NCAAF Week 11: Best Bets & Updated AP Top 25 Rankings

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00:00Let's get on some spread lines, people. This weekend, college football, certainly as we just

00:04saw. Hey, you know what? There's a TV show that lets us know the rankings when we already know

00:08the rankings and nothing means anything here. When I'd say there's money grabs in sports,

00:13that show is the ultimate money grab. I will not watch one second of what the committee thinks and

00:18where those teams will be because why? We have multiple weeks to let it play out. You know what

00:23I want that TV show, Joe? After the season is done and we know where these teams are going to

00:28be playing what the seedings are. I don't need it five weeks ahead of time, but that's what we get.

00:32But now let's shift our focus to 730 at night in the SEC on Saturday night, Florida and Kentucky.

00:37Line open up as a favorite towards Florida, four and a half. Now down to three at most outlets,

00:42Kentucky, the underdog and a low total, Joe, of 44 and a half. Florida, Kentucky,

00:47what's the spread line here? Well, we just watched Florida lose to Georgia, but they did cover as a

00:55seven point dog in that spot. Now, on the other hand, we just watched Kentucky shock Auburn and

01:01get Hugh Freeze fired in a whopping 10-3 game. They were an 11 and a half point road dog in that

01:09one there. But the interesting part of it, Donnie, is that Florida opened as this three and a half

01:14point road favorite. And all I have seen is tickets coming in on the Gators because it appears that the

01:20public thinks that line is just wrong. It's way too short. There's no way you can back a Kentucky

01:26offense against this Gators defense. The problem is, Donnie, this line is frozen. It's not going

01:31anywhere, which tells me there is a whole lot of pushback and a line drawn in the sand here

01:36with Kentucky. So while the public is on Florida, there is clearly some very influential money and

01:45betters backing Kentucky in this one. I'm wondering if this thing gets down to three.

01:51No way I can back Kentucky, but if I can get rid of the hook, I might very well be jumping in.

01:57Let's stay on Saturday night. College football, 730 out there on the West Coast. Nevada is going to

02:02take on Utah State. This line, Joe, the look ahead was over 10 points, actually 11 and a half at some

02:07outlets. We're now below double digits between nine and a half to nines. The total of this game is

02:12sitting there comfortably at 52 and a half. Nevada and Utah State. What's the spread line we should

02:17be associating here, Joe? Yeah, well, we can tell, Donnie. I mean, the public's not running to the

02:22window to back Nevada at Utah State, right? I mean, Nevada is one in seven. They just got beat up by

02:28Boise State. And then you had Utah State somehow lost to New Mexico. And they were a three-point road

02:35dog and got absolutely blown out. But you mentioned it. That line opens up 11 and a half.

02:41And boy, oh boy, the amount of money, not tickets, money, that has pushed that thing down

02:46tells me that the pros all over Nevada here, they are not buying it here, pushing this thing

02:54down to under double digits. This is a very notable move because this is one of the least

03:01heavily bet and probably one of the most overlooked games of the week. And when you see this kind

03:06of line move in a game like this, Donnie, it's not the public running the window betting 20 bucks

03:12on Nevada. This is a significant move, one that tells me the pros are all over Nevada here.

03:18The most meaningless show on television. And no, it's not the early line. This is one of the most

03:22important shows you're going to watch to set you up for your sports grid day. It's how we get the day

03:26started. But I like to rail on certain topics, Joe, that don't make sense to me. I don't like waste of

03:30time. That's number one. The college football playoff ranking show is an unbelievable waste of

03:35time that has no business being on TV or even being talked about. But yeah, Joe, here we are

03:41in the early line of the sports grid. Now we're talking about it because it is news. Number one,

03:45Ohio State. Number two, Indiana. Number three, Texas A&M. Yeah, thanks for playing at this point

03:48here. But the question is always is who's going to fill out the rest of that top 10? Notre Dame,

03:54Texas, and OU. Now here's also what I like in the college football playoff rankings. And this is

03:59what I rail upon where it's like, well, you got to save some of the power five teams to get in.

04:04No, you don't. We just want the best 12 teams in the college playoff, regardless of conference

04:10affiliation, Joe. That's how I see it here. But Notre Dame at number 10, I told you they're going

04:16to make it in, Joe. They will be a playoff team. Yeah. And you know, they, they mentioned it last night

04:22too, that they have this new metric that they, they spend an awful lot of time and emphasis on

04:29quality of competition. They call it this quote, record strength metric that they are using. So

04:35I like that idea because listen, I mean, you know, we talked about it like Georgia techs

04:41of the world, you know, congratulations on your great record and you've played absolutely

04:45nobody here. So they are putting a bigger emphasis on record strength, but that hasn't stopped them

04:52from putting Notre Dame, a couple of spots in the top 10, right? And Miami is 18 and Miami beat Notre

04:58Dame. And we got a couple of two lost teams that are just on the outside looking in. All of this is

05:04going to change, Donnie, all of it. But what's not going to change is the fact that the big 10 and the

05:10SEC dominate the best teams in college football. What a shock. Monster conferences like that,

05:18super conferences have most of those teams in the top 12 that would be looking in.

