made to the same quarter of prior year.

Mortgage Rate. We have chosen the rate on 30-year conventional loans that is issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (known popularly as Freddie Mac.) Although there are a large number of mortgage instruments available to consumers, this one is still the most commonly used.

Employees in Residential Remodeling. This indicator denotes the number of individuals employed in construction firms that do mostly residential remodeling work.

Building-Materials Sales. These data, released monthly by the Department of Commerce, capture total sales of building materials, regardless of whether consumers or contractors purchased them. However, we should caution that the data also includes sales to projects other than residential houses.

Appliance-Store Sales. This driver captures the monthly sales of stores that sell mostly household appliances; the data are stated at an annual rate. We should not confuse this driver with total appliance sales, since they are sold by other types of stores such as home centers, for instance.

We hope that you find this dashboard useful as a general guide to the state of our industry. Please contact us if you would like to see further detail.

Economic Indicators: 11/9/17 was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Two Colorado women earned top prizes in The National Kitchen & Bath Association’s annual Student Design Competition, which was themed around Universal Design and incorporated the landscapes, colors and vistas around Chattanooga, Tenn., in creating plans for a local kitchen and bath renovation.

Deseray Mann, who graduated in May from Front Range Community College in Fort Collins, Colo., took home top honors for her kitchen design, while Joan Marks, who earned her kitchen and bath certificate this summer from Arapahoe Community College in Littleton, Colo., won first place in the bath competition.

The assignment was “Smart Design for Active Seniors,” a remodel of a kitchen with a dining nook and master bathroom for King and Selina Duncan, a retired couple in their 70s, who recently downsized and moved into the single-story home. While still active, the couple wanted the space to be one in which they could “age in place,” so the aspiring designers followed the principles of universal design to accommodate current and future needs, regardless of physical abilities.

More than 200 students from 26 colleges submitted entries for the competition, which was sponsored by Waypoint Living Spaces, a custom cabinet brand and division of American Woodmark.

“Waypoint is proud to support design education, as it is the key to building a healthy industry for the future,” said Jennifer LeMarr, CKBD, CLIPP, for Waypoint Living Spaces. “It’s great to see such talent developing, and that young, aspiring designers understand the complexities of accessible design for Aging in Place needs.”

“We were blown away by the detail of these plans,” said David H. Newton, CMKBD, CLIPP, a consultant, author and trainer in kitchen and bath design and owner of David Newton Associates, Knoxville, Tenn. Newton judged the contest with Peter Albanese, CKD, CBD, owner of Creative Kitchen and Bath in Wayne, NJ.

“Rarely is a student plan so detailed. It shows that the colleges are really preparing the students well,” Newton added, “and students are preparing plans that can actually be used in the field.”

The Kitchen

The focal point of Mann’s design is a soaring chimney-like element over an arched cut-out surrounding the stovetop, rising to the 15-foot ceiling. She used split-face ledger stone in cream and brown tones to complement the rest of the color scheme.

“I like to pick a central idea and build around that,” Mann said. “It makes the whole space cohesive.”

The dining nook is a one end of the space, which is approximately 21 feet long, with a U-shaped working area, anchored by the stonework over the stove.

“The color palette makes a connection with the surroundings without overwhelming the space,” Mann explained. “It was a challenge to blend all the color combinations to find a happy balance between the lighter table and the rich brown and red hues in the cabinetry, but we tied it together with the lighter stone and tile selections.”

Mann currently works as a kitchen and bath designer with Springhaus Interiors in Timnath, Colo.

The Bath

For her winning master bath design, Marks drew inspiration from the architectural details of the landmark Veterans Bridge in Chattanooga.

“I wanted to find something local to the area, and when I saw this picture of the bridge, I thought I’d be able to incorporate some of its elements into the design,” said Marks.

The bridge’s repeating arches translated to curved ceiling details over the vanity and shower/tub areas, and a garden trellis pattern on the bridge handrails was the basis for the tile design. Gothic mullion transom windows also mimic the architectural style of the bridge handrails.

Marks also reconfigured the floorplan of the bath to be able to accommodate wheelchairs or walkers, should the need arise in the future.

“The designer swapped the toilet and shower areas and created a nice shower and tub space, a separate toilet compartment and good storage,” Newton said. “In paying close attention to the clients’ needs, she created a really roomy space.

“These designers showed an excellent knowledge of electrical codes and the mechanical plan,” he added, noting that’s not always the case with the students. “For instance, if we see that electrical outlets are within reach of the shower, we eliminate the design. These designs really followed NKBA standards and met the client requirements.”

Mann and Marks each receive a $2,500 scholarship award for their first-place designs, as well as a trip to KBIS in January.

The following student-designers earned runner-up honors in the 2017 competition. The second- and third-place winners each get a trip to KBIS; second-place earns a $1,500 scholarship, and third-place wins a $1,000 scholarship.

