The HARSH Truth About The Mandalorian and Grogu...

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Transcript

00:00Hello there my dear friends, and welcome back to another very exciting Star Wars video.

00:04It is I coming at you once again, your favourite Galactic hostess, Star Wars Meg.

00:10And I just want to begin by wishing you a very happy spooky month.

00:13It is the start of October, and Halloween is upon us.

00:17So if you celebrate, I hope you're feeling spooky vibes.

00:20I might do something special with Halloween this year, not sure.

00:23But today, we're going to be returning to the Mandalorian in Grogu.

00:26Because while I've broken down the big easter eggs and the references in the recent trailer,

00:32we need to talk about the elephant in the room, the projected performance, and box office of the movie.

00:38Oh yes, I've seen many Star Wars fans and content creators alike share their predictions for how the movie is going to perform.

00:45But I think a lot of fans are missing the point, and so that's where this video comes in.

00:50I want to talk to you guys about how I think the movie is going to do,

00:53but also Disney's logic for putting out this movie first.

00:58Now look, as you guys know, I enjoyed the trailer more than most.

01:02I understand the apathy around Star Wars at the moment.

01:05I understand the criticisms that the trailer just looks like another season of the TV show.

01:09I understand the confusion of them putting out this movie before Starfighter.

01:13And I could ramble to you guys all day about how this movie came four years too late.

01:17How they should have put a Mandalorian movie in the cinemas after the second season,

01:22when Mando hype and Grogu hype was at its peak.

01:26But I think we've already talked about those things enough.

01:28Now I have seen predictions all over the map, and not just from Star Wars fans.

01:33I've seen industry insiders talk about it.

01:35I've seen the trades discuss it.

01:37On the lower end, there are some people who said it won't even break 200 or 300 million.

01:41And on the more ambitious end, I've seen some fans say it might make a billion dollars, or even two billion.

01:50Now personally, with all due respect to differing opinions, I think that's an absurd figure.

01:55If you want to know my take before I get into the breakdown, if you just want my quick response,

02:00I predict the movie's going to make between 500 and 700 million.

02:04But, I'm going to share with you a few scenarios that I can definitely see playing out.

02:08And I also want to explain to you why Disney doesn't really care how this movie performs.

02:13Let me break this all down.

02:15So the first thing to note, is the budget for the Mandalorian in Grogu is about 166 million dollars.

02:21In terms of how this compares to other recent Star Wars movies,

02:25it is the cheapest of the Disney Star Wars era.

02:28Not the cheapest in Star Wars history, but the cheapest of the Disney Star Wars films.

02:33The Force Awakens cost about 366 million.

02:36Rogue One, a Star Wars story, 236.

02:40The Last Jedi, episode 8, 303 million.

02:44Solo, a Star Wars story, which bombed, 310 million.

02:48And The Rise of Skywalker, 305.

02:50So 166 for the Mandalorian in Grogu is very cheap.

02:54And this is why, even if the Mandalorian in Grogu doesn't break a billion dollars,

02:59it still will be considered a success.

03:01Not just this, Disney knows that they're going to put it on the streaming service after the movie's done the rounds.

03:08That's not even taking into account all the merch, general awareness, and cross-marketing of the Disney Plus show.

03:14And so because the budget is so cheap, they don't really care if it quote-unquote flops in the traditional sense.

03:20Even if it generates the same box office as Solo, a Star Wars story.

03:24Comparative to its budget, The Mandalorian in Grogu will be considered a success.

03:29Another very important thing to keep in mind, is this movie comes from several episodes that were going to be part of season 4.

03:36So The Mandalorian in Grogu spawned after Jon Favreau wrote season 4.

03:40And while the movie has been filmed for IMAX, it really is just a continuation of the same format.

03:46And because an average season of Mando costs around $120 million, similar to this movie,

03:51Disney is not treating this in the same way they would treat a sequel trilogy movie.

03:55Or perhaps even the way they're going to treat Starfighter.

03:58They're seeing this as an extension of the TV show.

04:01So the bar is quite low for what's considered a success.

04:05Especially compared to other Star Wars movies.

04:07Now this is where I want to talk to you guys about alternative scenarios.

04:12What if I'm wrong?

04:13What if I'm vastly underestimating the box office?

