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  • 5 months ago
$2 Still Possible ADA Cardano in the Breakout! - Critical Levels Ahead!

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Transcript
00:00Hello, hello, and welcome to another update video on ADA.
00:04So on the ADA chart, I'm going to start here on the daily chart.
00:07I mean, the scenarios have not changed,
00:10but we are starting to break below initial micro support levels.
00:14It's not really a decisive break yet,
00:16but it looks like we might be getting there.
00:19And so, yeah, I mean, we just need to be ready for deeper pullbacks.
00:29It looks like that.
00:30At least I have no confirmed low in place anywhere yet at this point.
00:35So at the moment, what we are tracking here is a sideways range in the yellow scenario.
00:43That's the short-term bearish count.
00:45Let's just start with that.
00:46This is unchanged.
00:47We discussed it in previous videos.
00:49We have an A wave down.
00:50We have a B wave and a C wave.
00:53And then that B wave is a triangle.
00:55A, B, C, D, E.
00:59And so in this triangle pattern, we could form a D wave down
01:04and a lower high in an E wave before breaking down.
01:08This is like the short-term bearish count that remains valid
01:14as long as the market stays below the green line.
01:17And that's at $1.18.
01:18Okay.
01:19So this is, of course, getting more probable
01:21as we're breaking below micro support levels,
01:23but cannot be confirmed until we really break below $0.51
01:27because that's the swing low here from June, April, and January.
01:34So that's an absolute key level there.
01:37We're still overall in a range.
01:39So just need to be ready.
01:40Of course, the range can break to the downside,
01:42especially with ongoing weakness in the sector,
01:45which goes a little deeper than ideal.
01:46But we'll talk a little bit about that on the smaller time frame in a minute.
01:51Now, when we talk about the rally to the upside here,
01:56the upside potential, yeah,
01:58I'm still tracking this as a potential ABC structure to the upside
02:03and the wave four as a triangle might have completed.
02:06And in the white scenario, we can still get a fifth wave to the upside.
02:09So far, we haven't seen a five-wave move up yet from the June low.
02:15So it's only three waves.
02:18Now, again, remember, we're dealing with a diagonal structure.
02:22So we do not necessarily need a five-wave move in order to go higher.
02:28A three-wave move would be fine.
02:30The fact that we're starting to break below initial support
02:33could indicate that wave A already topped.
02:36And we're now in a B-wave pullback.
02:39Now, I want to share with you a deeper support area
02:44that might be worth watching,
02:45which I'm not showing yet on the one-hour chart.
02:47But in this scenario, the market could find support in this region
02:51between 57.8 cents and 73.9 cents in any deeper pullback.
02:57It's just a Fibonacci support zone to watch
02:59that's based on the length of the rally from the June low to the July high
03:03in case we get a deeper B-wave or even the D-wave in the yellow scenario.
03:09Even though we all know that B-waves or even D-waves in triangles
03:14don't respect Fibonacci levels so well.
03:16So it's not based on...
03:18Because it's not necessarily based on an uptrend, right?
03:21Because without a five-wave move up, we don't really have that evidence.
03:24Okay, so now let us talk about the shorter time frame then.
03:31And this is where we can see that the market has started to break below initial support.
03:36Not exactly a decisive break yet.
03:38And that break of support wasn't improbable given that I already highlighted to you
03:43that so far we haven't seen any five-wave move up.
03:46And the 100% extension, which is actually an ideal target for a C-wave, is at 69.9 cents.
03:52So we are approaching that level right now.
03:55We are tracking still this as an ABC structure,
03:57but I haven't got any clearly defined low in place.
04:01And we're only now approaching the 100% extension,
04:04which is normally the ideal target for a C-wave.
04:06So what we need to see here next is a break above the last swing high
04:10that formed at 78.8 cents for an early indication of a low.
04:15And then obviously a break above 85.5 cents.
04:18And we need a micro five-wave move up.
04:20At the moment, the local trend is down.
04:22It's still overall seen as a three-wave move down.
04:26But as you've just seen on the larger time frame,
04:28there is a potential that this turns into a larger pullback.
04:32I mean, we can add this area now to this time frame as well.
04:37It's just that this might not be a wave four anymore, okay?
04:41So that's why I wanted to show you both time frames.
04:44Depending on how deep we go, you know, if we reach the 50% FIP level,
04:48then I will probably change the wave count here on the smaller time frame
04:51to reflect that this is either the D-wave or the B-wave.
04:56So we already have the support area in place for that.
04:58And technically speaking, this wave four that we're tracking here
05:01isn't going to be invalidated until we break below the wave one high anyway,
05:06technically speaking, right?
05:07And that's at 61.2 cents.
05:09But you know that this is already a deep wave four,
05:11so it's not ideal anymore.
05:13But yeah, basically, watching here for a reaction,
05:16maybe in this area around 69.9 cents to 68.8.
05:22But below that level, it's going to really get tough for the bulls, you know?
05:27That doesn't mean further upside is ruled out,
05:29but it means that this is not an upside impulse anymore.
05:32Same discussion we had on the Bitcoin chart might not be an upside impulse anymore.
05:35So that's the update on ADA.
05:37I hope you liked the update.
05:38If you did, please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe.
05:42And if you really like the content,
05:44then please check out the channel membership.
05:46Thank you very much.
05:47Bye-bye.
05:48Thanks so much for watching the videos on this YouTube channel.
05:51If you've been thinking about joining MCO as a member,
05:54now might be a great time.
05:55You can use the link in the video description
05:57and apply the discount code right below it.
06:00You will get 50% off your first month of our gold membership
06:04and you can explore everything we offer.
06:07It's the easiest way to test the membership,
06:09see if it's a good fit for you
06:11and get a feel for the community,
06:13join the conversation
06:14and I'm looking forward to meeting you in our member area.
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