KITCHEN

2nd Place Sarah Elizabeth Cummins, University of Georgia, Athens., Ga.

3rd Place Jennifer Allen, Front Range Community College, Fort Collins, Colo.

Honorable Mention Megan Gerling, Lakeland College, Vermilion, Alberta

Honorable Mention Stephany Taylor Krupke, Century College, White Bear, Minn.

BATH

2nd Place Hailey Kaspick, Lakeland College, Vermilion, Alberta

3rd Place Brooklyn Gogowich, Lakeland College, Vermilion, Alberta

Honorable Mention Erica Eftodie, Lakeland College, Vermilion, Alberta

Honorable Mention Melissa Lamons, St. Louis Community College, Kirkwood, Mo.

Honorable Mention Natasha Chayhowski, Lakeland College, Vermilion, Alberta

NKBA HONORS WINNERS OF 2017 STUDENT DESIGN COMPETITION was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Last week brought forth a variety of economic data that, for a change, were mostly favorable. For instance, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew by a robust 3% in the third quarter. This follows a similar pace of growth in the second quarter, when GDP rose by a rate of 3.1%.

As is indicated in the chart above, growth has exceeded 3% for two consecutive quarters. It is approaching the long-term average of 3.3% and is tracking much higher than the 2.1% average growth rate recorded since the end of the 2007–2009 recession.

More importantly for the economy’s future growth, business investment grew sharply in the third quarter. After several quarters of negligible growth, or even declines, business investment has risen in the last two quarters.

Furthermore, one of the components of investment — investment in equipment — has approached 9% in each of the last two quarters. Investment in equipment is critical in driving the growth in productivity that leads to higher wages.

Closer to home, sales of new as well as existing homes rose in September. New home sales rose by an unusually high 19% to an annual rate of 667,000 units — the highest level in a decade.

Given the low inventory of new homes on the market, it’s not surprising to find that the number of new homes sold but whose construction hasn’t started jumped by 44% in the month. That is, the largest proportion of new home sales have not been built yet, but are already under contract.

A similar picture emerges when considering sales of new “high-end” homes, that is those valued at a minimum of $500,000. A total of 25,000 new homes at this price range were sold in the 3rd quarter, up 4% from the same quarter of 2016. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so a comparison with Q2 is invalid.)

Also, year-to-date through the 3rd quarter, a total of 80,000 new high-end homes were sold, up 13% from the same period last year.

On the existing homes market, sales also rose in September, although by a nearly negligible 0.7%, reaching an annual growth rate of 5.39 million units. But this gain reverses declines in the preceding three months.

The small increase in sales of existing homes is attributable to the impact of the hurricanes that hit Florida and Texas. Home prices are up 4.2% for the 12 months ending in September.

Mortgage rates continue to rise, albeit slowly. Last week they were 3.94%, matching the value of three months ago.

As previously indicated, these increases are not yet sufficient to put a dent in the potential growth of home sales. But if they continue, as it’s expected, they could start to impede further growth. To a great degree, it depends on the appointment of the Federal Reserve Bank’s new chairman next February.

Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA

Explanation of NKBA’s Economic Indicators Dashboard

The dashboard displays the latest value of each economic indicator with a colored triangle that highlights visually the recent trend for each of the drivers. “Green” is a positive signal, indicating that the latest value is improving; “Yellow,” as it’s commonly understood, denotes caution because the variable may be changing direction; “Red” indicates that the variable in question is declining, both in its current value and in relation to the recent past.

Note that all the data, except for “mortgage rate” and “appliance-store sales” are seasonally adjusted and are represented at annual rates.

Remodeling Expenditures. This is the amount of money spent on home improvement projects during the month in question. It covers all work done for privately owned homes (excludes rentals, etc.). The data are in billions of dollars and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Single-Family Starts. This is the number of single-family houses for which construction was started in the given month. The data are in thousands of houses and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Existing-Home Sales. These data are issued monthly by the National Association of Realtors, and capture the number of existing homes that were sold in the previous month.

High-End Home Sales. This series are sales of new homes priced at $750,000 and higher. The data are released quarterly by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are not seasonally adjusted. Thus, a valid comparison is made to the same quarter of prior year.

Mortgage Rate. We have chosen the rate on 30-year conventional loans that is issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (known popularly as Freddie Mac.) Although there are a large number of mortgage instruments available to consumers, this one is still the most commonly used.

Employees in Residential Remodeling. This indicator denotes the number of individuals employed in construction firms that do mostly residential remodeling work.

Building-Materials Sales. These data, released monthly by the Department of Commerce, capture total sales of building materials, regardless of whether consumers or contractors purchased them. However, we should caution that the data also includes sales to projects other than residential houses.

