- 8 months ago
Dr Bishnu Ragoonath Senior lecturer at the University of the West Indies, joins us live via zoom to share his views.
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00:00And welcome back. Dr. Bishnu Raghunath is a lecturer at the University of the West Indies.
00:06We're going to thank him so much for joining us on this Friday evening.
00:10Dr. Raghunath, thank you for joining us to discuss some of what is taking place on the political landscape.
00:17Thank you. It's good evening to your viewers and listeners.
00:21All righty. So it has been such a week, Dr. Raghunath.
00:25Of course, you joined us as part of our expert panel here on Monday night.
00:30And just yesterday, the PM and AG were sworn in.
00:33But on Monday, we didn't have the detailed preliminary results as we do now.
00:38So first off, we'd like to field your thoughts on the voter turnout, 53.09 percent or thereabout.
00:44It's the second in our country's history, second lowest.
00:49But definitely it is the second lowest in our country's history,
00:52bearing in mind that the lowest was in 1971 when there was a no-vote campaign.
00:59But so the question could be then asked now as to why is there this level of voter apathy
01:06that people are not interested and so forth.
01:10Now, we bear in mind that part of the problem or part of the challenge which led us to this situation
01:17was simply that the PNM voters who traditionally voted for the PNM had decreased significantly.
01:26In fact, probably about one-third of the people who would have voted for the PNM in 2020
01:32and even less than one-third of those who would have voted for them in 2015 voted this time around.
01:40So the whole question here is this voter turnout,
01:46had we gotten the full turnout from the PNM supporters in this election,
01:52clearly we would have gone up, the percentage of voters would have gone significantly higher.
01:58But unfortunately, for reasons that the PNM probably would want to explain and analyze themselves,
02:06their voters refused, well, at least one-third of their voters stayed home.
02:12All right.
02:12So, Dr. Agunath, how important is it for us to consider the fact that every five years or so,
02:19the about 20,000 electors are added to the voting list, for instance.
02:26But the denominator, the electorate, keeps increasing.
02:31Of course, we know that there are deaths.
02:33We've heard that poll cards are issued indicating that there are dead persons still on the polling list,
02:39if my memory serves me correct, while the parliament was debating the last boundaries report.
02:44Even then-Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley raised this as a major concern.
02:48And, of course, math class or students at primary school would be able to tell you,
02:53the larger the denominator, the smaller the overall fraction.
02:57How mathematically, looking at it in this manner, how important would that be to factor in?
03:05Well, clearly it is important to factor in.
03:08Of course, there is still some arithmetic problems therein.
03:14Because we know for a fact that every year we have approximately 18,000 or 19,000 students getting out of school.
03:26So that would mean that in a five-year period we should have the electorate increasing by 100,000 or somewhere thereabouts.
03:33But yet still, it is not increasing by that amount.
03:37And more importantly, notwithstanding the fact that there would be deaths,
03:42are we experiencing the same amount of deaths as we have births every year?
03:46And the simple answer to that question is no.
03:48So, clearly we have to deal with the elections and boundaries commission in how they have revised their list over the years.
03:57And they need to also get rid of some of those people who may have passed on years ago but still remain on the list.
04:04We know, too, that, for instance, there has not been a census in Trinidad and Tobago since 2010.
04:13So that's 15 years ago.
04:14So we don't know exactly the exact population of Trinidad at this point in time.
04:20Now, I need to ask you, are you familiar with the process of deregistering voters, one,
04:26and do we need to now look at legislative reform as it relates to the EBC so that, you know,
04:33they give results within a specific time?
04:35Because we notice a lot of complaints from the citizenry after the election had passed was how long it was taking to get results.
04:42I noted, speaking to some counterparts in Jamaica during an interview there,
04:47they expressed to me that they have their process whereby on election night,
04:52it's their screens at their headquarters, their elections headquarters, the same persists in Guyana,
04:59I believe in Venezuela, in the United States, where results, it's a more transparent process.
05:05So as polling station results come in, it's displayed for everyone, the media and the public to see and witness.
05:13Well, definitely we have to look at how our EBC operates in terms of the release of results.
05:20I mean, even the EBC website, for instance, as we get the information of their website,
05:27not even the reporting, it comes long after, in fact, and more importantly,
05:36there's always questions as to whether or not, as to the reliability of some of the information.
