- 2 days ago
A 2026 outlook discussion with Prof James Chin, Adjunct Professor at Monash University Malaysia, on Malaysia’s political economy trajectory covering political stability, policy reform momentum, investor confidence, and what it could mean for growth, cost of living, and national competitiveness.
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00:00Welcome to The Economy, I'm your host, Ibrahim Sani.
00:10Happy New Year, Merry Christmas, if I didn't get you in the last one.
00:14In the studio with me is Professor James Chin, a good friend of mine and also a good friend to the show.
00:20He is, of course, the adjunct professor at the Monash University Malaysia as well as a senior researcher at the University of Tunku Abdul Rahman.
00:26Thank you, James, for coming over on this very auspicious day.
00:29It's 2026, we've had a very colourful 2025.
00:33One would argue that we were out to go about our business on reforming the economy, perhaps even reforming the political situation.
00:43But 2025 saw a lot of dramatic moments in politics, anywhere from Sabah all the way to now, currently Perles,
00:52where we might see the by-elections taking shape and even Pitt bersatu against PAS for the first time ever.
00:59Maybe, you know, people can have a very short memory.
01:04If we were to rewind back how 2024 ended, before we jump into how 2025 transpired,
01:12and finally we can perhaps close off on how you would think 2026 would be.
01:17Can you remind us or refresh us what 2024 was all about?
01:20Sure.
01:22So I think the starting point to understand Malaysia is that in Malaysia there's very, what do you call it, almost you can say there's no line between politics and economics.
01:34So politics and economics in Malaysia has always been intertwined.
01:37So when you want to look at what happened in Malaysia for the past year, you really have to ask yourself what were the key political events and how this is linked with the economy.
01:48So I've actually created a very short list of some of the key highlights of the economy.
01:53I don't think you can run away from the petrol rationalisation.
01:58That was huge.
02:00The reason why that was a huge thing, because I think a lot of people in the international arena were waiting for that to happen.
02:09People understand that the current system they had back in 2024 was unsustainable.
02:15In other words, if you give petrol rationalisation or subsidy, it is not a problem per se, especially if you go to targeted groups.
02:24But our previous system was that every Tom, Dick and Harry across the board got the subsidy.
02:30And the other huge problem we had, which is not widely reported, was that there was lots of smuggling.
02:36Because petrol was so cheap, people were actually smuggling Malaysian petrol to be sold overseas, which is unheard of.
02:43But I think the rationalisation thing has been quite good.
02:47I think although there were some seeding problems, I think by and large those seeding problems have gone away.
02:53Now it's fairly straightforward.
02:55If you're eligible, you just show your identity card at the petrol kiosk and you get a subsidy.
03:01So I think the international community, commercial community were very, very impressed that Anwar has finally did it.
03:07I think the other thing that was much more important to workers in Malaysia was, of course, the adoption of the minimum wage from $1,500 to $1,700.
03:16I think that was really, really important because it sent a signal out that for the employees, they really have to think seriously about upgrading the productivity and the skills of the workers.
03:28For the workers, it doesn't mean that much because an extra $200 ringgit in your pocket is not going to make that much of a difference.
03:35Because the cost of living, as you know, has really gone up.
03:38The other big thing last year or this year is really the SST.
03:43That has done, well, basically I think the government has done some reforms which I think is needed.
03:50But in some ways, it's quite surprising for me anyway.
03:54The person who's making the right notes is actually UMNO.
03:57They're saying at the end of the day, you need to bring GST back.
04:00Everybody knows, right?
04:01If Madani does more and more reform GST, as in adding more and more items and everything, you will essentially end up with GST light.
04:11So you might as well bring GST back.
04:14But we all know that the word GST is politically toxic.
04:18So he may not be able to bring it back.
04:20Linked with this is, of course, something that everyone is very angry about, the e-invoicing thing.
04:25I think he made a mistake by putting the threshold too low.
04:29I think the way with e-invoicing, if you're trying to make it more efficient, catch the people who, you know, play with the figures,
04:36you really have to go after the big companies.
04:39The small SMEs, I think you just leave them alone.
04:41They've been squeezed really, really badly in the last two or three years.
04:45Just leave them alone.
04:46The other thing which I thought the government did, which was quite interesting, was, of course, the new investment incentive framework.
04:52Not much details have been released.
04:55They haven't actually told us what are the sort of key FDI that is linked to this.
05:01Because the idea of this was that they use a bit of the Malaysian money plus foreign money to go into new areas.
05:07The really, really, you know, cutting edge area.
05:10So Madani has not really, you know, talked about sort of the things they want to do.
05:14But we all know they're really big into what they call new energy.
05:17AI is, of course, very neat in what they call digital economy.
05:23And you can see some signs of which way they're going at the recent ASEAN Summit when they talk about all these things, right?
05:30And I suspect Madani is actually following them.
05:34But by and large, I think the Malaysian economy, for the entire economy, I don't think we're doing too badly.
05:39I think we're on track for about 4.7 to 4.9% growth.
05:44Unemployment is holding really well at 3%.
05:47But of course, if you speak to the economies, they'll tell you that the problem with Malaysia is that the unemployment figures may not be accurate.