Appliance-Store Sales. This driver captures the monthly sales of stores that sell mostly household appliances; the data are stated at an annual rate. We should not confuse this driver with total appliance sales, since they are sold by other types of stores such as home centers, for instance.

We hope that you find this dashboard useful as a general guide to the state of our industry. Please contact us if you would like to see further detail.

Economic Indicators: 11/2/17 was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

By Dianne M. Pogoda

Great ideas don’t mean a lot if designers can’t communicate them to the remodelers who must execute them or to homeowners, so November’s course theme is centered on elements of drafting and presentation standards.

NKBA is offering three introductory-level classes in the Design & Inspiration series this month, as well as continuing with the bath portion of the Certified Kitchen and Bath Designer exam prep. (The kitchen portion took place in October.)

The first class, “Design Unplugged — Creativity and Collaboration from Anywhere!” will help designers to work efficiently and effectively from almost anywhere, collaborating with other professionals no matter where anyone is located. This webinar begins at 12 noon (Eastern Time) on Nov. 2 and offers 0.1 CEU. It’s a free course presented by Vanessa DeKoekkoek, global training manager for 2020 Technologies, a software developer that helps professional designers, retailers and manufacturers in the interior design and furniture industries capture ideas, inspire innovation and streamline processes. 2020 applications allow professional designers to create kitchens, bathrooms, closets and commercial offices that look as good on the screen as they do in reality.

In this class, DeKoekkoek will explore the design process and highlight areas in which designers can improve by expanding their technology tool-sets. Most of the tools in question are cloud-based and available to anyone.

At the end of this session, students will be able to describe and understand fundamental concepts behind virtual collaboration; learn how to engage clients in methods to which they can relate within the design environment, and develop and learn to share design concepts anytime, anywhere.

The second course, “Presentation Standards I,” is a three-day webinar taught by David Newton, CMKBD, running on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, Nov. 7, 9 and 10, for two hours each day (1 to 3 p.m., Eastern Time). It offers 0.6 NKBA CEUs and 6 education hours, and the course fee for NKBA members is $179, and $219 for non-members.

The webinar describes the most common project documents used in the kitchen and bath industry today, tells participants how to prepare them, offers suggestions on presenting designs, and covers the NKBA’s Graphics and Presentation Standards to guide drawing practice.

Project documents, plans, and drawings form the basis of communication within the kitchen and bath profession, as well as throughout the building industry. They detail the designer’s vision of a project and are used to communicate a variety of details to everyone involved in the job.

At the end of this course, participants will be able to discuss the purpose of the NKBA Graphics and Presentation Standards; list the steps to accurately measure a design space; apply hand-drafting techniques to floor plans, mechanical plans and construction plans, and use common kitchen and bathroom project documents to complete those plans.

It requires that participants have the Kitchen & Bath Design Presentation (2nd Edition). Suggested readings are Chapters 1 to 3 for session 1, Chapters 4 to 6 for session 2, and Chapters 7 to 9 for session 3.

The third class, “From Measurement to Conception: Understanding Documentation,” explores the importance of the designer’s role in working with remodelers and builders, presentation standards and how the appropriate documents help designers build an effective communication plan. The class emphasizes the value of being an NKBA certified designer, how a professional set of documents enhances a portfolio, and how stellar communications can set designers apart from their competitors. The course also examines the correct measuring process to use when evaluating a project, and shares essentials that should be in the measuring “tool kit” for every project.

This free session takes place Nov. 13 at 12 noon (Eastern Time). It’s presented by Peter Albanese, CKBD, and offers 0.1 CEU.

At the end of this session, participants will be able to identify the role of a designer and who the design documents will impact for any project; explain the purpose and value of NKBA Kitchen and Bath Presentation Standards; list all the design documents to include and how they affect the outcome of a project, and design a communication plan and recognize the importance of an appropriate project evaluation.

Finally, as a reminder, in November, the certification exam prep course continues from October, which focused on the kitchen component, with the bath unit. Judith A. Neary, CMKBD, will teach six webinars specializing in bath certification, for designers who are already certified in kitchens and wish to obtain the full CKBD certification. The sessions require attendees to use the Professional Resource Library — Complete 9 Volume Set, and a Microsoft LifeChat LX-3000 headset or comparable unit with a microphone. Registrants must hold the NKBA certified Associate Kitchen and Bath Designer (AKBD) designation.

The six bath modules, run Oct. 31, Nov. 1, 3, 6, 8 and 10. It costs members $399 and non-members $449, and provides 1.5 CEUs and 15 NKBA Education Hours.

Registrants must have intermediate drafting skills and mastery of NKBA Kitchen Planning Guidelines (including Access Standards and Code References), and the tools available to email completed assignments to the instructor. This includes scanning full size (11 x 17) hand-drafted assignments, if applicable. For the best audio and graphics, it is highly recommended that participants use a landline connection instead of wireless.

