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00:00Week number 15 around the NFL starts on this Thursday night with an awesome short week Thursday night football
00:07Game a divisional duel between the two, California teams squaring off today in the NFC West
00:14It is the San Francisco 49ers at home in Santa Clara
00:18hosting the LA Rams and now the number DRS at a flat three that field goal in favor of the
00:2549ers total working its way up despite being a short week from 48 in a hook earlier this week to 49 and
00:34a half Donnie short week Thursday night football game
00:38But the implications the ramifications of what this game means in the NFC West
00:44You really have to put it in to context and it cannot be
00:49Undersold the Rams right now a game back of the Seattle Seahawks
00:53After winning a wild and high-scoring game on Sunday at home over the Buffalo Bills
00:59The Niners snapped a three-game skid on Sunday at home against the Chicago Bears
01:05To hold on to just a little bit of life in the NFC West in their playoff
01:10Outlook there is the in division rivalry the in-state showdown
01:15And of course the personal matchup between the two head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay
01:22How do you see Thursday night playing out in Santa Clara?
01:26Well first I do agree with the line here some people hell the 49ers haven't had a good season
01:30And you know the Rams look like they're hot right now fun team to watch and play once again
01:34Keep in mind road Thursday football one of the toughest environments that you can have and also both of these teams know each other
01:40So we should get a good battle the 49 and a half first inclination
01:43I say it probably should go over but once again, it's a short workweek on two teams that know each other
01:48Are there weapons all over the place? Yes, there are but get into the 50s
01:51On a Thursday as we've seen so many times on primetime, maybe not the best effort
01:55But the one thing I did like last week is we saw a glimpse of what we thought that 49ers are supposed to be
02:00Not the team getting blown out and back-to-back performances, but Brock Purdy
02:04What are we known for?
02:05Efficiency in the pocket Ben 20 of 25 325 and two touchdown passes are the Bears the best team in the world at 49 out
02:11No, they're not but they do have a solid defense and they absolutely carved them up and the ability to say my top two running
02:16Backs are down Isaac Arendo's in 15 for 72 scores, then he gets injured at the end of the game
02:21But it still doesn't matter. They were runaway victors in that 38 to 13 game and also the Rams
02:27You're looking at them now with the pressure on them coming into this game and not so much on the 49ers
02:32And you must sit down. That's crazy. If the 49ers lose they're out of it
02:35They're still playing from that mindset of people have already written us off
02:39Let's just try to surprise and get back into the race. Well, the Rams now are looking we just knocked off the Buffalo Bills
02:44We win this game now, you have to worry about us making a playoff run and possibly winning this division
02:49I do think we get a lot of excitement from a lot of star players
02:52But just to start the conversation back off Ben
02:54I think that minus two and a half to minus three is correct here
02:57If you ask me to pick a side in this game
02:59I think it's the 49ers because home field advantage is key on a Thursday night and you finally got a good taste back in
03:05Your mouth of what that offense is supposed to do
03:08It's not a large trip for LA by any means
03:12But Donnie if this game was on a Sunday even in Santa Clara
03:15I would look to the Rams with it being on a short week Thursday after the gauntlet in the high scoring intensive fair
03:22They played on Sunday afternoon against Buffalo. It just complicates the matter in my estimation
03:30I do think we will see some points when we get to 50 and over that total of 49 and a half now
03:36I'm not entirely sure but from the spread and then trend
03:40Perspective of where both of these teams enter Thursday night San Francisco six and seven football team a
03:47favorite in 11 of 13 games this year all six outright wins as a
03:53Favorite as well as they did last week against Chicago. They cover the number
03:58In fact ERS in their six wins this year all of them as a favorite
04:02They have covered five times in all five covers total to the over San Francisco has scored at least
04:0930 points the Rams as the underdog
04:12Three and four both straight up and against the spread if LA is going to cover a number and now we see that flat
04:19Field-goal price tonight entering Thursday. They have won outright this year
04:24So in all three outright wins or covers as an underdog
04:29Total also to the over and there is the familiarity between these two teams
04:35Divisional foes in the same state and of course the head coaches know each other very well
04:41The old pals of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVeigh Shanahan has dominated the series between these two
04:47He is 10 and 6 against Sean McVeigh
04:51But McVeigh and the Rams have won the last two including the opening meeting in week number three of this regular season
04:58Donnie let's get to the team comparison and what this game means the importance of it on this Thursday night
05:05Again, the Rams only a game behind Seattle LA has beaten the Seahawks already this season
05:11They will end the year at home
05:13Against Seattle plus 160 the price to win the NFC West the Seahawks a slight odds on favorite at minus
05:21135 the price for San Francisco this night despite snapping the three-game slide is not overly
05:29Optimistic at this moment Donnie and the reason why it's not just Sam friend six and seven overall record
05:35It's the 49ers mark in the NFC West
05:38They are one in three may have lost to all three divisional opponents this year
05:44That is a very uphill climb to make for San Francisco to contend for a divisional title
05:51No, you're right about it
05:52And if you look at even the remaining parts of the schedule outside of the game against the Rams
05:56Which will be a tough one you go on the road against the Dolphins fighting for their playoff lives as well
06:01And then you take on the Detroit Lions it is at home, but still Detroit probably looking for that number one seed
06:06They'll still be playing hard that football game obviously and then the end the season
