GE19: No Scexit Mandate for Sturgeon
There’s nothing quite like 10pm on election night in the United Kingdom. As the polling station doors slam shut and the pain-staking process of counting the ballot kicks into gear, the real action begins on the small screen.
Yes – the exit poll is imminent.
Commissioned by the BBC and ITV, this set of polling data is impressively accurate. Twenty thousand Brits are canvassed as they leave their polling place and they’re apparently wilfully happy to disclose their voting preference, to the endless glee of Sir John Curtice.
At five past ten, after weeks of incessant politicking, the projected national outcome is broadcast to the nation. Despair. Elation. Relief. Indifference. It’s all there, and the absolute worst of it is present on Twitter dot com, fused with a mix of faux-outrage and vitriol.
This is a moment I find exciting. In fact, I find the whole process of voting to be a really satisfying exercise. I’d spent weeks immersed in the campaign, going from door to door and trying to positively influence others. But was I in a bubble? There’s always that fear of mis-hearing the mood music.
This election had definitely felt a little peculiar from the start. Probably because of the whole winter thing, but also because Nicola Sturgeon’s secessionists had been dumbing-down their Scexit credentials in a bid to attract the anti-Tory vote across Scotland. Yes; a party with the sole aim of destroying the UK was now pragmatic about the whole ‘dissolve the union’ thing. Unionists – Specifically Labour unionists – were being wooed. This from the same woman who has spent years branding them as “Red Toaries” and quislings. Bizarre doesn’t cover it.
Nevertheless, I felt optimistic that Labour voters – traditionally pro-UK in their mindset, but often uneasy with the ‘unionist’ label – wouldn’t be conned by such a duplicitous tactic. I was also certain that the Scottish Conservative vote would hold up well, despite the absence of the formidable Ruth Davidson.
In the UK-wide context, I’d hoped to break the mind-numbing Westminster deadlock we’d witnessed in recent months by electing the Conservatives with a whopping majority.
With that twin objective in mind, it’s fair to say the release of the exit poll data was met with mixed reactions in my household.
First and foremost, it’s a UK general election. So let’s look at the result through a nationwide lens. In securing this majority, I genuinely believe we’ll see Johnson’s government pursuing a ‘One Nation’ agenda in the years ahead. The fall of the red wall has been spectacular, and with it comes a heightened expectation to deliver for those communities which have too often been left behind. Time will tell on that front.
My relief at the UK outcome was immediately tempered by disappointment in the Scottish context. The SNP were projected to secure 55 seats in total – a rise of 20 seats on their 2017 haul. As the BBC coverage rolled on, Sir John Curtice was at pains to stress that the sampling lacked statistical significance up here, but I’d had a gut-feel that it was unlikely to be wildly wrong.
I was right in that sense. Their tactical pursuit of the Labour vote had paid dividends, with 47 seats captured across the country. As the announcements rang in from gym halls around Scotland, there was an evident shift from Labour to the nationalists – largely in Tory seats. This had resulted in the Scottish Conservatives losing a chunk of MP’s and the SNP taking their most sought-after Liberal Demorat marginal in East Dunbartonshire. Cue Nicola Sturgeon dancing gracelessly on the telly.
As the coverage entered the wee hours, the political analysis ramped up and hot-takes became increasingly vacuous as the broadcasters attempted to fill the void. I flicked between BBC Scotland and BBC London to get a sense of the reaction to the SNP gains and was unsurprised to see many commentators dancing to Nicola Sturgeon’s tune.
In short; the nationalists were emboldened.
They commenced their charm offensive immediately, of course. Derek Mackay, Michelle Thomson (remember her?), Ian Blackford et al. And as I listened, I couldn’t help but think the pro-UK voices around the table were ill-prepared in countering the SNP’s disingenuous narrative with an effective unionist rebuke.
Let’s be clear here; with the SNP using this election as a proxy vote on Scexit, this election was never going to be about the allocation of Westminster seats. I said this on Twitter as soon as the date was announced. The quirks of the first-past-the-post electoral system are an advantage to Sturgeon, with no realistic chance of the kind of wholesale tactical unionist voting that’d be required to minimise their influence.
On that basis, vote share was – and remains – the key indicator of Scotland’s appetite for independence. And, even then, this election wasn’t that black and white, with the SNP deploying the aforementioned tactic to dupe the electorate by pretending not the despise the very fabric of our United Kingdom.
To illustrate the point, a mere glance at the vote share shows 45% support for the nationalists – up 8% from their showing in 2017 and a fair whack short of their 50% peak in 2015.
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That falls far short of a mandate, and they know it. Pro-UK commentators should not shy away from re-affirming that very fact at every opportunity. It’s not spin – It’s the reality. No mandate; No apologies.
Of course, that’s often difficult in Scotland where the SNP are the political establishment after a decade in power. Their PR machine is well-oiled, and it produces copious amounts of grievo-max soundbites.