As with all NKBA webinars, registration closes two hours prior to start time, and attendees must participate in a minimum of 80 percent of the sessions in order to receive CEUs and NKBA Education Hours. The viewing of recorded sessions does not count towards this requirement.

For full details and to register, visit www.NKBA.org, click on Learning, NKBA Courses, then on Course Calendar.

Disaster Relief Fund Deadline Is Oct. 31

The deadline for donations to the NKBA Disaster Relief Fund and for applications for assistance is Oct. 31. We are grateful to Ferguson, Rohl, our chapters and the many individual members for their generous donations thus far.

We encourage you to support your fellow members. Your contributions will go directly to helping our members get their businesses, livelihoods and lives back on track.

If you are in the affected area and wish to request assistance, please click here to fill out this form or email our point person Julie Figiel at jfigiel@nkba.org. All requests will be kept confidential.

We thank you for your generosity!

Fine-Tuning the Package was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Data on September housing starts revealed the impact of the hurricanes that hit the mainland in South Texas and Florida. Construction of single-family homes fell by 4.6% in the month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 829,000 units. Construction of multifamily units dropped by a slightly higher percentage, down 5.1% to 298,000 units. They brought total housing starts to just 1.127 million units (annual rate), the lowest level of activity in a year.

But, as indicated in the chart above, single-family starts remained within the range they have maintained over the last year — that is, an annual rate between 800,000 and 875,000 units.

Although housing starts fell in three of the four U.S. regions, the decline in the South region (which includes both Texas and Florida) was the second largest among the regions. The Midwest region led with the sharpest drop, with starts dropping by more than 20 % from August 2017.

The increase in the West brings its share of the nation’s activity to 31% — up from 26% a year ago. This gain comes at the expense of the South, which generated more than half of the housing starts in September 2016, and which is down to 47% this year.

Contrasting the relatively flat pattern in single-family starts, construction of multifamily units has been in freefall since the beginning of the year. While builders started construction of multifamily houses at a rate of 460,000 in December 2016, that figure was down to 298,000 units last month. This rate is 35% lower than it was nine months ago.

The strength in multifamily construction over the last few years appears to have evaporated. The slowdown in construction activity is the result of an excess of rental units, as the vacancy rate in the second quarter was 1% higher than the prior two years. Nearly one in 10 rental units was vacant in the second quarter (9%), up from an average of 7.8% previously. As such, rising vacancy rates discourage builders from engaging in the construction of more units.

Mortgage rates dropped marginally last week to 3.88% — 3 basis points below the prior week. This is the first decline in more than a month, although it does not necessarily signal a reversal in the expected continuation of rising interest rates.

Despite the low growth of the U.S. economy, it is expected that the Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at least one more time this year, plus several times in 2018. This action will have the natural effect of causing further increases in mortgage rates this year, and very likely in 2018.

Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA

Explanation of NKBA’s Economic Indicators Dashboard

The dashboard displays the latest value of each economic indicator with a colored triangle that highlights visually the recent trend for each of the drivers. “Green” is a positive signal, indicating that the latest value is improving; “Yellow,” as it’s commonly understood, denotes caution because the variable may be changing direction; “Red” indicates that the variable in question is declining, both in its current value and in relation to the recent past.

Note that all the data, except for “mortgage rate” and “appliance-store sales” are seasonally adjusted and are represented at annual rates.

Remodeling Expenditures. This is the amount of money spent on home improvement projects during the month in question. It covers all work done for privately owned homes (excludes rentals, etc.). The data are in billions of dollars and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Single-Family Starts. This is the number of single-family houses for which construction was started in the given month. The data are in thousands of houses and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Existing-Home Sales. These data are issued monthly by the National Association of Realtors, and capture the number of existing homes that were sold in the previous month.

High-End Home Sales. This series are sales of new homes priced at $750,000 and higher. The data are released quarterly by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are not seasonally adjusted. Thus, a valid comparison is made to the same quarter of prior year.

Mortgage Rate. We have chosen the rate on 30-year conventional loans that is issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (known popularly as Freddie Mac.) Although there are a large number of mortgage instruments available to consumers, this one is still the most commonly used.

Employees in Residential Remodeling. This indicator denotes the number of individuals employed in construction firms that do mostly residential remodeling work.

Building-Materials Sales. These data, released monthly by the Department of Commerce, capture total sales of building materials, regardless of whether consumers or contractors purchased them. However, we should caution that the data also includes sales to projects other than residential houses.

Appliance-Store Sales. This driver captures the monthly sales of stores that sell mostly household appliances; the data are stated at an annual rate. We should not confuse this driver with total appliance sales, since they are sold by other types of stores such as home centers, for instance.

