Olivier Desbarres·Jan 28, 2022Japanese Yen — Myths and realitiesThe Yen depreciated about 13% versus the US Dollar between 5th January 2021 (a 9-month high) — and 4th January 2022 (a 4-year low) but has…
Olivier Desbarres·Aug 12, 2021Low global FX vol: maturity or complacency?Global FX volatility — as measured by the 5-day Standard Deviation (SD) in the daily percentage change in the spot (closing) price of a…
Olivier Desbarres·Aug 6, 2021FX Focus: USD, GBP, NZD and THBUS Treasury yields and the Dollar, perhaps unsurprisingly, have risen in the wake of today’s strong US labour market report.
Olivier Desbarres·Apr 30, 2021Something has got to giveThe Federal Reserve has in the past six weeks diligently stuck to its “patience until substantial further progress is seen” monetary policy…
Olivier Desbarres·Apr 1, 2021Crunch time for Singapore Dollar and RenminbiWe estimate that the USD-value of central bank FX reserves — adjusted for currency-valuation effects — in China, India, Indonesia, Korea…
Olivier Desbarres·Mar 26, 2021Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX interventionNon-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in…
Olivier Desbarres·Feb 12, 2021Dollar’s recent weakness — Blip, not new trendIn the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations.
Olivier Desbarres·Feb 2, 2021Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using…
Olivier Desbarres·Jan 18, 2021Dollar — Diversification, rotation and valuationsMedia and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued…
Olivier Desbarres·Dec 21, 2020Forecast review: USD, CNY, EM & global growthWe concluded in Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross (8th December 2020) that the risk was tilted towards the People’s Bank of China…