05:42As a researcher, in fact, it is sometimes very difficult to manipulate information,
05:48to know how polling divisions which were moved and so on,
05:51what would the voting turn out in certain polling divisions and so on.
05:57And those are critical concerns that we will have.
06:00There is serious concern that the EBC needs to modernize.
06:05In fact, I think when we had the nomination day, I think the leader of the Patriotic Front
06:13had spoken about the EBC being archaic and the processes being archaic.
06:20We need to modernize and we need to use more digital mechanisms in bringing the EBC online faster
06:27and for them to produce results faster to the population.
06:32The other thing, too, in fact, the election was on Monday.
06:37We did not get preliminary results until Wednesday evening
06:40and the excuse was simply that they were doing recounts.
06:45But the recounts were continuing until yesterday,
06:50but yet still on Wednesday evening they released preliminary results.
06:54So those are questions and those are issues the EBC should really try to deal with
07:00as we prepare for the next election.
07:02I mean, we know there's an election coming up next year,
07:06in the first half of next year, the Tomago House of Assembly elections.
07:10So we really have to see how the EBC treats with that
07:12and whether they could upgrade their systems.
07:15Now, Dr. Ragnard, I've been looking at the figures as well, right?
07:18So I have a sort of question for you.
07:22I'm hoping that you would follow me.
07:24The PNM lost 100,000 votes, thereabouts, right?
07:30Thereabouts.
07:30We saw about the UNC, they saw an increase of 35,000.
07:38So 35,000, let's add that to 40,000 who did not vote.
07:44And the overall decrease in voter turnout.
07:48Then we have the Patriotic Front getting 21,000.
07:52The PEP getting thereabouts, 10,000.
07:56TPP, 13,000.
07:58So when we add all of this up, it would seem to me that some persons
08:02also from the UNC base did not vote for the UNC.
08:07And some of their votes would have gone to the other parties.
08:10Well, naturally, the PEP as part of the Coalition of Interest,
08:16but some would have gone to the other parties.
08:19Definitely.
08:20The mere fact that Mikayla Pandey was able to draw 1,700 votes in Coover North,
08:27where would those votes normally would have come from?
08:30And I think that would have come from the UNC's base.
08:32So clearly, the Patriotic Front, for instance, would have taken some votes
08:39from the Patriotic Front, some votes from the UNC.
08:44Likewise, the NTA would have taken some votes from the UNC.
08:50And in fact, I think one of the UNC's commentators and spokesmen
08:55went on to say that, for instance, had the Patriotic Front not contested,
09:00I think one of the seats, either the Malabar, Remo, or one of those seats,
09:05Malabar, Mexico.
09:07Right.
09:08Their votes would have gone across to the UNC, and the UNC would have won that seat.
09:13So it is in that context that we expected that some votes would have left the UNC.
09:19We know that some of the UNC's dissidents, if I may call them that,
09:26had gone across to the PNM.
09:28Of course, they would probably take some of the votes.
09:30I mean, it wouldn't be much, but it would be, even if we talk about hundreds,
09:35a hundred moving across or so, and that would be critical to the UNC at this point in that.
09:40So, in effect, the majority of parties that would have taken votes,
09:46the new parties, the smaller parties,
09:49to a large extent, those smaller parties would have taken votes away from the UNC in the mean.
09:55I'm not saying that the PNM would not have lost some,
09:57but in the mean, those votes may have come from the UNC.
10:01And that is why the UNC, yes, it had increased its voter turnout,
10:06but it could have increased it even more had those parties not been around.
10:10Now, I've seen people expressing pleasant surprise, I have to say,
10:14over the Patriotic Front attaining over 20,000 votes.
10:17But I'm going to put that into context.
10:19The Patriotic Front contested 37 seats, whereas the PEP, I believe they contested two.
10:24The TPP, two, 13,000.
10:27By the TPP, PEP, 10,000.
10:30And, of course, if we go across, if we were to include the NTA,
10:34which contested, I believe, 16 seats, they got about 6,000 votes.
10:38How significant really is the Patriotic Front's ability or their demonstration?
10:46How significant is it that they captured 21,000 votes?
10:52Capturing 21,000 votes is okay.