Grievance has been a feature of the nationalist strategy for many moons, but we’re already seeing a further escalation of that rhetoric since the election. Take the alarming attempt to control the press in Scotland, which was reported by The Times this week. Scottish government spin-doctors have essentially issued guidance to the broadcast media with tips on how to ‘rigorously scrutinise’ Conservative politicians when they have the temerity to speak out in opposition to the separatist point of view. Sorry, but such attempts are sinister and represent an intrusion of press freedom. They should be vociferously called out as such by all sides.
In addition, we’ve seen an escalation of anti-UK rhetoric in their public discourse and a general worsening of behaviour when it comes to representing Scotland in the House of Commons.
For example; Sturgeon has spoken publicly about Scotland’s ‘imprisonment’ in the United Kingdom, whilst the boorish Stewart Hosie talked publicly about a Section 30 order being an optional instrument in their Scexit plan. This was red meat for the nationalist masses given many will draw parallels with the illegal Catalan vote on separation from Spain. But it’s an utterly incredible thing for an elected politician to suggest. Presuming Bute House approved that hot-take, we can only assume they’re intending to become increasingly fundamentalist in their anti-British approach.
Their child-like, petulant behaviour hasn’t ended there though. As Steven Bonnar – Member of the British Parliament for Coatbridge – was sworn in, he crossed his fingers as he pledged his oath to Her Majesty the Queen. Several others, including Mhairi Black and David Linden, undertook similar petty stunts to play to the gallery.
Underpinning this new tactic is the social media strategy, with the likes of Joanna Cherry tweeting about how she feels ‘trapped’ in the Parliament of ‘another country’. They’re all at it, with a range of very specific references to Britain in every facet of every grievance they spout.
Make no mistake; this is a culture war on the notion of Britain and Britishness. It’s an attempt to drive out those, like myself, who feel fiercely proud to be both Scottish and British. It would not be tolerated if you substituted Britain for any other country in the world, and yet it’s overlooked in this little part of the world.
I suspect most normal Scots will see these tactics for what they are – attempts to further divide us. And I hope they take a dim view of that tactic when we go to the polls at Holyrood in 2021.
But the real shame here is the big missed opportunity of having SNP MP’s in Parliament who are choosing to spend their days plotting the destruction of the UK as their foremost concern, rather than positively representing their constituents and furthering Scotland’s cause within our shared union.
Take a look at the new group of Conservative MP’s who were pivotal in destroying the ‘red wall’ in the North of England. They’ve bounded down to Westminster and, perhaps naively, espoused bold claims about “powering up the North” and improving the lives of those in their consistencies. Now, they’ll likely be ground down in time by the realities of modern politics, but my god they’re down there to have their voices heard.
As Scots, we’re not so lucky. Instead, we have to suffer the yellow lanyard gang. As Ian Blackford’s nodding dugs, we’ll see stunt after stunt in the next few years. No stunt is beneath them in their quest to conflate Scotland’s will for the SNP’s will at every juncture.
However, we should not be demoralised by the avalanche of negativity and narrow nationalism that comes from SNP quarters and we, as proud Britons, should not play into their hands.
With Nicola Sturgeon’s letter en route to the Prime Minister, I hope Mr Johnson invokes the spirit of the late Elvis Presley and ‘returns to sender’. The message should be clear – stay in your lane. Focus on governing Scotland and respect the will of the Scottish people as expressed in 2014.
What will not help our cause is the self-indulgent public soul-searching we’re seeing from Labour types in light of their sharp demise in Scotland. Monica Lennon, for example, seems to be open to a potential shift in their stance on the constitution in an attempt to attract pro-Indy voters.
Let’s be clear here; Scottish Labour should be unapologetically pro-UK. As the self-titled ‘party of the workers’, they should realise that Scexit would result in a significant adverse impact on Scotland’s working classes. That means job losses, swinging cuts in public spending and higher taxes. Richard Leonard and his cronies will not out-SNP the SNP. Even trying to do so will result in losing even more voters. Focus instead on electing a proper centre-left leader and build from there.
Every ambivalent comment from the likes of Lennon let’s the SNP off the hook and plays right into their hands. The constitution is their ultimate indulgence and it acts as distracting squirrel in moving the conversation away from their frankly dreadful record in government at Holyrood.
Education standards are at a low ebb, the NHS is in disarray and the transport brief is the latest to come under scrutiny as we see the early cancellation of the ScotRail contract due to the SNP’s mismanagement of the rail service. Add in the appalling statistics on drug deaths and we really do begin to get a feel for why they don’t want to talk about their domestic record.
Don’t let them off the hook. Don’t get bogged down in constitutional arguments. There is so much more to be concerned about as this incompetent, one-issue party doubles down on its obsession with Scexit.
With that in mind, pro-UK parties must be unrepentant in backing Scotland’s place in the United Kingdom. It’s time to tell them once again to focus on the day job. No mandate; no apologies.
