Tulane vs. Ole Miss College Football Playoff Preview

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00:00Joe, we got Tulane Ole Miss today, 3.30 p.m.

00:03This one's going to be an interesting one because, again, they played already.

00:06The expectations, SEC going up against a group of five teams,

00:08you should be able to hammer them.

00:09Yes, we get that.

00:10But these numbers, Joe, aren't changing a lot.

00:12Like, we talk about the opening number, 16 and a half.

00:15Blowout city, people, not close.

00:17Well, Joe, why are we at 16 and a half at most outlets again today?

00:19Yeah, again, I believe this is where Lane Kiffin,

00:23and I know Coach broke it down, but the walkthrough, meaning, you know,

00:28this is Golding's first go-round, right?

00:30Yeah.

00:31So, again, the preparation isn't going to be – they're creatures of habit, right?

00:3611, 12 weeks after you knocked off the egg bowl in the missed state,

00:40you have two weeks of basically downtime.

00:43It could be slightly different, and they're creatures of habit.

00:47And I'm not suggesting they lose the game outright.

00:49What I'm just saying is you might not get that as much dominant effort

00:53as you had the attention to detail that Lane Kiffin had.

00:57Maybe Pete Golding does things a little bit differently.

01:00Charlie Weiss might do things slightly differently than Lane Kiffin,

01:04and I think that's where the era, we talk about the outlier, you know, plus-minus.

01:10The plus-minus might be seven points without Lane Kiffin there.

01:13No, no doubt about it.

01:14Let's take a look at the quarterback position here in this game, Joe.

01:16You take a look at Chambliss, who's been really, really good for Ole Miss.

01:20He's at 286 and a half, and then you take a look at Retzloff at 185 and a half.

01:24The passing props for touchdowns, Joe, two and a half for Chambliss at plus-154,

01:29and Retzloff at minus-250, just to throw one of those.

01:32But there you go.

01:34Ritzloff, baby.

01:35Look, get excited, ESPN.

01:37I think Retzloff at 186 has to get there.

01:40Or 186 and a half.

01:42Yeah.

01:42The reason why I say that, again, I believe Tulane's going to run the football,

01:47but the ability to work off a play-action.

01:49Again, Chambliss, if you're betting Tulane, I'm smashing under 280 just because, again,

01:56if he gets through the 280, they're not covering the 17 and a half.

01:59They're not covering the – they're going to get run out of the gym just the way they did a 45-10.

02:04So if you want to take Tulane, you take the rushing attack.

02:07You hope that Retzloff can give you 200-plus with the play-action passing attack,

02:11and then you're there.

02:12Again, it's tougher, but, again, I would smash under Chambliss if you're back in Tulane.

02:18If you're taking Ole Miss and laying it, Chambliss should be able to get to 350.

02:21Which, if we take a look at the rushing props, again, a lot of correlations there

02:24because we do have a mismatch.

02:25Like, we just talked about that Miami Hurricanes-Texas A&M game.

02:27Two really good football teams.

02:29You expect a clean one where you don't have better athletes on one side

02:32comparable to what you're seeing in some of these other games today.

02:35Lacey, Joe, 119 and a half is his rushing prop.

02:38Chambliss, 36 and a half yards.

02:41I mean, 119 in a playoff game.

02:47I mean, he's gotten there.

02:50He's one of the SEC's most explosive.

02:51Joe, let me ask you a better question on this one here.

02:53Would you rather take K'Juan Lacey's 119 and a half

02:57or his longest rush of 24 and a half?

03:00I would take a shot with the longest rush.

03:01Because, again, we talk about correlated markets.

03:04It really is correlated.

03:05He's not going to have 11 carries of nine yards.

03:07I always worry, too, when it's that high.

03:09Yeah.

03:10Injury.

03:10Like, I'm not suggesting he gets hurt, but you're always exposing yourself.

03:14He's got to get to 121 or 120 just to get to win that bet.

03:18He could have 86 yards in the first half.

03:21They could be up 35 and pull him.

03:23I like Tulane.

03:24I would only look to the Tulane side.

03:27I do like Chambliss' rush yards.

03:28Again, 36 and a half, that's one broken run.

03:31I understand the sack perspective, but you're talking Chambliss.

03:35You're talking Marcel Reed, some of the most athletic quarterbacks in the SEC.

03:39If he's on, that could be one broken play, and he breaks it.

03:43You know, I would take a shot with Chambliss over Lacey with the yards.

03:47Yeah, by the way, Chambliss is at that 36 and a half, Joe.

03:50Chambliss' longest run is 15 and a half.

03:52Like, I actually like both of those guys.

03:53Like, I don't look at this game today with A&M and Miami.

03:56I want to take long shots here.

03:57Like, okay, running back's going to run for 20-plus yards in a game.

04:00But what I look for, I do have an advantage where you know they're going to be running

04:03and they have better athletes here.

04:04The chance for them to bust off like a 50-yard touchdown run is legitimate

04:08at both quarterback and running back.

04:09It is, and we talk about the flip side.

04:11What about Retzloff?

04:12He's run.

04:12He averages well over five yards per carry.

04:15He does have over 600 rushing yards for Tulane.

04:18And we talk about Ole Miss entering the first round of the playoffs.

04:22In all of the playoffs, worst rushing defense in the 12 teams.

04:27So, again, if you're going to get a shot, take a shot.

04:29Maybe Retzloff rush yards and over longest rush for the Tulane quarterback.

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