Analyzing All-Star Game MVP Odds and Key Player Impact

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00:00all-star game MVP odds of course at the top of the odds board Shohei Ohtani Aaron Judge the

00:05superstars in this sport the hometown guy and Ronald Acuna Jr can the summer of the big dumper

00:11continue Cal Raleigh after winning the derby last night maybe but you look at the most two recent

00:17all-star game winners Jaron Duran of the Boston Red Sox had the game-winning RBI last year in

00:24Arlington Elias Diaz the lone all-star appearance of his 11-year MLB career with the Rockies in 2023

00:31and he delivered the game-winning run for the NL oftentimes Donnie if these games are tight in the

00:39fifth sixth seventh inning it's not those superstars who are sitting on the bench and chopping it up

00:45it's the reserves who come into the game later who in that one plate appearance might hit a two RBI

00:51double that could be the difference so I'm not sure it's worth paying those incredibly short numbers

00:56incredibly short just in relative comparison on Ohtani Judge and the like yeah exactly like you

01:03look at Ohtani that price point say like well is he pitching that's going to open the game for one

01:07inning shutout ball maybe get a double in the gap in his first at bat and a walk that scores a run so

01:13he gets in the statistical categories where he can be that MVP no you're right you want to wait till later

01:17in the game because as I talked about with Craig Mish like it's a great analogy on like the roulette

01:22spin like you don't know what's going to happen here because you don't even know where the ball

01:25is going to land or who's going to be at the plate or hey I'm going to take Jazz Chisholm yeah Jazz

01:28didn't even get in a bat in the game congratulations right so you have to understand yes like Ohtani

01:34could hit a two-run home run early in the game or maybe he gets two to plate appearance and one of

01:37those is a two-run home run that goes a long way so when I look at MVPs I take the pitchers out of

01:42the equation because you're not going to get them in there for more than one inning they're not going to win

01:45the MVP at this point so you have to just factor on somebody has to hit a home run but also if they

01:50don't somebody has to have a meaningful bat in a one-to-one game or two to two to two game the bait

01:55the game winning base hit slash RBI is going to get precedence over Ben the first inning base hit RBI

02:01so if it's one-to-one and Ohtani got that RBI in the first but bottom of the ninth inning Brent Rooker

02:07comes up for the American League and doubles in the gap and two-run score and that's going to be

02:11appreciated much much more than that at bat and plate appearance in the first inning so you

02:15have to pick a home run and hope nobody else hits one so the guys that I look forward to if they

02:19come into the game late as reserves would be a Jazz Chisholm at 50 to one a Brent Rooker at 60 to one

02:25you're thinking that the American League dominance might continue so be coming from that angle as

02:29which that you would play it on but there's no harder handicap basically in sports than the MVP

02:33of the all-star game because it can literally be anybody Ben

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