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Avoid a Recession Trap? It’s Not About the Markets

17 min readMay 28, 2026

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Scrabble tiles spell out the word “RECESSION.”
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

Every once in a while, recession fears dominate headlines.

And many people obsess over this kind of doomsday-peddling.

However, as CNN’s David Goldman wrote recently, “Economists have been predicting or warning about a recession every single year for the past eight years, and they were only right once — kinda.”

Even the famous yield-curve-inversion recession signal, which correctly signaled 8 out of 8 recessions since 1968, has been signaling a recession for nearly four years now, falsely, so far.

That’s because recessions are impossible to predict reliably.

What we do know is that there will be another recession, and another after that, and more after that one. That’s because, since the end of World War II, the US has experienced 12 recessions. Once every 6.75 years.

Most lasted less than a year, and the longest was 18 months. But if you make the wrong moves as a result of a recession, or…

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Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

Financial Strategy
Financial Strategy

Published in Financial Strategy

From financial goals to success — follow us and learn how to develop your path