06:09Maybe the card will still think they're somewhat in it at that point some tie-breaking situations
06:13You got a long way to go. So I understand that whole theory. You gotta play each football game
06:18It is you can't win four games in one I get it, but the 49ers no doubt in my mind
06:23They lose this football game tonight Ben
06:24They're out of it in the NFC West because that will drop them a division record terrible
06:28They'll lose just about every tiebreakers and they go
06:30Okay to have any chance
06:32Everybody has to lose and you must run the table against three teams try and make the playoffs
06:36Already with the football team that doesn't have a great record in the 49ers. That would be a wrap at that point
06:40So it feels like been a last-stand effort tonight for San Francisco for one final push down the home stretch
06:47And for both of these teams even the Rams who are a game above 500
06:52Donnie the best path to a playoff spot is more than likely win the NFC West
06:57LA's place to make the postseason plus 156 their number to win the division plus
07:04160 because it's an eight and five commanders team that is in the final spot to earn that wild-card birth to the
07:12NFC postseason, it's the same as Seattle right now in the NFC West. Let's see more from Thursday night
07:20The prop perspective for Thursday night football to kick off week number 15 tonight in Santa Clara a huge
07:28Divisional duel between the 49ers and the Rams. Let's look at those two signal callers, Donnie
07:34There is no doubt that when you look at what Los Angeles put out there in terms of offensive production on
07:40Sunday against Buffalo, that is the vision that is picture-perfect
07:45Matthew Stafford connecting with Puka Nakua and Cooper Cup
07:49Continuously, we see the number tonight for Stafford
07:53244 and a half passing touchdowns prop at one and a hook Brock Purdy
07:59Also a highly successful day on Sunday more than 330 yards George Kittle had the most
08:06Receiving yards, but Juwan Jennings was the guy to hit Peter, San Francisco
08:12Of course their season defined by injuries
08:14No, Brandon, I you will talk about the running game and what San Francisco will have defensively in just a moment
08:22But how do you compare these two QBs entering Thursday night?
08:26Yeah more talent obviously on Matthew Stafford side better arm strength there, you know more, you know
08:31Ingrained in the NFL culture because he does have an NFL championship here, but Brock Purdy certainly gonna get a lot of money next year
08:36But that doesn't matter
08:37It's about the here and now in this game if you said Donnie give me one quarterback that you're probably trying to look at
08:41Go over his props here and let you start with passing yards
08:44It's probably gonna be Brock Purdy's 258 and a half. He said wow
08:47That's interesting with those wide receivers and Matthew Stafford. Didn't you see what they did last week against the Buffalo Bills?
08:52Yes, and I don't want to say that's an anomaly because when Matthew Stafford heats up is actually that what there's none better man
08:57It's perfection. It's pretty to watch and he's got weapons on the outside
09:01But now I look at saying okay
09:02Matthew Stafford has a legitimate bonafide number one in the backfield Kyron Williams that he can lean on at times and you understand this man
09:09Kyron Williams gonna probably get at least even though it's a short week 20 to 25 carries
09:13Maybe at a minimum tonight
09:15Try to stabilize that ground game and get that play action passing underway against a decent defense here for the 49ers
09:21But Brock Purdy on the other side a lot more question marks on that running game
09:24I understand Kyle Shanahan is a genius in the running game next man up
09:28They can do damage because it wasn't as if like oh, no
09:32Christian McCaffrey is not gonna play this year
09:33Jordan Mason look like he had a legitimate chance if he stayed healthy to have the rushing title in the NFL because how good they
09:38Draw up the running game. So now you're down to possibly your four-string running back
09:42You got to lean more on Brock Purdy and you should right like he's your quarterback your franchise guy
09:47I'm gonna get a lot of money in the offseason. These are the games that you can't say
09:51Hey, let's lean on Kyle
09:53You should check to get six or seven carries when he barely gets any because we need some extra running game
09:57I need Brock Purdy to shine tonight. So I look at those two price points to 44 and a half and 258 and a half
10:03I'm more likely to take Brock Purdy tonight over the 258 and a half then I am Matthew Stafford over the 244 and a half
10:10Both of these quarterbacks have consistently gone over these numbers in the last month and a half or so
10:16Stafford and five of the Rams last seven Purdy and three of the Niners last five
10:22325 and two touchdowns for Brock Purdy against Chicago both of the receiving touchdowns to Jawan
10:29Jennings Matthew Stafford he threw for nearly 300 on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills the RS
10:37multiple passing touchdowns for Stafford without an
10:41Interception in four consecutive games if we think we are getting points tonight
10:45I might look at that passing touchdowns prop for Stafford given the
10:51Consistency now to some big running back news Isaac
10:54Arendo is planning to play for San Francisco, of course entering last week both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason
11:02Placed on injured reserve so far this week
11:05Arendo has been a limited participant at the limited number of practices for Thursday night
11:11But ESPN's Adam Schefter saying Garendo plans to play no props out
11:16Just yet for Kyron Williams. You see the any time touchdown priced on he at minus
11:23150 he has scored in 10 of 13 games for the Rams this year including multiple rushing scores a week ago against the Bills
11:31Yeah, his his updated number here is also minus 145 and for a game that you look at with roughly 50 points Ben
11:37These are some pretty good numbers that you're getting minus 145 for Kyron Patrick Taylor minus 135 if he fills in for Garendo or listed
11:44With the same touchdown props here Cooper Cup who can do cool a plus 110 plus 125
11:48We'll get them in just a little bit
11:49But yes
11:50It's the thing I always try to balance these games out with if you're coming in with an injury
11:55I don't care if you say you're healthy and ready to go
11:57It only takes one or two calories to say, you know what?