05:53Because we have two issues.
05:55One is a lot of people are not reporting.
05:58Secondly, we have a huge chunk of undocumented workers.
06:03In fact, you and I both know, right?
06:04If you and I go to any construction site in KL, you throw a stone.
06:08How should I put it?
06:09You're likely to hit an undocumented construction worker.
06:12So that's a big thing.
06:14So I think, by and large, I think we're in quite good hands.
06:17But of course, there were really a lot of missed opportunities as well.
06:22I think a lot of people thought that this year, Madani will really double down on the things he wants to do with the economy because election is coming up.
06:30Well, I think two things blew up.
06:34One is, of course, I think he didn't expect the huge blowout that occurred when he supported the daughter to be the deputy president.
06:43That meant the loss of two senior ministers.
06:46Because Rafi Zian, they asked me, they left the administration.
06:49And I think he did not really expect such a huge blowback in Sabah.
06:53In Sabah, right, 90% of the seats were won by Sabah-based party.
07:00But to be fair to him, in some ways, Anwar is also a winner in Sabah because all the parties in Sabah, regardless of the winners and losers, all of them were part of the Madani government.
07:09You know, the way the press plays it is that Warisang was opposition in Sabah, trying to take over the government.
07:16People keep forgetting Warisang is part of the unity government in Kuala Lumpur.
07:20So whoever wins in Sabah, right, will support the unity government.
07:25But I think there are still a lot of fundamental changes that needs to be done in Malaysia.
07:31The key areas is, of course, we really need to do something about our education, which I know you're heavily involved in, which is really good.
07:39But the other key area in terms of Malaysia's economy, these two things have been sitting in the too hard basket for many years.
07:48One is, of course, the Bumitra policy.
07:50People keep tweaking on the edges.
07:52That's not going to change anything.
07:53But the really difficult one is competitiveness and productivity.
07:58And despite all the new policies brought in by the government, right, the needle has not changed.
08:04Let's talk about some of the pivots that can come from your opening salvo.
08:08One of them is, of course, the status of the economy.
08:11Yes, we acknowledge that GDP growth is middling or, I would say, moderating at about 4.5% to 4.7%.
08:20We're looking at the ringgit growth quite strong.
08:24In fact, I'm one of those folks that are betting on ringgits stronger than 4.0% and many more.
08:34Inflation is also holding steady at 1.4% based on the last number.
08:39And on average, it would be about 1.3%.
08:42But one thing that I was looking out for in your opening salvo was the term cost of living.
08:49That perhaps has not yet been addressed or is currently being addressed, but we're not seeing the impact yet.
08:54We're also seeing that while we're managing the petrol subsidy, there's the whole notion of the 40% of Sabah royalty that we need to figure out the formula.
09:06There's also Sarawak and its quarrel between Petros and Petronas and many more.
09:11Do you feel that these kind of carry forward issues are going to perhaps translate into how the country moves forward for next year?
09:21And even how do you think the political landscape is going to tie itself up with the economic landscape as well?
09:28You can't run away from politics now because election is so close.
09:32So the bottom line is that the recent cabinet reshuffle, you have to assume that Anwar is thinking about the next election,
09:39which is basically due in two years' time.
09:42So what are the sort of things linked to the economy in terms of the politics?
09:46With election coming, a lot of the things which they deem to be very sensitive,
09:51they'll push it away and say we have to hold it off until after the elections.
09:55But I think in terms of the election, there's certain areas that Anwar better do something very quickly.
10:01One is the green wave challenge.
10:03The way to understand the green wave challenge is that it's not so much that PAS is pushing,
10:08it is more the fact that PAS has traditionally locked up in the four northern Malaya states.
10:13So if you look at Malaya now, right, PAS has reached half, broken out of the four northern states,
10:18and now basically at Selangor and Agresi Milang.
10:21If PAS wings in the next election push further down, all the way down to Melaka and Johor, right,
10:26then PAS will have the biggest block after the next general election,
10:30which means they are in a position to call Sabah and Serah and say,
10:33do you want to support me in forming a new government?
10:36If Anwar does badly, it means that he'll be ending up with between 50 or 60 seats,
10:42and PAS will be 80 to 90 or maybe even 100.
10:45Okay, so that's the first challenge.
10:46The second one, as you mentioned, is MS63.
10:49Not only the 40%, but the sort of things being asked for by Sabah and Serah.
10:53For example, 35% of the seats in parliament.
10:56That will fundamentally change the federal-state relationship.
11:00There's also other things in the MS63,
11:03like they want more of the decentralisation powers going back to Sarawak.
11:08Especially the big thing now is education.
11:10Health, there have been some negotiation, but I was made to understand,
11:13health is a lot, lot harder.
11:15Not only we're talking about big money health, but things like specialists, all those things.
11:19Those things are really difficult to solve.
11:21It's not education.
11:22Education is a lot easier, and it's whether Madani wants to give up control.
11:26But I think there's three things that will have a big impact on the elections coming out.
11:32One is hate speech and social media platforms.