04:16What if casual audiences show up to this movie in droves?

04:19Because Grogu is a great attraction for Disney.

04:22A cash cow.

04:23In terms of merchandise, wider appeal, for families, for kids.

04:28Someone actually wrote to me on Twitter about this and I think their point is very valid.

04:31And maybe I am being too narrow in my consideration of what online fans have said.

04:35The wider audience is bigger than you think.

04:38And not everyone has this apathetic view of Star Wars.

04:41So this person said,

04:42Depends on marketing.

04:44Too many nerds in the social media echo chamber have an overinflated sense of their own impact on general audiences.

04:51There are practically zero major film releases between Avatar, that's Avatar 3 coming soon, and Mando.

04:57So if the film looks entertaining, and it's marketed well, it will make money.

05:02And in a way, I think this is why The Mandalorian in Grogu is so important.

05:05Because if nothing else, it will tell us the general state of Star Wars.

05:10Outside of this online bubble.

05:12Because since The Rise of Skywalker, it's all been streaming.

05:15And not everyone's seen all the shows.

05:17Not every general Star Wars fan knows about Kenobi, or Book of Boba Fett, or The Acolytes.

05:22Not every single fan on the planet is going to keep up with Star Wars news, and the drama that goes on.

05:27So, it will be interesting to see how the general, wider cinema-goers, react to The Mandalorian in Grogu.

05:34I think Disney knows this.

05:35They've put their flagship show, the one that kicked off Disney Plus in the first place, on the big screen.

05:40And we jolly well know the performance of Mando is going to dictate if the show comes back for season 4.

05:46Or if they make more Mando movies.

05:48I'm already seeing people say this movie is dead on arrival, they're never going to make it into a trilogy.

05:53But I would say be patient, let's wait and see.

05:56It's not the best time to release it, I will give you that.

05:59That was a few years ago.

06:00But the appeal of Grogu still exists.

06:03I still see people buying Grogu merch, walking around with t-shirts that say this is the way.

06:08Just yesterday on the train I saw someone wearing that.

06:11I even see people wear those little Grogu Funko keychains, and they put them on their backpacks.

06:16And we know from several reports, that despite the Disney Plus shows not making a profit,

06:20Star Wars merchandise is still a huge source of revenue for the mouse.

06:24And just go to Comic Con or Star Wars Celebration, you will see that passionate Mando fans still exist.

06:30But like I say, it could go either way.

06:32I am sensing enormous apathy towards the brand.

06:35And just look at the views on the trailer.

06:37Compared to viewership on the sequel trilogy teasers, the Mandalorian and Grogu viewership is pretty low.

06:43So what's going to be vitally important in all of this is the currently unmeasurable hunger for the Mandalorian on the big screen.

06:50Maybe it will surprise us, or maybe it'll be a disaster.

06:53For my prediction, I'm going to stick to 500 to 700 mil.

06:57That's what I think the realistic ballpark is going to be.

07:00And then once the movie has gone out of cinemas, comes to Disney Plus, we'll see how many fans just waited to see it on the streaming service.

07:07And I'm sure there'll be a lot to break down.

07:08But I wanted to talk about this because there's a lot of talk, a lot of projections.

07:13And on the one hand, I think people are being way too optimistic.

07:16And on the other, I think fans have forgotten that to many, Grogu is still an exciting prospect.

07:21Even if the Grogu fad peaked in 2019, 2020, there is still demand for him.

07:28And people might just go because they've seen the poster, they've seen maybe a trailer for it,

07:33they remember Star Wars from back in the day, and it just looks like a fun time.

07:37And if you think that's not going to happen, it has for me.

07:39In my case, it's a reverse situation.

07:42You guys know, or maybe you don't know, so I'll tell you now.

07:45I'm a Star Wars fan, but I'm a very, very, very casual Marvel fan.

07:49So I don't really know much about the MCU, I've seen a few films here and there.

07:53But I've gone to Marvel movies just because they looked fun.

07:56I saw folks online talk about the movies, and I decided, let's see all the fuss is about.

08:01And I'm sure there are others in my position, but reversed for Star Wars.

08:05But what do you guys think?

08:06Am I right?

08:07Am I wrong?

08:08What are your predictions?

08:09Let me know in the comments down below.

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