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The Virginia Elections 2025 have officially entered their most crucial phase as polling stations close and counting begins. A tense face-off unfolds between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Rep. Abigail Spanberger, marking one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests of the year. Both candidates represent starkly different visions for Virginia’s future — Earle-Sears emphasizing conservative governance and business revival, while Spanberger champions progressive reforms and public service renewal. As results trickle in, voter turnout and suburban swing regions are expected to play a decisive role in determining the state’s next leader.

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00:00and California. Joining us this evening is Matthew Klein. He is with the Cook Political Report with
00:05Amy Walter. He analyzes house races as well as the gubernatorial. And Sabrina Siddiqui is with
00:13the National Political Reporter with the Wall Street Journal. And we thank you both for being
00:17here with us tonight. We are just about, what, four minutes away here from Virginia polls closing.
00:24Matthew Klein, do you think we get a call right away?
00:27Oh, right away? I don't know. That's a good question. It will probably come fairly quickly.
00:32Based on everything we've seen so far, if this is really going to be the decisive night for
00:36Abigail Spanberger that a lot of the polls have indicated that it might be, then yeah,
00:40we'll probably get a call fairly soon. It'll take a little while longer to call the Attorney
00:45General's race. Obviously, that has a history of voting very competitively. The Attorney General
00:50contests often take a little bit longer in Virginia. And I think because of the circumstances of the
00:55current contest between Jay Jones and Jason Meyers, the incumbent Republican, it's probably going to
01:01be, you know, a fairly long night before we have an answer on that one.
01:05One of our first callers came from Arlington, Virginia, suburbs here of Washington, D.C. Talk
01:11about Northern Virginia. How populated is this part of the state? And how quickly do they count votes
01:19there? Yeah. Northern Virginia is the engine of Democratic strength in Virginia. And it's part of
01:25the reason that the state swung from being sort of a Republican stronghold back in the 80s and 90s,
01:30really one of the few Southern states that was Republican, to now being one of the few Southern
01:35states that votes Democratic. The growth of Northern Virginia, Arlington, but Fairfax County,
01:40Loudoun County in particular, Prince William, some of those counties where it's really expanded out,
01:44has just been a huge, huge asset for Democrats. And it's also been particularly hard hit by the
01:51federal workforce layoffs that have happened and the government shutdown. And government shutdown
01:55doesn't just affect people who have been directly laid off by the federal government. Around here,
02:01it affects, you know, the people who are contractors for the federal government or who work
02:04closely with federal employees, rely on federal employees, getting them, you know, to and from for
02:08their businesses. And so, yeah, absolutely. Northern Virginia is an extremely crucial part of this
02:14equation. Some parts of it count faster than others. So we'll keep an eye on, you know, which
02:18parts do and don't. But I think, you know, we'll get a pretty early, pretty good sense of it pretty
02:22early on. When you look at the state, where are there Republican strongholds versus the Democratic
02:29strongholds that you just talked about? Yeah, Republicans have much stronger bases of support
02:33out in rural Virginia, particularly out in Western Virginia, more Appalachian. It's more mountainous,
02:40culturally more conservative out there. Republicans also do fairly well in some of the,
02:44suburbs of Richmond, the exurbs of Richmond. They've really lost a lot of ground here in
02:49Northern Virginia. So they used to have a decent base of support in Fairfax County. And in recent
02:54years, that's kind of gone away and they've become a much more rural-centric party. There is some
02:59Republican strength still in the Virginia Beach area. That continues to be represented by a Republican
03:03in Congress. But by and large, Republicans have seen their, while they may have seen their
03:08geographical footprint expand a little bit, they've, you know, taken over some more of the rural area,
03:12their actual share of the vote has diminished in recent cycles. And it seems like tonight's going
03:16to be another example of that. So when you look at the votes coming in right away when polls close
03:21at seven, as we see the percentage start to trickle in, what will it look like? Could it look lopsided
03:28at first? Yeah, certainly. And I think it's important not to make too many predictions based on anything that we're
03:34seeing right really, very quickly. We'll want to wait until we have some counties that have fully reported,
03:39which may take a little while before we can start actually comparing them to where things were last
03:43cycle in 2024, 2021, 2020. Abigail Spanberger, if she wins tonight, Sabrina, what does that mean for
03:53the Democratic Party? She's a national security candidate, a moderate Democrat. What does the party
04:01do with that? Is that a winning formula for them? I think the party believes that it is because I think
04:07they're looking at all of this depending on where that candidate is elected, right? So Abigail Spanberger
04:14is a very different type of candidate than Zoran Mamdani. And it's very likely that both of them
04:20will win their races tonight. And in some ways, it's the best of both worlds for Democrats as they are
04:25trying to reassemble this coalition that they lost in the last election cycle, where they were really
04:33struggling between appealing to centrists, you know, in a race ultimately between eventually
04:41between Vice President Harris and President Trump, at the same time as trying not to contend with the
04:47fact that they had turned off a lot of the progressive liberal leaning base. So, you know,
04:53I think Democrats are pretty enthusiastic about her candidacy. Also, she will make history. Either way,
04:59history will be made. Virginia will be electing also its first female governor, which is also worth
05:04marking, even though they didn't talk about it a lot on the campaign trail. But coming back to just
05:08the themes that we've seen, I think, you know, if this election is, if tonight is ultimately about
05:13costs of living, the economy, inflation, then I think Abigail Spanberger is going to have a really
05:18good night. Again, the margin is what Democrats are looking for. They really want it to be a very
05:24decisive victory because the more decisive and the more confident that they'll feel about rebuilding
05:29the party's image rather than simply a protest vote against President Trump. All right. The polls
05:34closed 90 seconds ago in Virginia. We are just a minute and change after 7 p.m. Eastern time here
05:42on the East Coast. And we are watching the candidates in the Virginia gubernatorial race. We've got cameras at
05:50the headquarters tonight. On your left is the headquarters for Abigail Spanberger. She's in
05:55Richmond, Virginia, the capital of the state. And the lieutenant governor, the Republican candidate,
06:01Winsome Earl Sears. She is in Leesburg, Virginia. When the candidates come out to speak, we will bring
06:08you live coverage of their remarks. That's all part of C-SPAN's election night 2025 coverage.
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