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00:00In February 2022, Russia was shaken by a major economic shock.
00:05Our goal is to bring the Russian economy to its knees.
00:09International sanctions, the withdrawal of hundreds of Western companies
00:13and the fall of the ruble, an explosive cocktail that has pushed Western authorities and media
00:17to then announce its imminent collapse.
00:20Three years later, or almost, the rhetoric has changed.
00:23Most European officials are expressing strong vigilance towards Russia.
00:27They consider it a major threat to Europe
00:30and warnings are growing about the possibility of a direct attack in the coming years.
00:34But how could a country on its knees simultaneously make Europe and NATO tremble?
00:38I'm sure that, like me, you've asked yourself the same question.
00:40And answering it is not as obvious as it seems.
00:43Access to certain primary Russian sources is limited in Europe.
00:46officially for reasons of combating disinformation.
00:49In practice, this makes research and analysis more difficult, but not impossible.
00:53To prepare this video, I focused on the reliable data available, because there is some.
00:57Major trends in inflation, the stock market, interest rates, and consumption.
01:01And I'm going to put an end to the suspense right now.
01:02No, the Russian economy is not on its knees.
01:04But what is true is that she suffered from the sanctions,
01:06that she is going through intense stress and that she does not look like she did three years ago.
01:10I am not going to judge the geopolitical situation here.
01:12I will focus on the Russian economy and its specific characteristics.
01:15its strengths and weaknesses in a context of war.
01:18I'm going to show you how she manages to resist international pressure.
01:21and what awaits him over the next five years.
01:22Verifiable and factual information.
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02:21The sanctions that have been imposed on Russia since 2022
02:32have had at least as much effect on it as on the European Union.
02:36Remember, the asset freeze,
02:37the exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT system,
02:40progressive embargoes on oil and gas,
02:42restrictions on the sale of strategic products or technologies
02:45and the withdrawal of hundreds of Western companies,
02:48measures that primarily concerned the energy and financial sectors.
02:52They caused the collapse of the ruble
02:53and a major earthquake in the markets.
02:56On the ground, inflation has skyrocketed.
02:57For example, it exceeded 17% in some months of 2022.
03:00to finish at 11.9%.
03:02Since then, it has stabilized between 8 and 10%.
03:05but she remains very capricious.
03:07To address the price frenzy and pressure on the ruble,
03:09The Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate
03:11to some of the highest levels in recent decades.
03:13It reached 21% in the fall of 2024.
03:15Since then, it has experienced 4 successive declines.
03:18but the Russians are still borrowing at 16.5%.
03:21Understanding its economic mechanisms,
03:22This is crucial to protect your savings and seize opportunities.
03:25That's why 45,000 of you
03:27They already receive our free newsletter every Tuesday.
03:30It analyzes the markets,
03:31we analyze an action in detail
03:32and we explain to you how world news
03:34has a tangible impact on your investments.
03:36Joining the community is easy and free.
03:39I'll put the link in the description.
03:41On the growth side, after a sharp drop in revenue in 2022,
03:43We expect only 1.8% for 2025 compared to 3.8% in 2024.
03:49A figure that is decreasing, but one that still makes France dream.
03:51Finally, the Russian stock market, represented by the Moex Russia Index,
03:55gave its investors a real scare.
03:57with a historic crash,
03:59a 53% drop that wiped out the equivalent of 50 profits
04:02between November 2021 and January 2022.
04:05After this sharp drop, the market recovered.
04:07In 2024, the index rebounded by around 76%
04:10from its lowest level, a trend that is reversing again
04:13Since the beginning of the year, approximately -7%.
04:15A real roller coaster.
04:17But Russia did not collapse.
04:18It did not register a 10% decline in its GDP.
04:21Its public deficit did not exceed 10% of GDP.
04:24She did not witness the mass exodus of her citizens.
04:26And for the moment, she still hasn't lost the war.
04:29Let's see how she goes about organizing her resistance.
04:31First, the structure of its economy itself is very resilient.
04:34For decades, Russia has based its growth on two pillars,
04:37domestic finance and energy.
04:38On one hand, its major banks dominate the domestic market.
04:41On the other hand, its oil and gas champions feed into the state budget.
04:45The first Russian champion was Sberbank.
04:47Comparable to BNP Paribas in France or Morgan Stanley in the United States,
04:50It is the largest bank in the country, a national symbol.