We hope that you find this dashboard useful as a general guide to the state of our industry. Please contact us if you would like to see further detail.

Economic Indicators: 10/26/17 was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

By Dianne M. Pogoda

The kitchen and bath industry has maintained its strength in the building and remodeling spheres, providing a wide range of careers within a lucrative and growing field. The NKBA is proud to recognize its Thirty Under 30 honorees — outstanding professionals who have distinguished themselves in branches of the business from design to marketing, sales to management, construction to product development and more.

Revenues in this field surpassed $134 billion in the past year — and that’s continuing to grow, heading in 2018 and beyond. With accomplished young professionals like those garnering Thirty Under 30 honors, the industry can be assured of a healthy and prosperous future.

The Thirty Under 30 winners will join the Association at the upcoming Kitchen & Bath Industry Show (KBIS®), to be held Jan. 9–11, 2018, in Orlando. ­The group will make its debut on the KBISNeXT Stage at 11:30 am on Jan. 9.

The candidates selected for the Thirty Under 30 program are: Destin Barkley, Allied ASID, D’Asign Source, Marathon, FL; Eileen Byrne, Hatchett Design/Remodel, Newport News, VA; Lindsay Cerilli, LEED GA, Cerulean Concepts, Leander, TX; Stephanie Chavez, Allied ASID, Selections By Steph, Austin, TX; Joseph Ciuffo, Ciuffo Cabinetry, Deer Park, NY; ; Nicole Conte, Attention To Details, Manchester Center, VT; Brianna Ellis, Rev-A-Shelf, LLC., Louisville, KY; Maryanna Estornes, Bright Ideas by Martinec, Big Flats, NY; Alannah Fanset, William Standen Co., Sarnia, ON; Alison Green, AKBD, Allied ASID, Jackson Design and Remodeling, San Diego, CA; Kailee Helget, AKBD, R. Henry Construction, Mankato, MN; Kelsey Holtz, Allied ASID, LEED GA, Green Design Center, Waukesha, WI; Erica Illions, Snappy Kitchens, Dallas, TX; Aimee Inouye, AKBD Sinclair Construction, Concord, CA; Zech Johnson, Southern Home Improvement, Dalton, GA; Kevin King, Barger, Washington, DC; Taryn Milburn, The Home Depot, Palm Coast, FL; Keara Miller, Cambria, Eden Prairie, MN; David Podwyszynski, Rangecraft Manufacturing, Fair Lawn, NJ; Elise Raydo, Monogram Appliances, Denver, CO; Briana Ryan, Fisher & Paykel Appliances, New York, NY; Lou Salge, Four Seasons Design & Remodeling, Angola, IN; EJ Silver, Studio41 Design Showroom, Chicago, IL; Giana Siska, Signature Kitchen & Bath Design Inc., Cupertino, CA; Samantha Snead, Reico Kitchen & Bath, Richmond, VA; Tyler Swartzmiller, Kitchen Kraft, Columbus, OH: Danielle Sylvia, Kitchen & Bath Details, Mattapoisett, MA; Katie Thurman, US Cabinet Depot, Acworth, GA; Melanie Towey, Emser Tile, Los Angeles, CA; Natalie Venalainen, Men At Work Design Build Ltd., Toronto, ON.

“This group of outstanding young professionals represents the future of the industry,” said Bill Darcy, NKBA Chief Executive Officer. “NKBA is proud to recognize them as part of this key program, and we’re looking forward to hearing their insightful presentations in Orlando. The Thirty Under 30 honor will help them as they continue to develop their careers, and we are happy to be a part of recognizing the next generation of industry leaders.”

NKBA is adding a new element to this year’s proceedings. Prior to KBIS 2018, the honorees will be assigned into six groups of five, with each team collaborating on a “Product of the Future.” The teams will present their creations on the KBISNeXT stage on Jan. 10. It’s sure to be an eye-opening presentation to see what these rising young professionals view as important developments in the space, what’s missing or what can be improved.

Introduced in 2013, the NKBA Thirty Under 30 program continues to capture the voice of the next generation of kitchen and bath professionals. If you would like your company associated with the best of the next generation of kitchen and bath professionals, contact Mauri Bailey at 678–900–2661 or email mbailey@nkba.org.

To learn more about KBIS 2018 and to register for the show and/or events, please visit www.kbis.com.

HALL OF FAME NOMINATIONS NOW OPEN

What do Cooperstown, N.Y.; Canton, Ohio, and Hackettstown, N.J., have in common? They’re each home to a Hall of Fame.

