Analysis: Japan Responds to New China Export Ban

TaiwanPlus News

After China announced an export ban on dual-use technology to Japan — goods with both civilian and military applications — Tokyo called the move unfair and a "deviation" from international norms. TaiwanPlus spoke to Stephen Nagy from the International Christian University to find out more.

Transcript

00:00Tokyo has denounced a Chinese expert ban on dual-use goods to Japan.

00:08This latest measure, which targets only our country, deviates significantly from international norms,

00:14is absolutely unacceptable and extremely regrettable.

00:17The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,

00:21and our embassy in China have lodged a formal protest of the Chinese side,

00:25strongly objecting to the measure and demanding its withdrawal.

00:28China's Commerce Ministry announced a ban on Tuesday.

00:33Dual-use goods are products or technology with both civilian and military uses,

00:37such as drones, sensors or encryption software.

00:40But Beijing has then specified what items would be banned.

00:44The move comes after months of tensions between China and Japan,

00:48after Japanese Prime Minister Takeuchi Sanae suggested a Chinese attack on Taiwan

00:52could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

00:55For more on Beijing's dual-use export ban,

01:00our reporter Liri Isiano spoke with Professor Stephen Nagy

01:03of the International Christian University in Tokyo.

01:07He's also the Senior Fellow and China Project Lead at the MacDonald Laurier Institute.

01:13Can you briefly describe what these export controls are seeking to achieve

01:16and why China has decided to implement them?

01:18How related are they to what Takeuchi Sanae said in November

01:22about Japan involving itself in a Taiwan crisis?

01:26China sees Japan very much as the leading middle power,

01:31that if it's successful in talking about Taiwan publicly in the way that Takeuchi did,

01:38other middle powers, whether it's Canada or Australia, India,

01:42may also start to talk about Taiwan in much more explicit ways.

01:47And China would like to prevent this.

01:50If they can crush Japan's attempts to talk about Taiwan

01:54and what a Taiwan security issue would mean for Japan,

01:58that they're going to do this to all other countries.

02:00So it's a strong message to all middle powers that it's our side, it's us or them.

02:09Do you think that these export controls are more for the headlines

02:12and for the performance to demonstrate that China is taking this matter very seriously

02:15with regards to Japan?

02:16Or do you think they actually will have significant impacts

02:19on the Japanese economy, industry, businesses in particular, sectors in particular?

02:24Japan is a bit of a canary in the coal mine

02:26in terms of managing the risk associated with China.

02:29It's the most deeply engaged country

02:31and it's experienced most of the economic coercion dating back to the mid-90s.

02:38So its companies have really already shifted

02:40and made some of the adjustments to deal with this kind of economic coercion.

02:45And what we've seen is that companies are now making in China for Chinese,

02:50by Chinese, with Japanese technology.

02:53So if there is some kind of domestic pressure,

02:56it's only going to hurt Chinese consumers.

02:58And then they shifted a lot of their production to Southeast Asia and India

03:01for global export.

03:03And those are seen as more reliable.

03:06We should remember though, and we should watch the trends right now,

03:08that Japanese businesses are leaving China.

03:12If one business leaves, all of them have to leave because they complement each other.

03:16So what we're seeing, again, in response to the expert controls

03:21and other pressure from China on Japanese businesses domestically

03:24is that they are packing up and leaving and the other companies are leaving.

03:29And what this does to the Chinese economy is it affects the 6 million

03:32or 7 million Chinese citizens that won't have jobs when Japanese leave.

03:36What is the role of the U.S. in this ongoing diplomatic row that is now turning into an economic one?

03:41We know that Trump plans on meeting Xi Jinping in April.

03:44We know that Japan is pushing for a meeting between him and Senai before that.

03:48It has tested, I think, the U.S.-Japan alliance,

03:51as well as the, I think, the faith that many countries have in the United States

03:56in intervening in the region.

03:57There is an expectation that President Trump will visit Beijing

04:01and that there will be some kind of economic deal.

04:05For Prime Minister Takechi, she wants to meet Mr. Trump.

04:08She wants to put on the table the challenges in the region

04:10and re-emphasize that in order to deal with those challenges and make America great,

04:16Japan is that key partner.

04:19And without Japan, Takechi is going to tell the story

04:23that Mr. Trump will not be able to make America great.

04:26And I think in many areas she's correct in terms of diplomatic engagement

04:32with China and Southeast Asia and India.

04:35There's no better partner than Japan because of its geographic proximity,

04:40its understanding of the region and strong relations with Southeast Asia and India

04:44and very nuanced relations with China.

04:48And if the United States is interested in a trade deal

04:50or if it's interested in constraining China,

04:53it absolutely needs Japan as a close partner.

04:58That was Professor Steven Nagy from the International Christian University.

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