'Iran's trying to avoid direct confrontation, whereas Israel's trying to provoke reaction from Iran'

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00:00 For more, we can also speak to Filippo Dionisi, a senior lecturer in politics at the University

00:05 of Bristol.

00:06 Filippo, thank you for joining the program.

00:10 How significant were these strikes that we saw?

00:15 Well, I think, you know, this is part of the process of attack and retaliations that we

00:21 witnessed in the past few weeks between Iran and Israel directly.

00:26 And this is the latest development, although there is no official confirmation that today's

00:32 attack was actually perpetrated by Israel.

00:35 That remains anyway the most likely option.

00:37 I think what is relevant is the type of interpretation that we can give of this latest attack.

00:43 And as your reporter was saying a few minutes ago, it looks like this attack was somehow

00:49 on a lesser scale than what was initially predicted, for example.

00:56 And that makes us think that perhaps, you know, this cycle of retaliations that was

01:01 initially initiated on April 1st with Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus

01:08 may be coming to at least a phase of relative de-escalation.

01:13 Iranian authorities, the way in which they've responded to today's events, seem to downplay

01:19 the relevance of the event itself.

01:21 They themselves not necessarily acknowledge the fact that these attacks have been perpetrated

01:27 by Israel.

01:28 And that is also a sign of the possibility that they may not be interested in continuing

01:33 this process of retaliations against Israel in a direct manner, at least.

01:39 And so at least, you know, relatively speaking, this might be a relatively positive sign,

01:45 even though the rest of the region remain engulfed in a major conflict.

01:50 When you look at these attacks, how clear is it that, I mean, these are old foes, that

01:56 neither Israel nor Iran really understands the other?

02:02 I guess it's not a matter of misunderstanding.

02:06 I think it's a matter of different objectives at this point.

02:10 Iran has said since the beginning, since after October 7, the day of Hamas attack against

02:17 Israel, that it was not interested or did not have any motivation to upscale the conflict

02:24 to a regional level.

02:26 Israel instead has reacted to Hamas attack, also by responding to Hezbollah's attacks

02:33 from Lebanon to Israel, and has constantly tried to escalate and provoke a reaction also

02:40 from Iran.

02:41 Right.

02:42 So it's a matter of misunderstanding that Iran is trying to basically avoid direct interstate

02:47 confrontation with Israel, whereas Israel is trying to provoke a reaction from Iran.

02:53 There is possibly a strategy from Israel and the Israeli government here taking place.

02:58 Attracting a reaction from Iran means also diverting international attention from the

03:05 horrific violence that is taking place in Gaza, for which Israel is accused of genocide,

03:11 by the way.

03:12 So here we go.

03:13 It's a plane against the car, against Iran, means also a way to divert attention and to

03:19 once again revive the narrative of the Israeli government of Israel being under attack.

03:25 So I guess that's more the kind of dynamic that we've seen.

03:27 It's not necessarily a matter of not understanding each other, but perhaps having different objectives.

03:32 US media also reported that Washington had advanced notice of these strikes, but did

03:36 not endorse them and did not play any role.

03:40 Will these actions likely lead to a further wedge, driving a wedge in US-Israeli relations?

03:49 Well, it's hard to say.

03:52 As we saw today, the UN Security Council and the United States have voted against the recognition

03:58 of Palestinian statehood one more time.

04:00 And that means once again that the US is firmly behind Israel.

04:05 And therefore, I don't think we will see, we will witness any major divergence between

04:10 Israel and the United States.

04:13 Although it's true that there are divergences, and the two of them, they are behind different

04:20 strategies.

04:21 The US and the European Union and European states in general are pushing for a diplomatic

04:26 resolution of the Israel-Iran conflict, of course, whereas Israel, on the other hand,

04:32 has a more bellicose stance.

04:34 But again, today's attack seems to leave the door open for a possible de-escalation between

04:39 the two.

04:40 All right, Philippe.

04:41 Thank you very much for your time.

04:42 Philippe de Nijy, joining us.

04:43 Thank you.

04:43 joining us.

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