11:59I'm not right and you step out of the game and you lose your profit and your angle on that
12:03So for my money if you were betting it back
12:05The only guy I could look at was Kyron Williams
12:07but also as I say that there is
12:09Opportunity for some really low numbers here like guys like Kyle use check and sometimes you don't get caught up in it
12:14But he needs like basically one catch to probably hit his total
12:17Which I think is like six and a half or seven and a half yards receiving and you know
12:20Kyle's getting it every once in a while on the goal line third and one reverse out hand it to the fullback
12:25So maybe a sneaky prop could be used check. But for basically what I'm telling you guys
12:29I'm not really looking from a San Francisco backfield perspective here. There's other guys like maybe Debo Samuel could help out
12:36Yeah, we'll check that out
12:37We'll talk those top targets in just a little bit PRS. We've already kind of talked about the game
12:42We will more on the other side
12:44Yes
12:44The one thing we didn't really get into is those pass catchers for tonight, of course for LA
12:50Pukonukuwa Cooper Cup on the other side for San Francisco
12:54Juwan Jennings George Kittle or maybe a Debo Samuel sighting on this Thursday. Take it away
13:02Yeah, you know
13:03I love to buy into those scenarios Ben because we're always looking at the X's and O's how many catches you have how many touchdowns
13:09You have how many yards you have but sometimes there's something to it where the wide receivers like I'm angry the quarterbacks like I know
13:15I have to get you the football the head coach goes like boy
13:17We'd love him to participate more and you see the past four games
13:20He's been obsolete in that offense and this isn't one of those like well, what do you want him to do?
13:24I awesome kittles awesome birdies running with his legs Christian McCaffrey's in the backfield. It's just not his time yet right now
13:30No, it should be his time. But you want Jennings shouldn't be your number one wide receiver. It's supposed to be Debo Samuel
13:35Look at that paycheck
13:36Look at the performance over the past couple years when does he step up but the people are buying in Ben because Monday Tuesday
13:42This line was like 46 and a half for receiving prop for Debo Samuel now
13:47It's up to 49 and a half and I teased it when we were talking about earlier
13:49It's not even necessarily that passing prop the receiving prop number
13:53I might be looking into a rushing and receiving if you're down to your fourth string running back and people is not getting the carries
13:59I don't understand. I'm not talking about six seven carries, but at least three or four of those
14:04I got burned in that night game in Buffalo was like this is the perfect Debo weather game
14:08He didn't even get a carry in that football game then so I don't know if I'm gonna get burned again
14:12But it feels like sooner than later. He should have a come-out performance. No
14:18Yeah, DRS. I completely agree
14:20I mean you have to get him incorporated one of the reasons that you could argue over the last few years
14:26That it's not Brock Purdy as a game manager
14:29But Brock Purdy taking advantage of all the talented assets that he has is because if McCaffrey goes down
14:36All right, you still have Iuke Debo and George Kittle
14:40All right, Brendan Iuke is not there
14:42Juwan Jennings has stepped up in a big way
14:44But you would still expect the IRS as this season has been defined for San Francisco by injuries
14:50That if Devo Samuel has been fully healthy, he's been banged up a time or two this season
14:55He should be involved in the offense in a big reason. The offense is still highly productive
15:01It has not been the case
15:02We'll talk more Thursday night when our three starts what an end to our second hour here on the early line on a Thursday
15:10We welcome you to our number three our third and final live right here on this Thursday on the early line on sports grid
15:17He is Donnie right side
15:18I am Ben Stevens one final hour to go and we will preview a ton of
15:23Thursday night football a huge divisional duel tonight in the NFC West between the in-state and familiar foes the San Francisco
15:3149ers hosting the Los Angeles Rams previews of Thursday night football prop perspective with TV Tom Vecchio in
15:38Just a little bit as well
15:40We'll go around the association now outside of the NBA Cup on this Thursday as well
15:47They are as so much to dive into here in this third and final hour on the early line
15:52It's great stuff and also keep in mind when you're taking a look at a there's not a lot of college football
15:57We just previewed Army Navy, which we wonderful on Saturday
15:59But you start a great NFL week tonight on a Thursday with a really key important game in the NFC West and also keep in
16:05a full slate of games on a Sunday afternoon some we haven't had for a long time and then Ben we cap it with a
16:11Dueling doubleheader on Monday night football. None of those games look great
16:15No, they don't but we still have exciting times in football and also as you pointed out next weekend
16:20I mean might as well be a holiday weekend at this point college football playoff Friday night Saturday NFL games Thursday right into Sunday
16:28Fantastic stuff on the way out. So even though football season is on the way out
16:32It's gonna go on the way out with a bang and I love it
16:35NFL games on Saturday as well next weekend. We've got so much Wow. Yeah
16:41Yeah
16:42Give me
16:44What are the games
16:46Give me to get we know the games. What are they? We have certainly we certainly know the games
16:50I'll track them down for you right now
16:54Here we go, here we go, here we go
16:57Saturday the Texans Wow the Chiefs 1 p.m. Eastern Time NBC
17:02The Steelers at the Ravens
17:05430 p.m. Eastern Time on
17:07Fox to go up right against or tripleheader of college football playoff on campus
17:14Well, I'm hearing that's what I'm hearing now sounds like there's no see they're not calling in the heavy hitters for PFT
17:19They got me talking NFL coverage on pro football today with an additional hour
17:25Leading up to the 1 p.m. Start in Kansas City. How about that?