04:53It concentrates the bulk of deposits and loans,
04:55supports public companies
04:56and serves as an instrument of stability for the Russian government.
04:59Alongside it, Rosneft and Lukoil dominate the oil sector.
05:02Rosneft, often compared to Total Energy,
05:04controls a considerable share of national production.
05:07Lukoil, for its part, represents the power of the Russian private sector in black gold.
05:11In the gas sector, there are two giants: Gazprom and Novatec.
05:13Gazprom remains one of the world's largest producers,
05:16key player in the global energy market
05:17and formerly Europe's main supplier.
05:20Novatec, more agile and focused on liquefied natural gas,
05:24now competes with groups like Equinor and ExxonMobil.
05:27You will notice that the Russian economy relies almost entirely
05:29on its banking and fossil fuel sectors.
05:31A strength when you're sitting on so many natural resources.
05:34but also a weakness that perpetuates a structural dependency.
05:37The country derives most of its foreign exchange earnings from energy and raw materials.
05:40which makes it both rich and vulnerable to global fluctuations.
05:43Russia holds some of the largest reserves of natural resources on the planet.
05:47Despite all the sanctions,
05:48it is the world's leading exporter of natural gas
05:50and the second largest exporter of crude oil.
05:52Its subsoil is rich in minerals,
05:54of coal, uranium, nickel,
05:56palladium or titanium,
05:58materials essential to global industry.
05:59In addition to this, there are the enormous forests of Siberia,
06:02true economic as well as ecological engines
06:04and an abundance of farmland.
06:06Exploited by a resilient population,
06:08hardened by survival skills and discipline,
06:10These resources constitute Russia's main source of resilience.
06:13Even when excluded from the main international exchange networks,
06:16they ensure a constant flow of foreign currency to the country
06:18and a lasting geoeconomic influence,
06:20which partly explains how, despite the shock,
06:23She has managed to regain a certain stability.
06:25When its European markets closed,
06:26Russia has turned its gaze eastward.
06:29and since 2022,
06:30Its trade relations with the rest of the world have changed.
06:33China, India, Turkey, and Kazakhstan
06:35have taken the place of their European partners.
06:38Beijing is now Moscow's largest customer and supplier.
06:41Energy flows have been redirected towards Asia
06:43via strategic oil and gas pipelines
06:45like Power of Siberia,
06:47the symbol of this new economic map.
06:49But Russia did not simply change buyers,
06:51She also changed her tool.
06:52Deprived of SWIFT,
06:53She developed her own exchange or payment systems,
06:55MIR for household expenses
06:57and SPFS for international banking transactions.
07:01These systems have not completely replaced Visa or Mastercard,
07:04but they allowed the country to continue functioning.
07:06in particular exchanges with non-Western partners.
07:09To overcome these obstacles, Russia had to transform itself,
07:11She had to innovate.
07:12and domestically, it has shifted into a war economy.
07:15A growing share of the budget is allocated to defense.
07:17to logistics and infrastructure which are deemed vital.
07:20The annual cost of the war for Russia is around $100 to $130 billion.
07:24It has been increasing sharply since 2022.
07:26The economic impact of the war is very heavy,
07:28with a notable recession in 2022,
07:30But the economy is holding up thanks to the restructuring of public spending.
07:33to external energy support and to the money printed by the Russian central bank.
07:37The war also generates significant revenue through energy exports.
07:41which finance a portion of the Russian military and budgetary costs.
07:44Yes, the country continues to finance its military operations despite the sanctions.
07:47The arms industries are operating at full capacity.
07:49and the state provides massive support to local businesses
07:52to replace the lost imports.
07:54This import substitution policy, initiated in 2014
07:57The conflict surrounding Crimea has accelerated since 2022.
08:01As a result, Russia now manufactures more consumer goods than before.
08:04even if the quality remains uneven and the technological offering remains limited.
08:07The job market has not collapsed either.
08:09Official unemployment remains around 3%, a historically low level.
08:13but part of the population has been absorbed by the military sector
08:15or defense-related industries, while other jobs
08:18have simply disappeared from the statistics, due to a lack of companies yet to be declared.
08:21Wages are rising in strategic sectors.
08:24But high inflation is eroding household purchasing power.
08:27already weakened by restricted imports.
08:29The ruble, on the other hand, has done a remarkable loop.
08:31It collapsed in 2022, along with GDP.