05:23And I don't mind it. Like, like just give me the big brands in the business that can win a

05:27championship. I like that. Here's also what I think is hilarious, which again, when I love the

05:33expansion because at least you're getting more teams in and it's never going to be perfect,

05:36because that's where the NCAA likes it. Oh, we don't want it to be perfect. We want people

05:39yelling and screaming. But if I go through Joe, number one, which is Ohio state to number 25,

05:43which is Tennessee. And I look in between, I go, there's no, you know, power, you know,

05:48outside of the power four teams listening here. And rightfully so. But once we get to the final show,

05:55the non-group of four power four school, they're going to be included in this. Why do we do this

06:00here, Joe? Why do we say, oh, well, let the teams outside the power fours in. Why do we have to let

06:04them in if they're not as good as anybody else? Well, I mean, in Virginia is the perfect case,

06:10right? I mean, Virginia is the, but what, has the best record? They're undefeated, right? They're

06:14the only ACC team worth even talking about, Donnie. And they're number, what, 14 here right now?

06:21I mean, so I, it's, and how, who should they be in over, right? With Virginia's schedule and who

06:28they've played in that week conference there. So yeah, there is still a lot that has to be determined

06:33here. And Virginia, I think is going to be a perfect test case. Are we getting the 12 best,

06:39Donnie, or are we, are we trying to figure out who deserves it more?

06:44Exactly. Now, look, I'll go through the rulings for you here. Pitt at 24, get out of town. Let's

06:48go through. Miami, get out of here. Georgia Tech, get out of here. Cardinals, get out of here.

06:53Louisville, Virginia, get out of here. So what I basically do, throw the ACC. The ACC should be a

06:57group of five conference, not actually our four conference at this point right here. Just give me

07:01Big Ten, just give me SEC, and leave me alone in my business, and away we go, which brings me up here.

07:07How about the Big 12? They got a monster game on tap this weekend, Joe. BYU and Texas Tech. And what

07:13if I would have told you it's a two top 10 teams, but a double digit favorite for Texas Tech over BYU

07:18and a total of 52 and a half. Is that too many points for a top 10 tilt, Joe?

07:24It feels it, Donnie, right? Because to me, these are two very good defensive teams with underrated

07:31offenses here. But to expect a blowout, and that's what that number is telling you,

07:37this game is going to be. Well, if it is, Donnie, I'll tell you this. We are underestimating

07:42Texas Tech then. We know they spent more money in NIL deals than just about anybody. But my

07:49goodness, if they end up blowing out covering that number there, yeah, then Texas Tech might

07:54be the Big 12 savior when it's all said and done. How about the Big 10 savior? Could it be Indiana with

08:00a chance to knock off Ohio State? They'll probably get their chance. But in the meantime, another state,

08:04Penn State, they're favored over two touchdowns. Signetti comes to Beaver Stadium and he's looking

08:09to tear that bad boy down without the renovation, Joe. Well, you know, Signetti, I mean, he's already

08:15made it quite clear that he if he can if he can run you over, then flip it in reverse and run you over

08:22again and then flip it. He is going to do it and could be a very long day in Happy Valley, especially

08:28since Indiana hasn't won there in 100 years. I hated Signetti last year. I love Signetti this

08:35year. How about that? Our number two is coming up. More hot topics on the way. The dial here.

08:41You got hockey. You got college basketball. You got a ton of things. College football? Absolutely.

08:54You want NBA action? It's all here. So a full board to get a bye-bye-bye best bet pick in here

08:59for Joe Ranieri. Where are we going today? Well, we'll go back to college football, even though I had

09:05to just absolutely want to throw up watching Miami of Ohio have, you know, eight shots from the one

09:12yard line to get us a touchdown and could only settle for three against Ohio U last night. But

09:18I'll go back to Maction tonight because we talked about this game in our spread lines yesterday as

09:23well, Donnie. Northern Illinois taking on Toledo. Toledo laying 14 and a half, 15, 15 and a half in

09:31some spots. And yet the total is 41 and a half to 42. That seems a little odd. You're expecting a team

09:37like Toledo, who we mentioned yesterday, has lost outright 12 times as a favorite of seven or more

09:45points and 18 times as an outright favorite since 2021. This is not a team that wins by these kinds of

09:54numbers. Very good defense for Northern Illinois. The offense isn't great, but that's why the total is

09:59slow, Donnie. And oh, yeah, by the way, up to 30 mile per hour wind gusts expected here tonight. Not great.

10:07I'll take the team with a low total getting over two touchdowns with Northern Illinois.

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