This special report focuses on the high-stakes 2020 Bihar Assembly election, as campaigning shifts to the crucial second phase. With top leaders like Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi descending on the state, all eyes are on the hotly contested Seemanchal region, with its significant Muslim population and the wildcard presence of Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. When asked if Nitish Kumar would remain Chief Minister, Home Minister Amit Shah stated, 'You are trying to create confusion on that issue.' The segment delves into the electoral arithmetic, with both the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan claiming an edge after the first phase of polling. The discussion also explores theories behind the increased voter turnout and analyses the complex political dynamics in Purnea and Katihar, where local strongman Pappu Yadav has lent his support to the Congress, making the fight for every seat even more intense.
00:00Hello and welcome, you're watching To The Point. I am Preeti Chaudhary.
00:04Well, campaigning now shifts to the second phase of election, the first phase done.
00:10Lots of speculation on the voter turnout. Bihar has outdone itself where the voter turnout is concerned.
00:16But in all probability, because of SIR, because of the total voters, a number of voters coming down,
00:23in a lot of ways, the uptick in voter turnout or the uptick in the percentage of voter turnout
00:30can actually be explained because, you know, there are over 45 lakh votes which are lesser this time around.
00:39Another big factor that everyone is talking about is it the Mahila factor that has spoken at the ballot.
00:47That's something that needs to be looked at.
00:48But campaigning viewers has now briskly shifted into the second phase.
00:54I join you right now from Purnia. It's the heart of C. Manchal.
00:58And today, Purnia saw a lot of action. Or rather, even yesterday, you had Rahul Gandhi.
01:02Today, there was a roadshow through the heart of Purnia, which is practically the guard of Pappu Yadav,
01:07who is supporting the Congress here. And tomorrow, you'll have no one else but Priyanka Gandhi,
01:12who will hold a rally in Purnia and neighboring Katihar.
01:16So, the big guns are actually booming when it comes down to the second phase of election.
01:22The NDA, very, very sure that they've got it in the bag where the first phase was concerned.
01:27It was to be advantage Mahagat Bandhan because if you just look at the pure,
01:31on pure virtue of the 121 seats that went to vote in the first phase of election,
01:37the last time around, the Mahagat Bandhan had 65 of these seats.
01:40So, it was advantage Mahagat Bandhan.
01:42And 56 had gone to the NDA.
01:44The NDA is very sure that they are going to make it, will be making up the difference.
01:49The Mahagat Bandhan says that we have been able, you know, to galvanize the core vote base
01:54and also pull in that extra percentage from other communities.
01:58But we'll only know what the result is when that last vote is counted come the 14th of November.
02:04But let's quickly dip into the campaign that is booming now with Simanchal, all eyes on this region.
02:12The Mahagat Bandhan, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region.
02:42The Mahagat Bandhan, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region.
02:46The Mahagat Bandhan, all eyes on this region, all eyes on this region.
02:51Bihar in Bihar has voted in Bihar, and before in Delhi they have voted in Bihar.
03:00They have 2 votes, 4 votes, 10 votes.
03:05They have cut in Haryana's million votes.
03:08Who did they cut?
03:10The people who voted in the Congress party.
03:21I saw Gaurav Savant, my colleague, our senior managing editor on top of a rat where Amit Shah was holding a roadshow through Purnia.
03:28And we'll also bring in our Bureau Chief Rohit Singh, who knows a thing or two more than Gaurav and I collectively when it comes down to Bihar.
03:36And try and get an award on what both camps are thinking, Rohit.
03:39Let me pull in Gaurav first.
03:40Gaurav, you ended up speaking to the Home Minister who's campaigning in Simanchal Purnia.
03:45He's staying overnight here.
03:47All focus now on Simanchal.
03:48What did he tell you?
03:50Look, this belt is extremely crucial.
03:52The Home Minister looked very confident.
03:54He sounded very confident.
03:55And his claim is this is unprecedented.
03:58You know, when I put that question to him, anytime if the voting percentage is more than 60%, it means Parivartan, Padlav.
04:06He said, don't worry about that arithmetic.
04:08This time, the arithmetic is very strongly in favor of the NDA.
04:14Then I put a question to him whether if NDA comes to par with these numbers.
04:19You know, I said, are you still making 160 that you promised Achthak, that you told Achthak you are?
04:23He says, yes and more.
04:25I said, will Nitish Kumar still be Chief Minister?
04:27And he said, don't let, don't create confusion on that issue.
04:31The Ateep Pichra, the EBC, others, everyone solid together according to him.
04:37Numbers are in his favor.
04:39But the challenge in Simanchal is huge.
04:41Don't create any confusion on Nitish Kumar.
04:43Did he say he'll be CF?
04:45He said, don't create confusion.
04:47You are trying to create confusion on that issue.
04:49He didn't say that he'll be CF, but he said it.
04:51You know, and I specifically asked him that question.
04:54And he said, you are trying, you know, you and Achthak are trying to create this confusion in the minds.
04:59But he still didn't say it.
05:00The EBCs are very clear that they stand together on this.
05:05All right.
05:06Okay, so Gaurav Samad with that exclusive interview.
05:08I want to quickly bring in Rohit Singh into this conversation.
05:10Rohit, as Gaurav pointed out with Amit Shah, the NDA is very, very clear that they have it in the bag.
05:17What are you picking up on ground?
05:18How has the Mahagat Bandhan done vis-a-vis the NDA?
05:26Well, see, Priti, as far as the first phase is concerned, the Mahagat Bandhan has done well in certain pockets.
05:33Like if I can tell you, like Chhapra, Saran, Begu Sarai, Munger, these are the pockets where what we are learning is that the Mahagat Bandhan has done well and it could not be, it can be said that not very good news coming for the NDA.
05:52But apart from these regions, the Mithilanchal region, the Kosi region, all these places, it's good news for the NDA.
06:00So it's like a mixed bag at this point of time.
06:03Really, nobody can say that who is winning, who is losing.
06:07It's a tough contest this time around.
06:09But you see, both sides are claiming that it's already advantage to them in the first phase.
06:16So now all eyes set on the second phase and second phase why it's more crucial because it has more number of seats going for polls, 122.
06:24And the most importantly, the Simanchal region where you have the Muslim domination, the Muslim voters, more than 40% in each and every four districts there.
06:33So which side will the Muslim voters vote and 24 seats are at stake. OVSI is campaigning there for the last fortnight or so.
06:40So it is really very difficult for the RJD also because OVSI is all set to dent the RJD as it had done in 2020.
06:49So Tejasvi or the other was also campaigning hard in Simanchal. So the second phase holds the key to what is going to happen on 14th November.
06:59Right. Right. One quick question before I let you go.
07:04The bumper voter turnout, how much does it have to do with the sheer fact that because of SIR, 45 lakhs vote are lesser. So automatically the percentage will go up.
07:18Well, see the different narratives are floating as far as the voter turnout is concerned. The voter turnout has increased to almost 65%.
07:27So some say that since 65 lakhs voters' names were deleted, that is why the percentage has gone up.
07:33But others feel that there could be a change which is possibly in the pipeline because of which the voters have come out in large numbers.
07:42Maybe they want a badlav in Bihar. And there is a certain section also who believe that they want to retain the present dispensation in Bihar.
07:51And that is why they have come out in large numbers, especially women to retain Nitish Kumar and the NDA government.
07:58So various theories are floating at this point of time. Back to you.
08:06So which theory is going to be the one which is correct?
08:09Well, I guess we'll have to just about wait a little bit longer when that last vote is counted come the 14th of November.
08:15With that, viewers, it's a wrap. Thank you for joining us.
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