At our NKBA Headquarters in Hackettstown, we maintain the Kitchen & Bath Industry Hall of Fame, which honors individuals who have contributed in a significant way to the growth and professionalism of the industry at large, as well as the Association. The Hall was established in 1989. Each year, NKBA seeks to recognize professionals whose enduring contributions include discovering or creating a “game-changing” product or process that significantly advanced the industry. As voting members of the NKBA, you may nominate someone who has made a key difference in the business, who might be considered a visionary leader and proponent of the industry as a whole.

Nominees are evaluated based on industry contributions, leadership, corporate citizenship, and other criteria. Individuals selected for induction will join other honored members — inventors, business leaders, designers and educators — some of the most outstanding people in our field.

Nominations are open through Oct. 31. For full details and to nominate an individual for this honor, visit the Hall of Fame page on www.NKBA.org and complete the online form.

Thirty Under 30 — Class of 2018 was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Despite negative signals in several areas of the economy, consumers remain optimistic about the overall outlook. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to its highest value in more than a decade. Both components comprising the index — their current conditions assessment and their view of the future — rose in October, and following the usual pattern, expectations for the future rose more sharply.

Consumers expect the current economic expansion to continue and do not foresee an economic downturn in the near future. Interestingly, they expect low inflation and small increases in interest rates.

But consumer prices actually rose at a faster rate in September: they were half a percentage point higher (+0.5%) than the previous month, bringing price inflation to 2.2% over the last year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen at a faster rate each month over the last quarter. Most of the increases have been driven by increases in energy or food prices.

The inflation rate excluding food and energy, shown by the red line in the chart above, has been increasing at a stable rate of 1.7% in the last five months. This is the index that economists usually rely on as an indicator of “core” inflation. Economists typically view this as an indication that inflation is not getting any worse, even though consumers are still seeing a 2.2% increase in prices.

September retail sales increased by 1.6%, which is a slightly lower pace than the previous month, when sales rose by a robust 3.5%. Compared to a year ago, retail sales are 4.4% higher.

Further, sales at building-materials stores rose faster than overall retail sales. They were 2.1% above August, compared to the 1.6% for total sales cited above. Building-materials stores’ sales were a remarkably strong 10% above last year.

On the other hand, sales at appliance stores continue to fall. In August, the latest month for which we have data, sales fell by another 14.3%. This is the third consecutive double-digit decline in sales compared to the prior year. But as NKBA has observed, this doesn’t necessarily signal that sales of appliances are falling; rather, it is sales at traditional “appliance stores” that are in decline, as appliances like washers, dryers, refrigerators and dishwashers are selling at home centers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.

And interest rates continue to rise, albeit at a slow pace. Last week the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose by six basis points (0.06%) to 3.91%. Although this may seem like a negligible increase, we should note that this is an average over all loans executed during the week. Some consumers are in fact paying a rate higher than this average, and a small increase may price them out of the housing market.

Economists as a whole expect interest rates to rise over the next year, although very few project increases more than a half a percentage point. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve Bank will make only two or three interest moves over the next 12 months.

Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA

Explanation of NKBA’s Economic Indicators Dashboard

The dashboard displays the latest value of each economic indicator with a colored triangle that highlights visually the recent trend for each of the drivers. “Green” is a positive signal, indicating that the latest value is improving; “Yellow,” as it’s commonly understood, denotes caution because the variable may be changing direction; “Red” indicates that the variable in question is declining, both in its current value and in relation to the recent past.

Note that all the data, except for “mortgage rate” and “appliance-store sales” are seasonally adjusted and are represented at annual rates.

Remodeling Expenditures. This is the amount of money spent on home improvement projects during the month in question. It covers all work done for privately owned homes (excludes rentals, etc.). The data are in billions of dollars and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Single-Family Starts. This is the number of single-family houses for which construction was started in the given month. The data are in thousands of houses and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Existing-Home Sales. These data are issued monthly by the National Association of Realtors, and capture the number of existing homes that were sold in the previous month.

High-End Home Sales. This series are sales of new homes priced at $750,000 and higher. The data are released quarterly by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are not seasonally adjusted. Thus, a valid comparison is made to the same quarter of prior year.

Mortgage Rate. We have chosen the rate on 30-year conventional loans that is issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (known popularly as Freddie Mac.) Although there are a large number of mortgage instruments available to consumers, this one is still the most commonly used.

Employees in Residential Remodeling. This indicator denotes the number of individuals employed in construction firms that do mostly residential remodeling work.

Building-Materials Sales. These data, released monthly by the Department of Commerce, capture total sales of building materials, regardless of whether consumers or contractors purchased them. However, we should caution that the data also includes sales to projects other than residential houses.

Appliance-Store Sales. This driver captures the monthly sales of stores that sell mostly household appliances; the data are stated at an annual rate. We should not confuse this driver with total appliance sales, since they are sold by other types of stores such as home centers, for instance.

We hope that you find this dashboard useful as a general guide to the state of our industry. Please contact us if you would like to see further detail.