17:29Wait, what explain yourself? What do you mean?
17:32So we're doing our normal college football today free game show
17:36Uh-huh, nine to noon nine. Okay next Saturday. Yep preview of the college football playoff game start
17:42Yeah at noon Eastern Time and then we are doing an additional hour of pregame coverage
17:48Will you take off to see you add in a P? It's pro football today, Kevin Wall. Wow, Joe Lisi
17:55Ben Stevens
17:57They say if ratings go through the roof we might have to reevaluate a few things for Sunday
18:03Yeah, sounds like I have to run a couple burners at that show on Saturday and say, you know, what's going on here?
18:08We're throwing off to Mojo. This doesn't look right. This guy doesn't know anything about pro football
18:12How's he talking about at this point?
18:14I think there's gonna be a couple guys like Joe Smith X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 with just a little eggshell out there
18:20Remember that by the way Twitter memories have the eggshells out there. They still have those or no not anymore
18:25Are they just like a blank? It's like a gray
18:28Outline of a person. Yeah. Yeah, I do. I do miss the eggshells though
18:33Yeah, all right
18:34Anyway, let's hear from the people as we get ready for Thursday night football in the start of week 15 Rams Niners tonight in
18:42Santa Clara San Francisco three-point home favorite a total despite it being a short week is lofty
18:49Standing currently at 49 and a half. What is the best bet for Thursday night football in Northern, California?
18:56You tell us it's time for fade the public
19:06Now if we are in the fading the public some interesting results
19:10What is the best bet for Thursday night football at Sports Green on Twitter?
19:15Is it the Niners as the field goal favorite the Rams?
19:18Catching points in this matchup over that high total of forty nine and a half or do we stay under on a short week?
19:25The overwhelming majority of the public DRS backing the Rams as the underdog getting that full and flat number of a field goal
19:3544% of the vote LA as the underdog tonight in Santa Clara
19:40And also this is big with the line itself, too, right?
19:43I think this might have been a little bit different if that was the 49 is a minus two and a half as opposed to three
19:47So take some of that in and also, you know outlets out there
19:49Let's just take a look at some of the live numbers fan those sports book minus three minus 105 other places
19:54Maybe minus two and a half
19:55So those numbers might be out there in the field
19:57But that is a key number in a close divisional game on a Thursday night that will play into it
20:01So I see that plus three forty four percent right now currently I understand that but I actually went with the 49ers just again
20:07Simplicity if I think the 49ers are gonna win
20:09I'll take them to win by the three points and or by margin
20:12The one interesting part is we used to have a decisive cutoff on some of these totals
20:1749 and a half is a lot of points, but there are weapons on both sides
20:20But look at the splits 19% of the public voting for the over under at fifteen point one percent
20:26So a lot of people taking into notion short work
20:28We got banged up teams so much importance on these games that we look at because sometimes you can't really equate sports
20:34But you can if that makes sense the NBA Cup you see how important those games are and the NBA teams are taking them seriously
20:40But yeah
20:40we talked about one game 91 90 the other one 108 100 well under the total of both of those because of the importance where the
20:47Defense gets ratcheted up. There is no tomorrow for the 49ers if they lose
20:50They're gonna want to make sure that they're on their P's and Q's on offense moving the football
20:54But maybe not saying now's the time to run the double reverse pass to Debo Samuel
20:58Let's just keep it a little bit simple
21:00So I do agree with the public slightly going towards the over because I do think there's points
21:04But also at the same time if you voted for the under I can see it as well
21:08If you are playing the contrarian role tonight
21:11Do you think the 49ers cover as a favorite at home or at least?
21:15They are the right side to back that flat number of 3drs
21:19Could be a push on either side depending on what the public decides to do and you are thinking under 49 and a half
21:26It was 48 and a half earlier in the week
21:28It is up by a point if you are taking the trend perspective of this game
21:34It actually makes sense to look at points as well
21:37We just saw the Rams playing the highest scoring game of the season
21:4186 combined where it seemed that neither LA's defense nor LA's offense
21:46Could stop what they were doing for the defense that was get a stop for the Rams
21:51It was scoring with Matthew Stafford throwing it across the yard to Puka Nakua Cooper cup and then Kyron Williams
21:58Adding in multiple rushing scores as well
22:00San Francisco snapping a three-game slide putting up 38 points blowing out the Bears
22:0738 to 13 the Niners have been booked as a favorite in every game
22:11But two since the start of last year Donnie all six wins outright for Sam Fran this year as the favorite side
22:18They have covered in five of six in all five covers a game has gone over
22:24San Francisco has scored at least 30 points when the Rams have won outright as an underdog
22:29Seven games as a dog this year for Los Angeles
22:33Three outright wins the only three covers for the Rams as a dog as well
22:38all three outright victories and thus covers a total to the over as
22:43Well for me, it is hard to bet me under tonight
22:47But if I am fading the idea of a short week in offensive production, then I just stay away
22:52There are certain other ways I would approach
22:55Scoring those guys to hit pay dirt in the quarterbacks to throw for touchdowns Matthew Stafford over a
23:01Passing touchdown and a half would be an angle. I would look
23:05Yeah, I think both of the quarterbacks to have success on the Monday Night Football game
23:09We thought we'd get a lot of points there in the dome because you're not worried in December about rainy conditions or cold conditions
23:14You do have some elements in the forecast tonight and the 49ers home ballpark here rain
23:1955 to 56 percent precipitation percentage, so it's probably gonna happen, but here's the issue or non-issue
23:25I should say it's gonna be in the mid 50s
23:26Which is not cold and also windy conditions that might pop up not gonna be there tonight. Very tame
23:32Yeah, so don't get scared off by hey, look, it's drizzling out there. You know, that turns out
23:36It's the rain and the cold that you probably worry about is the combination
23:39I don't think we have too many issues tonight if it is a drizzle or a slight rain in the forecast
23:44And we will talk injury availability for this short week Thursday game later on in this third and final hour
23:51Tonight starts week number 15 of this
23:542024 National Football League regular season just four weeks remain in the regular season
24:00Every game for a team in the hunt for the postseason
24:04Has that added on?