11:35Whether you like it or not, I think the social media platform,
11:39whoever controls WhatsApp and the short videos,
11:42things like TikTok, Reels, all these things,
11:44whoever controls that narrative is going to be way ahead of everybody else.
11:49We saw this very, very clearly,
11:52where social media actually changed the results of the elections.
11:55These are in recent years.
11:57One was Bombon Marcos in the Philippines.
12:00If you know anything about the Philippines,
12:02you know that his father was a major corruption figure,
12:06and the father stole millions and millions of dollars out of the Philippines.
12:10And yet Bombon Marcos, primarily through Facebook,
12:14managed to win the biggest majority against his opponent.
12:17Okay, so that was done by Facebook.
12:19And recently in Indonesia,
12:21probably won by a substantive majority.
12:25Again, due to AI,
12:27basically making him into a chubby grandfather-like figure,
12:30dancing, rewriting his entire history.
12:34Most people forgot, right,
12:35he was head of the Indonesian Special Forces,
12:38and did a lot of bad things in East Timor
12:40before East Timor became independent.
12:42And in fact, the American banned him from visiting America
12:46because of East Timor,
12:47and yet he won the election.
12:49So next election, I can guarantee you, right,
12:51AI will be used extensively,
12:53especially AI video.
12:55You've already seen some of this,
12:57but the sort of stuff that you're seeing today, right,
12:59is nothing that will appear during the general elections.
13:03And this is where the problem lies,
13:04because a lot of people in Malaysia, right,
13:07can't tell the difference.
13:09Sometimes even I can't tell the difference.
13:11And the thing about social media,
13:13the reason why it's so effective
13:15is because you tend to believe it
13:17because I sent it to you through WhatsApp,
13:19or you belong to the same WhatsApp group
13:21where people share videos.
13:24The thing about the video thing is that
13:25once you unsee it, you can't unsee it.
13:28So once you see it,
13:29it doesn't matter if I send you another WhatsApp
13:31and say, oh, Ibrahim, please annoy you,
13:33that was fake.
13:35You will still remember it.
13:36So that's why social media is going to be
13:39such an important role.
13:40And interestingly enough,
13:42the Malaysian government back down.
13:43You remember a lot of the major platform
13:45refused to register.
13:47And our friend was forced to say
13:49that they'll be automatically registered
13:50on the platforms.
13:52So it means that the social media platforms,
13:54they don't really care what is happening in Malaysia,
13:57partly because Malaysia is a small country,
13:59small revenues base for them.
14:01But also a lot of these companies, right,
14:03people don't realise,
14:03they actually like seeing all these fake videos
14:06floating around.
14:07Yeah, because rage equals attention,
14:10equals engagement.
14:11Yes, but more importantly, right,
14:13countries like Malaysia,
14:15which is quite technologically advanced,
14:16but also many parts of Malaysia,
14:18sort of underdeveloped,
14:19they have a chance to see the effects
14:21of both areas.
14:22In the same community,
14:24with the same political culture,
14:26one in the rural area,
14:27which we might call developing country,
14:29and one like Glen Valley,
14:30which is a first world country.
14:31So, you know,
14:32it provides opportunities for them to study.
14:35The bottom line is that, you know,
14:36if the Malaysian government thinks
14:38that they can control social media
14:40for the elections,
14:41forget it.
14:42Nobody can control it.
14:43So that means candidates
14:44must be a little bit smarter,
14:45a little bit more crafty
14:46in terms of how they message
14:48their own electorates.
14:50No, we're talking about
14:51private companies
14:53hired by the major political parties
14:55to push a certain narrative.
14:57Now, I've seen some of these companies
14:59from West Malaysia operating in Sabah,
15:01a lot of them did it wrong
15:03because you need the local contacts.
15:05So if they want to get it right, right,
15:07they need local experts
15:08to do this sort of thing.
15:10Because a lot of things in Malaysia, right,
15:13there's lots of subtleties involved.
15:15So, for example,
15:16if you bring a foreign expert
15:18doing this sort of, you know,
15:21video about how great
15:22the Madani government is doing,
15:23I'll just give you an example.
15:24you may end up doing a video saying it,
15:27oh, Malaysia has finally caught up
15:29with Singapore in such and such a thing.
15:32But as a local person, right,
15:34you know immediately the context.
15:36Malaysians don't like the success of Singapore.
15:39So you don't mention Singapore
15:41in the first place, right?
15:42But if you're a foreigner,
15:44you know, expert in this sort of
15:45social media stuff, right,
15:47you probably won't do a good job.
15:48So if those political parties
15:50are watching this now,
15:51I would tell them,
15:52please hire local people
15:54if you want your social media platform
15:55to be very successful.
15:57Among all the major political parties,
16:00the one that's doing very badly
16:02is actually PH.
16:03So it's interesting that
16:05on the other side of perikatan, right,
16:06PAS is doing very well on social media.
16:09If you look at some of the videos
16:10they produce for TikTok, right,
16:12they get millions of views,
16:13which is remarkable.
16:14And all those are done by
16:16unpaid professionals
16:18who are supporting PAS.