Economic Indicators: Consumer Sentiment Still Riding High was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

By Dianne M. Pogoda

The week of Oct. 9 celebrated K&B and the City — Kitchen & Bath week in New York.

NKBA partnered with Kohler and Interior Design magazine on Oct. 10 for an event at the new Kohler Experience Center in Manhattan, drawing more than 100 designers, dealers and other professionals for an engaging evening of mingling and exploring.

As part of the festivities, Interior Design publisher Carol Cisco introduced NKBA Industry Relations Manager and resident design expert Elle H-Millard, CKD, who presented her take on the key trends she discovered at London Design Week in September.

“London’s design aesthetic is a mix of historical and edgy,” Millard said. “It differs from the American design ethos, which tends to be more traditional and less experimental.”

Millard touched upon several key directions and innovations for the year ahead and beyond.

• Pods. “These are sound-proof or intimate spaces in a noisy environment,” she said. “We saw them all over London — in showrooms as well as in use in restaurants.” The pods are particularly welcome in the open floorplans that are prevalent in architectural design today. “They’re designed for a sense of privacy and relate to the at-home lifestyle. It could be an egg-shaped bathroom pod, an elevated or suspended dining area in a big loft space, a quiet room to take a phone call or for kids to do homework, or even a home office space. They all serve different functional purposes, and design-wise, they are like sculptures within the space.”

• Animals. “In the U.S., we still see mostly birds and they’re mainly on walls and wallpapers,” Millard explained. “In Europe, there are some big animals — livestock — represented in prints or blends of fur, acrylic, polypropylene and other materials, in realistic and abstract form. There, the animals are more a part of the setting. For instance, instead of a print of a ram, an ottoman might be designed to look like an actual ram.”

• Finishes. “There are a lot of natural, organic, wood tones in Europe,” Millard said, “whereas in the U.S., the trend is more toward high-gloss, lacquered surfaces. The problem is that the lacquered surfaces scratch easily.” To battle that issue, Barn in the City, a Dutch firm, has developed a surface technology that self-repairs minor scratches. The company reclaims aged wood (often from barns) and refinishes the surfaces with its inventive technology to create modern furniture.

• Refurbishing. One London-based company, The Water Monopoly, specializes in restoring antique bathroom fixtures like claw-foot tubs, resurfacing and modernizing them to conform to current plumbing code and standards. “This is a great example of mixing the historic with the modern,” Millard said.

• Pattern on pattern. This trend represents a mélange of patterns — the busier, the better — that works best when two busy patterns are juxtaposed against one another, such as upholstery against wallpaper, punctuated by a bold, solid element.

• Neon colors. Fall 2019 will also be a mix of tones. For that season, the palette pairs neon brights with neutral pastels, such as a subtle mint green matched with an electric yellow or vibrant orange. “Again, it’s an example of a study in contrasts that works together,” Millard concluded.

NKBA’s full 2018 design trend study, along with a plethora of directional information, will be revealed at the Kitchen & Batch Industry Show (KBIS) in Orlando, Jan. 9 to 11.

Interior Design’s editor in chief, Cindy Allen, will deliver a compelling keynote address at KBIS, on Jan. 9 at 1:30 at the Orange County Convention Center, S210A.

In a wide-ranging address headlined “Pop Goes the Future: Top Trends Bursting onto the K&B Scene,” Allen will cover topics of critical interest to the kitchen and bath remodeling industry and key design and business directions likely to have an impact in the year ahead.

The 10,000-square-foot KEC opened in May in the Flatiron District, showcasing a comprehensive array of plumbing, fixtures and surfaces from Kohler and sister brand Kallista, as well as the company’s Robern brand of cabinetry, vanities and lighted mirrors, and Ann Sacks tile and stone. The KEC offers a new global specification service, which provides architects and designers working on international projects instant access to products across the brands’ global portfolios. Kohler experts are available to help source and resolve complex plumbing projects, keeping in adherence to codes and requirements in domestic and international markets.

In addition to design and specification services, the KEC, which is operated in partnership with leading Kohler distributor Best Plumbing Supply, also has fully functional shower, sink and toilet rooms to test the products’ operation on the spot.

There are six KECs open. Besides New York, centers are operating in London, Singapore, Bangkok, New Delhi and Taipei. A center is expected to open in West Hollywood/Los Angeles in November.

HALL OF FAME NOMINATIONS NOW OPEN

What do Cooperstown, N.Y.; Canton, Ohio, and Hackettstown, N.J., have in common? They’re each home to a Hall of Fame.

At our NKBA Headquarters in Hackettstown, we maintain the Kitchen & Bath Industry Hall of Fame, which honors individuals who have contributed in a significant way to the growth and professionalism of the industry at large, as well as the Association. The Hall was established in 1989. Each year, NKBA seeks to recognize professionals whose enduring contributions include discovering or creating a “game-changing” product or process that significantly advanced the industry. As voting members of the NKBA, you may nominate someone who has made a key difference in the business, who might be considered a visionary leader and proponent of the industry as a whole.