24:06Significance in DRS that starts tonight with a huge divisional duel within the NFC West between the Rams and the 49ers
24:13But it continues on Sunday, maybe some not in division or even in the same conference
24:20But monumental matchups in that marquee window starting at 425 p.m. Eastern Time
24:28including a game of the year potential game of the year 5 the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills on
24:36Sunday in the Motor City, you see the numbers there. We expect this game to be
24:42incredible low
24:44Spread between the two but a very high total two and a half points now
24:49Once again in favor of the Lions over under DRS might be our highest of this season if it holds at
24:5654 and a half. What do you expect for this matchup between two Super Bowl frontrunners in the Motor City on Sunday?
25:05Expect a great game with a lot of playoff implications in both conferences here now
25:09Also, we just saw the Buffalo Bills go on the road and lose a tough one in a high-scoring battle in a dome
25:14Against the Los Angeles Rams. So where's this game going to be played not in Buffalo in the snow, but in a dome
25:19So expectations should be high that scoring, you know shouldn't be at a premium
25:22We should get a lot of it at that point and rightfully so at 54 and a half
25:26But it is interesting them doing the show yesterday and most of the week one and a half's steam hit that line overnight
25:31We now see two and a half. So I'm interested to see where that is by game time
25:35But again when you're just breaking the game down, you know my affinity for Detroit
25:39I think they're the best team in the NFL therefore technically in the NFL
25:42I do think they win this game, but sometimes you take a look at you know
25:46Systems and games and how it works
25:48like if the Buffalo Bills as dumb as this sounds what it went on the road last week and knocked off the Rams like
25:54This could be a letdown spot for Buffalo because they got that all-important win and now if they lose this game and it's still in the
25:59NFC it's not that big a deal. You could still chase down, Kansas City
26:02Well now you lost that game on the road you come into this game and lose two in a row and now it's not just
26:08Hey Ben, let's chase down the Kansas City Chiefs. It's oh no
26:12We're the third seed now possibly because right around the corner now is the Pittsburgh Steelers if they can pull out a victory
26:17You know for the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia
26:20So the ramifications are big and I don't think we see three in this game as a line
26:24But if I like Detroit and like them all year
26:26You're just asking them to win a home football game and I think they do that
26:32Fifty-four and a half is a very lofty number
26:35It will be the seventh game this season that Detroit has played with a total of 50 plus in the previous six
26:42They had gone under in four of them
26:44But they did go over of course last week on a Thursday in a high-scoring game
26:50Against Green Bay for Detroit DRS
26:52I want to see how healthy the defense looks by the time we reach Sunday Lee McNeil who?
26:57Exited the second half against Green Bay in concussion protocol with the extended time a full participant at practice
27:04Earlier this week some other guys though, like Josh Paschal limited participant
27:09The Lions have been dealing with a litany of injury issues on that side of the football and we have seen how historically good
27:17The Buffalo Bills offense and Josh Allen has looked the last few weeks
27:22He mentioned the Pittsburgh Steelers 10 win football team, Philadelphia
27:2611 win football team in the race DRS of playoff positioning in either conference
27:32Two huge
27:34Interconference matchups on Sunday afternoon this one in state in the Commonwealth the Keystone clash in
27:41Philadelphia between the Eagles and the Steelers Philly at home
27:46Five and a half point favorite total stands at just 42 and a hook Donnie
27:51That seems like a rather large spread in favor of the birds. Is it too big? I
27:56Don't think it is because I think the Eagles are the better team in the matchups in the Eagles favor
28:00Also, keep in mind the Eagles are at home
28:02But also George Pickens not at wide receiver
28:04That is a big miss because the Eagles have one of the better young secondaries in football
28:08Now you're relying on guys like Mike Williams still trying to ingrain him up over there
28:11Maybe more on Pat Fryer moved over the middle and a running game in Najee Harrison Jalen Warren, which might be center stage
28:17But I gotta tell you
28:18Vandal opened up at the beginning of the week been at forty four and a half as a total in this game
28:22It's dropped to forty two and a half. I think both of these offenses will be able to move the football this weekend
28:27I think there's a legitimate chance. They could take that down cold conditions
28:30Yes about 40 a kickoff no rain in the forecast and last week
28:33He did see some field goal struggles with Jake Elliott shouldn't have that this week five mile an hour or less with windy conditions
28:40So why not to what we think are two really good field goal kickers and two offenses that should be able to move
28:45Why can't they both approach 20 points to get that total?
