Naiyapak Boondee·Oct 9The Simplest Model Won: What I Learned Forecasting Restaurant SalesA modeling journey from raw CSVs to SARIMA, LSTMs, and a healthy dose of humility — Part 1 of 2.A response icon1A response icon1
Karthik·Jul 31Uncertainty Quantification in AI through Conformal Prediction (Part — 3)Chapter 3 — The Mathematics, Built Up Gently
Karthik·Jul 29Uncertainty Quantification in AI through Conformal Prediction (Part — 2)Chapter 2 — The Idea Behind Conformal Prediction
Karthik·Jul 29Uncertainty Quantification in AI through Conformal Prediction (Part — 1)The following is series of posts on Uncertainity quantification in AI systems and discussion on oneof the statistical methods namely…
Samraamin·Jul 23Distribution-Free UncertaintyNeural networks are pathologically overconfident. A model trained to minimize cross-entropy will cheerfully predict a 99% probability for…
Vraj Thakkar·Jul 13What is conformal prediction?If you have ever trained a machine learning model then you would have noticed that sometimes the models fail to learn a good representation…A response icon1A response icon1
Valeriy Manokhin, PhD, MBA, CQF·Jul 9Amazon Said a Tree Beats Conformal Prediction “By a Wide Margin.” I Reproduced It. It Doesn’t.A 2021 Amazon Science paper claimed its method crushed conformal prediction. It never actually tested conformal prediction on forecasting —…