16:19So it's quite interesting that,
16:20you know,
16:21PAS which you think,
16:22you know,
16:22Islamic party don't like
16:24all this modern stuff,
16:25you know,
16:26they are the trend leaders
16:27instead of in terms of TikTok videos,
16:29which is interesting.
16:31Another two things I think
16:32that Madani has to deal with,
16:34race relations.
16:35I think race relations
16:37between the different major groups
16:39on the Malaya side,
16:40I think relationship has gotten worse
16:42since Madani came in.
16:44And the other big thing
16:45that Madani has to deal with
16:46is the US-Russia,
16:49sorry,
16:49the US-China competition
16:51over Russia and Ukraine.
16:53I think you can't run away from this.
16:55This will have a major impact on Malaysia.
16:57And if he doesn't handle it correctly,
16:59it will blow up.
17:00And you will blow up
17:01in the election as well.
17:02Because we saw, right,
17:03when he was the chairman of ASEAN,
17:06you know,
17:07there was a big,
17:07big ceremony signing
17:09two things that Trump
17:10was very happy about.
17:11One was that
17:12he was the peacemaker
17:13for Cambodia and Thailand,
17:15which blew up already.
17:17Madani was sitting in the middle
17:18as the witness.
17:19And the second thing
17:20that Madani did was that
17:21he signed this sort of
17:22trade framework.
17:24And you know, right,
17:25a lot of Malaysians
17:26are unhappy about it
17:27because they don't understand it.
17:28And some of the Malaysian NGOs
17:30are even talking about
17:31suing Madani
17:32to get to the bottom of this.
17:34Now,
17:35all these things, right,
17:36that time, you know, right,
17:38with the way it works
17:39in society is that
17:40people talk about
17:41brew, brew, brew,
17:42and then election time,
17:43boom!
17:44Yeah, there's a lag effect.
17:46That's right.
17:46So, this US-Malaysia
17:49trade framework,
17:50I can tell you, right,
17:51is a grenade waiting to happen.
17:53Because everyone is looking
17:55for that specific clause
17:56or specific example
17:57where it shows
17:59that the US
18:00is colonizing
18:01Malaysia by telling
18:02Malaysia got to do
18:03this, this, this, this, this.
18:05So far, there's no
18:06smoking Garniat
18:07but people are looking for it.
18:08Let's talk about
18:09the political risk
18:11when it comes to the economy.
18:13Do you feel that
18:14that political risk
18:15is now attached
18:16with some sort of a premium
18:17instead of discounted now?
18:19Do you feel that
18:20investors,
18:21both internationally
18:22and domestically as well
18:23and our own little
18:23business owners here in Malaysia
18:25are looking at this
18:26with serious intent
18:27that they might look at
18:28our economy going strong
18:30for 2025
18:30but for this year in 2026,
18:31there's a lot of hesitation
18:33now, there's a lot of
18:34wait and see.
18:35How do you view
18:36the situation of investors
18:38looking in towards
18:39Malaysia?
18:40So generally,
18:41there's two types of investments.
18:43One is those
18:44who are already here
18:44who want to expand
18:45or do a major expansion.
18:47Those guys don't really
18:49care about
18:49what happens in Putri Jaya.
18:50They do care
18:51but I'm saying that
18:52they care less
18:53than the new investments
18:54coming in.
18:55For the new investments
18:56coming in,
18:57they'll be talking to people
18:58like yourself
18:59and asking
18:59is the government
19:01committed to
19:02rational policy making
19:04process.
19:05Like I said,
19:05the problem in Malaysia
19:06is that you've got
19:07this racial thing,
19:08racial relations
19:09which affects public policy.
19:11So that's the thing
19:11they're looking for.
19:12The secondly is that
19:14Malaysia can overcome
19:16this by going
19:18for big projects
19:19where the sort of
19:21political turbulence
19:22is sort of independent.
19:23So example of that
19:24is that we're building
19:25a lot of data centers
19:27in Johor.
19:28Those sort of investments,
19:29they don't worry
19:31too much about
19:32political turbulence.
19:34What they worry about
19:35is whether they can
19:35supply cheap electricity
19:36and water.
19:38So those things
19:39are unlikely.
19:39But those two
19:40are baked in
19:41into the agreement already.
19:42Yes, but those things
19:43are not likely
19:44to be changed
19:44if a government change.
19:45Yeah.
19:46Right?
19:46So those things
19:47can go ahead.
19:48But the sort of things,
19:49investments,
19:50where the foreign investors
19:52are very worried about,
19:53are things
19:54which deals with things
19:55like consumer product,
19:56all this sort of thing.
19:57A new government
19:58can clamp down.
19:59One of the problems
20:00with Malaysia,
20:01is that we are
20:02a society
20:03where almost everything
20:05a businessman
20:06wants to do
20:06requires a license
20:08or some sort of paperwork.
20:10And this is what
20:11investors don't like.
20:12Because paperwork
20:13can be changed
20:14anytime,
20:14especially at the lower level.
20:16So that's the reason
20:17why they like continuity.
20:19So for those investors,
20:22I think,
20:22if I were them right,
20:24I would tell them,
20:25don't do anything now,
20:26wait until the end of 2026.
