As Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act for deportations, is admin pursuing regime change in Venezuela?

4 months ago

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00:00A small, fast boat that was apparently carrying drugs yesterday really upped the ante,

00:07showed that they are willing to use this kind of force in this context.

00:11And then Venezuela overflew some of these military boats or some of these ships with F-16s.

00:19And so that also was a provocative action to take.

00:22And so these are not good things.

00:26This is not a good situation.

00:27I think it's, you know, the entire operation is really built on false pretenses.

00:32The idea that Nicolas Maduro is the head of something that's called Cartel de los Soles.

00:37There's no evidence of anything existing called Cartel de los Soles,

00:41as much as that Maduro would be in charge of it.

00:43So, you know, there's a lot of questions about this whole operation.

00:47And unfortunately, we're starting to see, you know, some actual action from it.

00:53It's a really interesting point, Dave, because if we listen to Marco Rubio,

00:56if we listen to Peter Hegseth, who talk about the kingpin being Nicolas Maduro,

01:00and when we think of cartels and which is labeling them as terrorist organizations,

01:05and we think of, say, the Sinaloa drugs organization,

01:08from your knowledge of the Cartel de los Soles, how does it compare?

01:13There is no Cartel de los Soles, no.

01:17What there is is drug trafficking in Venezuela that are small groups.

01:21Some of them work through the military.

01:23Many of them, as everywhere, have some sort of inroads into the government.

01:27No, these are small.

01:29The military, of course, in Venezuela controls the borders,

01:31controls the ports, controls the airports.

01:33And so, of course, they're going to be involved in the drug trafficking there is.

01:37It's something that exists throughout the region when you have this very,

01:41very valuable substance that can be trafficked in a situation

01:45where you have weak institutions and a lot of poverty.

01:47It's almost inevitable.

01:49But this idea of Cartel de los Soles,

01:50that actually was sort of a tongue-in-cheek shorthand to refer,

01:57created by journalists to refer to the fact that there were military officials

02:02involved in drug trafficking in the 1990s is when that term first was used.

02:08Over the years, it's kind of taken on life on its own.

02:10In 2020, it was used in an indictment, a federal indictment in the United States,

02:15saying that, you know, Nicolas Maduro was the head of this thing

02:18called the Cartel de los Soles.

02:20But there is nobody that would say they're part of Cartel de los Soles.

02:23There's no director of Cartel de los Soles.

02:25There is nothing that you could say in an organization called Cartel de los Soles.

02:29That is, you know, something that, you know,

02:34was originally almost a tongue-in-cheek sort of shorthand

02:37for military officials involved in drug trafficking.

02:40But now it's become this thing, you know, which is very useful

02:44if you want to try and say, oh, you know, Nicolas Maduro is the head of this thing

02:47and it's terrorizing the United States.

02:50So, you know, I think all of those, sure, yes, there is drug trafficking.

02:55Yes, there are people in the government involved that at least know about it.

02:59And I'm sure Maduro and Deja Cabello at different times have known about drug shipments.

03:03But from there to say that they're the head of the Cartel de los Soles

03:08and the Train de Aragua is really just a complete stretch.

03:12You know, the U.S. intelligence has said that Luis Maduro is not the head of the Train de Aragua.

03:17Train de Aragua is a criminal gang in Venezuela.

03:22It operates in Venezuela, in Colombia, Chile, Peru.

03:26You know, they're very small presidents in the United States.

03:28They're not known for a maritime operation.

03:30And so the idea that these young men that were on this boat,

03:36this fast boat, were from the Train de Aragua,

03:39there's no evidence of that.

03:40It would be really surprising.

03:41So all of this operation really is sort of taking place with very poor information,

03:47very little evidence, a lot of metaphors, a lot of rhetoric that are covering over for other purposes, I think.

03:54Let's try to kind of burn down into the core of this then,

03:57because you talk about the Train de Aragua, the Aragua train,

03:59which is what we saw a few months ago when alleged members of this group,

04:03more than 200, were sent to El Salvador.

04:05And we saw what became of that and the controversy it caused.

04:09You also talk about this Cartel de los Soles that essentially non-existent.

04:13But then it leads you to the question of who is briefing Trump on this.

04:16Now, if Trump, you know, those around him say he may not always have the best grasp of history.

04:20And if he's telling a convenient story here, what's your understanding of what's behind that story?

04:28And I'm minded to say two things that strike me.

