Diah Ramli·Jul 3Why Smart People Make Terrible Decisions When They’re MoodyStarting yesterday morning, my day was a complete disaster.
Kaylen Stuart·Mar 16The Novice Explorer’s Guide to the Gambler’s Fallacy in TestingDispatch from the Patterned Dice
Shahmurad Orujov·Jan 5Why You Can’t Beat Baccarat: A Mathematical Proof Using Markov ChainsThe casino doesn’t need luck. It has math. Here’s why your “winning strategy” is doomed from the start.
Arkajit Banerjee·Oct 7, 2025The Market’s Biggest Lie: Why a “Hot” Stock Doesn’t Owe You a DropYou’ve seen it before. A stock like NVIDIA goes on a tear, climbing day after day. A voice in your head whispers, “It can’t go up forever…
The Answer Is 42·Dec 31, 2024Neil deGrass Tyson’s Flawed Gambler LogicNeil deGrass Tyson has shared one of his favorite stories about gambling on various podcasts that dive into the flawed logic many gamblers…
Pascal Bercker·Sep 16, 2024Gaming Strategies and Expected ValuesHow do you compute the expected value of a wager or some other event? Consider the following question from the educational website…A response icon1A response icon1
Catalin Barboianu, PhD·Sep 14, 2024Expecting Too Much from Randomness: The Gambler’s FallacyThe gambler’s fallacy is defined as one’s fallacious belief that the likelihood of the occurrence of a random event is influenced by…
Mahir YUKSEL·Sep 9, 2024Kayıptan Kaçınma!Hikayemizin başlangıç noktasında, oldukça basit ama herkesi eşit derecede ilgilendiren iki sorum var: “Geçmiş, geleceği belirleyebilir mi?”…
Tim Sheehan·May 2, 2024Parameterizing umpire biases using MLB Statcast data. Part 1.Cognitive biases are an active area of research in psychology and economics. These biases can take many forms including well known examples…