20:28Then the picture is clearer
20:29which side is more likely
20:31to win.
20:31But if, let's say,
20:33Perikatan wants to move in
20:35and perhaps even win
20:36the election
20:37in a big way,
20:38isn't it in their interest
20:39to also be investor-friendly
20:41and to stay within
20:42the whole notion
20:43of being political,
20:45being economically driven
20:47rather than ideologically driven?
20:49because at the end of the day,
20:50it's the bread and butter issues
20:52that matter most.
20:53Ideologically,
20:53it's nice to have
20:54but money in the wallet
20:56is much more important.
20:57Yes.
20:58That, again,
20:59is a rational explanation.
21:01But in Malaysia,
21:02a lot of things
21:03are irrational.
21:05So you gave me
21:07a very good question,
21:08a very important question
21:09which is that
21:09on paper,
21:11even if the other side
21:12get in,
21:12they want to be rational
21:13because they want
21:14the economy to grow.
21:15That is not the problem.
21:17The problem is that
21:18if I have a major
21:19multi-billion ringgit
21:20investment in this country,
21:22right,
21:22in almost all cases,
21:24well, in fact,
21:24in all cases,
21:25I will have a local partner
21:27to help me to smooth.
21:28Yeah.
21:29Right?
21:29Yeah.
21:30Change of government
21:31means that that partner
21:32cannot use anymore.
21:36Find you partner lah.
21:37It's not so easy, right?
21:39So this is what I mean
21:40by the risk.
21:42Okay?
21:42So, you know,
21:44the professional advice
21:45most of the things
21:46will be getting
21:47is that, you know,
21:48wait for a little while
21:49because by the end
21:50of 2026,
21:51they have a very clear idea.
21:53So it is not so much
21:54that the new government
21:55is not interested
21:56in growing the economy.
21:57Of course,
21:58they're interested
21:58in growing the economy.
21:59Glen Valley,
22:00all these sort of things.
22:01It's the problem
22:01of the foreign investors
22:02that they have to find
22:03a whole new set of partners
22:05to deal with
22:06the new government.
22:07And they'd rather
22:07save themselves
22:08the trouble
22:09and perhaps...
22:09No, it's not only
22:10save the trouble.
22:11How should I put it?
22:12You know,
22:13this is the sort of thing
22:14that foreign investments,
22:16the big one,
22:17they don't like
22:17because they're used
22:19to getting VIP treatment
22:20from the rest of the region
22:21and everywhere, right?
22:24There's a very famous story
22:25coming out of Vietnam
22:26where a very important VIP
22:28linked to the US administration now.
22:31They managed to get a project,
22:32you know,
22:33get through in two weeks.
22:35The reason why
22:35all the paperwork
22:36was done in two weeks, right?
22:37You can Google this
22:38was because
22:39the son of the figure
22:41linked to the US administration
22:42was coming for a side visit.
22:45So everything
22:45was moved away.
22:47But they're willing
22:48to do that
22:48because they know
22:50this US administration
22:51will not change
22:52for the next three years.
22:53But there was a hot mic
22:53as well
22:54with Prabowo
22:55talking to
22:56President Donald Trump
22:57about wanting to meet
22:58Trump Jr.
22:59Yes, yes.
23:00I mean,
23:00things like this.
23:00because, you know,
23:02the big project,
23:03like I said,
23:03the local partner
23:04is crucial.
23:05He is the one
23:06who smooth everything
23:06out for you.
23:07You bring in the big money,
23:09set up the big operation,
23:10whatever it is.
23:11But it is the local guy.
23:12So the change
23:13in the top
23:15of the political three,
23:16right?
23:16Then whoever
23:17you're dealing with,
23:18usually you can't
23:19use that person
23:20with the new administration.
23:22Let's talk about
23:23the timeline
23:23and the permutations
23:25because we have
23:26the venerable
23:26Mr. Professor James
23:28in the house.
23:29Is it this year,
23:31the general election?
23:32I don't know.
23:34I think anybody
23:35who tried to second guess
23:37what Madani is thinking,
23:39I think it's a very
23:40foolish exercise
23:41because you don't know
23:43all his calculations
23:45because he's got
23:47so many things
23:48to calculate
23:48in the sense
23:49that he not only
23:50had to calculate
23:51the number of seats,
23:52how to divide
23:53among his coalition,
23:55but more importantly,
23:56right,
23:57he has to
23:58calculate
23:59what is the mood
24:00of the
24:01Malay voters
24:04who voted
24:05for the first
24:05or second time
24:06for pass.
24:07This is the target
24:07group that he's after
24:08because this were
24:10the target group
24:10that supported
24:11the green wave.
24:12He's trying to
24:13claw back the green wave.
24:14Everybody knows that.
24:15I mean,
24:16you know,
24:17I think anybody
24:19who tells you
24:19that he doesn't
24:20care about the green wave,
24:21this is a very
24:22silly statement.
24:24He's definitely
24:24going after the green wave.
24:25You can see
24:26a lot of actions
24:26he does,
24:27giving increased funding
24:28to Jack Kim
24:29appointing a more
24:30assertive religious
24:31minister,
24:31all these things.
