00:00European leaders are gathering in Brussels. The summit this Thursday comes as the bloc mulls a ramp up in defense spending and
00:07more support for Kiev
00:09Gathering also comes as uncertainty over the relationship with the United States mounts this after the u.s
00:15President Donald Trump said the EU was created to screw the u.s
00:19We can now bring in Paul van hooft
00:22Research leader in defense and security at RAND Europe. Thank you very much for joining us on the program today
00:28Now the Kremlin says Europe's plans for militarization are at odds with the mood in Russia and the United States
00:35Are they wrong because Russia and the u.s. Seem intent on re-establishing links
00:44Well, I'm not sure we have to
00:48We have to speculate on what the Russian intentions are, but their actions in the last
00:53Years suggests that they are intent on providing a wider threat to the to to NATO to the
01:01European allies, so under those conditions, it seems very reasonable to me to for the European states to to build up sufficient
01:10capabilities to defend
01:12Europe but defend allies to deter Russia
01:16Also in the condition that the u.s. Might not be entirely available to to play its part right and that could be
01:23given the political
01:25Discussions having but it's clear that the the u.s. Itself
01:28Has said that its priority right now is not Europe, but instead Asia and its border security
01:34So under those conditions, I think it's fairly reasonable that the Europeans
01:38Continue to to arm themselves
01:40But Donald Trump thinks that Russia is no longer a threat because he's back in the in the White House
01:47Is the u.s. President delusional?
01:51I
01:52wouldn't I
01:54Don't think that's my it's my place to can make assessments of the of the u.s. President
01:59He was chosen this these are the priorities that he signaled before he was elected
02:06and I think it's more a
02:08mistake on the European part not to prepare to
02:12Take care of their extreme dependency on the u.s. For their own security. This is this is also in some sense not entirely
02:19New right three years ago
02:22just after the invasion the Biden administration published a
02:26Defense strategy, which said that Russia was a threat in Europe, but that China was really the major priority for the u.s
02:33government so in that sense for Europeans or for at least for some Europeans to be caught off guard by the
02:40Deprioritization of Europe is I think more their own
02:44Unwillingness to read the room in the u.s
02:47The u.s. And Russia are due to start talks in Saudi Arabia early next week
02:53Some would suggest on how to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. They seem intent on doing this
02:59Bilaterally without Ukraine without Europe at the table yet. We've seen moves from Europe in recent weeks
03:05They've Europe has tried and failed to get its voice heard now
03:09There is this plan to rearm is this a way for Europe to get a seat at the table?
03:14Yeah, well, I think there's there's always two functions to to building up military capabilities, right there's a version of it
03:21Which says we are looking to defend?
03:24Something we care about NATO territory are our European
03:29Partners all these all these aspects of it
03:32We're building up these capabilities to deter Russia if it seeks an opportunity
03:36but also
03:38And I think the the US administration has also been clear on this
03:42In several times if the Europeans don't have military capabilities, they don't really get a seat at the table
03:48So also for those reasons it makes a lot of sense to have the ability to build to build up
03:55And you know, there is a question here of this. This is a direct concern for security concern for Europe
04:03Ukraine the outcome of the Ukraine war. It's also we've I think made a normative commitment
04:10So regardless of what the US
04:13Seeks to do or not do in Ukraine and whether it wants to get out of the conflict as quickly as possible to
04:19Put its resources elsewhere, which is all
04:22a choice that US administration can make I think it's still in the European interest to have
04:29Other plans in place and other ways to compensate for that. It seems that Europe is always playing catch-up
04:37We've had Donald Trump's first presidency
04:40Europe was aware that
04:42He's not the most reliable
04:44If you will then we had Biden who came back on the picture. We had an election that was looming
04:50We saw what Donald Trump kept saying on the campaign trail when it came to NATO Europe
04:55What have you now Trump is back in the White House now that?
05:00European guarantee security guarantee is now up in the air and Europe seems to be left shocked
05:06How is Europe left shocked?
05:08Well, I think actually that's a good question
05:11it depends also who in Europe writes there I think the
05:16Different French governments have been preparing for longer for to take care of some of the dependencies
05:23That they had on the u.s. I think it's it has
05:28Deep historical causes there's a psychological element to it
05:31And let's not forget that u.s. Administration's for the last 75 years
05:36Have put a lot of effort
05:38Into convincing Europeans that they were a clear priority, right?
05:42So the they've put a lot of energy into this before so I think for a lot of European leaders
05:47It was hard to believe that at some point
05:50Simply put we would not be the priority anymore and then there are other reasons for it as well
05:54It's the the European institutions both sort of the EU institutions
05:58But also institutions in various countries are not necessarily designed
06:04to adapt quickly to to new strategic circumstances and
06:09Certainly in the last 30 years 25 years for a long period of time. There was not much reason to to adapt that quickly
06:16So it's not just that the the minds are changing. It's also that this
06:21The national security systems are trying to catch up on all these all these developments and those two combinations together combined with you know
06:29The fact that we're talking about two dozen countries that does make it very hard to have a very fast
06:36Decisive response in the apartment. We're gonna have to leave it that thank you so much for joining us on the program today. Welcome
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