Nominees are evaluated based on industry contributions, leadership, corporate citizenship, and other criteria. Individuals selected for induction will join other honored members — inventors, business leaders, designers and educators — some of the most outstanding people in our field.

Nominations are open through Oct. 31. For full details and to nominate an individual for this honor, visit the Hall of Fame page on www.NKBA.org and complete the online form.

K&B and the City was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Last week’s employment report provided a first glimpse at the impact of the two major hurricanes that hit the Southeastern U.S. in September. The report showed total employment declined by 33,000 jobs, which was the first reduction in the number of workers since 2010 — the tail of the 2007–2009 Great Recession.

The decline in employment contrasts the pattern of the last few years. In fact, since the beginning of 2017, employment has risen at a monthly average of 170,000 workers.

The hurricanes’ impact on individual states won’t be known until the beginning of next month, when September’s state employment data is released. Significantly, however, the combined employment of Texas and Florida represents 14% of the U.S. workforce. Or, put another way, one out of every seven American workers is employed either in Texas or Florida.

Similarly, the full impact of the hurricanes on the remodeling industry won’t be known until November, since such data is also released one month after the national-level data.

Employment in remodeling businesses rose by 1,200 jobs in August, to a total of 334,600 employees. As shown in the chart below, employment has recovered modestly since April. Although we are still below February’s peak remodeling employment of nearly 339,000 workers, compared to the same month last year, employment is up by 10,000 workers.

The increase in remodeling firms’ employment is in line with the gains in spending on remodeling projects by consumers. The chart below displays the trend in homeowners’ spending on remodeling over the last year, reaching an annual rate of nearly $195 billion in August. The rate of spending has increased by $26.5 billion since August 2016, a 16% gain.

This means that the portion of our members’ businesses that depends on this market segment should have improved over the last year. In fact, the 16% gain in overall remodeling spending can be used as a general gauge of the gain we should expect.

On the negative side, mortgage rates continue to edge up. The average mortgage rate rose by two basis points (0.2%) last week, to 3.85%. Still, mortgage rates are nearly half a percentage point below their level at the beginning of this year, when they averaged 4.3%.

Nonetheless, the outlook for mortgage rates is that they will rise over the next few months. Monetary policy guided by the Federal Reserve Bank is likely to be more restrictive when a new chairman is appointed by President Trump next February. The “easy money” stance maintained by the Fed over the last few years, which has resulted in very low interest rates generally, will replaced by a “tight money” regime — although we won’t know how tight until the new chairman takes over.

Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA

Explanation of NKBA’s Economic Indicators Dashboard

The dashboard displays the latest value of each economic indicator with a colored triangle that highlights visually the recent trend for each of the drivers. “Green” is a positive signal, indicating that the latest value is improving; “Yellow,” as it’s commonly understood, denotes caution because the variable may be changing direction; “Red” indicates that the variable in question is declining, both in its current value and in relation to the recent past.

Note that all the data, except for “mortgage rate” and “appliance-store sales” are seasonally adjusted and are represented at annual rates.

Remodeling Expenditures. This is the amount of money spent on home improvement projects during the month in question. It covers all work done for privately owned homes (excludes rentals, etc.). The data are in billions of dollars and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Single-Family Starts. This is the number of single-family houses for which construction was started in the given month. The data are in thousands of houses and are issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Existing-Home Sales. These data are issued monthly by the National Association of Realtors, and capture the number of existing homes that were sold in the previous month.

High-End Home Sales. This series are sales of new homes priced at $750,000 and higher. The data are released quarterly by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are not seasonally adjusted. Thus, a valid comparison is made to the same quarter of prior year.

Mortgage Rate. We have chosen the rate on 30-year conventional loans that is issued by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (known popularly as Freddie Mac.) Although there are a large number of mortgage instruments available to consumers, this one is still the most commonly used.

Employees in Residential Remodeling. This indicator denotes the number of individuals employed in construction firms that do mostly residential remodeling work.

Building-Materials Sales. These data, released monthly by the Department of Commerce, capture total sales of building materials, regardless of whether consumers or contractors purchased them. However, we should caution that the data also includes sales to projects other than residential houses.

Appliance-Store Sales. This driver captures the monthly sales of stores that sell mostly household appliances; the data are stated at an annual rate. We should not confuse this driver with total appliance sales, since they are sold by other types of stores such as home centers, for instance.

We hope that you find this dashboard useful as a general guide to the state of our industry. Please contact us if you would like to see further detail.

Economic Indicators: 10/12/17 was originally published in NKBA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.