24:32This is all about
24:33the green wave.
24:33Spending time
24:34in the Middle East,
24:35even though I can tell you,
24:36right,
24:37they don't take him seriously,
24:38it's all about
24:39the green wave.
24:40Now,
24:40in terms of
24:41green wave politics,
24:41right,
24:42he is in a very good
24:43position
24:43to understand
24:45the trend
24:45because people forget
24:47when he started
24:47his political career,
24:48right,
24:49he was part
24:49of the green wave.
24:50Yeah,
24:51of the 1980s.
24:52So,
24:53people keep forgetting
24:54the history.
24:55My beef with him
24:56is not so much
24:57that it's about
24:58the green wave.
24:58My beef with him
24:59was that
25:00when he and
25:01Mahathir,
25:01right,
25:01had a solid
25:02relationship
25:03in the 1980s,
25:04you know,
25:05they launched a
25:05program to be
25:06more Islamic
25:07than past,
25:08right,
25:09that program
25:10fell spectacularly.
25:11They lost the
25:11battle,
25:12right,
25:13so having gone
25:14through that battle
25:14once,
25:15he should know
25:16that whatever
25:16he does,
25:17right,
25:18he cannot beat
25:18the green wave
25:19based on religion
25:20alone.
25:22The real secret
25:22to beating the
25:23green wave
25:24is actually
25:24to provide
25:25people with
25:26a good rice
25:27bowl where
25:28they feel
25:28that they
25:28have a future,
25:29their children
25:30have a future,
25:31things are good,
25:32you know,
25:33what should I say,
25:34they're hopeful
25:35about the future,
25:36you know,
25:36because the green
25:38wave is not
25:38about providing
25:39hopeful for the
25:40future.
25:41The green wave
25:41is essentially
25:42replacing the
25:44current system
25:44we have with
25:45a more Islamic
25:46or purely
25:47Islamic system,
25:48which they say
25:49that will bring
25:50much better
25:50thing than
25:51what we have
25:51now.
25:52That's basically
25:52the green wave.
25:53A lot of
25:54people say
25:54it's about
25:55certain parts
25:58of Islamic
25:58sex,
25:59all these
25:59things.
25:59For me,
26:00it's not
26:01really that
26:01because a lot
26:02of the young
26:02people who
26:02support the
26:03green wave,
26:04I do not
26:04think those
26:05people have
26:05read through
26:05the Quran.
26:07I do not
26:07think those
26:08people understand
26:08religion deeply,
26:10Islamic religion
26:11deeply.
26:11But I truly
26:12believe that
26:13they believe
26:14that more
26:15Islam in
26:16Malaysia or
26:16Islamic type
26:17of country
26:18will bring
26:19a better
26:19future for
26:20them.
26:20Prosperous.
26:21They believe
26:22that that is
26:22the recipe.
26:22That's right.
26:23Because for
26:25them,
26:26the current
26:26system has
26:27failed them.
26:28You see
26:28what I mean?
26:29So they're
26:29willing to do
26:30that.
26:30So the
26:31counter
26:32culture to
26:33this would
26:33be,
26:34this is the
26:35future forward,
26:36this is the
26:36better way of
26:37doing things,
26:38this is how we
26:38ensure bread and
26:39butter issue,
26:40the rice
26:41bull as you
26:41speak,
26:43and do you
26:44believe that the
26:44current administration
26:45is currently
26:46addressing it?
26:46No, the
26:46problem with
26:48Anwar Ibrahim,
26:49he's still
26:49chasing the
26:50green votes,
26:51he's still
26:51thinking that
26:52he can win
26:52over the
26:53green vote
26:54by using
26:55more Islam.
26:56And what I'm
26:57saying is that
26:57that's fine,
26:59but your real
26:59rice bull is
27:00that if the
27:01economy really
27:01grows,
27:02if the
27:03Kelantan
27:03fisherman
27:04sees his
27:05income rising
27:05or the
27:06Kelantanese
27:06farmer sees
27:07income rising
27:08right,
27:09I can tell
27:10you he will
27:10drop past
27:11just like that
27:12because he
27:13wants a
27:13better living
27:14standard for
27:15himself and
27:16his family.
27:17What about
27:18the quarter
27:18of some
27:18partners within
27:19the current
27:20unity government
27:22within BN,
27:23predominantly
27:24UMNO and
27:25DAP?
27:25I mean the
27:26Najib episode
27:28just two weeks
27:29ago showed
27:30the deep
27:31discontent
27:31between these
27:32two partners.
27:33Well my
27:34position has
27:34always been
27:35that this
27:36is all
27:36wayang,
27:37it's not
27:37real and
27:38I'll give a
27:39very simple
27:39explanation why
27:40it's not
27:41real.
27:41Let me
27:42ask you
27:42Ibrahim,
27:43you've been
27:43an observer
27:44of Malaysian
27:45politics for
27:45long years,
27:46where does
27:47DAP stand?
27:51That's not
27:51fair for me
27:52to say but
27:52never mind,
27:53go on.
27:54I'm not going
27:54to do that.
