Pascal Bercker·1d agoPrecise Bayesian Conditioning: STEP Probability Meets Netica“Given that” is the most dangerous phrase in probability. — Keith McNulty
Pascal Bercker·Oct 27A Prime Example of PruningHow a little number theory and factorizing make a Bayesian network much more efficient.A response icon1A response icon1
Pascal Bercker·May 7Classical versus Bayesian Modeling With Bayesian NetworksParameter Learning With Hiearchical Bayesian Networks - A Bayesian hierarchy of data, uncertainty, and hidden probabilities
Pascal Bercker·Apr 15Think Bayesian Dice!This comes from the second edition of this book: THINK BAYES 2e! by author and educator Allen Downey (with an accompanying website and…A response icon1A response icon1
Pascal Bercker·Mar 29A Simple Numerical PuzzleThis is a simple numerical puzzle from the Brilliant.org educational website.
Pascal Bercker·Mar 28Rock, Paper, Scissors, Fire, and WaterI was reading Cole Frederick’s article on possible strategies for RPS + Fire + Water. I decided it would be a useful exercise to model this…A response icon1A response icon1
Pascal Bercker·Mar 22An Exercise In Conditional Probability — From 1000 Exercises In ProbabilityThis is not particularly difficult, but it’s important to pay attention to the sequence of events to get the model right. Let’s first get…A response icon1A response icon1
Pascal Bercker·Mar 184 Pizzas for 7 Friends — Who Will Get Their Pizza? A Combinatorics ProblemAnother probability problem from Barber’s book, Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning (draft 2025). We will model this as a kind of…A response icon1A response icon1
Pascal Bercker·Mar 17Constructing a Bayesian Belief Network — Who Wins This Game?This exercise comes from a very recent (2025) online textbook on Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning by David Barber.A response icon1A response icon1
