‘Resigned to Failure?’ Bayrou’s ‘doomed gamble’ harks back to Macron's 2024 snap elections fallout

4 months ago

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00:00French President Emmanuel Macron will be taking over the role of Prime Minister this Tuesday.

00:15That is, until he names another man for the job.

00:18It comes after François Bayrou was voted out of office, losing a vote of confidence he had himself called.

00:24It leaves the country in political and financial uncertainty.

00:27James Vecina tells us more.

00:30364 votes against, 194 in favour, and France now needs another Prime Minister.

00:39A crushing defeat for François Bayrou, the centrist politician was seeking to pass a budget for next year

00:45that would require over €40bn worth of savings, in an effort to reduce France's soaring debt.

00:54Unpopular with lawmakers and with his exit looming, Bayrou issued a final warning.

00:59Dear lawmakers, you have the power to make the government fall, but you cannot erase reality.

01:07Reality will remain inescapable.

01:11Spending will continue to rise even more.

01:14And the burden of debt that's already unbearable will become ever heavier and ever more costly.

01:20From the far left to the far right, political parties from across the spectrum warned that they'd be voting against Bayrou's plans,

01:31which they deemed to be too heavy on French workers.

01:33A way of also increasing pressure on President Emmanuel Macron, who's been working with a minority government since last year.

01:42I believe that Emmanuel Macron must have the perfect lucidity to realize that he lost the elections a year ago,

01:48that the desire for change among the French people is considerable,

01:52and that he's largely responsible for the financial situation in which we find ourselves.

01:57The country's debt has reached 114% of its GDP, making it Europe's third highest behind Greece and Italy.

02:05And, crucially, France has been in debt for the last 50 years.

02:10But faced with continuous turmoil, governments have been unable to make the changes that they sought.

02:15I'd wish that over the 18 months that lie ahead, we may make use of this time and not see months of repeated deadlock.

02:26We need to seek common ground, address urgent matters, protect French people, and prepare for the future.

02:35Just like Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier, François Bayrou joins the growing list of prime ministers

02:43having served for just a few months under Emmanuel Macron.

02:48Bayrou will be handing in his resignation on Tuesday,

02:51as the president will be left to nominate another prime minister,

02:54who, against all odds, may find unanimity across parliament.

02:58Well, to get more insight, we can speak now to professor and researcher

03:04at the Insect Business School Grande École, Dr Olivier Guillotot.

03:07Thanks so much for your time.

03:09Can I start by asking you, what do you think needs to happen now

03:13to get French politics, for a start, back on track?

03:18Well, this is a real good question.

03:22For the moment, it's going to be a bit chaotic,

03:24and obviously the social situation with the general strike,

03:28which is supposed to happen on Wednesday, will not ease the situation.

03:33But obviously the priority is to have a new government,

03:38and Macron is going to be working on this.

03:40They are talking about maybe somebody like Xavier Bertrand,

03:45who is from the right wing, to be a potential candidate.

03:50He won't be calling somebody from the extreme right or from the extreme left,

03:57that is for sure.

03:58So, in a way, it's all finding the same kind of balance he had with Bayrou,

04:08or there will be more chaos.

04:10And then, obviously, many options are on the table.

04:14LFE is calling for his resignation.

04:16The national front, I mean, the national rally is calling for a new legislative election.

04:24It's going to be interesting, but it's difficult to say what it's going to be.

04:28Maybe the pressure from the street could actually accelerate things.

04:34We'll see.

04:35Because of Bayrou, I mean, it was his sixth prime minister.

04:38One wonders if, continuing in the same steed,

04:42how much the government can advance on any of its projects in that case.

04:49Yeah, well, the problem is that there is no majority at the moment in the French assembly.

04:55And in a way, whoever is going to be the prime minister, the problem will remain.

05:01And so, that is where Macron stands now.

05:07And which is, in a way, surprising, is why actually Bayrou,

05:13because he proposed his vote of confidence.

05:16And it was a doomed gamble from the start.

05:18Everybody knew he was going to fail.

05:20And so, was it a kind of resignation to failure?

05:25And because he knew he wanted to sort of get an exit before this, like, this sort of social period?

05:34Or did he really believe he could make it?

05:37In a way, it recall, like, Macron's triggering the last legislative election,

05:43when he thought he could make it, win a majority.

