Storm System Could Bring a Month’s Worth of Rain
National Weather Service warns heavy flooding is possible
SPARTA-We could see a month’s worth of rainfall over the next four days. Officials from the National Weather Service’s Blacksburg office presented that news Sunday night, as they delivered a regional briefing. The current forecast calls for significant storms across this region, with the worst predicted for Ashe, Alleghany and Watauga.
“By the end of the week, [expect] rainfall of 4 to 6 inches,” NWS officials said in their briefing statement. “[The] heaviest rain is expected along the Blue Ridge of northwest North Carolina.”
Current forecasts call for 7.5 inches of rain this week in Jefferson, with 8.1 expected in Boone. Parts of Wilkes and Surry counties are expected to get the lighter end of the system, with 4 to 5 inches predicted in both. Officials recommended that anyone living along the Watauga and Yadkin rivers be prepared for the possibility of heavy flooding. While all creeks, streams and rivers could overflow, National Weather Service officials pointed to the Watauga and Yadkin as the most likely to be hit hard. Some of the rain will come as simple showers, NWS officials said, while warning people to be prepared for severe thunderstorms as well.
“The first round of heavy rainfall and some thunderstorms is expected to arrive Monday night,” the briefing statement said. “Flooding, flash flooding and river flooding will all be possible through the week ahead.”
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Most of the rain is expected to fall Monday night and through Tuesday. After 7 p.m. Monday, up to 2 inches could fall, with another 2 inches on Tuesday. The ground just won’t be prepared to absorb all the water pouring down, officials said. In most of this region, this week’s expected rainfall is more than what comes in a month. North Wilkesboro, for example, has an average rainfall of 4.11 inches in the month of May, while Jefferson averages 4.88.
Where’s This Coming From?
First off, this has nothing to do with the tropical storm approaching North Carolina’s coast. While the hurricane season typically begins on June 1, this year brought an early visitor. Tropical Storm Arthur formed Saturday just off Florida’s coast and as of 1:30 a.m. this morning, it was just over 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras. But that system is too far out to impact local weather, NWS officials said.
“Our rain will be associated with an entirely different system that will stall to our west for several days, bringing several rounds of rain to the area,” the briefing statement said. “Several rounds of heavy rainfall are expected to track across the region from southwest to northeast.”
That’s coming due to the fact a deep low pressure system is coming up from the Gulf. That system is expected to stall over this area. As the warm front that brought us temperatures in the mid-80s is just now leaving, forecasters are concerned the two might meet. What happens next is hard to predict. When a hot and cold front meet, there are two possibilities. The first, if there’s enough humidity and the cold front comes in fast, severe thunderstorms and potentially tornadoes are created. The second is much simpler. If there’s not enough humidity and the cold front slows down, then you just get clouds and constant rain.
Right now, it’s more likely to see just a few scattered thunderstorms, officials say, rather than severe weather like we had in April.
Brian Carlton is the editor for NWNC Magazine. He can be reached at brian.carlton38@gmail.com.