27:56No,
27:57DAP stand in
27:57Chinese,
27:58urban areas.
27:58Oh,
27:58Chinese urban areas.
27:59Okay,
28:00sorry,
28:01I thought you were
28:01asking about
28:02on reformist
28:03issues.
28:04I mean where
28:04does DAP
28:05feel that?
28:05Urban areas,
28:06mixed seats.
28:08Not even
28:08mixed seats,
28:09mostly mostly
28:09Chinese areas.
28:10where does
28:11UMNO's feel
28:12that can
28:13mostly
28:13Malay areas.
28:14Yes,
28:14rural area,
28:15right?
28:16Do DAP
28:16UMNO fight?
28:17Very rare.
28:18Almost unlikely.
28:19I can't remember
28:20one seat that
28:20they go ahead to
28:21it.
28:21So,
28:21when they attack
28:22each other,
28:22who is their
28:23audience?
28:24They're all
28:24supporters.
28:24They're all
28:25supporters.
28:26Because they know
28:27they're not going
28:27to beat each other.
28:28Okay,
28:28I see what you mean.
28:29But it's the
28:30PTR folks that
28:32are in between
28:33the crosshair.
28:34Look,
28:35put it this way,
28:36UMNO,
28:37people keep
28:38forgetting has
28:39been a party
28:40of government
28:41since day
28:43157.
28:44The only time
28:45it has spent
28:46time in the
28:46wilderness was
28:47very short,
28:47two years.
28:48Two years,
28:482018 to
28:492020.
28:50So,
28:51UMNO as a
28:52political machine,
28:53as a political
28:54platform,
28:55right?
28:55It's a platform
28:56built on the
28:57fact that they
28:57are part of
28:58a government,
28:59running the
28:59government,
29:00or being part
29:01of a government.
29:01They cannot
29:02survive outside
29:03the government
29:03ecosystem.
29:04If they do
29:05that,
29:05they're going to
29:06go down
29:06really fast.
29:08DAP,
29:08right,
29:09has been
29:09fighting to
29:10be part of
29:10the government
29:11the last 50
29:11years or 60
29:12years.
29:13They finally
29:13became part
29:14of the
29:14government in
29:142018.
29:15The first
29:16time,
29:16of course,
29:16you can argue
29:17that they
29:18got completely
29:19burned because
29:20they supported
29:20a guy who
29:21is 100
29:21years old
29:22now.
29:23He was
29:23trying to
29:24build UMNO
29:243.0.
29:26DAP was
29:27trying to
29:27build a
29:27new country.
29:29DAP now
29:30have gone
29:30to government.
29:31They
29:31understand,
29:32how should
29:32I put it,
29:33how government
29:34works,
29:35how government
29:35can deliver
29:38for their
29:38own supporters.
29:39Do you
29:40honestly think
29:41that they
29:41want to
29:42get out of
29:42the government?
29:43Look,
29:44the only game
29:44in town
29:45in Malaysia,
29:45right,
29:46nobody takes
29:47you seriously
29:47unless you're
29:48YB.
29:48if you're
29:50not YB
29:50can say
29:50whatever.
29:51People
29:51like me
29:51can say
29:52whatever.
29:52People
29:52just
29:52ignore
29:53because
29:53you're
29:54not
29:54YB.
29:54Secondly,
29:55if you're
29:55YB,
29:56the most
29:56important
29:57thing is
29:57to be
29:58part of
29:58the
29:58ruling
29:58coalition.
29:59Why?
30:00Because
30:00you get
30:00your
30:01millions
30:01in
30:01constituency
30:02funding.
30:04If
30:04you're
30:05kawasan,
30:06somebody
30:06got a
30:06sports
30:06association,
30:07you can
30:08sponsor
30:08the
30:09competition.
30:10That's
30:11why
30:11everybody
30:11wants to
30:12be
30:12part
30:12of
30:12the
30:12government.
30:13You
30:13can
30:13push
30:13JKR
30:14to build
30:15a new
30:15road
30:16fly
30:16over
30:16whatever
30:16it is.
30:17Do you
30:17think
30:18those
30:18are
30:18available
30:18to
30:18opposition?
30:19Of course
30:19not.
30:21So
30:21everything
30:22in
30:22Malaysia,
30:23all the
30:23resources,
30:24everything.
30:24And of
30:25course,
30:25if you're
30:25part of
30:25the
30:26government,
30:26if you're
30:27YB,
30:27of course,
30:28the
30:28perks are
30:28things that
30:29that
30:29much
30:32harder
30:32for the
30:32opposition
30:33to get.
30:33But
30:34my
30:34point
30:34is,
30:35the
30:35only
30:35game
30:36in
30:36town
30:36is to
30:37be
30:37in
30:37government.
30:38So
30:38I'm
30:38saying
30:38that
30:39all
30:39this
30:39talk
30:39about
30:40I'm
30:40not
30:40wanting
30:40to pull
30:41out,
30:41DAP
30:41getting
30:42angry
30:42with
30:43Madani,
30:43all
30:43these
30:43things.
30:44I would
30:45say a
30:45lot of
30:45this is
30:46speaking to
30:46their
30:47own
30:47audience.
