New Hampshire Didn’t Get the Memo

Prices are softening across much of the country. In the Granite State they just set a September record. Here’s what I see underneath the number.

Most of the housing conversation right now is about cooling. Prices are flat or slipping in a lot of metros, inventory is finally building, and sellers are adjusting. Then you look at New Hampshire, and the story runs the other way.

The statewide average sale price hit $530,000 in September. That’s a record for the month and roughly 4% higher than a year ago. Eleven of the country’s 100 hottest housing markets are in New Hampshire. For a state of about 1.4 million people, that’s a lot of heat in a small space.

I don’t read that as a bubble. I read it as a supply problem that never got fixed, meeting demand that keeps showing up.

Where the heat is

The county numbers tell you more than the statewide average:

• Grafton, up 12.4%
• Carroll, up 8.7%
• Belknap, up 6.8%
• Cheshire, up 6.7%

Look at that list. Grafton holds Hanover and Lebanon, Dartmouth and the medical center, plus the White Mountain towns along Interstate 93. Carroll is the Mount Washington Valley. Belknap is the Lakes Region. These aren’t Boston…