04:31One is the narrative on the drugs trade, but also the narrative on the immigration route

04:36and Venezuela being high on that right now.

04:38Yeah, so this idea that there's this Cartel de los Soles that Nicolas Maduro is ahead of,

04:46well, that actually came from a U.S. indictment in the first Trump administration.

04:51But after the 2024 election that Nicolas Maduro stole in a very crass way,

04:58Maria Cordelia Machal and her various officials started to promote the idea that Nicolas Maduro

05:06was also in control of the train de Aragua and that this was, you know,

05:10something that they were using to invade the United States.

05:14Trump comes along in his campaign, in his government, and starts to say,

05:18well, that actually what this is, you know, this is a result of Biden's immigration policies

05:23that were being invaded, you know?

05:25And so he used this idea of a train de Aragua to say, well, look it, this is an enemy invasion

05:32and we can take these Venezuelans and we can deport them using the Alien Enemies Act,

05:36you know, this law that comes from the 18th century.

05:39He did this in March, you know, in May, the Supreme Court shot this down and said,

05:44well, actually, no, you know, they put a stay on this,

05:47that you actually have to give them right to defense.

05:48But they sent it back to a lower court, sent it back to a lower federal court.

05:52And just this week, they ruled that, you know, the Trump administration could not use that.

05:59There was not an invasion from Venezuela.

06:01There was a dissenting, a very strong dissenting opinion.

06:03It was a divided decision.

06:04Now this is going back to the Supreme Court.

06:06And so one thing that is involved here is that if there can be a conflict with Venezuela,

06:11if there can be, you know, exchange of fire,

06:15I think just having all these military ships off the coast of Venezuela is going to provide enough space

06:20for the Supreme Court to say, look, we don't make foreign policy.

06:24We don't decide what wars the United States should take.

06:27We just interpret the law.

06:29And, you know, that decision is up to the United States.

06:32Trump says we're in a conflict with Venezuela.

06:34Well, he can use this Alien Enemies Act, you know.

06:36And so there's also that going on.

06:39No, I think there is a strong contingency within the Trump administration that are pushing for regime change,

06:45that really think that this buildup will likely, that could lead to Nicolas Malouro

06:50or some kind of, you know, being turned on by military officials.

06:54There's that going on.

06:55And I think there's also this desire to be able to use the Alien Enemies Act going on, this immigration issue.

07:01Let me ask you a brief point about what you think this does for the reputation already sullied of Nicolas Maduro.

07:07And within the neighbors as well, this is a region where clearly you've got U.S. warships.

07:12And not all neighbors are openly hostile to Maduro.

07:15I guess oil speaks for itself as well in that region, doesn't it?

07:21Yeah, I mean, I think one of the big issues here is that Nicolas Malouro is stigmatized.

07:27You know, there's almost there are very few people that support Malouro anymore.

07:31You know, it's very unfashionable to defend him.

07:34And so you can kind of say and do whatever.

07:37Say he's a drug kingpin.

07:38Who's going to contradict you on that?

07:40Say he's trying to invade the United States.

07:42Who's going to contradict you on that?

07:43And so there's that going on.

07:46And in fact, you know, you can kind of see this attack on this fast boat yesterday as kind of a trial balloon.

07:56And the region didn't speak out all that much.

07:59You know, in Brazil, he pushed back on it, but not in a full-throated way.

08:03Colombia is very sort of interested in being, having its, you know, renewal as fighting against drug trafficking.

08:12And so there hasn't been a whole lot of regional support.

08:15And for Malouro, you know, it's a moment when he doesn't have a whole lot of allies.

08:19He's stigmatized.

08:21And so he's somebody that, you know, you can say anything you want about.

08:26And it's, you know, it's difficult.

08:27I don't think this is going to make Malouro recover.

08:29You know, I think it probably strengthens his hold within his coalition.

08:34These things tend to get the Malouro coalition to sort of solidify and unify, you know, for security reasons.

08:42And so, and I think it's going to just provide an excuse to crack down further on the opposition in Venezuela.

08:48So I think internally it probably strengthens him in the short run.

08:52I think externally he doesn't have many full-throated allies anymore.

08:56And so, you know, it's a tough situation.

08:59David, really good to get your thoughts.

09:00Really good to talk to you.

09:01Thank you for your time.

09:02David Snilda, professor of human relations and senior associate at the Center for Inter-American Policy at the Tulane University in New Orleans.

As Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act for deportations, is admin pursuing regime change in Venezuela?

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