30:48When
30:48the chips
30:48are
30:48down,
30:49the
30:49calculation
30:49is
30:50different.
30:50So
30:51I'll
30:51give you
30:51an
30:51example.
30:52If I'm
30:52not
30:53saying
30:53they
30:53want
30:53to
30:53pull
30:54out
30:54the
30:54government,
30:55what
30:55is
30:55the
30:55first
30:55thing
30:56that
30:56Zahid
30:56will
30:56be
30:56thinking
30:56about?
30:57Where
30:57am I
30:58going
30:58to
30:58get
30:58the
30:58money
30:58for
30:58the
30:58elections?
30:59Because
30:59I'm
30:59no
31:10in
31:10rural
31:11areas,
31:11government
31:12machinery
31:12routinely
31:13support the
31:15party in
31:15power.
31:16This is a
31:16fact.
31:17People
31:17can say
31:18it's
31:18unethical,
31:19but this
31:20is a
31:20fact.
31:21They
31:21will
31:21lose
31:22the
31:22government
31:22machinery.
31:23Do you
31:24really
31:24think
31:24he's
31:24willing
31:25to
31:25take
31:25the
31:25risk?
31:26If
31:26he's
31:26willing
31:26to
31:27take
31:27the
31:27risk,
31:27he's
31:29got
31:30a
31:30daddy
31:31somewhere
31:31overseas
31:32who
31:32will
31:32give
31:32him
31:32a
31:32few
31:33billion
31:33dollars
31:33to
31:34fight
31:35the
31:35election.
31:36Other
31:36than
31:37that,
31:37I
31:37think
31:37it's
31:37very
31:37difficult
31:38for
31:38the
31:39DAP
31:39right?
31:40Like I
31:40said,
31:40they've
31:40been
31:40waiting
31:41so
31:41long
31:41to
31:41be
31:41part
31:42of
31:42the
31:42government.
31:42Do you
31:42think
31:43they'll
31:43pull
31:43out
31:43the
31:43government?
31:44Because
31:44even
31:44though
31:45the
31:45Chinese
31:45ground
31:46are
31:46unhappy
31:46with
31:46them,
31:47the
31:47Chinese
31:47ground
31:48still
31:48think
31:48that
31:48having
31:49a
31:49big
31:50voice
31:50in
31:50government
31:51is
31:52quite
31:52important
31:53than
31:53having
31:53no
31:53voice.
31:54The
31:54big
31:55trump
31:55the
31:55DAP
31:56has
31:57with
31:58the
31:58non-Malay
31:58population
31:59is
31:59that
31:59they
32:00always
32:01remind
32:07that
32:08we
32:08are
32:08the
32:08biggest
32:08block.
32:09We
32:09can
32:09still
32:09get
32:09things
32:10done.
32:11It's
32:11just
32:11that
32:11sometimes
32:12we
32:12don't
32:12have
32:12to
32:12shout
32:12about
32:13it.
32:14Final
32:14question,
32:15rather
32:15simple,
32:16straightforward
32:16one.
32:16Are you
32:17more
32:17optimistic
32:17or less
32:18optimistic
32:18about
32:18the
32:18economy
32:19in
32:192026?
32:21Generally,
32:21I'm
32:22always
32:22very
32:22optimistic
32:23about
32:23Malaysia
32:24even
32:24though
32:24a lot
32:24of
32:24people
32:25don't
32:25think
32:25that's
32:25true.
32:26In
32:26terms
32:27of
32:27the
32:27economy
32:27right,
32:28I
32:28think
32:29the
32:30economy
32:30will
32:31just
32:31flock
32:34alone.
32:35You
32:35won't
32:35see
32:35any
32:36major
32:36reform
32:37this
32:37year
32:37because
32:37it's
32:37election
32:38year.
32:38So
32:39that
32:39is
32:39unfortunate.
32:40But
32:40again,
32:41the
32:41long-term
32:41stuff
32:42that I
32:42mentioned,
32:43the
32:43too
32:43hard
32:43basket,
32:44Malaysia
32:45doesn't
32:45deal
32:45with
32:46it,
32:46right?
32:46It
32:46means
32:47that
32:4710
32:47years
32:47from
32:47now,
32:48you
32:48and
32:48I
32:48will
32:48be
32:48sitting
32:48same
32:49year
32:49talking
32:49about
32:49the
32:49same
32:50issues.
32:51Thank
32:51you
32:51very
32:51much,
32:52James.
32:52That
32:52was
32:52Professor
32:53James
32:53Chin,
32:54the
32:54adjunct
33:01part
33:01of
33:01this
33:01show
33:02or
33:02shows
33:02like
33:02this
33:02that
33:03you
33:03want
33:03to
33:03watch
33:03a
33:03little
33:03bit
33:03more
33:04just
33:04head
33:04on
33:04to
33:04astroawani.com
33:06and
33:06find out
33:06more
33:07there.
33:07Until
33:07then,
33:07thanks
33:08very
33:08much
33:08for
33:08watching
33:08and
33:09I
33:09wish
33:09you
33:10a
33:10happy
33:10new
33:10year.
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