05:46And everybody knew it was not going to happen.

05:48On this occasion, I mean, Bayrou was trying to pass his budget

05:52and said he was putting himself up for that vote of no confidence

05:54in order to be able to pass his budget.

05:56I mean, does it all ultimately come down to money?

06:00Well, this is a big question, obviously,

06:03because, you know, politicians don't want to send messages to people,

06:08you're going to have more taxes and you need to make efforts.

06:12And Bayrou took the sort of position, like, he tried to give this image of responsibility

06:19to the French people, saying, you know, this is the time to make a decision.

06:25This is important.

06:26We cannot, like, spend as much as we've been doing for many years.

06:32And the other parties say, no, no, we cannot have such a strict and such a budget.

06:41Then, obviously, there is a debate in France between some people,

06:46especially the right, saying we need to be a bit more cautious with, like, with the money.

06:51And some people, more on the left, saying, you know, I mean, the debt,

06:56it's only a question of trust with the market.

06:59It's not about the money.

07:00I mean, loads of countries have huge debts, like the United States,

07:05and things keep going on.

07:10So I think for him, it was also a bit of a way to get out in style,

07:17in a way, saying, you know, I am the guy, I'm the wise guy.

07:21I'm the statesman.

07:22I'm able to take my responsibilities.

07:25Tell me, though, then, given that, you know,

07:27you're coming to us from a leading business school,

07:29I mean, how bad is France's financial situation?

07:33I mean, what does?

07:34Is, you know, is the government actually on a knife age when it comes to its budget?

07:38Or is it just being used as a political argument, if you like?

07:43Well, I mean, the deficit is worse than it was before.

07:47But if you look around other countries, I mean,

07:51every country is a bit in the same situation.

07:54I don't have the feeling that France's situation is that dramatic

07:59if you compare it to many countries.

08:01I was in England.

08:02I was in Poland.

08:03And when you look at all this country, every country is a bit in this situation.

08:08The thing is, France is more that it was better before.

08:12And in a way, this is the result of all the money

08:15the governments have been spending after the COVID crisis.

08:19They spend a lot during the COVID crisis.

08:20And they kept on spending after the COVID crisis.

08:24I think people get used to this.

08:26And politicians kept on saying, OK, we are going to have more money.

08:32So I think there is an issue.

08:35But the issue is more, as I was saying before,

08:39it's about like market trust.

08:42It's about the image of France.

08:44And if we can borrow money at a sort of decent price,

08:48because people say these days we borrow money,

08:51but we are in a worse situation than Greece, than Italy.

08:55And this is something that people see as a real danger,

08:58which is surprising in a way,

09:00because if you look at the geopolitical situation,

09:04I mean, France remains a key player.

09:07When you look at like Gaza, when you look at Ukraine,

09:10I mean, when you look at foreign papers,

09:13Macron is there, France's voice seems to be important.

09:17But yeah, economically speaking, there is a bit of a situation.

09:22Even if, I mean, I live in France,

09:24I don't feel the situation is that dramatic.

09:28But market can, you know, if market suddenly starts changing,

09:32it can be a problem.

09:33You mentioned there the image of France.

09:35And of course, we are gearing up for large-scale nationwide protests,

09:39this block-everything group aiming to take to the streets.

09:43The impact of that?

09:46Well, the impact will depend on how big the movement is.

09:51Obviously, everybody recalls like les Gilets jaunes.

09:56I don't think it will be that big because I think people want to show

10:03that they are kind of, they are not very happy with the situation.

10:08But I feel the movement is already politically very, very, very orientated.

10:15And so I think this will also weaken its strengths and its position.

10:20So let's see how it goes.

10:23Wednesday is going to be messy, obviously.

10:26And on the 18th, there is another day.

10:28Will it take such, such, will it be such a wave that it really makes the country like

10:35in a situation where, for example, Macron feels the pressure and will be obliged to resign?

10:40I don't think so.

10:42Even if I can anticipate, I don't have the feeling it will be that strong.

10:47Dr. Olivier Guilotto of Insect Business School in Bordeaux,

10:51thanks very much indeed for joining us and bringing us your insight.

‘Resigned to Failure?’ Bayrou’s ‘doomed gamble’ harks back to Macron's 2024 snap elections fallout

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