28:48I think I might be total hunting more than side hunting in this football game
28:52Two top five scoring defenses. Maybe that's why we expect a lower scoring game
28:57But in six of the seven starts that Russell Wilson has made for Pittsburgh
29:01The Steelers have played to the over Philly on a nine-game win streak
29:05They have gone under in six of those nine wins
29:08Props respect for Thursday TV Tom next we welcome you back to this Thursday live right here on the early line on
29:16Sports grid it is now time for the prop perspective for the game that begins week 15 in the NFL tonight in Santa Clara
29:23It's the 49ers and the Rams and thus it is TV Tom
29:27Vecchio live right here on this Thursday on the early line on sports grid Vecchio
29:33what a pleasure it was to finally after three and a half years of being colleagues in some form or
29:40Another to meet each other in person at the illustrious sports grid holiday party on Tuesday night
29:47What a time Vecchio what an absolute time
29:50It was absolutely fantastic to meet you along with everybody else
29:55Great time like you said you had three and a half years in the making and I think we are
30:00Transitioning to the perfect game to come off a great party into a great game for Thursday night football. Let's roll
30:07Mmm, I think that means that I'll go. All right, I will go because really good time
30:12That was really that was really good Tom. Thank you. Very solid very well done
30:17It sets us up perfectly for success
30:20So let's dive right into it what the numbers are telling you Vecchio about how tonight's game will play out between the 49ers and the Rams
30:28San Francisco three-point home favorite that flat number of three could turn out to be
30:34Very very key total slightly up to forty nine and a half for a short week
30:39Thursday night football game with monumental implications for that divisional championship race in the NFC West
30:47So Vecchio spread total, what are you expecting for Thursday night football?
30:52Obviously expecting a close game as that spread would indicate. I'm on the Rams. I'm also on the under today
30:58You know a lot of injury questions at you know, surprise surprise for the 49ers time and time again this year
31:03You know missing some key offensive lineman. Isaac Arendo is apparently good to go
31:07I have some severe doubts about his actual availability tonight and you know, realistically the Rams they're cruising right now, right?
31:15like they are building with some momentum and the lack of
31:19Consistency plus some of the storylines that we have going from the 49ers on offense
31:23I got to be on the Rams on this side in a game ending
31:26Let's call it 24 to 20
31:28But I think we are gonna be right at that number
31:31I will get shade on the under and if it starts off slow, which I won't be surprised for these two teams
31:35I'm gonna be looking to get a middle, you know over 40 over 41 and a half and still beyond that under 49 and a half
31:41as well
31:43Yeah short work week this week. Well, we see a play out major playoff implications specifically there in the NFC West
31:49Who's gonna win who's gonna lose? We'll find out certainly a little bit of rain in the forecast tonight, Tom
31:53No real windy conditions and it's not gonna be cold weather
31:56But let's take a look at some of those quarterback props Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford last week Brock Purdy woke up in that offense
32:01Very efficient for us for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns
32:04He's listed at 258 and a half with his passing prop for Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford at 244 and a half
32:10And then both of these guys juiced over one and a half touchdown passes Purdy minus 120 and Stafford minus 128
32:16Are you leaning either way to one of these quarterbacks Tom?
32:19I'm leaning on Purdy and it's because I have my doubts about Isaac
32:24Arendo like we're getting reports from Schefter that Garendo plans to play
32:27He's going to play like whatever we get leading up to game time
32:31And ultimately if he's out, it's gonna be Patrick Taylor and Keyshawn Vaughn in the back
32:35They're like, what are we dealing with? Like what are the three outcomes essentially at least in my mind Garendo is good to go
32:40He sees 18 carries 400 plus yards or he's actually not good to go or he's actually a decoy out there
32:45Or he goes out there and he actually ends up getting hurt and he can't return
32:49So what does that mean?
32:49That means that Purdy has to do more like how much do they really want to be trusting a fourth or fifth string running?
32:55Back with their season like not mathematically on the line, but they were approaching that point
32:59So I just want to trust Purdy who like you said really solid last week
33:03So I don't mind the yards for Purdy
33:05But I actually think the attempts are best
33:07Because we're gonna have to see them move the ball and get that offense going like a fourth or fifth string running back when they're
33:13missing two offensive linemen I
33:15Give me party time and time again
33:18So thank you
33:19You mentioned on the one side for Isaac Arendo limited participant at practice this week in the very limited
33:26Practices that San Francisco can even hold on a short week
33:29But ESPN's Adam Schefter earlier this morning saying that correndo plans to play what exactly that means
33:36How effective can he be that remains to be seen still his props off the board?
33:42Let's go to LA's running back in Kyron Williams 29 carries 87 yards to rushing scores on
33:49Sunday against Buffalo first five games of the year Kyron Williams hit painter next four games
33:56Did not score now is scored in three consecutive for LA
34:00How do you expect the Rams on this short week to utilize Kyron Williams tonight against the 49ers?
34:06You know
34:06He should be of course one of those main options and realistically when it comes to Rams offense between Kyron Williams
34:12Pukin Akua and Cooper cup essentially in a week-to-week basis
34:16I expect two of the three to have big games like two of the three to have over on their yards two of the three
34:21To hit their touchdown props wherever might be and and finding out those two
34:25I think is like the most important thing when it comes to evaluating the Rams offense
34:29So I certainly like Kyron Williams today
34:31Obviously not laying minus 150 on a touchdown on maybe work them into an SGP whatever might be but Kyron Williams and Cooper cups
34:38Gonna be number two for me today
34:39So I would actually lean towards over 17 and a half count or 17 rushing attempts for Kyron Williams
34:45That's where I would prefer to be going. Especially if there's a little bit of rain
34:48They do get out in front if the 49ers aren't able to run the ball
34:52I would expect Kyron Williams to be number one option and while Pukin Akua is great
34:55I actually prefer the yardage with Cooper Cup, which we can get to in a few minutes here. Yeah
35:00Yeah
35:00Let's take a look at those wide receivers as the pass catcher is certainly going to be
35:03Instrumental and a lot of question marks here on who's that official number one now for the 49ers
35:08Is it now Juwan Jennings who is listed at 68 and a half you take a look at the Rams here
35:12You would have thought Cooper Cup would always be the number one as long as on team. That's no longer the case Pukin Akua
35:17There's been nothing short of spectacular Tom
35:19He's listed at 88 and a half receiving our site to Cooper Cups 62 and a half and also the Deebo Samuel scenarios tonight
35:27I want the ball more. You got to get to the football more. Does he score touchdowns?
