00:00Well, here we are in the second half of September, and we have yet to have a landfalling storm this month along the East Coast.
00:08The question is, will we have any this month?
00:11I'm here to tell you, I don't think so.
00:14South Florida is a little, one area I could see it, but for the rest of the country, I think we can go this entire month without a landfalling storm.
00:23That's a big statement to make.
00:25All right, we have been telling you about this, though.
00:27We've been concerned about what? The Caribbean as an area to watch out for, for development.
00:35Why? Because we have warm water and lowering wind shear.
00:39That's the key, lowering wind shear.
00:41The water has been plenty warm enough this entire month.
00:45In fact, much of this year, the water has been warmer than normal here.
00:50And these are the water temperature anomalies here.
00:52Not only is it warm, but you see this orange area?
00:55You're looking at water temperatures about three or four degrees above historical averages.
01:01So, warm water is not a problem at all.
01:03Now, we're not going to worry about Gabrielle, but there is one tropical wave I want to keep an eye on.
01:08This is it right now, off the West Coast of Africa.
01:11Now, don't expect to hear much from this system the rest of this week.
01:16And I'll show you why.
01:18It's going through very hostile conditions.
01:20Low, very high wind shear and dry air.
01:23However, next week, it enters into the Caribbean.
01:26If there's anything left, and I mean anything left, moisture or structure-wise,
01:31it has a chance to develop in the Northwest Caribbean here.
01:36I want to show you the modeling, and I want to show you what this wave has to get through
01:40to be able to develop here.
01:42This is the wind shear product here, and it's pretty simple.
01:46The darker colors shows wind shear.
01:48So, again, this tropical system right now, this is the West Coast of Africa.
01:52These are the islands right here.
01:54This is located in here.
01:56This is the wind shear shown today.
01:58Look at all the yellows and blues.
02:01Take a look at Sunday.
02:03It's still going to be getting through this wind shear to the east of the islands.
02:07Let's take a look at Monday.
02:09Now, by Monday, this tropical system will be right in here.
02:12It's lower wind shear.
02:13You see some blues, but you see the wind direction?
02:16It's coming out of the West Northwest.
02:18That's going to weaken it.
02:20However, as we get into Wednesday, all of a sudden, it gets into the Caribbean,
02:25and what do you start seeing?
02:27This lower wind shear.
02:29You notice that?
02:29Let's take a look at Thursday of next week, right here.
02:33How about Friday of next week?
02:34Right here.
02:35There is no wind shear.
02:37No wind shear in the Northwest Caribbean.
02:39So, as a result, we're going to track this.
02:43I think a lot of people are going to forget about that.
02:45This time of year, you know the rule.
02:46We don't forget about anything.
02:48We track these systems until they either go over land or dissipate.
02:52There's a low chance of development because there may not be anything left of this.
02:56If it develops, it's almost eight days from now.
02:59Now, I am starting to think, though, it is going to be very unlikely, very unlikely this month,
03:06for anything to get into the Gulf of America and develop.
03:11Look at the wind shear here.
03:13There's our wind shear.
03:13Look at all this wind shear in the Gulf.
03:15You see that?
03:16And off the East Coast.
03:17Anything that tries to come up toward the East Coast is just going to get shredded or pushed to the East.
03:23And when you look at the weather pattern, this struck me today.
03:26I want to show you the weather pattern across North America right now.
03:30What do you see in North America right now?
03:33This is the weather pattern for next week already.
03:37As we get in next week, this is next Wednesday.
03:39What do you see?
03:40Dip in the jet stream.
03:42Westerly winds along the Gulf and off the East Coast.
03:47What about the end of the month?
03:48By September 30th, what do you see?
03:51Trophiness.
03:52Dips in the jet stream.
03:54Producing the what?
03:55West-southwest winds.
03:56Anything trying to come out of the Gulf, the only location it could possibly impact would be South Florida.
04:03But if this pattern continues in the October, you can cancel out most of the Gulf, you can cancel out Texas,
04:10and you can cancel out the East Coast for any landfalling storms.
04:14If this pattern continues, and right now, I think it can, and that's the big story there.
04:21South Florida is the one area to watch, but for the rest of the country,
04:24if this trough continues in the eastern and central United States, there won't be any landfalling storms.
04:30And that's the huge statement we're making on the feed.
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