08:33Then it recovered thanks to strict controls,
08:36such as the mandatory conversion of currencies derived from exports,
08:39the limitation of capital transfers and very high key interest rates.
08:4221%, that's enough to attract investors.
08:46The Bank of Russia played a central role when it raised its rate.
08:48It helped to avoid an inflationary spiral.
08:50like the one Germany experienced in 1929.
08:53The sharp monetary tightening has slowed consumption.
08:55but it helped to stabilize the currency
08:57and to restore confidence within the country.
08:59However, the flaws remain.
09:01The Russian economy remains trapped by its energy model.
09:04As long as oil and gas finance the bulk of the budget,
09:06It will depend on global prices and foreign markets.
09:08Mostly Indians and Chinese.
09:10The country also suffers from a chronic technological deficit,
09:13accentuated by the departure of many engineers and managers to work abroad.
09:16The infrastructure is aging.
09:18Component imports remain constrained
09:20and certain key industries,
09:21such as the automotive or civil aviation industries,
09:23struggle to keep up.
09:24Russia has therefore chosen resilience through coercion.
09:27It adapts, it folds back
09:28and compensates for its weaknesses with new partners
09:30who share with her an anti-Western vision,
09:33rather clear-cut,
09:34And that's how she moves forward.
09:35For now, resilience comes at a cost
09:36which will continue to increase as long as the war lasts.
09:39But if it stopped tomorrow,
09:41The Russian economy would not emerge from this ruined,
09:43nor triumphant.
09:43She would emerge transformed.
09:45In a post-war scenario,
09:47The whole country would benefit from a genuine peace dividend.
09:49Military spending could be partially redirected.
09:52towards reconstruction,
09:53industrial modernization
09:54and civilian technology.
09:55A gradual lifting of sanctions
09:57would reopen access to foreign capital
09:58and Western technologies,
10:00particularly in the aeronautics sector,
10:02semiconductors
10:03and pharmaceutical research.
10:04The ruble would stabilize permanently,
10:06interest rates would fall
10:08and credit would become accessible again
10:09for businesses and households,
10:11without which a revival of the domestic market would then follow.
10:13It's hard to imagine that his first objective
10:15would then mean going back to war.
10:16this time against Europe.
10:18But beware!
10:18Russia would not return to the way it was before 2022.
10:21She learned to function in isolation.
10:23to rely on herself.
10:24It has forged new economic links outside of Europe,
10:26even without war.
10:27It would continue its pivot towards Asia,
10:29where energy markets
10:30are now more welcoming and less politicized.
10:32Moscow will likely want to consolidate
10:34this autonomy acquired through constraint,
10:36by prioritizing partnerships with China,
10:38India, Iran, or African countries.
10:40In the opposite scenario,
10:41a protracted war
10:42The Russian economy would remain under constant strain.
10:45Industrial mobilization
10:46will continue to artificially support growth,
10:48but at the expense of innovation
10:49and productivity, as we are now.
10:51The federal budget,
10:52already dominated by military spending,
10:53will sink into a cycle of internal debt
10:55and household consumption will fall even further.
10:58The country could then experience
10:59a form of prolonged stagnation,
11:00a balance between political stability,
11:02economic survival
11:03and the gradual impoverishment of the population.
11:05And so the medium-term forecasts are cautious.
11:08The IMF is counting on Russian growth
11:09around 1 to 2% per year until 2030,
11:12compared to more than 3% before the war.
11:14The World Bank also anticipates
11:15a continued demographic contraction
11:17nearly 10 million fewer assets by 2050,
11:19which will reduce production potential.
11:21In addition to these trends, there are structural challenges,
11:23aging of the population,
11:25brain drain,
11:26technological isolation
11:27and persistent energy dependence.
11:28And yet, despite everything, Russia resists.
11:31And that's because she's full of energy.
11:33in the literal, or rather dirty, sense.
11:35More than any military adversary,
11:37the biggest threat that ultimately looms
11:38about this immense country,
11:40more than sanctions,
11:40And as with any oil and gas power,
11:43This is the energy transition.
11:45So, in your opinion,
11:46Russian tanks on the Champs-Elysées,
11:47When is it due?
11:48I look forward to hearing your opinion.
11:49If you have noticed an error,
11:51Please feel free to let me know.
11:52But before leaving,
11:53Don't forget to try Fundora,
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11:56in the world's best private equity funds.
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11:59to register today.
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