All roads to victory run through Victoria this election

ABC NEWS (Australia)

All roads to the lodge run through Victoria this election campaign. For months the Liberals have eyed off half-a-dozen seats as part of their nationwide strategy to win over suburban voters. But it is not just Labor versus Liberal contests that make Victoria the most crucial state in 2025.

Transcript

00:00Hello, how are you?

00:05Bakeries,

00:08building sites,

00:10construction sites,

00:13and even classrooms.

00:15There's few places the leaders haven't been.

00:17Yes, Chef Prime Minister!

00:21Once an afterthought in campaigns,

00:23Victoria is back in the political spotlight in 2025.

00:28So why Victoria?

00:29Labor has long dominated the state.

00:31It holds 24 of 38 seats,

00:33and Liberals hold just two in metropolitan Melbourne.

00:36Simply put, if Peter Dutton wants to become Prime Minister,

00:39he must pick up seats here.

00:42Both major parties agree that Labor's three most vulnerable seats

00:46are Aston, Chisholm and McEwan.

00:48That area has been a hotspot and includes fast-growing suburbs,

00:52a key target of the Coalition's new strategy.

00:55The outer burbs, like here in Melbourne's north-west,

00:58are high on the list of Liberal targets, despite big Labor margins.

01:02That's because there's high cost of living and mortgage stress,

01:05and Labor was unusually nervous about places like Hawke, Gorton,

01:10and even Bruce.

01:11That's because after years of Labor,

01:13some voters feel like they've been left behind.

01:16Nationally, Labor's polling has improved throughout the campaign.

01:21That's true too in Victoria.

01:23But there's some caveats.

01:24You can pretty much ignore the statewide swing on Saturday night

01:27because this campaign has targeted different communities in different ways.

01:31So Labor could lose big chunks of votes in the outer suburbs,

01:34but elsewhere in Melbourne it could improve its position.

01:37The ALP is now targeting the Liberals Michael Succa in Deakin and Keith Wollahan in Menzies.

01:44The Liberals have sought to capitalise on the unpopularity of the state Labor government,

01:48and those hopes have driven ambitions to pick up seats across Melbourne.

01:54Away from the urban fringe in Kooyong and Goldstein,

01:57the Liberals are trying to win the seats back from Teal Independents Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel.

02:02These contests are too close to call.

02:05The party also faces new independent challenges in Wonnan and Monash.

02:12And the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail Labor's bid to hold the Greens at bay in Wills,

02:17while complicating the already complex three-horse race in McNamara.

02:21With the very real possibility of a hung parliament, Victorian votes carry a greater weight in shaping the nation

02:27than they've had in many decades.

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