Snow and ice the day after Christmas

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno explains how an incoming cold air mass will set the stage for snow and ice across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Transcript

00:00boy do we have a lot to talk about on the feed today we're talking about the warmest Christmas

00:11on record not for everybody but certainly in the southern plains and then boy do we have a tricky

00:17forecast on Friday remember I was telling you I'm very skeptical about how far north this warmth is

00:24getting near the lakes in the northeast and I think there's an arctic injection coming in to New

00:31England and maybe down to New York City a very cold air mass as we get in to Christmas night in the

00:38Christmas morning and that sets us up I think for a snow and ice event in parts of the mid-Atlantic and

00:43northeast and it could be all snow in New York City this is going to be real tricky forecast but first

00:48I do want to take you out to this I want to show you this this is Christmas Eve and uh and let me

00:56show you the temperatures here so this is Christmas Eve you can see where we are here's your warmer air

01:03you're still dealing with colder air near the lakes and into the northeast this is Christmas day here

01:11comes the warmth right in here and you can see it in here uh now listen I think there's a resistance

01:17zone here uh near the lakes um and into the northeast this is not going to be a Christmas blowtorch

01:24this far north certainly will be in parts of the midwest and the plain states no doubt about it

01:30but just want to let you know for you know much much of the country here this is going to be a very

01:36warm I want to show you this these are the um these these are more ensembles but I want to show you

01:43this is uh Christmas day by the way where you see this red this is exceptional warmth so you've got

01:49exceptional warmth in here notice where you don't have it near the lakes and into the northeast that's

01:56been my contention that it wouldn't get that far north it's not going to but I'll tell you what look

02:00at these areas in here some of these spots will have the warmest Christmas on record now I want to

02:06talk about Friday because Friday is going to be a very very tricky forecast some of the modeling I

02:13think on Friday had a blowtorch warm Friday in the northeast that's not going to happen

02:17um let me show you why um I want to show you the European first now this is Wednesday so this is

02:25Christmas Eve you've got this piece of energy in here you see this this is near Hudson Bay watch where

02:31this goes comes right into the northeast you see I would dig south right across New England this is

02:38Christmas afternoon Christmas evening it's offshore look what the surface panel looks like here this

02:44Christmas Eve look at this big high this is why Chicago Christmas Day is not going to be all that

02:50warm it's not going to be hard to cold but I you've got this 1032 high with the wind coming in out of

02:56east northeast that is not necessarily a warm flow for Chicago your warmth is down in here but look at

03:03that high coming south and east watch it as we get into Thursday evening and then Friday morning look at

03:09that you've got a 1032 high here in Quebec and you've got colder air in the low levels coming south

03:18and let me tell you something about this cold air mass the models always under do this in the northeast

03:24this cold air will be deeper and stronger than what you think now that's the European

03:28GFS looks very similar look at the high building down there it is Thursday afternoon watch it come

03:35into Friday there it is Friday morning there it is look at that high 1035 and you see how you have

03:41these isobars kinking this is telling you that cold air is going all the way down east of the

03:48Appalachians they we call it cold air damming you can even see it on the temperature profile here let me go

03:53back to it on Friday morning here right here this is Friday morning look at that cold air and you

04:01start seeing pinks all the way up in the northern New England this is a cold air mass so think about

04:08what's going on let me go back to my modeling here at the surface you've got high pressure in here

04:14funneling all this cold air now notice what's going on here this is energy right coming out of our big

04:22system in California that's going to produce flooding rain there's going to be major problems

04:26in California here in the next couple of days let me go back to the upper air so what's happening is

04:30let me show you the European model here's the European model what it's doing is it's taking this piece

04:36of energy out ahead of your main storm and running it east northeast now that's going to attack the cold

04:43air on Friday the European has the energy way up here now that's important because on the southern

04:51side of this you'll start getting warming a lot that would change any mixed precipitation like snow and

04:59sleet over to rain the farther north this goes the GFS though is farther south that has the energy way down

05:08here let me show right down here so the European has that energy here the GFS has it here that's a big

05:15difference so when you look at the surface map for Friday this is the European here it comes now listen

05:20now this is European here it comes look at the pink across southwestern parts of Pennsylvania

05:27in the New York City a little snow now watch Europeans suggest this is all snow for New York City

05:34not sure about that yet but I certainly think that there's snow and ice coming to New York City look

05:41at the GFS because it's farther south this suggests it is all snow across most of Pennsylvania

05:52Philadelphia and New York City it may be too far off to your south so we've got a problem on Friday now

06:02you get the Boston in New England you may be too deep in the cold air that the precip doesn't get

06:08there but just to show you what this look like I'm going to show you some model soundings here

06:13this is out of New York City now what I want to concentrate is this this is the zero line 32 degree

06:20line if you're to the left of this that means you're you're all snow now watch New York City as I show you

06:29this this is on Friday here comes the precipitation Friday evening there it is look at this sounding

06:38this is European here's your 32 degree line this is all snow even the GFS also showing all snow we

06:48have some problems along the I-95 corridor on Friday and parts of the New Atlantic for snow and ice and

06:54we're going to keep you updated all week on the feed

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended