Notorious asteroid 2024 YR4 won’t crash into the moon after all

Of all the asteroids that have imperiled the planet, 2024 YR4 is unparalleled. Soon after it was spotted in December 2024, worldwide telescopic observations quickly positioned it as the most dangerous space rock ever discovered—one that stood a 3.1 percent (or 1-in-32) chance of crashing into Earth on December 22, 2032. If it were to hit one of the cities potentially in its path, this 60-meter asteroid would have unleashed a force comparable to several atomic bombs, devastating the unfortunate metropolis.

An Earth impact was eventually ruled out in February of last year. But a late plot twist revealed 2024 YR4 stood a 4.3 percent (1-in-23) chance of slamming into our moon on the same date. Now a concerted effort by astronomers indicates the asteroid will comfortably miss our alabaster companion, too—by 21,200 kilometers.

“We think this is certainly the faintest solar system object that has ever been observed,” says Andy Rivkin, an astronomer and planetary defense researcher at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, who led the JWST effort to track 2024 YR4.