10:56The problem, however, is their ability to,
10:59or that 21,000 votes spread across some 57 seats does not make much of an impact.
11:05In fact, when I checked, for instance, with the case of Mikila Pandey,
11:10who had gotten 1,700-plus votes in the Cougar North,
11:14she did not get back her deposit.
11:16She got less than they required to get back her deposit.
11:21Now, clearly, it's important that you win votes, but your votes must be concentrated.
11:31Come back again, go back in our history.
11:34In 1981, when the O&R contested the election,
11:40they got something like 96,000 votes, but they won not a seat.
11:44Likewise, here, we've seen the Patriotic Front getting 21,000 votes,
11:51but it is not concentrated in any one constituency,
11:55and hence, it does not make sense,
11:58as compared to the TPP in Tobago,
12:01where they concentrated on two seats,
12:04and they were able to get 13,000 votes.
12:07So, that's the context in which you have to look at both internal four parties as we move forward.
12:13All right, Dr. Raghunath, let's move on now to the Prime Minister's choice of Attorney General.
12:18Now, of course, the Attorney General is a primary legal advisor to government,
12:21and the office is described as a guardian of public interest, so to speak.
12:26Now, we're hearing the public commenting about bruised egos of some of the SCs
12:31and attorneys within the UNC rank that they may have been bypassed.
12:35Was this a good move, as well, to appoint a former PNM Attorney General?
12:41Well, it was a move that I am almost certain that Kamala Prasad-Bissessa
12:46would probably try to explain in the context of simply saying that
12:50she's being inclusive and trying to include as many people as possible,
12:55regardless of their previous party of Asia.
12:59We know that Mr. Jeremy had stated that since last year,
13:02since more than a year ago, he had resigned from the PNM.
13:07So, that means he was open to join any other party.
13:11Whether he actually joined the UNC or not, I don't know.
13:14But the fact of the matter is he never wore the UNC colors
13:20on the two platform presentations that he made,
13:23I think one in PNM and one at the final rally in Aranguas.
13:29But notwithstanding that, however, you asked about his capabilities.
13:34I think the legal fraternity has already said,
13:37and I have no reason to doubt them,
13:39that he's probably one of the best persons with the job.
13:42He's senior counsel.
13:43I looked at the UNC, in fact, another media house asked me earlier today,
13:51and I said, well, did any of the senior counsels that we have in the UNC,
13:57did any one of them contest the elections?
14:00And as far as I'm aware,
14:01none of the senior counsels contested the elections.
14:05I could be wrong,
14:06but in the event that I am wrong,
14:08I apologize for that.
14:10But as far as I'm aware,
14:12none of the UNC lawyers who contested the election are senior counsels.
14:21And to that extent,
14:22the prime minister thought we needed a senior counsel,
14:26and she went with somebody who is not necessarily
14:28coming out of the bowels of the UN.
14:33Yes, and I mean,
14:35politically, as it relates to optics and so on,
14:38I mean, she did describe him yesterday.
14:40She said that he's a brilliant man,
14:42and he's also down to earth.
14:44But reception by the population,
14:47because we're seeing some UNC supporters
14:49on social media that is saying,
14:52you know,
14:52suppose he goes in to do the work of the PNM.
14:57Well, again,
14:58a prime minister must make a choice,
15:01and the prime minister has chosen
15:03in this particular regard,
15:04as to whether or not,
15:06or what will happen thereafter,
15:08the prime minister will have to take a responsibility
15:10if, for instance,
15:11he goes in there to support the PNM.
15:14But of course,
15:15there's the other side,
15:16Jay.
15:17He has raised the question,
15:18for instance,
15:19about legal fees being paid by the state
15:23to private attorneys.
15:25And that we know for a fact
15:27was a critical factor
15:29in the past regime,
15:31where, for instance,
15:33I was told that some,
15:35not even senior counsel,
15:37but junior counsel giving advice
15:40to the government
15:40was being paid in the vicinity
15:43of over $100,000
15:44for a piece of legal advice,
15:47which we are not sure exactly
15:50what was the worth.
15:51So it is in that context,
15:54maybe one of the tasks
15:55that the attorney general
15:57will come up with
15:58is finding some formula
16:00that will ensure
16:01that there are standardized fees
16:04for legal advice
16:06that the government will have
16:07as they go forward.
