A Rays Off-season Walk Through
During the post-season I’ve received a number of questions about the 2018 Rays roster, and I think it helps to have some context. So that said I put together some important dates and sub-plots to look at as the off-season progresses.
Let’s begin with the key dates:
Day after the World Series: All players with at least six years of service time who are not under contract for the 2018 season will become free agents. Minor league players with six years of service will become minor league free agents if not added to a 40-man roster. From an MLB standpoint, this means that pitchers Steve Cishek, Alex Cobb, Tommy Hunter, and Sergio Romo as well as position players Peter Bourjos, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, and Trevor Plouffe become free agents. In addition, pitcher Shawn Tolleson does as well. Three other players in Matt Duffy, Nathan Eovaldi and Taylor Guerrieri would have to come off the 60-day DL.
Five Days after World Series: Teams must decide on options for players currently under contract. In this case, the Rays are barely affected with Nathan Eovaldi’s two-million dollar option the only one to decide upon, and that truly would appear to be a no-brainer, assuming health.
The Rays will have to decide whether to make a qualifying offer of $17.4 million for the 2018 season to Cobb. Should they do so and Cobb refuses the one-year deal, the Rays would receive draft pick compensation.
15 Days after the World Series: That’s the deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers from their former club. While it’s not expected Cobb would approve of a qualifying offer, this is the drop-dead date.
November 20th Rule 5 Protection: This is a fairly important day for the Rays. Players who were drafted out of college in the 2014 draft, or those drafted out of high school or signed as international free agents under the age of 19 in 2013 are eligible. For Tampa Bay, Jake Bauers and Brent Honeywell are among those to highlight the group, but I think it’s fair to say at least six players could be protected. We’ll have more on that in a later blog as to some of the other possibilities. That said, the decisions may also impact some current players on the 40-man, but also some where the deadlines would be later.
December 1st tender deadline: The Rays have 13 players who are arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors estimates what they will earn in 2018 as follows: Shawn Tolleson ($1.0M), Adeiny Hechavarria ($5.0M), Dan Jennings ($2.5M), Brad Boxberger ($1.9M), Corey Dickerson ($6.4M), Brad Miller ($4.4M), Xavier Cedeno ($1.4M), Jake Odorizzi ($6.5M), Jesus Sucre ($1.3M), Chase Whitley ($1.0M), Alex Colome ($5.5M), Steven Souza Jr ($3.6M) and Matt Duffy ($900K).
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That’s in addition to the players under contract (numbers also from MLB Trade Rumors): Chris Archer ($6.42 M) Kevin Kiermaier ($5.67M), Evan Longoria ($13.5M), and Wilson Ramos ($10.5 M). All told, that’s 17 players under contract for close to $77.5 million.
As individuals the Rays can keep all of these players for 2018. However, that also creates a limited amount of flexibility, roster-wise and financially. For instance, tendering all of the above players may lead to losing a quality player through the Rule 5 draft. In addition, there are other needs that will need to be filled with MLB talent, and spots may be limited in that area by tendering all of the above players.
Questions to answer:
That said, the Rays may trade some players before the tender deadline, or in some cases, trade players after the deadline to fill other needs. Here are the areas that would appear to be questions to resolve between now and the start of 2018.
Starting Pitching Depth: With Alex Cobb expected to move on via free agency, there are still a number of starting pitching options. The question is, which ones do the Rays keep, what maintains depth, and are there options that can be moved to eventually fortify that depth or fill other areas? Starting pitching options for 2018 include: Matt Andriese, Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Faria, Odorizzi, Austin Pruitt, and Blake Snell, plus prospects Yonny Chirinos, Jose De Leon, Brent Honeywell and Ryan Yarbrough.
Figuring Out the Bullpen: You can argue the Rays bullpen was among the league’s best after the trading deadline, but also was a big reason the team couldn’t pull away from the .500 magnet over the first four months. Alex Colome provides a reliable closer, but the issue in 2017 was getting to him. Replacing free agents Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek and Sergio Romo can be done via free agency and trades, along with the evolution of internal candidates like Jose Alvarado or Diego Castillo.
Who’s on First and What’s on Second: The Rays appear to have more depth on the left side of the infield than the right, or at least more questions after shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria was acquired from the Marlins. At second, the Rays could move Matt Duffy to the right side of the infield, or give prospects Willy Adames or Daniel Robertson a chance. That’s after Brad Miller’s struggles at the spot in 2017. At first, there’s a plethora of free agents, and the Rays may have the right player fall to them, as Logan Morrison did this past season. They could give rookie prospect Jake Bauers a chance, but it would make sense to add a veteran to take any pressure off the 22-year-old.
One Corner to Go: The Rays appear to be set with Kevin Kiermaier in center field and Steven Souza Jr in right, but will Corey Dickerson stay in left? Is he the team’s DH, and if so does Mallex Smith get a chance to play regularly. If the Rays feel Smith, who struggled offensively in the second half, needs more development time, what is the option? The Rays could acquire another outfielder in a trade, and find an option that also is reliable in center field, if Kiermaier needs any time off during the year. That gets to the final point.
More Contact: The Rays were at the top of the American League in strikeouts, setting a franchise record, and the three division winners all were bottom five in that category. Getting players to adjust in RBI situations and cutting down on strikeouts, or finding players who are more contact-oriented will give the Rays a better chance of scoring runs more consistently.
We will discuss many of these topics individually throughout the off-season, but this should provide a framework and context when specific moves are made.