35:31Does he run the football Tom? Does he catch passes? Give us some looks here from these receiving props
35:36So for the Rams absolutely love cup over 62 and a half
35:39He didn't play against the 49ers last year
35:41But historically cup has absolutely torched the 49ers dating back to 2022 and 2021
35:46He went for 122 yards 79 yards 122 yards again and 118
35:50So give me cup over 62 and a half
35:52I don't mind him all thing into 70 plus as well on the Deebo side love Deebo for a TD will play the squeaky wheel
35:58Narrative I love that combined with the Isaac Arendo, you know question mark
36:01It is what it is Pat Taylor to be near Keishon Vaughn Israel Abakan
36:06Aban Econ, duh could be seen some carries
36:09I will take Deebo coming out of the backfield potentially for a rushing plus receiving
36:12I do like his touchdown prop at plus 145
36:15But George Kittle, I think is the answer for the 49ers if they have this inefficiency running the ball
36:19George Kittle is that safety net for Brock per game? He doesn't have to be that downfield option
36:24He is the moving the chains. Let's pick up some first downs. Let's get this offense moving option
36:28So I love cup. I really like the Deebo TD
36:31But I think the yards for kiddo are actually the safest especially if I'm personally not expecting Rendo to be a full go tonight
36:37Yeah, Vecchio as you alluded to Puka Nakua has been that top target for Matthew Stafford when both guys have been on the field
36:45We were wondering if both guys were healthy playing alongside each other who would be that number one?
36:51Cooper cup has still been able to get his we saw the vision of the Rams offense last week
36:57Of course against the Buffalo Bills. I do want to go back to Deebo Samuel
37:01A guy that has been banked up at times this year and maybe is not a hundred percent fully healthy without ineffective
37:08He has been but Tommy's played in 12 games
37:11He has two total touchdowns one on the ground one through the air. Why is tonight different?
37:17Why is Deebo Samuel going to score against this LA defense?
37:22we can factor in like I said the the correndo health the
37:26Lack of consistency from their offense overall
37:29But when push comes to shove Deebo is a great option to have the ball and I would say that Juwan Jennings is a better
37:34Like traditional route runner, but like from an actual wide receiver standpoint
37:37But getting people the ball is important when again their season is approaching being on the line
37:42They need to focus on getting him the ball
37:44So I wouldn't be surprised to see him have four or five six carries coming on the backfield
37:49Another four or five receptions getting him close to 10 11 total touches
37:53So the Russian plus receiving and just the utilization he has in the offense
37:56But as I've always said the bubble screens the jet sweeps
37:59Whatever might be getting Deebo. The ball is a good thing for the 49ers offense and they need that product offense today
38:06Make sure you see the Tom's top props right there
38:09Brock purdy over 30 and a half attempts Cooper top over his receiving yardage number and Deebo Samuel to
38:16Hit pay dirt. He has not since week number six of this season
38:20But the total is forty nine and a half tonight
38:23So offense expected TV Tom as always we appreciate the time we continue our Thursday night football breakdown
38:32We continue our Thursday night football preview here to enter week 15
38:37It starts tonight in Santa Clara on this Thursday on the early line. It's the 49ers. It's the Rams
38:43We'll start with the game DRS and then we'll get to its importance on this short week Thursday in just a moment
38:50feel feel full field goal number in favor of San Francisco three-point home favorite total for a short week at
38:58Forty nine and a half not like last week when both the Packers and the Lions had a full week of preparation
39:03After playing on Thanksgiving. This is a short week. Both teams played on Sunday afternoon in that later window
39:11San Francisco easily
39:13Dispatching the Chicago Bears not as easy for the Rams in a wild back and forth and high scoring game
39:20But a critical win for Los Angeles against Buffalo at home on
39:26Sunday three-point spread forty nine and a half. Is that number? How does DRS seeing third see Thursday night playing out?
39:33Yeah, both had nice wins last week a little bit different
39:36Obviously the 49ers in a blowout victory didn't have to use all that gas in the second half when the Rams were in one
39:41Of those back and forth games against the Buffalo Bills, which was so much fun to watch
39:45But there are big implications and I always lean towards the home team on Thursday night
39:49But if we were talking the doc right now, you probably go crazy
39:51Look at all the banged up injuries for the 49ers going up against the Rams here
39:55but still some of those keys are in place where I just look to and say Kyle Shannon at home Brock pretty waking up last
40:01Week so many different weapons that they can use and also the plug-and-play mentality at the running back position
40:06That's the way I look but we've talked about it quite a bit this morning two and a halfs and threes
40:10That is a big deal here
40:11So you're looking that if you are taking the Rams you figure they probably to get beat by a touchdown or more for you not
40:17To cover here now granted. Yes, you're going by four or five or six points
40:19But you get the gist of that the 49 and a half's here with a little bit of rain in the forecast on a short week
40:24Here we're expecting points and we should get those but we've seen it many times two teams that know each other
40:30and again
40:31that's of the utmost importance between
40:32Both of these teams with a little bit of rain in the forecast might be enough to send that south because we're not talking Ben
40:3839 and a half 41 and a half 29 and a half you're expecting teams to get both into the mid-twenties here
40:43They have a legitimate chance at that
40:45So for me, I'm still gonna lean towards the 49ers on Thursday and football since you're at home
40:49And yes the line currently right now Fandula's three
40:51I'll go that direction slightly and also towards the over but again, the props are more of the perspective time
40:55However, I would be shocked if we have a low-scoring game when I say low-scoring Ben 21 17
41:01I think we're gonna be right up against that number. So therefore theoretically thinking we get the over
41:07Yeah, absolutely. So 49 and a half now seven touchdowns, right?