16:09I don't know whether that's it.
16:11Whether there are other issues
16:12that the prime minister
16:15and the government
16:18will have to look at
16:19in terms of what has transpired
16:22during the 10 years
16:24of the PNM reign.
16:27We don't know for a fact
16:29whether or not,
16:30I mean,
16:31Dr. Rowdy
16:31had continuously said
16:33that there was no fingers
16:35pointed at him
16:36or his government
16:37for corruption.
16:39Well, there were no fingers
16:40pointed during his term of office.
16:43Could there be fingers
16:43pointed at him
16:44after his term of office?
16:46We know that the same
16:47was said about
16:49well, not the same
16:50but in fact
16:51people like Dr. Rudal Munilala
16:54they will only
16:55fingers only pointed at him
16:57after the PNM took office.
16:59So maybe I don't know
17:00what will be the role
17:02of John Jeremy
17:02as he moves on
17:04as a teacher.
17:05Of course, Dr. Raghunath,
17:06tomorrow at 4pm
17:08we're seeing that ministers
17:09will be sworn in.
17:11So it's speculative
17:12to say who will go where.
17:14But we're hearing about
17:15some additional portfolios
17:17being added
17:18to the current list
17:19of cabinet ministers.
17:20I could be wrong
17:21but I'm hearing that
17:22works and transport
17:23is to split
17:23into works,
17:25transport and infrastructure
17:26and national security
17:28will be broken up
17:29into two
17:29home affairs,
17:31home security
17:32and border security.
17:35Of course,
17:36the Kamala-Passad
17:37led administration
17:38in its last incarnation,
17:41the PP government,
17:42they had a 35-member cabinet.
17:44And this, of course,
17:45drew criticisms
17:46from the then-opposition leader
17:47Keith Rowley
17:48who called that absurd
17:49and even Bastio Pandey
17:51who said it was
17:51the largest cabinet
17:53per capita in the world.
17:55Now, just to put everything
17:56into context,
17:57the cabinet as,
17:58well, the PNM cabinet
18:00was at 29.
18:02How do you think
18:04this will work
18:05for this UNC administration
18:08to have cabinet
18:09expand from 29?
18:12Well, I would not,
18:16well, let's put it like this.
18:18Other people,
18:18people could criticize
18:19but for all intents
18:21and purposes,
18:22it is the prime minister's call
18:24as to how big
18:25she wants her cabinet.
18:26Bearing in mind
18:27that she has
18:28some limitations.
18:29So, for instance,
18:31in the lower house,
18:32she has 26 members
18:35on her side
18:35plus if we consider
18:38the two from Tobago,
18:39that's 28.
18:41And, of course,
18:42we will know that
18:43some of those people
18:45will not be named
18:45as ministers.
18:47So, for instance,
18:48leave out
18:49Kamala Posadi-Sesa.
18:52Probably the deputy speaker
18:54of the House
18:54will not be given
18:55a ministerial portfolio.
18:57And then she has
18:5816 senators,
18:59two of whom
19:00would be office holders,
19:01the president of the Senate
19:02and the vice president
19:04of the Senate.
19:05So, when you consider
19:07that you will have
19:08now 14 there
19:09plus, let's say,
19:1026 in the lower house,
19:14she has probably
19:15up to 40 people
19:16who could be
19:18assigned positions.
19:20And that,
19:21so, whether or not
19:22she would want
19:23to assign all of them
19:24some ministerial portfolio
19:26or junior minister
19:27in the ministry
19:28or whatever else
19:29or all of them
19:30in the prime minister's office,
19:31we really have to
19:32wait and see.
19:32But, clearly,
19:34she could go
19:34all the way up
19:35to 40 ministers
19:36based on the size
19:37of her parliamentary
19:39contingents.
19:41Now, my final question
19:42for you this evening,
19:44Dr. Agunath,
19:45Marco Rubio's call
19:46to Kamala Posadi-Sesa,
19:48now, this goes beyond
19:49that congratulatory,
19:51initial congratulatory
19:52statement.
19:53He has taken up
19:54his phone
19:55and he has decided
19:56and he has decided
19:56that he will call
19:57the incoming,
19:59the newly sworn-in
20:00prime minister
20:00of Trinidad and Tobago
20:01and have a conversation.