41:11If you get to seven touchdowns, you still could be under by the hook if that is all the scoring that we see
41:17It is a lofty expectation for a short week
41:20No, the Rams are not traveling cross country or even out of state
41:24But it's a big turnaround for a team that just out dueled the Buffalo Bills at home in a game that featured 86 combined points
41:32But maybe you'll watch last week
41:34You said the Rams couldn't stop a nosebleed
41:37The Bills only lost that game because they never got the football back and burned a bad time out late
41:42I do understand it. In fact the RS from the trend perspective both teams kind of sitting where they are from that spread
41:50Should expect points tonight, San Francisco a six and seven football team
41:55Disappointing, of course based on preseason expectation, but have won outright in all their six wins as a favorite
42:02They have covered in five of six and all five covers the Niners have scored at least 30 points
42:07Games total has gone over the Rams and underdogs seven times this season
42:12They are both three and four straight up and against the spread meaning when they cover as a dog
42:17They have won outright this year in that game has gone over in all three outright victories
42:24for Los Angeles, you can understand the expectation of
42:29Offense now, let's get into the prop perspective and let's compare those quarterbacks
42:34You said earlier on you would look first at the yardage for Brock Purdy if you were going to bet the QB's tonight
42:40Does that remain your favorite bet?
42:42It does remain my favorite bet because I look I can staffer get the 244 F
42:46Of course, he is he's a great wide receiver his great wide receivers and he's a great quarterback
42:49But I just see that, you know
42:51I don't know if we're leaning on the ground game as much as we possibly should for San Francisco with some unknown
42:57Products in the back foot which means that's gonna be a lot more opportunities for Brock Purdy
43:00Maybe his legs here Ben you take a look at his prop number on like 20 and a half rushing yards for the quarterback
43:06Which could be in play specifically. It's a little bit rainy
43:08You make a couple moves here get out of the pocket
43:10You can get some of those yardage yourself
43:12But I do expect Brock Purdy to be able to light up that secondary that so many teams have done for the Rams
43:16One thing we like about the Rams is they have a couple young athletic defensive linemen to get after the pass rush
43:21But that secondary is susceptible here
43:23So yes Brock Purdy over one and a half touchdown passes and Brock Purdy over 258 and a half
43:28I do think make a good match here for him tonight
43:31You know
43:32What is really interesting as well DRS the only rushing yards prop that is available for Thursday night with the questions around
43:38Isaac Arendo for San Francisco is Brock Purdy at 20 now 18 and a half
43:45Dropping just a little bit. It was 20 and a half earlier today
43:49It's still a number though. The Brock Purdy has only gone over three times in their last five games
43:55It's not like he's consistently over that price. But anytime Josh Allen broke contain on Sunday
44:01He was picking up 18 and a half yards in one
44:05Single run now as we look at the running backs Kyron Williams is the only guy with a prop out Isaac Arendo again is
44:13Expecting to play plans to play we'll see if he does Kyron Williams has scored in nine of 13 games
44:21For the Rams this year scored in five straight to start the season then did not score in four in a row
44:26Now is scored in three straight
44:28But of course tonight you have to talk to pass catchers when you look at Puka Nikua Cooper Cup for LA
44:34George Kittle to Juan Jennings and perhaps even Devo Samuel DRS for San Francisco
44:40Yeah, it's it's fun to watch this one play out because again Juan Jennings now 69 and a half
44:44It's like where did we get to this point?
44:46But he is the true number one wide receiver and target share and also actually making a difference in games
44:51But it is one of those we say and Tom came on he might be right on this one George Kittle 59 and a half
44:55What's a bad game tonight for Kittle? He gets into the mid 40s
44:58You're always gonna be around that number with legitimate chances
45:01You saw last week for him have a really good game
45:04But the question marks always go around Debo that
45:0649 and a half like once you get some more the numbers a little bit later the rushing and receiving numbers come into it
45:12How many calories is Debo gonna get also how many receptions is Debo going to get he is gonna be a focal point for me
45:17Just trying to figure out that recipe that's going to work where is it right to say he doesn't really run the football anymore
45:23But tonight with running backs down
45:25He's going to get that football in a must-win game and also keep in mind if you don't want to wear your guys out
45:30This isn't the game not to do it you lose
45:32There is no tomorrow for San Francisco, so everybody should be on the table
45:36But again back to the rushing props for party down to banged up a little bit on the offensive line good pass rush coming in
45:41Some rainy conditions. Why not over the 18 and a half for him as well, so let's go DRS
45:46We will see you next week have fun on the money line have fun tonight or on the early line up next
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