20:03Of course,
20:04the explanation
20:06or the details
20:07of that call
20:08given to us
20:09by the United States
20:10Secretary of State,
20:11their website,
20:12was very vague,
20:14almost similar
20:15to the discussion
20:16or details
20:17given to us
20:17about the discussion
20:18had between
20:19former prime minister
20:20Stuart Young
20:21and, of course,
20:22Marco Rubio.
20:23In my recollection,
20:25I believe
20:26in Stuart Young's case,
20:28the call was initiated
20:30on Trinidad and Tobago's end.
20:32In this case,
20:33you're seeing the U.S. calling.
20:34Is it too early
20:35for them to have discussed
20:37drug and gas
20:38and, of course,
20:38those tariffs?
20:41Definitely,
20:42it's too early
20:43for them to discuss that.
20:45But bear in mind
20:46that the first statement
20:48that we got
20:49from the United States,
20:50Marco Rubio's office
20:52as he congratulated
20:55Kamala Passat-Vicessa
20:56was that they had
20:57made it quite clear
20:58that Kamala Passat-Vicessa
20:59was seen as an ally
21:01of the United States.
21:02A friend, yes.
21:02Described as a friend.
21:03And so forth.
21:05And if that is the case,
21:07well, then what we are seeing here
21:09is simply ensuring
21:10that they deepen
21:11the relationship
21:12between the United States
21:13and Trinidad and Tobago
21:14and the government
21:15and they see
21:16Kamala Passat-Vicessa
21:18as a key player
21:19in their relationship
21:22not only with Trinidad
21:23and Tobago
21:24but with the wider Caribbean.
21:26And I think
21:27that is important
21:28particularly so
21:30when we consider
21:31the relation,
21:34I think this week again,
21:36the several OECS
21:38member country
21:39prime ministers
21:40will be meeting
21:41in Washington.
21:42but in the case
21:45of prime minister
21:46Passat-Vicessa
21:47she is not making
21:49that trip
21:49and I would assume
21:51that probably
21:52that would be
21:53one of the reasons
21:54why to say
21:55that he had not
21:56met with her,
21:57he had met
21:57with former prime minister
21:59Young
21:59and he is now
22:01meeting with other
22:02prime ministers
22:03from the Caribbean.
22:04He thought he would
22:05probably reach out
22:05to Kamala Passat-Vicessa
22:07to say,
22:07don't worry,
22:08I have not left you out.
22:09We will talk
22:10later on it.
22:12Now of course
22:12when I heard
22:13Mrs. Passat-Vicessa
22:15being described
22:15as a friend
22:16after spending
22:17nine years
22:18in opposition
22:18I wondered
22:19when and how
22:20that friendship
22:21would have been fostered.
22:22But it all bodes well
22:23for our country,
22:24Trinidad and Tobago.
22:25What do you think
22:26is next?
22:26Do you think
22:26an in-person meeting
22:28will follow
22:29or maybe phone calls
22:30that conversation
22:31will continue?
22:33I definitely think
22:35conversation will continue.
22:36I am not sure
22:37Kamala Passat-Vicessa
22:38will fly out
22:40to the United States.
22:41If however,
22:43Mr. Rubio
22:43is going to be
22:44in the region,
22:46I would not doubt
22:47very much
22:48so that he might
22:48try to either
22:50have a quick stopover
22:51in Trinidad
22:52the same way
22:54he did it last summer
22:54around stopped over
22:55in Guyana
22:56and in Suriname.
22:58In that case,
22:59that is not,
23:01I mean,
23:01we have to keep
23:02that in check.
23:03But the conversation
23:04will continue
23:05and it will continue
23:07probably over the phone
23:08or by Zoom meetings
23:10or whatever
23:10as we go forward.
23:12Dr. Bishnu Raghunath,
23:13of course,
23:14Senior Lecturer
23:14at the University
23:15of the Western East.
23:16Let me thank you
23:16so much for,
23:17you know,
23:17sharing this,
23:18taking the time
23:19off your Friday
23:20to share your expertise
23:21with us.
23:22Thank you so much.
23:23It has been my pleasure.
23:25Good night to your viewers.
23:26Good night to you,
23:27Dr. Raghunath.
23:28And to our viewers,
23:28we now go to our quick break.
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